Salary Cap: Ehlers signs 7x6, Nylander signs ?????

[DatSnipeMatthews]

This. What Ehlers, Pastrnak and Draisaitl do this year is mostly irrelevant. Sure it's nice to point at those numbers and compare them to what Nylander does but those numbers they put up weren't available when they signed their contract so it won't actually matter much at all if any.

Hm, I appreciate your input but I don't know if I agree. I think they are extremely comparable given that they were all drafted in 2014, all just signed this offseason, and all put up relatively comparable numbers last year (with Nylander having the lowest point total of the 4). However, I get that Nylander is in his contract year whereas the other 3 just signed their contracts. But at the same time, contracts nowadays are more about potential rather than past accomplishments. So ,Ehlers, Pasta and Drai got signed for their respective amounts based on their potential in the coming years. So if Nylander registers close to the same amount of points and possession numbers as those 3 this season, their contracts will definitely be a benchmark for Willy this summer.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I'm not so sure when making contract comparisons it's all that relevant using years that came AFTER signing of a deal What matters is the context that happened at the time of the negotiation of the comparison example.

When Elhers signed his deal he had one good seasons worth of production. If he had negotiated his contract after two seasons worth of good production (including a 70+ point one) then Chevy wouldn't have been able to get him locked up at six million per, it would have been a higher cap hit.

Sure, but the asset itself is still signed of X amount of dollars, and given his age\draft year\position\trajectory, he remains a comparable. RFA contracts are signed on a combination of previous performance (over a short sample) and a projection of value over the term of the contract. Therefore, incorporating the player's performance one year in continues to hold relevance in a negotiation.

That's as if saying Tarasenko could not be used as a comparable because his deal was signed prior to Pastrnak and Ehelrs' deals. However, it clearly was. Now, all within reason of course. Kucherov's deal is so nonsensically team friendly (even though it will burn them shortly) that it can't be used a comparable because its an outlier.

 

[Menzinger]

Why is that? They are comparable players
From the same draft year. Their contracts will start at the same time. If nylander has comparable production signed months apart It shouldn’t matter. When they do arbitration they don’t care about the month they are signed.

I still think he signs for lower years say 6 in the 6.5 range. If his contemporaries are performing similarly to him he will
Get paid similarly

Because Elhers opted to sign a new contract before the start of this season and so his new deal was made after only having 1 60+ point season, Nylander is opting not to sign a new deal until he's had a chance to prove his production value over the course of the year.

If Nylander has a 70-80 point season (something I'd say is well within the realm of possibility) he will be more proven than Elhers was when he signed his new deal and therefore his agent will be in a better position to ask for more money.

 

[Menzinger]

Sure, but the asset itself is still signed of X amount of dollars, and given his age\draft year\position\trajectory, he remains a comparable. RFA contracts are signed on a combination of previous performance (over a short sample) and a projection of value over the term of the contract. Therefore, incorporating the player's performance one year in continues to hold relevance in a negotiation.

That's as if saying Tarasenko could not be used as a comparable because his deal was signed prior to Pastrnak and Ehelrs' deals. However, it clearly was. Now, all within reason of course. Kucherov's deal is so nonsensically team friendly (even though it will burn them shortly) that it can't be used a comparable because its an outlier.

Sure Elhers contract definitely matters but at this point I'd say that's the low end/base of what Nylander's next deal will be.

If Nylander puts up 70+ points we will need to expect that he's going to be making more money than Elhers.

 

[Mess]

But Elhers production this season dosnt really matter with regards to the Nylander negotiations, it's his production before he signed that new deal which matters.

A 60ish point player post ELC is worth a contract likely in the 6ish million dollar range. If Nylander puts up 70+ points he's in a different price range.

The only difference is that Ehlers signed early, taking the guaranteed money and running now, while Willie is betting on himself this year, decided to wait it out and to try and maximize his return potential.

Ehlers is still in the last year of his ELC deal just like Nylander. No difference here.

Ehlers beat Nylander last year 64 points to 61 last year, and if he beats him again this year then what case can Nylander make that he makes more $$$ ?

It will mean Ehlers outproduced Nylander in a all 3 years of his ELC contract.

By your method no player would ever sign early because they would be leaving $$ on the table if their point production increases. Matthews can be signed July 2018 (after only 2 years) but your saying there is little chance of that because his 3 year will most likely be his highest therefore he should wait and play out his ELC to maximize his contract.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Sure Elhers contract definitely matters but at this point I'd say that's the low end/base of what Nylander's next deal will be.

