Easy Stanley Cup win for Tampa?

[illpucks]

Does Stamkos even want to play ? Dress him, he’s gotta be close to returning

and then the choke begins

 

[Rondo Hatton]

Would prefer if this thread just disappeared.

No way! I love reading all the experts talking about how great the Islanders are

 

[DFC]

There's this constant attempt by people against the theory, and to be absolutely fair I think that's because people who propagate the theory do so poorly, to ridicule the importance of "size" or "grit." I think that misses the point. It's not about size. It's not about grit. It's about defense. It's about playing responsible system hockey. It's about players who can do all the basic things. That includes finish checks, hitting players, bodying puck-carriers off the puck, but it also includes blocking shots, active sticks to steal pucks, deflecting passes, lifting sticks, it includes battling for position in front of their net, it includes clearing space in front of your net for your goalie to have vision, it includes clearing pucks off the crease. It's about getting bodies in sticks in seams to discourage passes, to discourage shots. In all those things, size helps. Grit helps. But it's not reducible to size or grit. A player like Blake Coleman is 5'11" 200+ pounds. He's not small, he's not necessarily the biggest guy though, he certainly doesn't epitomize "size". But what he, and Goodrow, and Maroon, and these other players who you estimate to have little or no value bring to the table collectively is immeasurable. Now has sheer size helped? Yeah it's helped. It's helped tremendously even in this Islanders series, the Islanders have largely been unable to body the lightning around. And it definitely paid dividends vs. a relatively small Boston team.

But look around you. Look at the other teams still in the playoffs. Look at the teams even who made it to the second round. It is far more important to have a good team than to have a good player. Even now, Tampa is missing a key player or key players, depending on Point's status after the Pelech hit, that hasn't stopped them. Tampa is a good team now, even without Stamkos. And if Stamkos were to return but instead Point was gone, or Stamkos returned but Kucherov was gone, the team would be fine. Because a system isn't about a player. It's about the ability for a group of individuals to execute a concept. Tampa is in the final, few people are surprised. But most people I've seen who have this top-heavy concept of hockey around these boards have had a large reaction of shock, as teams like Dallas, and Vegas, and New York make the conference finals. Tampa is in the final, and not Toronto, or Pittsburgh, or Edmonton, or pick your other high-octane scoring machine, not because they have star players. Plenty of teams have star players. They're in the final because they can execute good system hockey.

It's really hard to have this discussion with someone who clearly hasnt watched the games. Our biggest struggle in the playoffs has been our scoring dries up at the worst time. Particularly the star players. They've been a lot harder to shut down this year. If I had one complaint about us right now, it's that the top line is carrying us a bit too much.

 

[North Country]

All you have to do is look at the team size chart articles the last three years and compare to playoff success.

Washington changed their game plan to use their size in game 5? and then tiny Tampa didn’t stand a chance. I’m pretty sure the Capitals were the biggest team in the league that year per article.

Cooper and the front office understood they were way too small for the playoffs.

Once again, 4 of the top 7 biggest team in the NHL are still playing. 4 of the 7! Size through height and weight is a huge factor!

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Not if Dallas keeps getting those lucky bounces.

I expect the Vegas series to go 7. Regression toward the mean.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

You’re not understanding.

Tampa was the smallest team in the league by far just two years ago and they’re now the 7th heaviest. They would dominate in the lower contact regular season and then flop in the playoffs when things got physical.

The biggest teams height/weight are the ones advancing the last few years and it’s no coincidence.

Cooper made it clear they had to get way bigger in his interview at the draft. They sure did!

I don't think that's accurate. Pittsburgh won back to back Cups with a relatively small-ish roster.

I think St. Louis and Washington winning recently is causing recency bias.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

That was always the narrative, but never quite true.

You know what the biggest difference this year might be? A healthy Ondrej Palat. Our stars have been shut down in past playoffs, particularly in the biggest moments. That's not happening right now, and I don't think it's a coincidence that our stars are playing with Ondrej Palat.

You can point to size and whatnot, but our defense has always been big, and the guys who are carrying are offense aren't new to the team, nor do they play with guys new to the team. Having big bodies on the bench helps when games get out of hand, for sure, and I think that's something Maroon, in particular, brings to the table. But make no mistake, this has been all about Point, Kucherov, and Hedman.

