Blue Jays Discussion: Edwin, Donaldson, Saunders, Sanchez, Estrada to the ASG

[zeke]

And where in that article does he refer to it as "the goal"? He's speculating on how big consistent success would be in Toronto. And he's 100% right.

He's been consistent in all his interviews on the themes and priorities of his management philosophy.

You agree with him, that's fine. I don't.

 

[zeke]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/2013-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions-1.html

You've been down this road before, and I assume I'm not alone in the struggle to see how the #3 and #6 ranked free agents of 2013 qualify as "2nd/3rd tier".

there were free agents getting more than double their money.

so yes, 2nd/3rd tier.

 

[Discoverer]

there were free agents getting more than double their money.

so yes, 2nd/3rd tier.

Ohhhh, I see. Well I really wish the previous management team had focused more on winning now instead of cheaping out on a 2nd/3rd tier free agent like Russell Martin.

I guess if Shapiro had really been interested in winning he would have found a way to fit some of those top-tier free agents into Cleveland's $77 million payroll.

 

[hoglund]

Firmly secure a wild card spot? There are 6 teams within 1 game of the wildcard so this idea of firmly securing a wild card spot is a myth especially with 78+ games left.

Very true, there are too many games left, in 1919 the Reds were 10 1/2 games out on July 4th and went on to win the world series. the point is it's way too early to talk playoffs.

 

[Eyedea]

Very true, there are too many games left, in 1919 the Reds were 10 1/2 games out on July 4th and went on to win the world series. the point is it's way too early to talk playoffs.

You could just look at recent years to find second half surges. '07 Rockies are the prime example of "anything can happen" when they won like 14 of their last 15 games to pass the Padres for the wildcard spot.

September 1st 2011 the Red Sox were leading the division (0.5 over the Yankees) and ahead of the Rays by 9 games. They missed out on the postseason in their final game.

 

[hockeywiz542]

before the 2016 season started, the toronto blue jays wanted to ship michael saunders to the los angeles angels as part of a three-way deal to acquire jay bruce from the cincinnati reds.

Bruce, by the way, is having a resurgent season, slugging .544 with an ops of .858 and 17 dingers - the kind of numbers that make jays executives weep about the trade not working out.

At least they would if the guy they failed to trade - saunders - wasn’t having the best season of his career.

Saunders is now one of the blue jays’ best hitters and that’s saying something because the team isn’t light on great hitters. Saunders has been better than jose bautista, edwin encarnacion, kevin pillar and troy tulowitzki, sporting a career-best wrc+ at 140.

Wrc+, or weighted runs creation, is a metric that measures runs per plate appearance, scaled, where 100 is average. It is both league and park adjusted and based on weighted on-base percentage (woba).

A wrc+ of 100 is average. Any wrc+ above 100 represents an above average big league hitter, and saunders is at 140, or worth 40 runs more than the average major leaguer. Only josh donaldson is besting saunders with a 151. Bautista is at 118 while encarnacion is at 133.

What was saunders’ highest wrc+ before this season? It was 126 in 2014 - the year the jays felt he was a player about to break out and worth acquiring. I think it’s safe to say that saunders has broken out.

By comparison, jay bruce’s wrc+ is 123. He would have made an impact in toronto, just not the profound impact that saunders has made.

as it stands, the best potential free agents in baseball as ranked by wrc+ are yoenis cespedes, edwin encarnacion, jose bautista, michael saunders, mark trumbo, franklin gutierrez, david freese, carlos santana and luis valbuena. Note that there are three blue jays on that list, good for over half of the jays’ current home run production. Saunders is the youngest of those three blue jays and is also among the youngest going on the free agent slugging market. That makes him much more desirable assuming he sustains his power production.

And this newly-found power production is something everyone will be scrutinizing. How, exactly, has saunders become this good this fast?

Many would say his results this season is what happens when a good player finally gets healthy. Others would even argue that saunders had a lot to prove going into a walk year, coupled with a chip on his shoulder because the jays tried to flip him out of town. Or is it that he’s simply gotten better?

All of the above.

 

[Canada4Gold]

and saunders is at 140, or worth 40 runs more than the average major leaguer.

