Expansion draft prediction

[LeafChief]

Ottawa would not have to pay LV to take Ryan. Regardless of what some think, he's still a legit top 6 winger and that's going to be something that LV has a very hard time acquiring. Him being overpaid means nothing to them. By the time they're going to be ready to compete, they'd have to trade him anyway - which in today's world means retaining cap.

Why does Ottawa want Vegas to take him then?

Oh - because his contract is horrendous and he's played good hockey for a month of the last 16.

If Vegas is taking Ryan, they'll be getting picks/prospects with him (and they should do it).

 

[IHaveNoCreativity]

I can confirm that the Wild would move out Parise if there's a deal, my sense after talking to a few people there, is that they'd part with him. They don't consider him a top 6 forward for them right now.

I'll post my expansion draft team here, I don't expect Vatanen to be available unless a deal is made.

 

[BillDineen]

 

[derriko]

I don't see WSH parting with Neivurth even if they do retool. Grub's isnt ready for full time work on a contender imo. So I don't see them swinging a deal with Vegas to give him up.

As for Colorado, if Pickard is traded / protected, I would go with Grigorenko. Think theres some untapped potential left there and he could be a middle 6 center / winger.

Gelinas is midly enticing, but on the path to bust territory. He would be my 4th choice at best.

 

[jlockhart89]

I don't see WSH parting with Neivurth even if they do retool. Grub's isnt ready for full time work on a contender imo. So I don't see them swinging a deal with Vegas to give him up.

As for Colorado, if Pickard is traded / protected, I would go with Grigorenko. Think theres some untapped potential left there and he could be a middle 6 center / winger.

Gelinas is midly enticing, but on the path to bust territory. He would be my 4th choice at best.

I think you're thinking Holtby. Michael Neuvirth is Philadelphia's backup/1B

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I don't see WSH parting with Neivurth even if they do retool. Grub's isnt ready for full time work on a contender imo. So I don't see them swinging a deal with Vegas to give him up.

As for Colorado, if Pickard is traded / protected, I would go with Grigorenko. Think theres some untapped potential left there and he could be a middle 6 center / winger.

Gelinas is midly enticing, but on the path to bust territory. He would be my 4th choice at best.

All year it seemed like COL might try to get Beauchemin to waiver or buy him out, but realistically what's the point? Their 5th best and beyond forwards are so terrible, if they still feel Beachemin can contribute he is worth more than them. With this in mind, players like Grigorenko might be exposed. Maybe they protect Neito as their 4th guy if they end up going 4-4 as a result of Beauchemin's NMC.

Not counting Pickard, Grigorenko has the highest upside among anybody COL might have exposed. Still, even then the guy is 23 and probably won't ever put it together. If Pickard isn't on the table, outside of gambling on Grigrenko the best LV could hope for from COL would in most cases be getting a depth player.

Comeau is probably the best pick Vegas can make from Colorado in terms of who can contribute now. He's paid fair value for a third liner but is a bit of a commitment with a 2.4M cap hit.

I can't see COL protecting Soderberg. No way Vegas wastes nearly 5M in cap space on him, especially now that we know Vegas is trying to strategically gain assets or taking bad contracts. At the same time, if they are thin down the middle it's hard to imagine Soderberg wouldn't bounce back with a change of scenery. I wouldn't take him, but I understand he shouldn't be anywhere near as bad as he was this season for COL.

Wiercioch is a darkhorse. He's never quite put it together in Ottawa but showed glimmers of being a decent player. Given the garbage heap that COL has available, if Pickard isn't on the table, Wiercioch wouldn't be a bad pick.

 

[derriko]

I think you're thinking Holtby. Michael Neuvirth is Philadelphia's backup/1B

Well, I was only 5 years off haha.

I think there's better options than Neuvirth, and better choices on Philly for players.

If Vegas truly does want to be competitive right out the gate, Read, Del Zotto, and even Weise would be better choices.

If you want to go the younger route, they are exposing some decent prospects. Weal, Laughton, Cousins are all decent with potential for more.

 

[derriko]

Hearing trades will start to be announced this coming Monday and Tuesday! Exciting times ahead.

