Speculation: Erik Karlsson

[Pavlikovsky]

Somebody on their board said that Sergachev was in a deal last weekend and was nixed last minute by Melnyk. I had heard that we had another deal nixed by Melnyk last weekend too but I didnt hear anything about Sergachev. After seeing the return, I doubt Sergachev was ever in a deal for him but we are talking about Melnyk again. I dont know how he would be that dumb to decline that though.

Probably had Callahan or anybody with a salary above 2mil going the Sens way.

 

[J T Money]

I hope SFY comes out and says we offered the moon, something crazy like Point and Sergachev, just to see the responses.

 

[God King Fudge]

I gotta be honest boys. It feels good seeing some of the same Sens fans who were screaming to the heavens that it would take Sergachev++++ to get Karlsson saying how Sergachev alone would be better than what they got.

 

[Sky04]

Somebody on their board said that Sergachev was in a deal last weekend and was nixed last minute by Melnyk. I had heard that we had another deal nixed by Melnyk last weekend too but I didnt hear anything about Sergachev. After seeing the return, I doubt Sergachev was ever in a deal for him but we are talking about Melnyk again. I dont know how he would be that dumb to decline that though.

I doubt that's it, EK had a significantly good chance of resigning in TB so their ask was higher from us because he wouldn't be a pure rental if traded to us and we had to move cap out to make it work which they didn't want to take.

The trade to SJ was a pure rental and already reported that no extension in part of the trade, that's the part their fans didnt, the was never going to be a bidding war that would drive up Karlssons price. Aside from the 2-3 teams that were heavily favored to resign him, he was a pure rental in value to everyone else and they would never increase their bid above that, as long one those 2-3 teams didn't budge and it looks like none of them did they were never going to get the value they wanted.

If Sergachev was part of the deal I doubt Yzerman included much if anything else whereas Ottawa likely wanted the moon due to strong possibility of resigning. There is no way we were that serious with a Karlsson trade and didnt offer a better package then that with our pieces, Foote alone is more value any piece they got back. I think ego was a huge part of this trade, Dorian didn't want to look like an idiot by trading essentially a signed Karlsson to TB for less than full value so he traded him as a pure rental and can hide behind that when Karlsson walks in a year.

 

[Boxscore]

Somebody on their board said that Sergachev was in a deal last weekend and was nixed last minute by Melnyk.

I hope you don't believe that crap with a straight face.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I hope you don't believe that crap with a straight face.

Well I did then. As I pointed out above I doubted that he actually was after seeing the return. I'm curious about what we actually did offer. There were rumors last deadline that we weren't even including Foote so I probably shouldn't have thought that Sergachev could ever be a part of it but you never know how these negotiations change or if the Foote rumor was even true or not.

 

[The Gongshow]

We get to keep Serg now, so I'm happy

 

[BeingTheThunder]

Personally, I think Melnyk would've balked at an offer with Sergachev. I think he would balk because he knows that Sergachev is on the cusp of stardom and he'd have to pony up dough in a year or two. That is totally counter to what he is trying to do with his team now. He is trying his best to keep his salary cap as close to the floor as possible. The only way he's able to do that is to only accept talent whose ceiling is average at-best.

His goal is to spend as little money as possible and the best way to do that is keep your roster at a level where 80-85% of your players are on entry-level contracts.

 

[Crunchrulz]

At least we can now move on to other topics for a few weeks.

 

[Hoek]

The Sharks are an older team with a shorter window. Unless they pull a Caps and finally win it this year I don't think EK is going to be terribly convinced by them over us, unless he falls in love with the place, which could certainly happen.

 

[DaBolts]

We'll keep a parking space reserved for Karl next year, no biggie. Keeping Serg was the real win, IMHO.

 

[DFC]

Somebody on their board said that Sergachev was in a deal last weekend and was nixed last minute by Melnyk. I had heard that we had another deal nixed by Melnyk last weekend too but I didnt hear anything about Sergachev. After seeing the return, I doubt Sergachev was ever in a deal for him but we are talking about Melnyk again. I dont know how he would be that dumb to decline that though.

