Erik Karlsson vs. David Rundblad

[Asquaredx2]

Just a quick look at their comparison found here Karlsson and Keith have the same amount of points, Keith actually has one more Powerplay point, so Karlsson has one more ES point (in 7 less games) Keith is much better shorthanded, but Karlsson actually has less giveaways than Keith. He as well is a little bit more consistent offensively than Keith is (More multi point games, and less Zero point game %). Using their overall comparison wins Karlsson has 21, compared to Keiths 17 (of course things like age, salary and cap hit aren't very important, and neither is years in NHL, years left on contract, and Average games over last three seasons when Karlsson hasn't played three seasons, so it's more 18-14).

Anyway the comparisons aren't horrible, I don't think it's people saying Karlsson is better than Keith/Doughty, just that they are offensive d-men that are amazing skaters and smart with the puck.

Give-away and take-away statistics are really untrustworthy.

Anyway I don't think anyone is or should be trying to say that Karlsson is already as good as Keith or necessarily will be. All I want to say is that people who say that comparison shouldn't be made (even future-wise) probably should argue that based on something other than Karlsson's potential to match Keith offensively.

Perhaps you're giving him too MUCH credit?

What eventually happens with defenders like Karlsson is one of three things:

1) They learn to defend and stop being liabilities in their own zone (think Dan Boyle)
2) They become PP specialists (think MAB)
3) They get replaced by someone who can play D AND O (think David Rundblad)

We get it. He was the best tasting cake in a freezer full of expired Twinkies.

Yeah we do over-rate him and shove him down people's throats but we're a big fanbase on HF and there's nothing else on the NHL roster to be proud/happy about (except Spezza).

Your break-down seems pretty implausible, though. If he doesn't become a great two-way guy, he's still already more than a MAB PP specialist. If Ottawa didn't have such a pathetic forward corps he would have a lot more ES production. And he's also already as good or better than MAB in his prime (he's far better than MAB is now). MAB only had one season where he surpassed Karlsson's past year in points (the only year he's even come close to EK's point total this past year) and Karlsson did it on a team that scored 190 goals and where he was second in scoring. Long-term I don't think it's very likely Karlsson's production going down from where it is now. So Karlsson would be more like a middle-class man's Mike Green in scenario 2, probably at worst.

#3 is just not going to happen. Rundblad would usurp his role and take some of his minutes if he ends up being better but that wouldn't get Karlsson kicked out of the league. Even MAB has stuck around for a while.

Now obviously regression is possible (but seems unlikely to me) and injuries are possible (*knock on wood*) but basically I see Karlsson maxing out as like a Zubov/Niedermayer/Keith-type of defenceman (note: I think it's a long shot that he gets to that level) and having a plausible low-end as being worse but not considerably worse than Mike Green is (obviously adjusting point totals in considering systems and team-mates), albeit without the ability to score 30 goals in a season.

That's probably the homer in me, though.

 

[ErikKarlsson]

thats not good, as much as Karlsson is world class on offense, he's a huge liability on defense, dont know how many habs I seen take him wide and just skate around him like there was noone there.

But for some reason he is great on the PK.

 

[Iamok]

thats not good, as much as Karlsson is world class on offense, he's a huge liability on defense, dont know how many habs I seen take him wide and just skate around him like there was noone there.

Again, no he isn't. He needs work on pivotting especially, but it's almost comical how underrated EK's defensive play is. From the sounds of it you'd think the guy's nothing more than a PP specialist.

 

[ErikKarlsson]

I have a question for everyone that says EK is a liability defensively. Why did he lead his team in average ES TOI/G and total TOI/G if he is so bad defensively? Also why was the PK operating at 92.7% when he was on the ice paired with either Chris Phillips or Filip Kuba (the other 2 horrible +/- players on the team)

 

[Minister of Offence]

I have a question for everyone that says EK is a liability defensively. Why did he lead his team in average ES TOI/G and total TOI/G if he is so bad defensively? Also why was the PK operating at 92.7% when he was on the ice paired with either Chris Phillips or Filip Kuba (the other 2 horrible +/- players on the team)

There's a lot more to do defense then killing penalties. Karlsson's quickness and stick work makes him a viable option on the penalty kill, and the time he spent on it last year was very successful.