 

[keon]

I think there will be a few significant trades with teams wanting to go the 7 - 3 - 1 route yet still keep their #4 & #5 defenseman. Teams like Nashville, Anaheim, Pittsburg, Islanders and others are in a win-now mode. They may trade draft picks to maintain their current squads rather than trade the extra defensemen away for picks/prospects. Call me Captain Obvious.

 

[VanIslander]

I think there will be a few significant trades with teams wanting to go the 7 - 3 - 1 route yet still keep their #4 & #5 defenseman. Teams like ... Pittsburg,... They may trade draft picks to maintain their current squads rather than trade the extra defensemen away for picks/prospects. Call me Captain Obvious.

Like Pittsburgh has four or five defensemen they want to protect.

 

[NorthCoast]

Curious...

Has anyone proposed auctioning off the first expansion pick. IE: offer the first expansion pick to another team and they can select any player from those available for their own purposes.

Depending on who is available, what do you think this is worth? A #1 in the entry draft? More if a bidding war got going?


I guess this is how any decent Gm is probably looking at it anyways. That any exposed player is available to them if they make LV the right offer.

 

[Mike Jones]

Curious...

Has anyone proposed auctioning off the first expansion pick. IE: offer the first expansion pick to another team and they can select any player from those available for their own purposes.

Depending on who is available, what do you think this is worth? A #1 in the entry draft? More if a bidding war got going?


I guess this is how any decent Gm is probably looking at it anyways. That any exposed player is available to them if they make LV the right offer.

I don't think this expansion will have rounds. I think Vegas will simply review the available players, make whatever trades and signings they can and submit their final list at the appointed time.

First round choices in previous expansions probably weren't worth all that much as the quality of available players wasn't at the level of the current expansion.

 

[Hivemind]

Read some bad news for those hoping we grab Orlov from WSH. He is an RFA so it may be a negotiation tactic, but his is in contract talks with CSKA in the KHL.

I thought he would be a perfect fit for the Knights. 25 years old, solid offensive production from the third pair, and more room to grow. I think he would excel with more ice time and become a very solid 2nd pairing d-man. That would hurt to not get a chance at picking him.

Not to mention he is Russian and McPhee loves those guys, and he would be a person who could speak Russian with Ship and help him transition over to NA

Zero chance that Washington exposes Orlov anyway.

 

[derriko]

Zero chance that Washington exposes Orlov anyway.

Really? He's a bottom pairing d-man for them. I know he's young and all, but if they re-sign Shattenkirk (I know it's unlikely) there's no way they protect Orlov.

 

[Hivemind]

Really? He's a bottom pairing d-man for them. I know he's young and all, but if they re-sign Shattenkirk (I know it's unlikely) there's no way they protect Orlov.

Orlov is a top pairing defenseman for Washington. He played with Matt Niskanen for most of the season. He also led the entire Capitals in EVTOI/GP in both the regular season and the playoffs.

This past year their defense group was:
Orlov - Niskanen
Alzner - Carlson
Orpik - Shattenkirk/Schmidt

During most of they playoffs they ran 7 defensemen, with all off Alzner, Orpik, and Schmidt rotating.


According to GMBM's post-season presser, they're planning on having a top 4 of Orlov, Niskanen, Schmidt, and Carlson next season. All signs point towards Washington protecting Niskanen, Carlson, and Orlov. There's very little indication that Washington has any intention of keeping Shattenkirk, who has expressed his desire to be a #1 defenseman. With both Niskanen and Carlson in front of him, there's no chance of that happening in Washington. Moreover, Washington will not have anything even resembling the cap space to keep him (doubly so if they keep Oshie). Further still, GMBM also mentioned the possibility of getting a long term deal done with Orlov this off-season.

 

[derriko]

I don't see why this would happen, but Minny might leave Staal unprotected if they don't trade a defender.

What a get. A 1C who has a ton of wear and tear on him, but would be the perfect stop gap.

Staal
Ship
6th overall who will take one of their places when those above two decline.

 

[Jonas1235]

I'd have to believe that Vegas wants to save a lot of money for July 1st, give out just enough to get to the floor. Then go for the jugular next summer.