Not only that, but Coleman too does wonders. Also, Cooper has made tremendous progress as a coach. The biggest Tampa asset is versatility, they look comfortable in all scenarios so far.

 

[joe dirte]

Yes, and that applies to any team. This cup will count, it will. It will literally be edged in the cup. Say Islanders win it it all - anyone think the “Trotz two cups in three years with two different teams” narrative would not be part of his legacy? Of course not. Likewise, if eg Hedman dominates and Tampa wins, anyone would be able to credibly say - yes he’s good but he just couldn’t deliver when it mattered. Of course not. These playoffs are for the Stanley Cup, make no mistake about it.

My personal opinion is that this playoffs is a bit of a joke. It feels like a peewee tournament to me. That said Bolts fans deserve to enjoy it, peewee tournament or not.

Quite frankly this Bolts team is so loaded id like to see them win another too. Theyre unquestionably the best team assembled in this time period and 2 or 3 cups is fitting anyway.

 

[joe dirte]

No way! I love reading all the experts talking about how great the Islanders are

Lol. Theyre so outclassed by the Bolts its hilarious.

 

[North Country]

I don't think that's accurate. Pittsburgh won back to back Cups with a relatively small-ish roster.

I think St. Louis and Washington winning recently is causing recency bias.

Teams are playing with a heavier style game plan since Washington flipped the switch on Tampa. Tampa was cruising.

Compare the size of teams to success by year since Washington changed their plan against Tampa. Size is dominating.

St. Louis Blues last year. Size.

 

[Imnotagoodposter]

The islanders look like dogshit

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Teams are playing with a heavier style game plan since Washington flipped the switch on Tampa. Tampa was cruising.

Compare the size of teams to success by year since Washington changed their plan against Tampa. Size is dominating.

St. Louis Blues last year...

But you said "the last few years". That's the last two years. Prior to that, Pittsburgh won back to back Cups with a team that wasn't very big. And even the Hawks' Cup winners weren't exactly massive. They had a couple of big players, but by and large they were built more on skill/possession ability than to be bruisers.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

I don't think that's accurate. Pittsburgh won back to back Cups with a relatively small-ish roster.

I think St. Louis and Washington winning recently is causing recency bias.

Playing styles seem to be cyclical in this league. When the Pens won their cups, they created the model of using speed to win. And then everyone built a quick team. Then when Washington won, they added size to the equation.

I think we would have struggled against both Columbus and New York without being able to throw some weight around. One of the reasons we got swept last year was the fact that our forecheck was completely ineffective. We couldn't counter the trap with dump and chase and ended up having no possession to show for it.

 

[North Country]

But you said "the last few years". That's the last two years. Prior to that, Pittsburgh won back to back Cups with a team that wasn't very big. And even the Hawks' Cup winners weren't exactly massive. They had a couple of big players, but by and large they were built more on skill/possession ability than to be bruisers.

This years 4 teams and back to Washington’s Cup is the 3 years I’m speaking of.

Teams noticed how Washington flipped the script on Tampa.

Tampa noticed too and went from the smallest team in the league to one of the heaviest in only two years!!

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Playing styles seem to be cyclical in this league. When the Pens won their cups, they created the model of using speed to win. And then everyone built a quick team. Then when Washington won, they added size to the equation.

I think we would have struggled against both Columbus and New York without being able to throw some weight around. One of the reasons we got swept last year was the fact that our forecheck was completely ineffective. We couldn't counter the trap with dump and chase and ended up having no possession to show for it.

This years 4 teams and back to Washington’s Cup is the 3 years I’m speaking of.

Teams noticed how Washington flipped the script on Tampa.

Tampa noticed too and went from the smallest team in the league to one of the heaviest in only two years!!

I think it's less about size and more about adding players who play with grit and aren't afraid to get their noses dirty.

For example one of the additions, Blake Coleman, isn't adding size. He's around 5'11 and around 195-200 lbs. But he plays a gritty style of game.

It's similar to how the Pens were able to get through the grind of the playoffs despite not being a "big" team. They had a lot of gritty guys that didn't mind getting their noses dirty, even if they weren't big. Guys like Kunitz, Hornqvist, Rust, Hagelin, etc. are all under 6'0 and all 200 lbs. or less. But they'll go to the dirty areas.