If Karlsson played for a team that was functional, he would probably see less important ES defensive minutes, he would then be less exploited as a young (and small) defensemen by the oppositions top players..and in turn, people would talk about his defensive short comings much less.

For Karlsson especially, as a tiny but extremekly skilled d-man, you may have to wait til he's 23-25 to really understand what he can be. That goes for all players, but for players like him it holds more true.

 

[Kershaw]

I have a question for everyone that says EK is a liability defensively. Why did he lead his team in average ES TOI/G and total TOI/G if he is so bad defensively? Also why was the PK operating at 92.7% when he was on the ice paired with either Chris Phillips or Filip Kuba (the other 2 horrible +/- players on the team)

He starts 57% of his shifts in the offensive zone and the GA/60 mins while Karlsson on the ice is 3.04 GA while it's at 2.70 when he is off the ice.

 

[ErikKarlsson]

He starts 57% of his shifts in the offensive zone and the GA/60 mins while Karlsson on the ice is 3.04 GA while it's at 2.70 when he is off the ice.

Where did you get that stat out of curiosity. Would like to see what the GA is with Kuba on the ice.

 

[Shanny]

as of right now, I think this guy is the better player:

 

[HSF]

Karlsson defense will improve once we get some competent defensemen and goalie around him. Having Seabrook as Keith's rock has helped him tremendously. I suspect Cowen will play a similar role and Karlsson will only get better from here and soon be a legit star

 

[Alf Silfversson]

I find it hilarious that people are putting a cap on Karlsson's career potential at age 21. How can people be so certain that he won't develop into a player as good as Duncan Keith?

While it obviously isn't likely that EK will win a Norris trophy (not inconceivable that he will), the respective career trajectories of the two players indicate that Karlsson has a very good chance at being as good a player as Keith.

Karlsson at age 20-21: 45 points in 75 games and second in scoring on his NHL team.

Keith at age 20-21: 25 points in 75 games in the AHL and eighth on his team in scoring.

In pure physical talents Karlsson is miles ahead of what Keith was at the same age. There is no reason to say he couldn't possibly be as good as Keith 6-7 years from now.

 

[jbeck5]

I find it hilarious that people are putting a cap on Karlsson's career potential at age 21. How can people be so certain that he won't develop into a player as good as Duncan Keith?

While it obviously isn't likely that EK will win a Norris trophy (not inconceivable that he will), the respective career trajectories of the two players indicate that Karlsson has a very good chance at being as good a player as Keith.

Karlsson at age 20-21: 45 points in 75 games and second in scoring on his NHL team.

Keith at age 20-21: 25 points in 75 games in the AHL and eighth on his team in scoring.

In pure physical talents Karlsson is miles ahead of what Keith was at the same age. There is no reason to say he couldn't possibly be as good as Keith 6-7 years from now.

This is the way i see it. Very well said.

 

[Korpse]

Perhaps you're giving him too MUCH credit?

What eventually happens with defenders like Karlsson is one of three things:

1) They learn to defend and stop being liabilities in their own zone (think Dan Boyle)
2) They become PP specialists (think MAB)
3) They get replaced by someone who can play D AND O (think David Rundblad)

We get it. He was the best tasting cake in a freezer full of expired Twinkies.

1) Boyle is still impressive offensively
2) Bergeron was never near the level of Karlsson
3) Your uninformed if you think Rundblad is good at D

 

[Sensfanman]

He starts 57% of his shifts in the offensive zone and the GA/60 mins while Karlsson on the ice is 3.04 GA while it's at 2.70 when he is off the ice.

Karlsson had a Corsi Rel QoC of 0.491, 79th in the league of d-men with 20+ GP (237 players), and he had a Corsi Rel QoT of -0.698, 197th in the league (of 237).

For comparison, Vlasic had the same QoC but had a 1.650 QoT.

