Speculation: Expansion Draft - Part II

[ps241]

Well the big one for me that I know that the Jets like is Raanta. Grubaur is a RFA I believe that will also be left exposed. I'm not sure who else.

That is tough I could see Vegas wanting both of those guys. Wow I would kill for Raanta he has one year left at a really affordable cap hit of $1 million before he becomes a UFA. Last 2 seasons in New York he has posted a .919 and .922 save %

He has never got a shot to be the clear cut starter since he has had to backstop King Henrik and Crawford but I bet he could do it.

 

[surixon]

That is tough I could see Vegas wanting both of those guys. Wow I would kill for Raanta he has one year left at a really affordable cap hit of $1 million before he becomes a UFA. Last 2 seasons in New York he has posted a .919 and .922 save %

He has never got a shot to be the clear cut starter since he has had to backstop King Henrik and Crawford but I bet he could do it.

He screams the next Talbot, Andersen, Jones to me. I think Mike Condon will also need to be exposed and one of Reimer and Loungo. It's really hard to see how Vegas picks. But the fact is they have to pick 3 goalies which likely leaves one that they will deal.

 

[Weezeric]

Just spitballing here... but if enstrom waived his nmc for the expansion draft and tells vegas he would refuse to waive it at the deadline, is there any way they would select him? It's basically one year of an aging D, then nothing, instead of someone like Dano on an elc with upside.

 

[surixon]

Just spitballing here... but if enstrom waived his nmc for the expansion draft and tells vegas he would refuse to waive it at the deadline, is there any way they would select him? It's basically one year of an aging D, then nothing, instead of someone like Dano on an elc with upside.

I don't see them having any interest in him period. Even with us being able to protect 7-3-1 they would get a solid young forward like Dano or Copp. I think they'd find both more appealing than Toby given where he is at in his career.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't see them having any interest in him period. Even with us being able to protect 7-3-1 they would get a solid young forward like Dano or Copp. I think they'd find both more appealing than Toby given where he is at in his career.

Agreed. I don't think Enstrom gets picked either if he waived. A $5.75 cap hit for a fading pending UFA after next season. I think it will be Dano as the odd man out going 7-3-1 and LV sees him as a better long term option.

 

[drumzan]

Doesn't Vegas have to draft a certain amount of salary in the expansion draft? That may force them to take a guy like Toby, even if they're not that interested...just to reach the salary floor.

 

[PhilJets]

In all

Jets will

Lose
Either

LOWRY or Perrault

One of them gets expose.

ArmiaCoppDano, matthias.
LV is not picking one of these guys over those 2.
Even if best case scenario is they pick dano. If jets throw in a pick, maybe.

Or if jets decided to go protect 3 dman. Then Myers over perrault and lowry.

Jets d are thin, myers is not moving.
Perrault is middle 6 good but Jets got so much dynamic offensively now, that after this year he is redundant..

A bottom 6 guy than can chip in is great. I want to see him a playoff game again. Jets will need him to keep other teams in line.
I believe this guy wears an A if he stays with the jets in the long run.

 

[truck]

In all

Jets will

Lose
Either

LOWRY or Perrault

One of them gets expose.

ArmiaCoppDano, matthias.
LV is not picking one of these guys over those 2.
Even if best case scenario is they pick dano. If jets throw in a pick, maybe.

Or if jets decided to go protect 3 dman. Then Myers over perrault and lowry.

Jets d are thin, myers is not moving.
Perrault is middle 6 good but Jets got so much dynamic offensively now, that after this year he is redundant..

A bottom 6 guy than can chip in is great. I want to see him a playoff game again. Jets will need him to keep other teams in line.
I believe this guy wears an A if he stays with the jets in the long run.

IF you move him down, Perreault becomes a bottom 6 guy who can chip in MORE.

 

[D1G]

That is tough I could see Vegas wanting both of those guys. Wow I would kill for Raanta he has one year left at a really affordable cap hit of $1 million before he becomes a UFA. Last 2 seasons in New York he has posted a .919 and .922 save %

He has never got a shot to be the clear cut starter since he has had to backstop King Henrik and Crawford but I bet he could do it.

