Speculation: Expansion Draft Discussion

[NoNecksCurse]

That is also not true.

that was sarcasm

 

[Predsanddead24]

What do people even think we would get for Arvidsson at this point? A 2nd and a 3rd? Is that worth also losing the other player in the expansion draft.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

What do people even think we would get for Arvidsson at this point? A 2nd and a 3rd? Is that worth also losing the other player in the expansion draft.

seems reasonable. i would try to get a 1st + a young roster player for ellis + arvidsson

 

[Kat Predator]

The average is about 3.5 per team per year. Still not an item you just toss aside but something that requires attention to detail to see if that player is likely a one time wonder or a repeatable performer. A Pred scored 20 or more 54 times ... but are we talking Andreas Johansen or Fil Forsberg? There are both objective and subjective aspects here ... a bit of guessing if past performance will continue into the future or if the best days are past.

Oops. Nevermind. I incorrectly understood you to be saying that a team had 3.5 over the 5 season window. (And, no, it didn't seem correct.)

Arvidsson was basically a 30+ goal scorer for 3 years. Then the last two shortened seasons, he wasn't. To be honest, he's not doing the same things either. He used to be our net front guy, getting a lot of rebounds and tipping pucks, as well as setting screens. He used to play on all the special teams units and got a few SH goals for us. We used to turn-and-burn with some regularity, and he was good at getting behind the defense. He isn't being asked to do any/most of that any longer, and it's hard to say if that is because his skills evaporated overnight, he can't do it anymore because he's washed up at 28, or because the new coaching staff just doesn't want him to play those roles.

 

[herzausstein]

Forsberg is the only forward that is a must protect to me. After that, it’s sort of a crap shoot. Arvidsson just doesn’t seem the same after his injuries. Joey and Duchene can both go for all I care. Kunin has some good moments. Jarnkrok is good but only 1 season left. Sissons is good as a 4C but makes 3C money. Trenin/Jeannot/Olivier all don’t have enough nhl track record to bother protecting since they likely don’t get taken. Granlund is a UFA. Haula is a UFA. Cousins and Grimaldi aren’t worth protecting.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Oops. Nevermind. I incorrectly understood you to be saying that a team had 3.5 over the 5 season window. (And, no, it didn't seem correct.)

Arvidsson was basically a 30+ goal scorer for 3 years. Then the last two shortened seasons, he wasn't. To be honest, he's not doing the same things either. He used to be our net front guy, getting a lot of rebounds and tipping pucks, as well as setting screens. He used to play on all the special teams units and got a few SH goals for us. We used to turn-and-burn with some regularity, and he was good at getting behind the defense. He isn't being asked to do any/most of that any longer, and it's hard to say if that is because his skills evaporated overnight, he can't do it anymore because he's washed up at 28, or because the new coaching staff just doesn't want him to play those roles.

I think it's a combination of all of those things probably. Maybe Seattle will want to play that game, and maybe he'll find a good home there. Heaven knows it will be difficult for them to find top-6 talent. Maybe he can be their Marchessault.

That might work out well for us too. Maybe they look at his 3x$4.25M remaining, the relative abundance of decent NHL defensemen, and maybe they even take Arvidsson over Ellis. Then maybe we have a more attractive post-Expansion market to trade Ellis in. A combination like that may be the best value option we can get, rather than trading them at depreciated values pre-Expansion.

Or if Seattle wants Ellis, maybe we actually just slide through this and get to keep Arvy. I'd still be auditioning other players in his spot (Tomasino and Tolvanen), but maybe he could still recapture his past glory to some extent with us in a lesser role. I wouldn't be against that either. I just wouldn't protect him to ensure that.

It's a lot of maybes but I'm definitely comfortable with pursuing that path if it opens up for us.

 

[Vitto79]

Is NSH going 4 4?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Is NSH going 4 4?

4 months ago that was a resounding YES!

Recent events have definitely thrown everything into question. I'm confident we will protect Forsberg, Kunin, Josi, Ekholm, and Saros. Past that...... hence this thread.