I'm not the best with these stats, but isn't this wrong? I thought 140 meant you were 40% better than league average, not 40 runs better

 

[Discoverer]

I'm not the best with these stats, but isn't this wrong? I thought 140 meant you were 40% better than league average, not 40 runs better

Yep. Keep in mind, he also says this:

But while Saunders slugging like he’s never slugged before is a boon for a Blue Jays squad still searching airport lost and found kiosks for Troy Tulowitzki’s bat...

I don't think he's watched the Jays the last couple months...

 

[Epictetus]

If 100 is league average, and Saunders is at 140+, that means he's creating 40% more runs than league average, not 40 more runs.

Anyway, I still think players get paid from on-the-surface stats such as home runs, wins, saves, rbi's, etc. rather than stats like wRC+, which the article seems to argue that, because Saunders has a high wRC+ he deserves a super big contract. That might be a fair conclusion to reach, but it doesn't mean the market operates that way.

 

[metafour]

yes, spending their money on 2nd/3rd tier analytics darlings like bourn and swisher was absolutely that.

as it turns out, the risk management approach didn't manage risk as well as they hoped.

You think that signing ~30 year old defensively driven Michael Bourn, who's value came almost exclusively in his legs, was "risk management"? There are few "types" of players in baseball who prove to be more "risky" than this subgroup.

Both of those signings were quite clearly risky from the start. Bourn due to the potential of physical collapse killing his production (which is what happened), and Swisher due to his age. They took on those risks to sign those two because Bourn was coming off 4.8, 4.4, 3.8, 6.2 WAR seasons while Swisher was coming off 4.3, 3.4, 4.0 WAR seasons. Even with expected decline, there was hope that they'd provide enough value to push them into the playoffs.

What would you call Alex Anthopolous' biggest signing (Russell Martin) by comparison? Was he not also a "2nd/3rd tier analytics darling"? He was coming off two big seasons in Pittsburgh after 4 straight seasons of ~2 WAR performance. Hardly an "elite free agent".

 

[Discoverer]

If 100 is league average, and Saunders is at 140+, that means he's creating 40% more runs than league average, not 40 more runs.

Anyway, I still think players get paid from on-the-surface stats such as home runs, wins, saves, rbi's, etc. rather than stats like wRC+, which the article seems to argue that, because Saunders has a high wRC+ he deserves a super big contract. That might be a fair conclusion to reach, but it doesn't mean the market operates that way.

There are very few teams, if any, that still pay free agents based on traditional stats.

 

[Scrub*]

Where can i find stats for this season with roof open and roof closed. Canada day was a pitchers duel with roof closed then they open it up and the ball flies everywhere it's actually quite the contrast , like playing on 2 different fields.

 

[Loosie]

Where can i find stats for this season with roof open and roof closed. Canada day was a pitchers duel with roof closed then they open it up and the ball flies everywhere it's actually quite the contrast , like playing on 2 different fields.

I know the ball flies a lot better with roof open, I mean Donaldson's long drive in the bottom of the 19th likely would have been gone with the roof open.

It's why many were upset with the roof being closed over the entire playoffs last year.

 

[zeke]

You think that signing ~30 year old defensively driven Michael Bourn, who's value came almost exclusively in his legs, was "risk management"? There are few "types" of players in baseball who prove to be more "risky" than this subgroup.

Both of those signings were quite clearly risky from the start. Bourn due to the potential of physical collapse killing his production (which is what happened), and Swisher due to his age. They took on those risks to sign those two because Bourn was coming off 4.8, 4.4, 3.8, 6.2 WAR seasons while Swisher was coming off 4.3, 3.4, 4.0 WAR seasons. Even with expected decline, there was hope that they'd provide enough value to push them into the playoffs.

What would you call Alex Anthopolous' biggest signing (Russell Martin) by comparison? Was he not also a "2nd/3rd tier analytics darling"? He was coming off two big seasons in Pittsburgh after 4 straight seasons of ~2 WAR performance. Hardly an "elite free agent".

Bourn was considered the smart bargain of that free agent class by the analytics community.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/michael-bourn-joins-indians-roster-of-interest/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/michael-bourns-market-value/

 

[theaub]

Has anyone been able to prove that? I've never seen anything conclusive in that regard.

The Smoak HR on Friday looked like a routine FB to left off the bat and just carried forever.

 

[Discoverer]

Bourn was considered the smart bargain of that free agent class by the analytics community.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/michael-bourn-joins-indians-roster-of-interest/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/michael-bourns-market-value/

Shouldn't signing one of the mostly highly rated free agents on the market to a significantly cheaper deal than what was expected be considered a good thing?