Where did you get that stat out of curiosity. Would like to see what the GA is with Kuba on the ice.

http://www.behindthenet.ca

With Kuba on, the GA/60 was 3.55 (2.35 off), Phillips was also 3.08 on, 2.58 off.

The Sv% while Kuba was on the ice was .883, Phillips .901, Karlsson .905.

Also an FYI, Karlsson was on the ice most with Kuba (32.7%), Phillips (32.0%) and since only 2 defensmen can play at once, that's over 60% of his time with those two.

 

[Minister of Offence]

1) Boyle is still impressive offensively
2) Bergeron was never near the level of Karlsson
3) Your uninformed if you think Rundblad is good at D

People would think Karlsson was a strong defensive player if he played in the SEL or AHL last year. They're just 20-21 years old lol.

 

[YNWA14]

Does anyone have any actual examples of Rundblad being bad at D? It seems most of the posters here have this idea that Rundblad is bad at defence because he's good at offence. He was playing huge minutes (ES, and PK) on one of the best teams in the SEL (which he was a big part of.)

Does Rundblad make mistakes on D? Sure, but from what I've seen most of his mistakes are due to his overly fancy style of play. He is pretty sound defensively when he's actually playing defence -- he doesn't have the same fundamental problems that Karlsson has (such as a hard time pivoting, and being small.)

 

[itscameron]

Does anyone have any actual examples of Rundblad being bad at D? It seems most of the posters here have this idea that Rundblad is bad at defence because he's good at offence. He was playing huge minutes (ES, and PK) on one of the best teams in the SEL (which he was a big part of.)

Does Rundblad make mistakes on D? Sure, but from what I've seen most of his mistakes are due to his overly fancy style of play. He is pretty sound defensively when he's actually playing defence -- he doesn't have the same fundamental problems that Karlsson has (such as a hard time pivoting, and being small.)

I don't have any links for you now, but I'll try to find some later. In most Skellefteå highlight videos I watched, Rundblad got overpowered or pushed around in front of his own net leading to an opposing team's goal.

 

[sg58]

Does anyone have any actual examples of Rundblad being bad at D? It seems most of the posters here have this idea that Rundblad is bad at defence because he's good at offence. He was playing huge minutes (ES, and PK) on one of the best teams in the SEL (which he was a big part of.)

Does Rundblad make mistakes on D? Sure, but from what I've seen most of his mistakes are due to his overly fancy style of play. He is pretty sound defensively when he's actually playing defence -- he doesn't have the same fundamental problems that Karlsson has (such as a hard time pivoting, and being small.)

I think most people have gotten that impression from us who watch him play on a weekly basis for a few years. He makes mistakes both because he's trying to be too cute with the puck, because of bad defensive decisions and because he's being outmuscled or outskated, despite his decent size and skating, which is worrying. He's also a bit lazy when it comes to the details of the defensive coverage.

 

[Marshal Rochambeau]

Whoever said he was NHL ready is taking that back now. He has underwhelmed in the game today. He was outplayed by Jared Cowen. He had turnovers in the defensive zone. He is still raw and will most likely start in the AHL.

 

[His Beardliness*]

It's one game. Rundblad is still the better player.

 

[Iamok]

Whoever said he was NHL ready is taking that back now. He has underwhelmed in the game today. He was outplayed by Jared Cowen. He had turnovers in the defensive zone. He is still raw and will most likely start in the AHL.

1) He's not used to the small ice
2) It's preseason.

 

[Korpse]

....

 

[Sensfanman]

It's one game. Rundblad is still the better player.

As of right now? Better than Karlsson? Not even close.

 

[Afro Thunder*]

It's one game. Rundblad is still the better player.

**** NO!

You should have watched the game.

 

[Korpse]

1) He's not used to the small ice
2) It's preseason.

If he was NHL ready neither would be an issue. Simple. I expect him to show more in the rest of preseason. Just glimpses as he learns the NA style. Mid January he will be on the team though.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Whoever said he was NHL ready is taking that back now. He has underwhelmed in the game today. He was outplayed by Jared Cowen. He had turnovers in the defensive zone. He is still raw and will most likely start in the AHL.

Every defenseman on the ice was outplayed by Cowen.