If Nylander puts up 70+ points we will need to expect that he's going to be making more money than Elhers.

No one is disputing that. The range I've quoted is Ehlers - Pastrnak - Tarasenko (i.e. $6MM - $7.5MM), and have $7MM plugged in as his cap hold.

My main point in this thread is that when Nylander's agent enters the negotiation room, he won't be able to get "saitl" out of his mouth before Leafs' management hits him with "Ehlers." Which is the reason why Nylander has gone the gamble route and are trying to completely blow up in 17/18 to make himself an outlier.

 

[Menzinger]

The only difference is that Ehlers signed early, taking the guaranteed money and running now, while Willie is betting on himself this year, decided to wait it out and to try and maximize his return potential.

Ehlers is still in the last year of his ELC deal just like Nylander. No difference here.

Ehlers beat Nylander last year 64 points to 61 last year, and if he beats him again this year then what case can Nylander make that he makes more $$$ ?

It will mean Ehlers outproduced Nylander in a all 3 years of his ELC contract.

By your method no player would ever sign early because they would be leaving $$ on the table if their point production increases. Matthews can be signed July 2018 (after only 2 years) but your saying there is little chance of that because his 3 year will most likely be his highest therefore he should wait and play out his ELC to maximize his contract.

That's not what I'm suggesting at all. Many players will often still take the "safe route" and take the guaranteed money like Elhers did, while others will gamble like Nylander has. It's looking like Nylander's gamble is going to pay off considering he looks poised to have a big year in terms of offensive production.

What Elhers does in terms of production this year is quite frankly irrelevant to Nylander's contract negotiations. Contracts are decided by a combination of proven track record and future projections. Nylander will have a more proven track record when his agent signs his new deal and will therefore be able to get more money.

 

[Menzinger]

No one is disputing that. The range I've quoted is Ehlers - Pastrnak - Tarasenko (i.e. $6MM - $7.5MM), and have $7MM plugged in as his cap hold.

My main point in this thread is that when Nylander's agent enters the negotiation room, he won't be able to get "saitl" out of his mouth before Leafs' management hits him with "Ehlers." Which is the reason why Nylander has gone the gamble route and are trying to completely blow up in 17/18 to make himself an outlier.

Eh not sure id agree, I think there's more than a fair number of folks here who are expecting Nylander to sign for more or less what Elhers just did. And I don't think that's going to be the case.

As for the LD contract comparison, well, if Nylander hits PPG or above 8ish million could be within the realm of possibility. We're just going to have to wait and see how the season goes.

 

[Mess]

Because Elhers opted to sign a new contract before the start of this season and so his new deal was made after only having 1 60+ point season, Nylander is opting not to sign a new deal until he's had a chance to prove his production value over the course of the year.

If Nylander has a 70-80 point season (something I'd say is well within the realm of possibility) he will be more proven than Elhers was when he signed his new deal and therefore his agent will be in a better position to ask for more money.

Nylander drafted #8 overall Ehlers drafted #9 overall in 2014. Same age, same ELC contract signing, same draft class, same position etc etc.

Year 1 of ELC:
Nylander 6 goals 13 points vs Ehlers 15 goals 38 points ....... Winner Ehlers

Year 2 of ELC:
Nylander 22 goals 61 points vs. Ehlers 25 goals 64 points ... Winner Ehlers

Year 3 of ELC:
If Nylander and Ehlers both put up 70-80 points ...................... Winner Tie.

You believe Nylander is MORE proven and deserves more? Why ??

Nylander must outperform Ehlers and his contract this year to be in good negotiating position to ask for more it that is his comparable contract. Otherwise Lou Lam is holding the cards.

Note: The exception to the rule might a big jump in the salary cap ceiling so an agent can now negotiate based on % of team cap as opposed to individual player comparables because its a much bigger pie to divide up.

 

[Critical13]

Mess, did you quote yourself in your sig? A little vain, isn't it?

 

[Nithoniniel]

You believe Nylander is MORE proven and deserves more? Why ??

Ehlers signed his contract after two years. That's the comparison. His next year isn't of interest because it wasn't a factor in his contract. Just like they won't say that he's not as good as Kucherov and look at his contract.

Nylander when he signs will have played two high-quality seasons in the NHL, and dipped his toes in another season. Thus, he is more proven at the point he signs the contract than Ehlers, who had one high-quality season and another one where he performed distinctly worse.

 

[Mess]

Ehlers signed his contract after two years. That's the comparison. His next year isn't of interest because it wasn't a factor in his contract. Just like they won't say that he's not as good as Kucherov and look at his contract.