 

[Epictetus]

There are very few teams, if any, that still pay free agents based on traditional stats.

Can't see some of these premium relief pitchers, who are non-closers, getting more money than some closers, who have...saves. Someone like Will Harris was probably going to be forever underpaid, but now that he's a closer, and saves, will surely get paid.

I think someone like Chris Tillman, with his 10 wins and counting combined with average to slightly above average everything else, is about to get paid.

If you can hit 20+ HR and drive in runs, regardless of your strike out percentage, and minimal OBP, you also carve out a demand within the league.

Bourn was considered the smart bargain of that free agent class by the analytics community.

The Cleveland Indians, heading into 2016, out of all MLB teams, are paying the most to players who are no longer playing for the team. Swisher, Bourne, and C. Johnson.

I don't think that's a good outcome for a team that wants sustainability.

Maybe those signings have led them to adopt this new kind of view?

 

[zeke]

Shouldn't signing one of the mostly highly rated free agents on the market to a significantly cheaper deal than what was expected be considered a good thing?

depends who is doing the rating.

lots of teams have attempted to manage risk in recent years not by not spending money, but by spreading that money over multiple 2nd/3rd tier types who might not be traditional star types but whose fips and dwars and age curves apparently make them more valuable than they seem.

but it hasn't ended up being any less risky.

 

[Discoverer]

Can't see some of these premium relief pitchers, who are non-closers, getting more money than some closers, who have...saves. Someone like Will Harris was probably going to be forever underpaid, but now that he's a closer, and saves, will surely get paid.

Look at the size of the contracts signed by non-closers Andrew Miller and Darren O'Day the last couple years. Look what Houston was willing to give up for Ken Giles and his half season as a closer. It's far from perfect and there will always be exceptions, but teams are moving away from paying for things the player has little-to-no control over.

I think someone like Chris Tillman, with his 10 wins and counting combined with average to slightly above average everything else, is about to get paid.

If he keeps this up over the rest of the season, he'll probably get paid like the league-average innings-eater he's been over the last few years.

If you can hit 20+ HR and drive in runs, regardless of your strike out percentage, and minimal OBP, you also carve out a demand within the league.

That's what Pedro Alvarez seemed to be thinking heading into free agency, too.

 

[Discoverer]

but it hasn't ended up being any less risky.

I would be very interested to see the evidence behind this.

Not the mention it depends entirely on the current construction of the team.

 

[Scrub*]

I know the ball flies a lot better with roof open, I mean Donaldson's long drive in the bottom of the 19th likely would have been gone with the roof open.

It's why many were upset with the roof being closed over the entire playoffs last year.

Yeah that will probably be the case again this year. Question remains where are these stats or do i need to go through each game this year and add them up manually.

We go though the first couple months of the season the last 2 years, and the team that we saw in April or May is far from the team we see from June on. Could it be mostly from the roof being closed?

Fangraphs projects us to be the highest scoring team for the rest of this season.

 

[LaCarriere]

Yet here was a huge boost in attendance the last half of the 2015 season that was not reflected in the 2016 budget. I'll be very surprised if it's increased in 2017

The attendance increase fell inline pretty much with the last ~60 games of the year, or 2 months (out of 6 regular season months).

It's ridiculous to think any major budget increases would happen based on a 2 month increase in attendance (which also saw the team play at nearly .700 clip). If the Jays go on any sort of equally bad losing stretch, those fans are going to disappear just as fast as they showed up.

 

[frost king]

The attendance increase fell inline pretty much with the last ~60 games of the year, or 2 months (out of 6 regular season months).

It's ridiculous to think any major budget increases would happen based on a 2 month increase in attendance (which also saw the team play at nearly .700 clip). If the Jays go on any sort of equally bad losing stretch, those fans are going to disappear just as fast as they showed up.

Actually, I think before the season even started, the Jays had already surpassed last years attendance figures. All of there gains this year will be based from April until July. They were sold out basically the rest of the way, from August onwards last year.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Hope JD hits a homerun tonight off Volquez and I hope he shoots Volquez a "crybaby face" after Volquez threw at him 3 times last year and mocked his complaining with a crybaby face.

 

[trellaine201]

Do you think Shep is just waiting for an excuse to blow this team up and bring in his own players think can win?