Confirmed with Link: Erne and Vrana file for Arbitration

[jkutswings]

It's not that I think all those moves were bad though I think some were very questionable. I don't think they are ignoring the centernice position. I just don't think they have a plan with a high probability for success at addressing the issue.
Let's say we fail to find Pastrnak in the next 3 years. Now we're the Arizona Coyotes. Our current trajectory is straight up to the........middle. I know people scoff at the idea that Yzerman won't just wave his magic wand and make us a contender but I think there's gonna be a lot more dumping of talent for futures. This rebuild is a long way from turning the corner.

A couple things:

1) A plan with high probability of adding a 1C does not exist. You can't guarantee a top 2-3 pick, even if you tank. (Last year it happened to grant the worst team the top pick, but Buffalo only had 25.7% odds, and we've seen Detroit's luck with the lottery.)

2) We just have different expectations. I see at most 2 more years of missing the playoffs, through a combination of:

* Gaining deadline assets for Leddy/Bert
* Seider growing into a stud
* Raymond and Berggren being solid contributors by 2023
* Zadina taking the next step this year
* Adding one or more significant players via trade or free agency next summer.

But it'll be fun to see how the next two years compare to each of our opinions.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

It's not that I think all those moves were bad though I think some were very questionable. I don't think they are ignoring the centernice position. I just don't think they have a plan with a high probability for success at addressing the issue.
Let's say we fail to find Pastrnak in the next 3 years. Now we're the Arizona Coyotes. Our current trajectory is straight up to the........middle. I know people scoff at the idea that Yzerman won't just wave his magic wand and make us a contender but I think there's gonna be a lot more dumping of talent for futures. This rebuild is a long way from turning the corner.

I don't think they don't have a plan - I just don't think there's a good plan period to land a young, franchise C. They are rare. There are like 15 of them at any given one time - with another 15 or so pretending to be one and being held up by a system around them. You have three options:

1 - Trade for One - which normally isn't an option, but is one this year for some reason given extraordinary circumstances with Eichel. However, the cost is high (5x 1st Rd Level Assets - which again means: Seider and Raymond at least)

2 - Sign one in Free Agency - I struggle to think of the last time one of them became available - Tavares but he felt like a middle of the road 1C; not exactly a leader but sure, benefit of the doubt. What 1C's are coming to Detroit IF the are available

3 - Draft One - I'll break this up in two:

3a: Draft using the highest lotto pick you can get (i.e. Tank for one)

3b: Draft One in the Later Rounds utilizing Superior Scouting and Player Development/Luck (The Pastranak - which, is funny that was the example given we are literally the franchise that found the crown jewel of late round C's in Datsyuk and Zetterberg)

Based on your replies to a lot of this - I'm assuming you are advocating for 3a? Based on your Leddy opinion. But then you advocate trying to lock down Bert which flies in the face of this, then you get made at the tank and having nothing to show for it, and then you advocate for the veteran over unproven prospects.

Which path to a 1C are you advocating for? Trade, UFA, Tank for Lotto, or Late Round Steal?

 

[Gniwder]

Which path to a 1C are you advocating for? Trade, UFA, Tank for Lotto, or Late Round Steal?

The Red Savage. He's gotta be a 1C based on name alone.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Ovechkin better watch out now that Vrana was set free from that oppressive organization that actively stopped people from scoring goals. I mean, Vrana scored 3 more goals in his 11 games with Detroit than the greatest goal scorer in NHL history scored in his last 11 regular season games with Washington this past season.

Maybe we should tack on $3 million to Ovechkin's contract. 1 for each additional goal Vrana scored over Ovechkin. Give him a cool $12.5 million annual salary.

I can never tell when you're being facetious or not.

Anyway, news about Vrana below!

Jakub Vrana, Red Wings far apart in contract figures as arbitration nears

 

[Hen Kolland]

I can never tell when you're being facetious or not.

Anyway, news about Vrana below!

Jakub Vrana, Red Wings far apart in contract figures as arbitration nears

We obviously can only pontificate on what arguments both sides will be making, but the way I see it playing out is as follows:

Vrana's camp uses a heavy dose of analytics and metrics to show big "per something" numbers relative to the league to establish his value. I expect this was similar to the tactic used by Athanasiou. He will also talk about the hot start to his time as a Red Wing and how he has developed chemistry with some Wings players early on.

Detroit's camp will err on the side of best complete seasons not really ever climbing to elite levels. They will point to some question marks from his time in Washington. Limited sample size. Etc.

My expectation is that the arbitration result is around $4.7-$5.0 million and the Wings elect to make it a 1 year deal. The expiration will be as RFA, and assuming he steps up to the plate and puts together a complete season of consistent effort and performance, Yzerman will have no problem giving him a Mantha deal. It still doesn't change my stance... I have never thought Vrana was hear for the long term. Regardless of what happens with his contract, I think Yzerman will position himself to trade Vrana and recoup something before he ever allows Vrana to position himself to walk as an unrestricted free agent.

And the allure of my existence is never having a grip on whether I am being facetious or not

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I need to show proof to support an opinion? That is an absurd request. You fellows are really doing your best to maintain a cozy clique atmosphere around here.