I've always questioned that because it comes from their side. That said, I do trust our side (SAI). think we can be reasonably sure a deal--whatever it was--got ****ed up by Ottawa's management stepping in. SAI has a great track record around these parts, and I've never seen him make a comment so concrete that turns out not to be true. (Honestly, I believe SAI over Canadian Insiders like Elliot Friedman, who, while good, has never shown he has an "in" with TB.)

So, personally, I believe a deal was done, but we'll probably have to wait and see what we were actually offering. The deal Ottawa actually settled for makes it hard to believe we offered Serg, even if they didn't want to send him here.

 

[DFC]

Personally, I think Melnyk would've balked at an offer with Sergachev. I think he would balk because he knows that Sergachev is on the cusp of stardom and he'd have to pony up dough in a year or two. That is totally counter to what he is trying to do with his team now. He is trying his best to keep his salary cap as close to the floor as possible. The only way he's able to do that is to only accept talent whose ceiling is average at-best.

His goal is to spend as little money as possible and the best way to do that is keep your roster at a level where 80-85% of your players are on entry-level contracts.

The crazy thing is, while this theory is a little bit far-fetched, and I don't buy it, it's not completely implausible. Which tells you the current state of the Ottawa Senators.

Aside from Daniel Alfredsson, I can't think of a star player they kept once it came time to pay him. And they even ripped Alfredsson off to the point that his relationship with the org has had extremely rocky patches.

 

[DFC]

The Sharks are an older team with a shorter window. Unless they pull a Caps and finally win it this year I don't think EK is going to be terribly convinced by them over us, unless he falls in love with the place, which could certainly happen.

IMO, there's another side to this. Sharks' management is beyond proven. It feels like people have been saying their window is closing for something like 8 years, but, year after year, Wilson manages to keep them competitive. They don't go through the rebuild-contend-win-rebuild cycle that has become more/less the blueprint (and, most teams don't get it exactly right, and wind up with rebuild-rebuild-rebuild), and I think a player like Karlsson, who's missed the playoffs as often as not, probably respects that. They're always in the mix.

 

[Sky04]

IMO, there's another side to this. Sharks' management is beyond proven. It feels like people have been saying their window is closing for something like 8 years, but, year after year, Wilson manages to keep them competitive. They don't go through the rebuild-contend-win-rebuild cycle that has become more/less the blueprint (and, most teams don't get it exactly right, and wind up with rebuild-rebuild-rebuild), and I think a player like Karlsson, who's missed the playoffs as often as not, probably respects that. They're always in the mix.

You and I said the same thing about SJ I the Tavares sweepstakes, Doug Wilson has done a great job of making them completive for over a decade, he has constantly retooled and managed the team well, same argument I said last time, Tampa as good as they are is very crowded and that's not always a good thing

 

[Todd1a]

ottawa got messed up in that deal hell they would have done better just only getting Sergachev for karlsson straight up

 

[God King Fudge]

From Friedman on the trade.

Says that SJ was only off and on discussing a deal and then really ramped up, so no extension was likely due to the suddenness of the deal.

Still a big deal that Tampa is (was) his preference. Now that he's been dealt out of OTT, it'll take something huge for SJ to convince him to resign when he has a golden opportunity to end up in TB anyway next season.

 

[BAM]

From Friedman on the trade.

Says that SJ was only off and on discussing a deal and then really ramped up, so no extension was likely due to the suddenness of the deal.

Still a big deal that Tampa is (was) his preference. Now that he's been dealt out of OTT, it'll take something huge for SJ to convince him to resign when he has a golden opportunity to end up in TB anyway next season.

SJ could be better than the Bolts based on how that defense plays, if he prefers the fit of SJ it won't be that hard for him to stay vs going to TB.

 

[God King Fudge]

SJ could be better than the Bolts based on how that defense plays, if he prefers the fit of SJ it won't be that hard for him to stay vs going to TB.

I’ll take TB over SJ in the next few years 10/10 times.

Anything is possible and he could resign in SJ, but it’s been reported since last year he wanted to be in TB. Don’t think that changes. I think he’ll go to FA at least. May resign at that point, but I still like the TB chances.

 

[Cmac66]

SJ could be better than the Bolts based on how that defense plays, if he prefers the fit of SJ it won't be that hard for him to stay vs going to TB.