Nylander when he signs will have played two high-quality seasons in the NHL, and dipped his toes in another season. Thus, he is more proven at the point he signs the contract than Ehlers, who had one high-quality season and another one where he performed distinctly worse.

So all players that sign their contracts early have bad agents, and are cheating themselves if they continue to improve year by year? Essential Ehlers was stupid to sign and Nylander is smart to not sign.

Vice versa Lou Lam was naive (poor management decision) not to resign Nylander this summer, because now if his production goes up it will cost the Leafs more $$ and Cap.

So Ehlers and Pastrnak are no longer comparables because they signed and Nylander didn't?

So we shouldn't expect Matthews to sign next summer as he might put up 45-40- 85 points this year, (& get $11-$11.5 mil), but if he waits until his ELC ends he might score 50 - 50 & 100 points in year 3 ,win a Rocket and Hart etc and then get > McDavid $$$ (+$12.5 mil)?

PS. Aren't future contracts paying or future production, not past years?

 

[Nithoniniel]

So all players that sign their contracts early have bad agents, and are cheating themselves if they continue to improve year by year?

I have in no way said or indicated that.

Players that sign early use a smaller sample size, and trade the chance for a better contract with another good season for the immediate safety of a contract. That's nothing new.

Essential Ehlers was stupid to sign and Nylander is smart to not sign.

I have in no way said or indicated that.

I put absolutely no value in that decision. I was talking about how they relate as comparisons only.

So Ehlers and Pastrnak are no longer comparables because they signed and Nylander didn't?

I have in no way said or indicated that.

All I've said is that their production after signing their contract doesn't change how the contract itself works as a comparison.

If Connor Brown becomes a 100 point player this season, we're not going to use his contract as a comparison for other players, because that's not the player he was when he was signed.

So we shouldn't expect Matthews to sign next summer as he might put up 45-40- 85 points this year, but if he waits until his ELC ends he might score 50 - 50 100 points in year 3 ,win a Rocket and Hart etc and then get > McDavid $$$?

I have in no way said or indicated that.

Not in any way did I make a comment related to what we should expect from upcoming RFAs. All I did was comment on how contracts work as a comparison.

Seriously, Mess, if you want to have a conversation with people, respond to what they actually say. Don't invent stuff that you can argue against.

 

[FreeBird]

No one is disputing that. The range I've quoted is Ehlers - Pastrnak - Tarasenko (i.e. $6MM - $7.5MM), and have $7MM plugged in as his cap hold.

My main point in this thread is that when Nylander's agent enters the negotiation room, he won't be able to get "saitl" out of his mouth before Leafs' management hits him with "Ehlers." Which is the reason why Nylander has gone the gamble route and are trying to completely blow up in 17/18 to make himself an outlier.

Nylander is the only player that gets to play with Auston Matthews every game, how does that equate

 

[Mess]

David Pastrnak was drafted in the same draft as Nylander.

He put up 75 games 34 goals 36 assists 70 points and got a $6.66 AAV deal. [,933 PPG]

If Nylander puts up 30+ goals and 70 points is that not a good comparable for his next deal?

 

[Nithoniniel]

David Pastrnak was drafted in the same draft as Nylander.

He put up 75 games 34 goals 36 assists 70 points and got a $6.66 AAV deal. [,933 PPG]

If Nylander puts up 30+ goals and 70 points is that not a good comparable for his next deal?

Is this directed at me? In that case, I have in no way said or indicated otherwise.

Pastrnak put up that season before signing, so of course that makes a good comparison.

All I'm saying is that if he puts up 100 points this season, his contract doesn't become a comparison for 100 point players because that's not what he was when he signed. You were arguing using Ehlers performance this season when looking at his contract as a comparison, and it doesn't work like that.

 

[Menzinger]

Nylander drafted #8 overall Ehlers drafted #9 overall in 2014. Same age, same ELC contract signing, same draft class, same position etc etc.

Year 1 of ELC:
Nylander 6 goals 13 points vs Ehlers 15 goals 38 points ....... Winner Ehlers

Year 2 of ELC:
Nylander 22 goals 61 points vs. Ehlers 25 goals 64 points ... Winner Ehlers

Year 3 of ELC:
If Nylander and Ehlers both put up 70-80 points ...................... Winner Tie.

You believe Nylander is MORE proven and deserves more? Why ??

Nylander must outperform Ehlers and his contract this year to be in good negotiating position to ask for more it that is his comparable contract. Otherwise Lou Lam is holding the cards.