There is no reason besides complaining to complain that you’re up in arms and worried that a player is going to be insulted by 3.65 million instead of 4 million.

We are pointing it out because the worry here is completely nonexistent. This is business. This is what arbitration hearings are. By attributing a worry over whether a guy is insulted by 3.65 instead of 4 when it’s been pretty much SOP for decades that team goes low, player goes high, meet in middle… you’re going against how the process has worked since its inception. To prove it is a legitimate worry and we should be worried about it, yeah, you have to give an example or two of a guy being offended by something like this

 

[ThankGord]

I wouldn't be upset with the Mantha deal and it sounds like that's what Vrana's camp wants but I think it's wise to get him on a one year deal and see how he fits in before investing long term. I did read some Caps fans' posts regarding the same sort of inconsistency that plagued Mantha.

 

[SirKillalot]

1 x $4.5M

Vrana can play himself into the team long term. Thus negotiate a new longer deal next off season.
Yzerman get opportunities to trade him as a rental until a possible re-negotiation of a new contract.
We can have the same thing next year and same process if no outcome until that point.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

I don't think they don't have a plan - I just don't think there's a good plan period to land a young, franchise C. They are rare. There are like 15 of them at any given one time - with another 15 or so pretending to be one and being held up by a system around them. You have three options:

1 - Trade for One - which normally isn't an option, but is one this year for some reason given extraordinary circumstances with Eichel. However, the cost is high (5x 1st Rd Level Assets - which again means: Seider and Raymond at least)

2 - Sign one in Free Agency - I struggle to think of the last time one of them became available - Tavares but he felt like a middle of the road 1C; not exactly a leader but sure, benefit of the doubt. What 1C's are coming to Detroit IF the are available

3 - Draft One - I'll break this up in two:

3a: Draft using the highest lotto pick you can get (i.e. Tank for one)

3b: Draft One in the Later Rounds utilizing Superior Scouting and Player Development/Luck (The Pastranak - which, is funny that was the example given we are literally the franchise that found the crown jewel of late round C's in Datsyuk and Zetterberg)

Based on your replies to a lot of this - I'm assuming you are advocating for 3a? Based on your Leddy opinion. But then you advocate trying to lock down Bert which flies in the face of this, then you get made at the tank and having nothing to show for it, and then you advocate for the veteran over unproven prospects.

Which path to a 1C are you advocating for? Trade, UFA, Tank for Lotto, or Late Round Steal?

Clearly they're only going to get one if they draft him. I'm not confident they're going to get one any time soon. That means they are going suck for longer as they trade away quality players such as Bert and give away assets to obtain rental vets like Leddy.
At this point the Yzerplan is to chase luck. How has hoping for luck worked out thus far?

 

[Revenge of Gru]

I need to show proof to support an opinion? That is an absurd request. You fellows are really doing your best to maintain a cozy clique atmosphere around here.

Spot on. This becomes real clear real fast.

 

[Frk It]

Clearly they're only going to get one if they draft him. I'm not confident they're going to get one any time soon. That means they are going suck for longer as they trade away quality players such as Bert and give away assets to obtain rental vets like Leddy.
At this point the Yzerplan is to chase luck. How has hoping for luck worked out thus far?

You realize we had 2 picks in the top 15, and 3 in the top 40 this year right? 7 picks in the top 100 last year. We have had plenty of kicks at the can.

Did you want Seider and Hronek to play with complete shit partners this year? Is that good for their development?

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Clearly they're only going to get one if they draft him. I'm not confident they're going to get one any time soon. That means they are going suck for longer as they trade away quality players such as Bert and give away assets to obtain rental vets like Leddy.
At this point the Yzerplan is to chase luck. How has hoping for luck worked out thus far?

Ignoring what they are doing, I'm trying to figure out what you are supporting. What do you think the best path forward is?

 

[ThankGord]

Ignoring what they are doing, I'm trying to figure out what you are supporting. What do you think the best path forward is?

They don't contribute any positive ideas or thoughts or support any specific solutions, just complaints and cynicism.

I'd love to hear The Oaf's plan to fix the team.

 

[jkutswings]

Clearly they're only going to get one if they draft him. I'm not confident they're going to get one any time soon.

Specifically, why are you so pessimistic about drafting (at least) one very good center next summer?

This very morning I browsed the 2022 thread and asked the following question:

"Quick poll for those regularly watching all these 2022 kids:
How many centers do you think are on track to be worth a top 10 pick?"

And here's the very first response I received:

Right now it looks like 5 should be a pretty easy projection. Dont know a lot about this year yet necessarily but Wright, Lambert, Savoie, Cooley and McGroaty all look like top 10 guys, really all borderline top 5 guys. Obviously some may fall out but their spots could also be taken by other centers as well

Now to be fair, this is one opinion. But there has been plenty of excitement around the league over centers with this particular class for some time. So if next summer there end up being several high quality center prospects in the top 10, what makes you think that Detroit won't snag one? I mean if it's anywhere near as good as implied above and there are 5-6 guys in the top 10, Detroit could get one without even having a top 5 pick, let alone winning the lottery.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

You realize we had 2 picks in the top 15, and 3 in the top 40 this year right? 7 picks in the top 100 last year. We have had plenty of kicks at the can.