I feel getting a cheap goalie only benefits us if we spend the money saved on making the team better elsewhere. Which probably won't happen. I feel we should all be hoping for a real goalie.

 

[10Ducky10]

Just spitballing here... but if enstrom waived his nmc for the expansion draft and tells vegas he would refuse to waive it at the deadline, is there any way they would select him? It's basically one year of an aging D, then nothing, instead of someone like Dano on an elc with upside.

I think if he waives it, it is gone.

 

[Gm0ney]

Here are the goalies I think will be available (not including pending UFAs like Bishop, Condon, Darling, etc.):

ANA - Tokarski
ARI - Domingue
BOS - Khudobin, Subban
BUF - Ullmark
CAL - McCollum
CAR - Lack
CHI - Glass, Carruth
COL - Pickard
CLB - Korpisalo, Forsberg, Dansk
DAL - Niemi, Kiviaho, Lagace
DET - Howard (or Mrazek, but I think they protect him), Coreau, Pasquale
EDM - Brossoit
FLA - Luongo, Brittain
LAK - Zatkoff, Campbell
MIN - Stalock
MTL - Montoya
NAS - Mazanec
NJD - Wedgewood
NYI - Halak, Berube, Gibson
NYR - Raanta, Hellberg, Skapski
OTT - Hammond, Driedger
PHI - Stolarz
PIT - Unknown (no eligible goalies other than Murray - they'll either sign one to expose after buying out/trading Fleury or they'll make a deal with Vegas to not take exposed Murray).
SJS - Dell
STL - Hutton, Binnington
TBL - Gudlevskis
TOR - Sparks, Bibeau
VAN - Bachman
WAS - Grubauer, Copley
WPG - Hutchinson

I think I take Grubauer - Washington's best other player likely to be exposed is 35 year old defensive defenseman Brooks Orpik.

And Raanta - though NYR's best likely exposed are Klein (unless they do something with Girardi or Staal's NMCs) and Fest/Hayes/Grabner/Lindberg at F.

And Howard? Detroit's going to have some decent skaters exposed as well - Helm, maybe Ouellet or Kronwall?

They have to take 3. Maybe they like a skater over one of those goalies above - or they make a deal to not take one.

And then there's the UFAs - but why bother with a big name if you can get Howard, Raanta and Grubauer. One of those guys will be traded (or have to clear waivers) before the season...

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

jets should trade for 2 or 3 defencemen and a goalie prior to expansion draft and risk losing one of the them in draft. probably worth it as you will get players at discount and will not lose lowry or dano.

 

[Jimmyjets]

Here are the goalies I think will be available (not including pending UFAs like Bishop, Condon, Darling, etc.):

ANA - Tokarski
ARI - Domingue
BOS - Khudobin, Subban
BUF - Ullmark
CAL - McCollum
CAR - Lack
CHI - Glass, Carruth
COL - Pickard
CLB - Korpisalo, Forsberg, Dansk
DAL - Niemi, Kiviaho, Lagace
DET - Howard (or Mrazek, but I think they protect him), Coreau, Pasquale
EDM - Brossoit
FLA - Luongo, Brittain
LAK - Zatkoff, Campbell
MIN - Stalock
MTL - Montoya
NAS - Mazanec
NJD - Wedgewood
NYI - Halak, Berube, Gibson
NYR - Raanta, Hellberg, Skapski
OTT - Hammond, Driedger
PHI - Stolarz
PIT - Unknown (no eligible goalies other than Murray - they'll either sign one to expose after buying out/trading Fleury or they'll make a deal with Vegas to not take exposed Murray).
SJS - Dell
STL - Hutton, Binnington
TBL - Gudlevskis
TOR - Sparks, Bibeau
VAN - Bachman
WAS - Grubauer, Copley
WPG - Hutchinson

I think I take Grubauer - Washington's best other player likely to be exposed is 35 year old defensive defenseman Brooks Orpik.

