Speculation: Expansion draft - who are you protecting?

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bodechek

Registered User
Oct 10, 2017
298
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My list

Matthews
Marner
Tavares
Rielly
Brodie
Muzzin
Hyman
Nylander
Campbell

WTF?! Damn board gave me an error and then I do a double post!
 

cupcrazyman

Stupid Sexy Flanders
Aug 14, 2006
16,404
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I have no idea why this discussion on Seattle taking Hyman is still going. From Seattle's perspective, they could:

1. Draft a good young defenseman like Travis Dermott.
2. If they're looking at too many defensemen available and not enough forwards, they can get a decent forward in Alex Kerfoot who is probably better than the forwards a lot of other teams will leave exposed.
3. Draft a UFA in Zach Hyman who we believe wants to stay in Toronto. In their two-day window to negotiate they would have to back up the truck to pay him because otherwise, why would Hyman sign there? He can wait two days, then sign with the Leafs or any other team of his choosing.

Why on Earth would Seattle choose option 3?

Somebody suggested that you could claim a UFA.That's why Hymans name has been brought up.Many people thought that the player has to be under nhl contract for 21/22 in order to be chosen in the expansion draft.
 

Nylanderthal

Registered User
Jun 9, 2010
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Ultimately, if Hyman's salary requirements escalate to the point of it having to be a choice between Nylander and him (possibly somewhere in the mid 4s).. it really doesn't make sense to keep him as much as he is a "glue guy" on tihs team.

Realistically, Tanner Pearson is a reasonable comparable (40+ points 3 in out of the last 4 completed seasons, including 21 goals and 45 points in 69 games before covid hit), and he just signed for $3.25m x 3 years. It seems logical that when dealing with players of this type at age 28, a 4th or 5th year would be considered a risk by the team; although likely in better economic and cap circumstances.

Assuming Hyman comes in around the Kerfoot range, it's simply going to mean the door for Alex Kerfoot, with Hyman's current salary available for a 3rd line C.
Kerfoot doesn’t necessarily have to go anywhere next season if you can get Hyman to take a deal that has an aav around 3.5-4. Simply shave a few bucks off Simmonds’ roster spot and Freddie. Hyman already makes 2.25 so you only need 1.5-2m to cover his raise.
 

Nylanderthal

Registered User
Jun 9, 2010
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Depends on which protection framework they choose, 7F+3D or 4F+4D.

If they've decided 7F+3D then they should be loading up on forwards with some term.
There’s no conceivable reason right now to go 7-3-1 you’re exposing Holl or Muzzin in that scenario. the forward upgrade would have to be substantial to justify that sort of risk imo.
 

great

Registered User
Apr 14, 2018
291
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Why did this darn expansion draft have to happend during covid? It just makes everything even more difficult
 

justloveleafs

Registered User
Mar 12, 2021
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Paris Ontario
Strongly disagree. Hyman fits like a glove no matter what line he plays on and that to me suggests that he is likely to fit like a glove on any team he plays on.

There was an interesting discussion on overdrive recently on the possibility of Hyman being on the Olympic team. We'll see but at this point in time, I'd say that he is more likely to be chosen for the team then Tavares, would you agree or disagree? We'll see but if he is picked, that would decimate your theory that much of his value comes from his fit with Marner and Matthews.



Source? Like I said, there is no definition so everyone can choose their own meaning. If I had to do it I'd probably say it has to do with making the biggest contribution to getting/maintaining possession and by that standard, Hyman concedes nothing to his linemates. And if you look at your criteria, there's really not much of a gap between Hyman and the other two either. Point shares is an interesting stat, by that one the three players (Hyman, Tavares, Nylander) are in a virtual tie.



IMO deciding who's best has nothing to do with what label you put on them (playmaker, glue guy, scorer etc.). Do you really think Hyman would be easy to replace?

I look at it this way - if we were to begin a PO series tomorrow against a good team, WPG, COL, TB, whoever and you had to to choose play the series without either Nylander, Tavares or Hyman, who would you choose. That's how you decide who the best player is today. And I'll bet that if we were to set up a poll on this today, the results would be ... interesting. Hard to predict the results but if you think that a strong majority would choose to play without Hyman, I'm pretty sure you'd be wrong. In fact I would guess that most people would say that as of right now, we need Hyman more then the other two.

As far as fleeting career, wear and tear etc., I agree with you there. I'm just talking about value as of right now.

Excellent post. Again, I say, he is the 2021 Bob Gainey. A player, that for most fans of the Canadiens was in the shadow of the great offensive talents on those teams.

Yet, the architect of Soviet hockey, who after the 72 series, gained a ton of respect from North American hockey fans, SHOCKED, these new found fans by declaring Bob Gainey as the most complete player in the game. Meaning, in the world.

People were like what? Who is Bob Gainey lol.

Totally agree, if I was given those three players, yes, I wouldn't want to be without any of them, yet , I would have Hyman in my two.