I wouldn't be shocked if they already have a deal for Zucker.

 

[Vegas Mac]

I'd have to believe that Vegas wants to save a lot of money for July 1st, give out just enough to get to the floor. Then go for the jugular next summer.

I wouldn't be shocked if they already have a deal for Zucker.

They will take two or three bad contracts and use that compensation for either players or draft picks. McPhee already confirmed what we all knew there.

They will sign one top six forward in FA. That's a high likelihood I think. They also might sign multiple FAs and flip some of them to other teams for pick compensation.

Lastly they'll load the team with third line types with maybe up to a few who qualify as second line types. If the moves above allow for stacking a top line, they might be better than many expect.

McPhee has a ridiculous amount of options to stack this thing right. So yeah, if things go well I can see them "going for it" next year. Just depends on how much of the compensation he works will end up being draft picks. If he focuses on loading the minor league system with draft picks I'm not going to criticize it, it'll hurt a little more year one but come years 3 and 4 we'll be in business.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Getting in my guess before it happens.

ANA: RD - Sami Vatanen
ARI: RD - Luke Schenn
BOS: RD - Adam McQuaid
BUF: RW - Tyler Ennis
CGY: RW - Emile Poirier
GAR: RW - Lee Stempniak
CHI: RD - Trevor Van Riemsdyk
COL: G - Calvin Pickard
CBJ: G - Joonas Korpisalo
DAL: C - Cody Eakin
DET: C - Riley Sheahan
EDM: LD - Griffin Reinhart
FLA: RD - Alex Petrovic
LA: LD - Derek Forbort
MIN: C - Eric Staal
MTL: LD - Nathan Beaulieu
NSH: C - Calle Jarnkrok
NJ: G - Scott Wedgewood
NYI: C - Ryan Strome
NYR: G - Antti Raanta
OTT: LD - Marc Methot
PHI: G - Anthony Stolarz
PIT: G - Mark Andre Fleury
SJ: LD - Mirco Mueller
STL: RW - Nail Yakupov
TBL: LW - Alex Killorn
TOR: LW - Kerby Rychel
VAN: C - Brendan Gaunce
WSH: G - Philipp Grubauer
WPG: C - Adam Lowry

 

[Lempo]

They will sign one top six forward in FA. That's a high likelihood I think. They also might sign multiple FAs and flip some of them to other teams for pick compensation.

I've been thinking about the possibilities of signing FAs a plenty ever since someone pointed out to me that due to the exclusive 72 hour negotiation window McPhee could be acting as a facilitator and the middle-man for unprotected-FA-to-third-party-team movements.

It just feels tremendously challenging that, with the time restraints and all the other stuff on their plate simultaneously, Vegas could allocate the needed time and effort to have set up such a contract with salary, years, salary for a particular year of the contract, signing bonuses that take the lock-out in consideration and movement clauses, that a FA would be comfortable enough to sign it, because the FA will then be stuck with that contract for the years to come, and there's also the slight risk that the subsequent "gentlemen's agreement" trade to an agreeable third party team will fall through for some reason.

Mo' money is obviously the lubricant that can ease up with these worries, but an expensive contract is obviously not so tempting tradebait for the third party team and the compensation coming back to Vegas won't probably be quite as good in that case.

Any thoughts? Should Vegas be specifically targeting FAs that are open (=downright eager) to leaving their current team for example, because of ice-time, too much competition or such reasons?

 

[oilers4life5]

What would we have to give you guys to take Pouliot?

 

[airbus220]

I've been thinking about the possibilities of signing FAs a plenty ever since someone pointed out to me that due to the exclusive 72 hour negotiation window McPhee could be acting as a facilitator and the middle-man for unprotected-FA-to-third-party-team movements.

there's also the slight risk that the subsequent "gentlemen's agreement" trade to an agreeable third party team will fall through for some reason.

There won't be gentlemen agreements. There could be a trade with the condition to trade the signed UFA.
The problem is we only have 10 draft spots without contract and then there is the draft cap, there might not be much cap left if McPhee wants to take few bad contracts.
I think we will sign UFA only to play for us. We have the chance to talk in advance and mostly should sign them in July.