And Raanta - though NYR's best likely exposed are Klein (unless they do something with Girardi or Staal's NMCs) and Fest/Hayes/Grabner/Lindberg at F.

And Howard? Detroit's going to have some decent skaters exposed as well - Helm, maybe Ouellet or Kronwall?

They have to take 3. Maybe they like a skater over one of those goalies above - or they make a deal to not take one.

And then there's the UFAs - but why bother with a big name if you can get Howard, Raanta and Grubauer. One of those guys will be traded (or have to clear waivers) before the season...

Great List. The only things I would add is that Phili may expose Neuvirth instead of Stolarz as I think they're really high on Stolarz.

I think instead of Howard Vegas will take Korpisalo from Columbus. Rolling with Grubauer and Korpisalo means you don't have an experienced goalie, but you have 2 crazy good shots at having someone that is/could be elite. Then they trade Raanta to us.

 

[Keystone]

jets should trade for 2 or 3 defencemen and a goalie prior to expansion draft and risk losing one of the them in draft. probably worth it as you will get players at discount and will not lose lowry or dano.

I thought the same, but it only applies if you compensate them more than what their next most likely player taken is worth. I don't see a lot of teams giving big discounts as there needs to a large drop off in talent that is taken.
Washington possibly
Grubauer maybe as next best is schmidt or Ellet or something. So maybe you can get him for a second rounder or petan?
Anaheim I suppose if Bieksa waves or is bought out, might ship a D out discounted.
After that I think it's Winnipeg that is the most likely to give discounts on Myers to get to 7-3-1.
Who else?

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I thought the same, but it only applies if you compensate them more than what their next most likely player taken is worth. I don't see a lot of teams giving big discounts as there needs to a large drop off in talent that is taken.
Washington possibly
Grubauer maybe as next best is schmidt or Ellet or something. So maybe you can get him for a second rounder or petan?
Anaheim I suppose if Bieksa waves or is bought out, might ship a D out discounted.
After that I think it's Winnipeg that is the most likely to give discounts on Myers to get to 7-3-1.
Who else?

vegas is not taking myers. damaged goods. may be a blessing if he is taken as jets can free up cash.

assume there will be many buyers at the expansion deadline which may push prices higher. Toronto will be a big buyer as they are well positioned to not lose anyone right now.

 

[scarbrow21]

vegas is not taking myers. damaged goods. may be a blessing if he is taken as jets can free up cash.

assume there will be many buyers at the expansion deadline which may push prices higher. Toronto will be a big buyer as they are well positioned to not lose anyone right now.

They would absolutely take him because if he's free that means Jets going 7-3-1 and their best available options are Dano, Myers, Mathias
(protected Scheif, Wheeler, Little, Perrault, Lowry, Copp, Armia Buff Enstrom Trouba)

I think if he waives it, it is gone.

Pretty sure you can Waive NMC in two ways...one, directly to the team you're being traded to and that's it (or in this case claimed via expansion)
or two waive the NMC outright.

So pretty sure Toby could JUST waive it for the expansion draft which if he did vegas wouldn't take him because his only value to them would be trading at the deadline to a contender for picks/prospects

 

[scarbrow21]

Sorry should have prefaced my previous post....

If Myers is available they take him even with his injury last year because RHD (especially top 4 RHD) are the most valuable currency in the NHL right now and they could just trade him to a desperate team and retain salary and get back more picks/prospects for him. Myers is way more valuable than Dano...and I think VERY highly of Dano

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have been of the mindset that Petan and a draft pick are going to Vegas for one of the three goalies Vegas will get and ensure Vegas takes Dano.

I also agree that usages where odd at the end of the year even for Maurice.

I think you saw what his ideal top 9 is in the last game of the year. I think they like Copp at C on the 4th and will look to bring in a Maurice type vet 4th line RW to kill penalties and crash and bang.