Not saying he would but i would look it at it this way.

Sharks

• All in now with them having a old core.
• Not very good prospects who can slot in when the old core go.
• Probably have a few more cracks at the cup and then that is that.
• Gets to play with arguably the best defence in the league.
• Would get more there than what he would get with us.

Tampa

• Would need to take less then what he could get elsewhere.
• Be competitive for years with having a great prospect pool and a mix of vets and young core.
• Play with Hedman for many years.
• Already said that he likes the area.

 

[BAM]

I’ll take TB over SJ in the next few years 10/10 times.

Anything is possible and he could resign in SJ, but it’s been reported since last year he wanted to be in TB. Don’t think that changes. I think he’ll go to FA at least. May resign at that point, but I still like the TB chances.

And Bolts fans were already condescendingly assuming that he was going to get traded to TB if the mainboards were any indication. I like SJ's defense and goaltending more than I like TB's but I'll give the edge in offense to TB. SJ has a good chance to be in the WCF or SCF next year with that team now. You could argue they've got 3 1D's on that team in Burns, Karlsson and Vlasic. Tampa also has more competition in the East than SJ will (Caps, Pens, Leafs, Bruins vs Jets and Preds and maybe Vegas if they don't regress). If Karlsson has a great year and the Sharks are successful I don't see why he'd leave that to join a team that if they don't win this year will have the negative stigma of being playoff chokers.

 

[BAM]

Not saying he would but i would look it at it this way.

Sharks

• All in now with them having a old core.
• Not very good prospects who can slot in when the old core go.
• Probably have a few more cracks at the cup and then that is that.
• Gets to play with arguably the best defence in the league.
• Would get more there than what he would get with us.

Tampa

• Would need to take less then what he could get elsewhere.
• Be competitive for years with having a great prospect pool and a mix of vets and young core.
• Play with Hedman for many years.
• Already said that he likes the area.

SJ and Tampa aren't too different area wise, in terms of climate they both offer similar things. The East is shaping up to be more tough than the West in the near future as well so being on a team that has an easier path to the SCF might be a factor for him as well. If I were him you can't go wrong with either but SJ has him for a year and if they have a great season it will be hard to walk away from that. Karlsson has all the individual accolades any D-man would want, it's about cups for him now. Sure the Bolts are a favourite but that only means so much especially when they'll have to contend with the Pens, Caps, Leafs and Bruins just in the East alone.

 

[Hoek]

Like San Jose doesn't already have that stigma? Lol

 

[God King Fudge]

And Bolts fans were already condescendingly assuming that he was going to get traded to TB if the mainboards were any indication. I like SJ's defense and goaltending more than I like TB's but I'll give the edge in offense to TB. SJ has a good chance to be in the WCF or SCF next year with that team now. You could argue they've got 3 1D's on that team in Burns, Karlsson and Vlasic. Tampa also has more competition in the East than SJ will (Caps, Pens, Leafs, Bruins vs Jets and Preds and maybe Vegas if they don't regress). If Karlsson has a great year and the Sharks are successful I don't see why he'd leave that to join a team that if they don't win this year will have the negative stigma of being playoff chokers.

So many hot takes.

We can discuss why you’re on the Tampa board being salty that Tampa fans are confident about their chances of signing Karlsson and the chances of their team being better for longer than SJ at another time. It’s almost as if there were multiple reports saying TB was his preferred destination.

Yeah, Karlsson gives them a sick defense, but It doesn’t even make them markedly better than Nashville. There’s still an arguement to be made between them. I still put SJ behind Winnipeg and Nashville in terms of contenders.

SJ also has an aging core and not much behind them. Tampa Bay is MUCH more likely to be competing in 3-4 years than SJ is, with or without Karlsson. SJ have been labeled playoff chokers for years, so I’m sure Karlsson would be fine with signing in TB if they get that label. Mostly from fans of other teams who could only wish their team had the recent playoff success Tampa has had.

So, yeah. It’s entirely possible SJ and Karlsson are a fit and he resigns. Until he does, I’ll remain confident that Tampa Bay remains his preferred landing spot.

 

[Master P]

Wait. A leaf fan is upset that another teams fanbase is hopeful that a star player will sign with them?