Remember, that Hyman had a serious knee injury, I was worried about him to be frank. Zach came back, and typically, he came back better. I have to give Babcock credit for a few things, but man, would Hyman even be with the Leafs, were it not for Babcock's vision of Hyman's abilities, plural?
 
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kevsh

Registered User
Nov 28, 2018
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You can't protect those 4 defensemen, if you look at the link on the OP it says 1 of the green check defensemen must be exposed.

Dermott can be convinced to extend before the draft for the purpose of being exposed. Why would he agree to do that? If taken he has a chance to move up into the top 4, something he's not likely to do with the Leafs anytime soon. As much as Dermott might love it in Toronto, few players are going to dismiss an opportunity for an expanded role (and bigger payday down the road).

Also, it gives Travis some leverage on the contract. He can probably get a bit more than he would have otherwise, dollars and perhaps term. Noodles was talking on Overdrive about the very same thing when he was signed to be exposed. Not every player would agree to it but Dubas would likely try.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
78,654
53,126
Trade Rielly. (He's got value but is no where near as good as people think imo) Protect Brodie, Muzzin, Holl, and Dermott. Re-sign Hyman.

You only move Rielly if you have a back pocket deal with Dougie Hamilton (UFA) this summer:

-Andersen walks
-Split 50% of Andersen's money on a raise for Hyman.
-Take 50% of Andersen's money plus Rielly for Dougie Hamilton.
 

moon111

Registered User
Oct 18, 2014
2,890
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No one is taking Kerfoot get a grip folks ... Dermy will be gone unless Dubie trades a pick for Seattle to take Kerfoot ... to me 2021 picks are useless so i would trade a pick to keep Dermy as young defenders are hard to give up on
Points/60
Steve Stamkos 1.82
Anze Kopitar 1.80
Alexander Kerfoot 1.77
John Tavares 1.66
Sidney Crosby 1.62

...Think Kerfoot gets snatched up real quick.
 
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Maplebeasts

I See Demons!!!!!
Oct 26, 2014
20,792
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Barrie, Ontario
You only move Rielly if you have a back pocket deal with Dougie Hamilton (UFA) this summer:

-Andersen walks
-Split 50% of Andersen's money on a raise for Hyman.
-Take 50% of Andersen's money plus Rielly for Dougie Hamilton.
I would do this instantly. I'm just not a fan of Rielly's game. He's still really bad defensively and I don't think he's as offensively gifted as his point totals would indicate. So many times he'll just tap the puck over to Matthews or Marner and let them do the work. He also really sucks at getting the puck through on net.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,969
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Excellent post. Again, I say, he is the 2021 Bob Gainey. A player, that for most fans of the Canadiens was in the shadow of the great offensive talents on those teams.

Yet, the architect of Soviet hockey, who after the 72 series, gained a ton of respect from North American hockey fans, SHOCKED, these new found fans by declaring Bob Gainey as the most complete player in the game. Meaning, in the world.

People were like what? Who is Bob Gainey lol.

Totally agree, if I was given those three players, yes, I wouldn't want to be without any of them, yet , I would have Hyman in my two.

Remember, that Hyman had a serious knee injury, I was worried about him to be frank. Zach came back, and typically, he came back better. I have to give Babcock credit for a few things, but man, would Hyman even be with the Leafs, were it not for Babcock's vision of Hyman's abilities, plural?

I still remember the Tarasov quote though I can't find it anywhere on the web (too old I guess):

"Finally the perfect hockey player. And he's a Canutzky!. Incredible!".
 

conFABulator

Registered User
Apr 11, 2021
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722
Assuming that we don't alter the roster between now and the expansion draft, or at least not in any ways that impact the decisions I actually think this one is pretty straightforward and has been pretty telegraphed by management for a year or so....

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares

Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie
Holl

Campbell

...I would imagine this means we lose one of:

Kerfoot (useful player, but we could re-allocate his salary elsewhere and fill the gap from within (Engvall as 3C, Robertson as top-six, Anderson-type as bottom six, veteran UFA at league minimum)
Engvall (useful player, but if that is all the expansion draft costs us then we did a lot better than other teams)
Dermott (useful, developing player...this one sort of hurts but we need a spot for Sandin or Liljegren...again, if this is all we lose...it certainly could have been worse)

After the expansion draft and before free agency opens we re-sign Hyman ($4M to 4.5M depending on term) with the money freed up from Andersen. We also re-sign any veterans we want back at or near league minimum (Spezza, Bogosian, Simmonds, Galchenyuk, Thornton). During UFA season we sign UFAs on low-cost, low-term deals.

The biggest off-season priority will be a 1b goalie to tandem with Campbell...could be via trade, or UFA (NHL or International)...we should have 3 or 4 million to spend on this acquisition.

Why would we consider any plan other than the above?
 
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Brobust

Registered User
Sep 29, 2017
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4+4

Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander
Rielly, Muzzin, Brodie, Holl

Options for Seattle: UFA Hyman, Kerfoot, Dermott. Despite what some people may think, all those losses are easily survivable.
 

