Player Discussion Erik Gudbranson - To trade or extend?

[Wo Yorfat]

 

[Breakers]

Gudbranson is a Don Cherry special in line with players like Bieksa and Girardi.
They are great teammates, they block shots, are nice guys etc etc but they straight up just aren't good at hockey anymore.
All of these players can't get the puck out their zone unless they shoot it out or simply ice it, which results in loss of possession.

Vancouver has been playing great and outshooting opponents and playing decent defense in the start of this season.
--In terms of shot differential Guddy is -46
LIKE HOW is that possible
--Edler is also bad but he essentially only played 2 games against edmonton and ottawa at the beginning of october.
--Guddy is dead last in defense zone loose puck recoveries.
-- and he isn't playing against top lines (Tanev is)

 

[krutovsdonut]

Gudbranson is a Don Cherry special in line with players like Bieksa and Girardi.
They are great teammates, they block shots, are nice guys etc etc but they straight up just aren't good at hockey anymore.
All of these players can't get the puck out their zone unless they shoot it out or simply ice it, which results in loss of possession.

not being good at skating the puck out or making break out passes that cross the blue line is not the same as not being able to get the puck out of your zone.

darryl keeping has been keeping detailed team clearance stats for two games. in those games
the team clearance rates when gudbranson gains possession are top 3. i watched him carefully last game. he definitely uses his team mates to get the puck out. there is nothing wrong with that.

 

[sting101]

not being good at skating the puck out or making break out passes that cross the blue line is not the same as not being able to get the puck out of your zone.

darryl keeping has been keeping detailed team clearance stats for two games. in those games
the team clearance rates when gudbranson gains possession are top 3. i watched him carefully last game. he definitely uses his team mates to get the puck out. there is nothing wrong with that.

yes i'm not gonna say he's a really good defenseman but you have to look at the context of usage for this player to understand why his coaches keep rolling him out for 18-22 minutes a game.

 

[Diamonddog01]

not being good at skating the puck out or making break out passes that cross the blue line is not the same as not being able to get the puck out of your zone.

darryl keeping has been keeping detailed team clearance stats for two games. in those games
the team clearance rates when gudbranson gains possession are top 3. i watched him carefully last game. he definitely uses his team mates to get the puck out. there is nothing wrong with that.

You realize you are interpreting these statistics differently than Darryl Keeping is right? He reposted Botchford's tweet regarding Gudbranson:



This whole notion that clearing the zone by giving up possession, or directly causing turnovers, is irrelevant and it's only about getting the puck out, regardless of what happens after does not accord with the creator of these statistics interpretation of them. I know your response is 'well obviously it's less ideal than passing it to a teammate' is completely at odds with how they are meant to be interpreted. This is solely your unique and bizarre spin on them. If you're going to appeal to authority by invoking Darryl Keeping and his stats you should better understand them and note that he agrees that Gudbranson has been very poor.

 

[krutovsdonut]

You realize you are interpreting these statistics differently than Darryl Keeping is right? He reposted Botchford's tweet regarding Gudbranson:



This whole thing that somehow giving up possession, or directly causing turnovers, is irrelevant and it's only about getting the puck out, regardless of whether it results in a turnover or the opponent gaining possession does not accord with the creator of these statistic's interpretation of them. This is solely your unique and bizarre spin on them. If you're going to appeal to authority by invoking Darryl Keeping and his stats you should better understand them and note that he agrees that Gudbranson has been very poor.

nobody said giving up possession or directly causing turnovers is irrelevant. i have repeatedly said the opposite. and the stats speak for themselves and they are not very complicated. i am not appealing to authority by invoking stats except to the extent i assume they are accurate. it is ridiculous for you to suggest i have to share the subjective opinions of someone recording facts in order to rely on those facts. nor do i think you grasp that keeping's opinion is not inconsistent with my take on the stats. keeping obviously believes direct transition is key to good dmen, which is why he started recording direct transition records. to some extent i agree with him, but i don't agree it is the only metric of a good dman.

bottom line, all i am saying is that over a short sample of two games the puck is getting cleared after gudbranson gets possession at a rate that is above the average of the canuck d and he also gets a high rate of possession recoveries compared to the other d. otoh, the rate of controlled clearances that follow his possession is below average. this seems to correlate to his preference for chipping the puck up the boards to a forward who then chips it out past the pinching dman, a strategy that results in loss of possession a lot of the time but occasionally leads to odd man rushes.

we need a higher sample and more data to draw conclusions about gudbranson other than that over two games he got the puck out very efficiently when he got possession, and he gets possession more than his peers. however, it is useful to keep those stats in mind and watch how often he gets the puck out by making a pass or chip to a teammate.