 

[herzausstein]

Is NSH going 4 4?

I personally see no reason not to. We don't have any really great forwards that need protection outside of Forsberg. The rest is basically a compilation of under achievers (Arvidsson), contractual albatrosses (Joey, Duchene), and complimentary pieces (Jarnkrok, Kunin, Sissons, Trenin, Jeannot, Grimaldi, Cousins). You don't lose a good dman for a complimentary piece. Technically it's 8 and 1. We could go with protecting 5 dmen and 3 forwards which is something i get pushed towards more and more each game. Protect Ellis, Ekholm, Fabbro, Josi, Carrier, Forsberg, and two other forwards.

Arvidsson has underachieved recently but still provides decent value at 4.25M considering he's still at 0.5 PPG. We just traded for Kunin and he's younger than most of the active roster forwards. Jarnkrok provides great value but only has 1 more year under contract and he's gonna want a good raise after that and I don't think this team is in the position to commit to another forward over 30. For the two other forwards, I'd personally go with RV and Kunin and hope Seattle bypasses Jarnkrok due to contract situation. Once expansion is done, trade Ellis for the best return possible. If things go sideways next season and Jarnkrok slips through the expansion, we trade him at the deadline for a good return.

 

[Kat Predator]

I think it's a combination of all of those things probably. Maybe Seattle will want to play that game, and maybe he'll find a good home there. Heaven knows it will be difficult for them to find top-6 talent. Maybe he can be their Marchessault.

I suspect it isn't really that he forgot how to play the game or his talent vanished. Injuries and shortened seasons have had something to do with it, but that's not the complete picture.

 

[luckofirish8]

I would pay Seattle to take Ellis. I'm only partly joking.

 

[Scoresberg]

I guess it comes down to whether you protect a player like Sissons, Jarnkrok, Trenin or Jeannot (who all are a dime a dozen more or less) instead of a proven 20-goal scorer Arvidsson.. not the greatest asset management in my mind.

 

[101st_fan]

I guess it comes down to whether you protect a player like Sissons, Jarnkrok, Trenin or Jeannot (who all are a dime a dozen more or less) instead of a proven 20-goal scorer Arvidsson.. not the greatest asset management in my mind.

A proven 20 goal scorer, yes. But that is just part of it. Part is assessing if this year is the exception or part of a regression in output. If it's a regression, does the staff assess it as a gradual downward slope where his contract isn't necessarily bad in three years or do they expect JP Dumont 2008-11 falloff in numbers. Sissons, Jarnkrok, Trenin are all known factors at this point. The reverse model for Arvy is Jeannot/Kunin and the staff's assessment of how much growth, if any, they expect in their games. Does the team protect Arvy or Ellis if the projection is 2021 level of play for the rest of their current contract is one of the questions in play.

The trade market is skewed until after the expansion draft. Teams aren't going to risk trading for a player that they then have to expose.

 

[Scoresberg]

A proven 20 goal scorer, yes. But that is just part of it. Part is assessing if this year is the exception or part of a regression in output. If it's a regression, does the staff assess it as a gradual downward slope where his contract isn't necessarily bad in three years or do they expect JP Dumont 2008-11 falloff in numbers. Sissons, Jarnkrok, Trenin are all known factors at this point. The reverse model for Arvy is Jeannot/Kunin and the staff's assessment of how much growth, if any, they expect in their games. Does the team protect Arvy or Ellis if the projection is 2021 level of play for the rest of their current contract is one of the questions in play.

The trade market is skewed until after the expansion draft. Teams aren't going to risk trading for a player that they then have to expose.

On a team, that has maybe two or three legit top-six forwards, giving up one for free is crazy. Especially, considering he has value around the league, a lot more value than Trenin, Jeannot or Sissons.

And hey, don't get me wrong, I certainly don't think Arvy is the player he once was. But I think he can still provide value for us, his contract is solid even if he played lower in the lineup. He can be a bridge between injecting Tomasino into the lineup, while providing 20 goals year in year out.