 

[LTIR]

Getting in my guess before it happens.

ANA: RD - Sami Vatanen
ARI: RD - Luke Schenn
BOS: RD - Adam McQuaid
BUF: RW - Tyler Ennis
CGY: RW - Emile Poirier
GAR: RW - Lee Stempniak
CHI: RD - Trevor Van Riemsdyk
COL: G - Calvin Pickard
CBJ: G - Joonas Korpisalo
DAL: C - Cody Eakin
DET: C - Riley Sheahan
EDM: LD - Griffin Reinhart
FLA: RD - Alex Petrovic
LA: LD - Derek Forbort
MIN: C - Eric Staal
MTL: LD - Nathan Beaulieu
NSH: C - Calle Jarnkrok
NJ: G - Scott Wedgewood
NYI: C - Ryan Strome
NYR: G - Antti Raanta
OTT: LD - Marc Methot
PHI: G - Anthony Stolarz
PIT: G - Mark Andre Fleury
SJ: LD - Mirco Mueller
STL: RW - Nail Yakupov
TBL: LW - Alex Killorn
TOR: LW - Kerby Rychel
VAN: C - Brendan Gaunce
WSH: G - Philipp Grubauer
WPG: C - Adam Lowry

Why would LV pick up 7 goalies on 1 way deal?
If they are picking MAF and Grubauer then at most they will pick 2 more goalies not 5.

Also, between ANA, ARI, MIN, CHI and FLA they will have their RD shored up.

Instead of 3 extra goalies it would be smarter to get LDs or forwards.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Getting in my guess before it happens.

ANA: RD - Sami Vatanen
ARI: RD - Luke Schenn
BOS: RD - Adam McQuaid
BUF: RW - Tyler Ennis
CGY: RW - Emile Poirier
GAR: RW - Lee Stempniak
CHI: RD - Trevor Van Riemsdyk
COL: G - Calvin Pickard
CBJ: G - Joonas Korpisalo
DAL: C - Cody Eakin
DET: C - Riley Sheahan
EDM: LD - Griffin Reinhart
FLA: RD - Alex Petrovic
LA: LD - Derek Forbort
MIN: C - Eric Staal
MTL: LD - Nathan Beaulieu
NSH: C - Calle Jarnkrok
NJ: G - Scott Wedgewood
NYI: C - Ryan Strome
NYR: G - Antti Raanta
OTT: LD - Marc Methot
PHI: G - Anthony Stolarz
PIT: G - Mark Andre Fleury
SJ: LD - Mirco Mueller
STL: RW - Nail Yakupov
TBL: LW - Alex Killorn
TOR: LW - Kerby Rychel
VAN: C - Brendan Gaunce
WSH: G - Philipp Grubauer
WPG: C - Adam Lowry

Why would Anaheim let Vatanen go for free when they can trade him and only be liable to lose a depth player to Vegas?

 

[HanSolo]

Getting in my guess before it happens.

ANA: RD - Sami Vatanen
ARI: RD - Luke Schenn
BOS: RD - Adam McQuaid
BUF: RW - Tyler Ennis
CGY: RW - Emile Poirier
GAR: RW - Lee Stempniak
CHI: RD - Trevor Van Riemsdyk
COL: G - Calvin Pickard
CBJ: G - Joonas Korpisalo
DAL: C - Cody Eakin
DET: C - Riley Sheahan
EDM: LD - Griffin Reinhart
FLA: RD - Alex Petrovic
LA: LD - Derek Forbort
MIN: C - Eric Staal
MTL: LD - Nathan Beaulieu
NSH: C - Calle Jarnkrok
NJ: G - Scott Wedgewood
NYI: C - Ryan Strome
NYR: G - Antti Raanta
OTT: LD - Marc Methot
PHI: G - Anthony Stolarz
PIT: G - Mark Andre Fleury
SJ: LD - Mirco Mueller
STL: RW - Nail Yakupov
TBL: LW - Alex Killorn
TOR: LW - Kerby Rychel
VAN: C - Brendan Gaunce
WSH: G - Philipp Grubauer
WPG: C - Adam Lowry

Really doubt Vatanen isn't traded