 

[Breakers]

not being good at skating the puck out or making break out passes that cross the blue line is not the same as not being able to get the puck out of your zone.

darryl keeping has been keeping detailed team clearance stats for two games. in those games
the team clearance rates when gudbranson gains possession are top 3. i watched him carefully last game. he definitely uses his team mates to get the puck out. there is nothing wrong with that.

Yeah 2 games
Look at some the other games
WPG = worst
EDM = worst
CGY = 2nd worst
OTT = worst
BOS = worst

 

[tantalum]

There is a large enough sample size...363 games worth.

 

[m9]

I like a lot of what Gudbranson brings, but not enough to give him $4 or $5 million with term. If there are other teams out there that value him highly, I think the Canucks would do well to move him.

The game is changing, but I would guess there are still GMs out there that would pay a decent price at the deadline to add a young 4/5 defender that brings a physical element.

I agree with this. If we could get him for 4 years, 2.5 million a year then sign me up. I like his skillset as well, you just have to not overpay for it. Let another team do that, and instead try to find a similar player on a cheaper contract that doesn't have the pedigree that always seems to inflate values.

nobody said giving up possession or directly causing turnovers is irrelevant. i have repeatedly said the opposite. and the stats speak for themselves and they are not very complicated. i am not appealing to authority by invoking stats except to the extent i assume they are accurate. it is ridiculous for you to suggest i have to share the subjective opinions of someone recording facts in order to rely on those facts. nor do i think you grasp that keeping's opinion is not inconsistent with my take on the stats. keeping obviously believes direct transition is key to good dmen, which is why he started recording direct transition records. to some extent i agree with him, but i don't agree it is the only metric of a good dman.

bottom line, all i am saying is that over a short sample of two games the puck is getting cleared after gudbranson gets possession at a rate that is above the average of the canuck d and he also gets a high rate of possession recoveries compared to the other d. otoh, the rate of controlled clearances that follow his possession is below average. this seems to correlate to his preference for chipping the puck up the boards to a forward who then chips it out past the pinching dman, a strategy that results in loss of possession a lot of the time but occasionally leads to odd man rushes.

we need a higher sample and more data to draw conclusions about gudbranson other than that over two games he got the puck out very efficiently when he got possession, and he gets possession more than his peers. however, it is useful to keep those stats in mind and watch how often he gets the puck out by making a pass or chip to a teammate.

I think there are some good points in here as well. The trend to hyper-focus on one metric or analytic is extremely strange in a game where there are so many different aspects to a player. I'm sure it's just to simplify it so people can consume it quicker, but it's extremely flawed. All I heard for a few years was Corsi, now it's zone transitions and shot attempts. Next year will be something else. I have seen this in NFL metrics as well where people are pushing their "metric" so that they can get their name out there and attached to the information before even proving if it means anything.

 

[I in the Eye]

There are stats that directly relate to creating goals, and there are stats that directly relate to preventing goals... Then there are stats that indirectly relate to creating and preventing goals. What variables should most and least be applied to hockey wins and losses (and individual player contributions to wins and losses), I leave up to the professional and armchair data scientists to decide the variables and variable priority order that makes sense. But I think it's an ongoing process about figuring out and capturing how variables should be ranked in importance to winning and losing hockey games, and individual player contributions to winning and losing hockey games. I'd expect the stats to change and evolve over time.

 

[Pavel96]

I agree with this. If we could get him for 4 years, 2.5 million a year then sign me up. I like his skillset as well, you just have to not overpay for it. Let another team do that, and instead try to find a similar player on a cheaper contract that doesn't have the pedigree that always seems to inflate values.

reports are that he turned down Florida's 18 M over 4 yrs. He's way too cool, has too much pedigree, wayyy too big n tough, and is too nice of a guy in the community to accept anything less than 4.5 a season. It's tough for the guy who traded for him to just walk away from something he gave up so much for just 2 years ago.