 

[Predsanddead24]

while providing 20 goals year in year out.

If this were the case the you keep him but I’m not sure it will be moving forward. He was on pace for less than that over a full season this year. Half his goal scoring came in two really great games this year too so for 48 games this season he wasn’t close to being that player.

 

[Armourboy]

Arvy is ok to protect as long as it doesn't mean exposing someone more valuable to the team. With Haula and Granlund possibly gone to UFA losing a Sissons could make matters worse.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

On a team, that has maybe two or three legit top-six forwards, giving up one for free is crazy. Especially, considering he has value around the league, a lot more value than Trenin, Jeannot or Sissons.

And hey, don't get me wrong, I certainly don't think Arvy is the player he once was. But I think he can still provide value for us, his contract is solid even if he played lower in the lineup. He can be a bridge between injecting Tomasino into the lineup, while providing 20 goals year in year out.

You don't expose a proven scorer like Neal for a utility dime a dozen guy like Jarnkrok

 

[nine_inch_fang]

You don't expose a proven scorer like Neal for a utility dime a dozen guy like Jarnkrok

Was thinking the same thing.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Was thinking the same thing.

I know it's not apples to apples, but I think the idea behind a descending vs ascending player is pretty similar.

 

[Scoresberg]

You don't expose a proven scorer like Neal for a utility dime a dozen guy like Jarnkrok

Neal was upcoming FA and was looking for a raise. Jarnkrok had just entered his sweetheart deal and Poile wanted to keep the Swedes happy.

Also, after losing Neal we’ve never gone to the Finals again.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Neal was upcoming FA and was looking for a raise. Jarnkrok had just entered his sweetheart deal and Poile wanted to keep the Swedes happy.

Also, after losing Neal we’ve never gone to the Finals again.

So you think we should have kept Neal?

 

[Scoresberg]

So you think we should have kept Neal?

On that day, yes. Looking back, exposing him was the right move.

Maybe it’s just because I don’t see Jeannot or Trenin as anything really special and not worth protecting. Whereas Arvy has still miles left and is on a team-friendly contract, like Jarnkrok was in ’17.

 

[101st_fan]

You don't expose a proven scorer like Neal for a utility dime a dozen guy like Jarnkrok

Then Neal goes off and becomes a very inconsistent performer. 25 goals with Vegas, then 7 in Calgary, followed by 19 and 5 as an Oiler. He does become an interesting case for protecting or not with the dramatic up and down totals.

 

[101st_fan]

On that day, yes. Looking back, exposing him was the right move.

Maybe it’s just because I don’t see Jeannot or Trenin as anything really special and not worth protecting. Whereas Arvy has still miles left and is on a team-friendly contract, like Jarnkrok was in ’17.

The great unknown is what quality of miles does Arvy have left in him. Is there another few seasons of 20+ goal seasons? 15-20 goals? Less than that? It's that assessment that will drive if it makes sense to protect him or not. If this year is the exception, protect him. If this year is the new normal for him ...

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I mean, I know it's fairly early days, but to me it's really difficult to understand how somebody could look at Jeannot and Trenin and think they are just generic dime-a-dozen grinders. They both were #1 players on their team in successive years in the AHL. It doesn't automatically translate to NHL success, but at the same time they've demonstrated in the brief lifetime of The Herd 2.0 that they have much larger positive impact on the game than Arvidsson does.

I can see them as precisely the type of components that modern championship teams need. Players who play hard, set the other team back on their heels, make them hear footsteps in their nightmares. And still chip in some timely offense too. I don't see them at all as generic dime-a-dozen 4th line grinders.

Even acknowledging the risk factor that maybe I'm getting fooled by a small sample surge by these players and that they do instead settle down and end up just being generic dime-a-dozen 4th line grinders longer term... I think the mere fact that they have shown more and hinted at a greater upside makes me willing to take the risk in protecting them. Because if they do keep this up, or better yet have even more upside, then that's worth far far more to us than the modern-day version of players like Arvidsson.