I was thinking of a right shot Matthias for that some time ago. Assuming Armia is 3RW we don't have another RW for the 4th unless Dano plays that side. Maurice has already shown he doesn't want Dano on the right - and he doesn't seem to want Dano.

We have a couple of possible 4RW's on the Moose who could be given a shot at that spot. But we do have a gap at RW that could be filled in FA.

Connor/Perreault - Lowry - Armia for the 3rd line long term. Matthias to the 4th line. I don't think that is optimal but I don't hate it either.

Once we accept that Maurice isn't going to use Dano and Petan to their best advantage whether they are here or not it becomes easy to move them. With them gone then:
Matthias - Copp - Lipon/Kosmachuk/FA xxx and I say the same about the 4th line. It isn't my first choice but it isn't bad. That is a line that can play 8-10 min, maybe some PK. That's better than 6 min.

Both Kosmo and Lipon are RFA's. It is decision time. Give them each 2 way, 1 year deals. Let them compete for 4RW. Let them alternate in the press box. After a year 1 wins the job and the other is let go or becomes a fixture in the PB. If neither is adequate Chevy can start looking for alternatives.

 

[tbcwpg]

PHI - Stolarz

Philly said they're protecting Stolarz after they signed Neuvirth, and exposing Neuvirth. I expect Vegas to take him.

 

[Gm0ney]

Philly said they're protecting Stolarz after they signed Neuvirth, and exposing Neuvirth. I expect Vegas to take him.

Oh, that makes sense then. I thought they were signing Neuvirth to keep him. Why would Vegas take Neuvirth though? They've got nothing worth taking on D but a few of Philly's forwards might be enticing...

 

[tbcwpg]

Oh, that makes sense then. I thought they were signing Neuvirth to keep him. Why would Vegas take Neuvirth though? They've got nothing worth taking on D but a few of Philly's forwards might be enticing...

The rest of the goalie list isn't great and they can only tax max amounts of forward and d - they'll need someone to play in net for a bit and I don't think they'll land a big UFA goalie who will want to win (ie. not Bishop). He'll be a good backup for them at the very least.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yea I could easily see Winnipeg trading for a goalie from Vegas. Has anyone constructed a list of goalies that will need to be exposed to Vegas yet that you guys have seen?

A comprehensive list turns into a lot of work in a hurry. Some teams are not obvious.
Here is a quick and dirty list:
Bernier
Smith
Subban
Nilsson
Ullmark
Elliott
Johnson
Darling
Varlamov?
Korpisalo
Forsberg
Howard
Luongo
Berra
Bishop
Zatkoff
Kuemper
Stalock
Montoya
Kinkaid
Halak
Raanta
Craig Anderson?
Mason
MAF - assumed buy-out
Dell
Hutton
Budaj
Miller
Grubauer

No pretense of a perfect list but I think I got all the interesting ones.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Doesn't Vegas have to draft a certain amount of salary in the expansion draft? That may force them to take a guy like Toby, even if they're not that interested...just to reach the salary floor.

I don't see them having to take anybody to meet the floor. There will be lots of mid level players with mid level contracts. That will get it done for them.

 

[Huffer]

Love to see what it would cost to get Raanta or Grubauer.

Closer to the late 2nd, middle 3rd picks and 7th round pick swap like Talbot? Or closer to the 30th, plus a 2nd for Anderson?

If they think one of those guys can take the next step like Talbot or Anderson, I'd do it.

 

[ps241]

A comprehensive list turns into a lot of work in a hurry. Some teams are not obvious.
Here is a quick and dirty list:
Bernier
Smith
Subban
Nilsson
Ullmark
Elliott
Johnson
Darling
Varlamov?
Korpisalo
Forsberg
Howard
Luongo
Berra
Bishop
Zatkoff
Kuemper
Stalock
Montoya
Kinkaid
Halak
Raanta
Craig Anderson?
Mason
MAF - assumed buy-out
Dell
Hutton
Budaj
Miller
Grubauer

No pretense of a perfect list but I think I got all the interesting ones.

Well done Mort, thanks my friend.