 

[Wo Yorfat]

Yeah 2 games
Look at some the other games
WPG = worst
EDM = worst
CGY = 2nd worst
OTT = worst
BOS = worst

I'm not the fact checking type, but assuming this is true, it's hard not to think that the person who put out the info over the last 2 games is well aware that those 2 games were a blip and is being really intellectually dishonest.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Yeah 2 games
Look at some the other games
WPG = worst
EDM = worst
CGY = 2nd worst
OTT = worst
BOS = worst

do you have a link? i can't navigate his website and as far as i know keeping only just started keeping the detailed team stats.

i scrolled back to the minnesota game on twitter. it only records "team" clearance totals without the details, but his team clearance total is 4th and his failed clearance rate is 3rd.

 

[krutovsdonut]

I'm not the fact checking type, but assuming this is true, it's hard not to think that the person who put out the info over the last 2 games is well aware that those 2 games were a blip and is being really intellectually dishonest.

ok smart guy. go find the game summaries. his website does not link to them. i just scrolled throught a crapload of twitter to get to minnesota.

http://dissecttheblueline.weebly.com/

 

[krutovsdonut]

his website lists detroit as an example. gudbranson was second best in team clearances that game, and fourth best in failure rate.

 

[krutovsdonut]

here is the washington game. again no detailed team stats, but he is worse on total clearances and second worse on clearance attempt fails.

 

[Wo Yorfat]

ok smart guy. go find the game summaries. his website does not link to them. i just scrolled throught a crapload of twitter to get to minnesota.

http://dissecttheblueline.weebly.com/

I wasn't taking a shot at you KD. I took your initial post to mean someone in media came out w a report showing only Guddys last 2 games. And if that's the case, I think it's super disingenuous.

 

[krutovsdonut]

I wasn't taking a shot at you KD. I took your initial post to mean someone in media came out w a report showing only Guddys last 2 games. And if that's the case, I think it's super disingenuous.

this is me looking at the keeping stats. i had a discussion with diamond dog over it during a postgame thread. i was originally responding to criticism of gudbranson's specific game based on keeping stats and pointing out his team clearance stats for that game were really good.

that was actually the first time keeping had included those stats. weirdly enough it was something i posted a day or two before that i wish someone would do.

then it happened again with the jersey game that people said he sucked but his clearance stats looked middle of the pack.

it is actually possible to look back at the earlier stats but that only tells you total team clearances, not whether they are controlled or not. with gudbranson that seems to be the issue so i didn't try and also i can't find keepings spreadsheets listed in one easy to read game by game list.

 

[Wo Yorfat]

Groovy, keep on keepin on. I don't even know who keeping is tbh, but agree it'd be a nice stat to have tracked.

 

[m9]

reports are that he turned down Florida's 18 M over 4 yrs. He's way too cool, has too much pedigree, wayyy too big n tough, and is too nice of a guy in the community to accept anything less than 4.5 a season. It's tough for the guy who traded for him to just walk away from something he gave up so much for just 2 years ago.

He gets 4 years 16 million on the open market for sure.. at the minimum. Probably more likely 5 years 22 million, or something like that. Hopefully we aren't the ones paying it. I do like him though, just not at that price.

 

[Melvin]

Marc Bergevin literally just signed Karl alzner to 5/24. Benning might be an idiot but he's not the only one.

 

[rypper]

https://twitter.com/dkeeping

He's tracking defenseman stats for the leafs and canucks this season. A pretty good follow on twitter.

 

[Nuckles]

Marc Bergevin literally just signed Karl alzner to 5/24. Benning might be an idiot but he's not the only one.

It seems like most GMs turn off their brain on July 1st.

 

[MS]

It seems like most GMs turn off their brain on July 1st.

Those GMs are dumb 365 days/year but the situation that makes it completely obvious only happens on July 1.

 

[Hit the post]

Marc Bergevin literally just signed Karl alzner to 5/24. Benning might be an idiot but he's not the only one.

heh, like I said, I'd hope our standards are higher than "at least our GM ain't the worst GM in the league"