Note: The exception to the rule might a big jump in the salary cap ceiling so an agent can now negotiate based on % of team cap as opposed to individual player comparables because its a much bigger pie to divide up.

I don't know how many times this fact needs to be repeated....

The major difference here is that Elhers' agent negotiated his clients deal after just two ELC years of play. His agent could point to only one season of first line production (60+ points) when negotiating the deal. This current season (3rd ELC) year wasn't a factor in the deal beause it hadn't happened yet.

Nylander's agent will enter negotiations with the Leafs with Nylander having performed at a first line rate for two seasons, not just one. Thus he's in a much better negotiating position than Elher's agent was.

How Elhers performs this season has no baring on Nylander's negotiation. If Elhers was currently playing like garbage and hadn't scored a point yet, it's not as if the Leas would be able to use that against Nylander.

 

[Menzinger]

David Pastrnak was drafted in the same draft as Nylander.

He put up 75 games 34 goals 36 assists 70 points and got a $6.66 AAV deal. [,933 PPG]

If Nylander puts up 30+ goals and 70 points is that not a good comparable for his next deal?

It will be certainly taken into account. But is also worth noting that he, like Elhers, only had one season of first line level production when he signed his deal.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I don't know how many times this fact needs to be repeated....

The major difference here is that Elhers' agent negotiated his clients deal after just two ELC years of play. His agent could point to only one season of first line production (60+ points) when negotiating the deal. This current season (3rd ELC) year wasn't a factor in the deal beause it hadn't happened yet.

Nylander's agent will enter negotiations with the Leafs with Nylander having performed at a first line rate for two seasons, not just one. Thus he's in a much better negotiating position than Elher's agent was.

How Elhers performs this season has no baring on Nylander's negotiation. If Elhers was currently playing like garbage and hadn't scored a point yet, it's not as if the Leas would be able to use that against Nylander.

The first bolded statement is very true (assuming Nylander remains healthy and as productive as we are projecting throughout the season).

The second bolded is where our opinions diverge, but that's been established. Even though it is a fact that the timing of the deal will certainly change negotiations as you mention, it does not change the fact that a list of players of the same age, and the same draft year, and comparable production (we project) have a given number next to their name. Those are the comparables, and regardless of timing\circumstance, their contracts\performance remain valid to the negotiation.

I will note that in this discussion, there really isn't an incorrect answer. Nylander's agent will being saying the exact same thing you are currently, while the Leafs' management will be saying the same thing that Mess and I are saying. Both sides have validity, and are clearly motivated by either lowering or increasing the contract.

As an aside, I'm mad at you guys for making me agree with Mess. Y'all know I hate that.

 

[Mess]

It will be certainly taken into account. But is also worth noting that he, like Elhers, only had one season of first line level production when he signed his deal.

If Pastrnak is a good comparison to Nylander and his next deal, then can he do this?



I think he can.

I expect Nylander's numbers this year ~35 goals 70+ points will be pretty close to Pastrnak last year when he signed his new deal.

 

[MarMarSab3]

Nylander will be getting an 8x8 no doubt

 

[Legion34]

If Pastrnak is a good comparison to Nylander and his next deal, then can he do this?



I think he can.

I expect Nylander's numbers this year ~35 goals 70+ points will be pretty close to Pastrnak last year when he signed his new deal.

Willy has only scored 1 goal with a goalie in the net this year. I think 35 goals is a stretch. 70 pts maybe. But Like you I don’t see him dramatically outscoring the competition of ehlers and pasta

 

[mix1home]

Nylander will be getting an 8x8 no doubt

no he will not. Did you read this thread? He is probably getting 6-6.66 x7 or x8 if his production this season matches his comparables and he has good ones to outperform here to get to 7 or 8 mil range. Oilers being stupid with Drai does not set the bar higher.
Only chance is that salary cap will go up much, but we all hear there is resistance among players to raise that.

 

[Menzinger]

If Pastrnak is a good comparison to Nylander and his next deal, then can he do this?



I think he can.

I expect Nylander's numbers this year ~35 goals 70+ points will be pretty close to Pastrnak last year when he signed his new deal.

Though he'll also be more proven than Pasternak who only had one big season's worth of production before signing his latest deal. Which would likely suggest Nylander gets a bit higher (say 7ish million).

 

[mix1home]

Though he'll also be more proven than Pasternak who only had one big season's worth of production before signing his latest deal. Which would likely suggest Nylander gets a bit higher (say 7ish million).

Or he takes a team friendly deal to win here. We dont know yet.
Or he gets into sophomore slump for 15 games, misses comparables' benchmarks and then signs for 5.5M.