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
22,684
11,058
I’m not sure why a lot of posters say Hyman is exempt from the expansion draft.

Pending Unrestricted Free Agents

There will be several players exposed by their teams that will be “Pending Unrestricted Free Agents” (UFA). The scenario is that a player will have just played the last year of his NHL contract with his team and will become an Unrestricted Free Agent roughly one week after the Expansion Draft. The Kraken will have a 48-hour window before their selections are made to talk and negotiate with any of these UFAs. An example here is where a player like Taylor Hall is left unprotected by Buffalo. Seattle could discuss a potential contract term for a new deal with Hall. If they reach an agreement, Seattle would then choose Hall in the Expansion Draft. If they cannot reach a deal, Seattle would find some other player to select from Buffalo.
2021-NHL-Expansion-Window-2021-12-20.png
 

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
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You only move Rielly if you have a back pocket deal with Dougie Hamilton (UFA) this summer:

-Andersen walks
-Split 50% of Andersen's money on a raise for Hyman.
-Take 50% of Andersen's money plus Rielly for Dougie Hamilton.

Hamilton wouldn't be the only guy, but I'd certainly be in the for side of such a transaction. Ekholm would be another guy, if he'd become available.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
78,654
53,126
I’m not sure why a lot of posters say Hyman is exempt from the expansion draft.

Pending Unrestricted Free Agents

There will be several players exposed by their teams that will be “Pending Unrestricted Free Agents” (UFA). The scenario is that a player will have just played the last year of his NHL contract with his team and will become an Unrestricted Free Agent roughly one week after the Expansion Draft. The Kraken will have a 48-hour window before their selections are made to talk and negotiate with any of these UFAs. An example here is where a player like Taylor Hall is left unprotected by Buffalo. Seattle could discuss a potential contract term for a new deal with Hall. If they reach an agreement, Seattle would then choose Hall in the Expansion Draft. If they cannot reach a deal, Seattle would find some other player to select from Buffalo.
2021-NHL-Expansion-Window-2021-12-20.png

Hyman isn’t exempt but if you work out a contract with him before and sign it the first day of free agency you don’t need to worry of Seattle scooped him up and held his rights for a week.
 

shaner8989

Registered User
Aug 6, 2005
22,995
4,915
Go 7 and 3

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares
Hyman
??
??


Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie

no way in hell I’m protecting Holl over Hyman
 
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conFABulator

Registered User
Apr 11, 2021
730
722
Go 7 and 3

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares
Hyman
??
??


Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie

no way in hell I’m protecting Holl over Hyman

I don't think anyone here would protect a signed Holl over a signed Hyman, but the brilliance (we will see if it works out this way) of Dubas' approach is that Hyman is a UFA. We don't have to protect him and if Seattle selects him he doesn't have to sign with them...he can sign with us when UFA season opens. I think there would be an agreement with Hyman in place, without being signed to make this all possible.

There is a reason the Leafs have so many UFAs and expiring contracts (Hyman, Andersen, Simmonds, Thornton, Spezza, Bogosian) this offseason and that reason is the expansion draft.
 

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
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Hyman isn’t exempt but if you work out a contract with him before and sign it the first day of free agency you don’t need to worry of Seattle scooped him up and held his rights for a week.

Unless Seattle then offers 10 million more over the span of the contract. He might change his mind.
 

TheGreatOne11

Registered User
Jun 29, 2009
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Toronto
We either have a back pocket deal for him to sign or we don’t. If Seattle is going to give him $10 million they can have him and I’ll be happy for Zach Hyman that he earned that money.

Agreed. But he wants to win and loves Toronto. Back pocket deal 100%, now having said that, if we win the cup this year that money starts looking a lot more tempting to Hyman.
 

kb

Registered User
Aug 28, 2009
15,282
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We either have a back pocket deal for him to sign or we don’t. If Seattle is going to give him $10 million they can have him and I’ll be happy for Zach Hyman that he earned that money.
Yeah, the propeller-head conspiracy theorists look to the worst case scenario, and spout their gloom and doom.

I'm sure Hyman wants to leave his hometown for the uncertainty of an expansion franchise.
 

ponder

Registered User
Jul 11, 2007
16,955
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Vancouver
Agreed with OP’s picks. Expose Dermott, Kerfoot, Engvall, Hutch - Seattle probably take Dermott. That’s fine, Sandin should be ready to replace him next year.

Have “wink-wink nudge-nudge” deals with Hyman, Spezza and Bogo to extend them after the expansion draft, but before free agency opens. There’s a small chance Seattle take Hyman even if he’s unsigned, but ... probably not, huge risk on their end that they’d immediately lose him to free agency.

As for our other UFAs, Foligno we probably can’t afford to re-sign, Andersen/Thornton/Simmonds/Galchenyuk/Hutton we probably don’t want to re-sign (replace them with prospects, trades or other UFAs).
 
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