Did you want Seider and Hronek to play with complete shit partners this year? Is that good for their development?

How many franchise centers do we have to show for all those picks? Oh that's right. We prioritized reaching for a goalie at 15th.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

Ignoring what they are doing, I'm trying to figure out what you are supporting. What do you think the best path forward is?

Picking as high as possible next year instead of trading assets for veteran rentals? How is that hard to understand?

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Picking as high as possible next year instead of trading assets for veteran rentals? How is that hard to understand?

I'm truly trying to ask your opinion here and trying to be civil

It's not hard to understand but it feels antithetical in your argument to keep Bertuzzi, and your opinion about not valuing veterans in favor of overvaluing prospects and picks. As well as your frustration and criticality of going tank and having nothing to show for it.

To go back to your original analogy, that the best way to add more kicks to the can would be to move all our tradeable assets over their peak +7 at this point, since we are seven years out even if we land a franchise C this upcoming draft?

This would probably include Vrana as well I suppose?

 

[ThankGord]

Picking as high as possible next year instead of trading assets for veteran rentals? How is that hard to understand?

This is why it's confusing:

At this point the Yzerplan is to chase luck. How has hoping for luck worked out thus far?

You suggest tanking for lottery odds and at the same time deride Yzerman for chasing luck.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

There is no reason besides complaining to complain that you’re up in arms and worried that a player is going to be insulted by 3.65 million instead of 4 million.

We are pointing it out because the worry here is completely nonexistent. This is business. This is what arbitration hearings are. By attributing a worry over whether a guy is insulted by 3.65 instead of 4 when it’s been pretty much SOP for decades that team goes low, player goes high, meet in middle… you’re going against how the process has worked since its inception. To prove it is a legitimate worry and we should be worried about it, yeah, you have to give an example or two of a guy being offended by something like this

Up in arms? Worried? I made one comment. One single sentence suggesting our offer bordered on insulting. The slew of semi-hostile responses strikes me as the up in arms crowd, but sure paint me as the hysterical one.
Reading the article Ogee posted, it seems like the Vrana camp might just be offended by our offer.

You want examples of a team/player relationship souring after arbitration? I'm sure I could find plenty, but I'm not about to waste my time on it.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

Specifically, why are you so pessimistic about drafting (at least) one very good center next summer?

This very morning I browsed the 2022 thread and asked the following question:

"Quick poll for those regularly watching all these 2022 kids:
How many centers do you think are on track to be worth a top 10 pick?"

And here's the very first response I received:



Now to be fair, this is one opinion. But there has been plenty of excitement around the league over centers with this particular class for some time. So if next summer there end up being several high quality center prospects in the top 10, what makes you think that Detroit won't snag one? I mean if it's anywhere near as good as implied above and there are 5-6 guys in the top 10, Detroit could get one without even having a top 5 pick, let alone winning the lottery.

Because I expect them to finish 6-8 from the bottom and pick just outside of the guys we need. That's why I think the Leddy trade was so dumb.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

I'm truly trying to ask your opinion here and trying to be civil

It's not hard to understand but it feels antithetical in your argument to keep Bertuzzi, and your opinion about not valuing veterans in favor of overvaluing prospects and picks. As well as your frustration and criticality of going tank and having nothing to show for it.

To go back to your original analogy, that the best way to add more kicks to the can would be to move all our tradeable assets over their peak +7 at this point, since we are seven years out even if we land a franchise C this upcoming draft?

This would probably include Vrana as well I suppose?

My preferred scenario is that we keep the talent we have and build upon it. However the failure to find a stud center seriously hampers our chance at success. I think inevitably Yzerman will trade Hronek, Bert and Vrana. Maybe even Larkin because the window is further away than he hoped and without a stud center we're going nowhere.

 

[jkutswings]

Because I expect them to finish 6-8 from the bottom and pick just outside of the guys we need. That's why I think the Leddy trade was so dumb.

See, I don't think adding Leddy brings more victories per se. I think it just lets the kids learn while getting singed instead of scalded, and makes the losses more entertaining for the fans.

I'm hoping Detroit now can play at least one notch on the tempo meter above last year's "turtle for a 1-0 shootout win every night". But we'll see.

 

[Konnan511]

Get Vrana signed for 1 year at 4.75mil and then lock down long term towards the end of the season.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

This is why it's confusing:



You suggest tanking for lottery odds and at the same time deride Yzerman for chasing luck.

They don't have to get #1. However they're trying to get #8 or 10 and wasting assets to do it. What happens when the center you want goes 6th but Leddy helped you win 2 more games so you get another winger as consolation prize?

 

[Revenge of Gru]

See, I don't think adding Leddy brings more victories per se. I think it just lets the kids learn while getting singed instead of scalded, and makes the losses more entertaining for the fans.

I'm hoping Detroit now can play at least one notch on the tempo meter above last year's "turtle for a 1-0 shootout win every night". But we'll see.

Watch. The guy picked right before we take another winger will be the center we want.