Hell, even with the additions the guys leading Tampa to their Cup up front are still small guys. Kucherov and Point are on the small side for NHL forwards, yet that's not stopping them from succeeding in the playoffs because they're not afraid to go to the dirty areas of the ice to create offense.

So IMO, it's less about getting "big" necessarily and more about adding guys who are willing to pay a price to get the job done.

 

[North Country]

I think it's less about size and more about adding players who play with grit and aren't afraid to get their noses dirty.

For example one of the additions, Blake Coleman, isn't adding size. He's around 5'11 and around 195-200 lbs. But he plays a gritty style of game.

It's similar to how the Pens were able to get through the grind of the playoffs despite not being a "big" team. They had a lot of gritty guys that didn't mind getting their noses dirty, even if they weren't big. Guys like Kunitz, Hornqvist, Rust, Hagelin, etc. are all under 6'0 and all 200 lbs. or less. But they'll go to the dirty areas.

Hell, even with the additions the guys leading Tampa to their Cup up front are still small guys. Kucherov and Point are on the small side for NHL forwards, yet that's not stopping them from succeeding in the playoffs because they're not afraid to go to the dirty areas of the ice to create offense.

So IMO, it's less about getting "big" necessarily and more about adding guys who are willing to pay a price to get the job done.

Yes, individuals of every size, but we’re talking overall TEAM size. Tampa knew they were way too small so went and got bigger. Again, from the tiniest team to one of the heaviest in only two years!! Cooper said they needed to get much bigger in the NHL draft interview.

 

[kabidjan18]

It's really hard to have this discussion with someone who clearly hasnt watched the games. Our biggest struggle in the playoffs has been our scoring dries up at the worst time. Particularly the star players. They've been a lot harder to shut down this year. If I had one complaint about us right now, it's that the top line is carrying us a bit too much.

"Scoring dries up at times"

Read my post on Vegas after game 4. The common diagnosis after a low-scoring game is that "scoring dried up, get more offense." Can happen a lot of different ways. Sometimes they score first. Or sometimes the other way around, if you're Vegas in the Vegas game, if you're NYI in the NYI game, you score first. But then give up a tying goal. And then a go-ahead goal. Once down a goal, against a good system team, it's not easy to come back.

Sometimes it's simply impractical to expect to regularly score large goal totals on a good team. With a good Defensive system. If, I don't know, say they have elite defensemen. Like, just trying for size, Duncan Keith, or Nik Hjalmarsson, or Brent Seabrook, or Johnny Oduya, and Jonathan Toews.

There's a point at which the question should reasonably shift from "how do we score more goals" to "how do we prevent them from scoring goals?" And maybe you can't. Maybe your personnel isn't suited for stopping scoring and you just get run over, in which case, if you give up 5 goals, what is the expectation? You score 6? Bit of a stretch. Or their defensive personnel is so excellent that, more frequently than not, they can hold you to 1 goal or scoreless. That's a tough one. Because then you gotta keep them to 1 goal or scoreless. And maybe you don't have the team composition for that. But that would be a weakness in the team composition. And this can oscillate from game to game. Maybe they have a good defense but not an elite defense, and they can hold you to low goal totals some games but not all games, in which case all you have to do is hold them to low scoring totals in one more game than they hold you to.

There are two schools of thought to answer the problem of "our opponents scored 4 goals." There are two ways to address that with your bottom 6. The first school of thought, and this is personified by Kyle Dubas, the thought that "We will increase depth scoring by loading our bottom 6 with scoring, playmaking forwards." That's one way to do it. So if you give up 4, but your top lines score 3, and your bottom lines score 2, 3+2 is 5, you win the game. Another school of thought. You don't let them score 4 goals. You don't let it get to that point. That's why maybe you bring in a guy like Barclay Goodrow. Career about a 1/4 point per game. Or a Blake Coleman. .39 PPG over his career. Or you sign a guy like Patrick Maroon. You bring in Zach Bogosian, you bring in Luke Schenn. That's maybe why you use 7 defensemen and 11 forwards.

When scoring inexplicably dries up against good defensive teams, there are two approaches you can take. The first is to try to demand more scoring from your players. The second is to ensure that when your scoring dries up inexplicably, their scoring dries up as well.

And I think it's worked pretty well for the lightning so far this year.

 

[Sky04]

Yes, individuals of every size, but we’re talking overall TEAM size. Tampa knew they were way too small so went and got bigger. Again, from the tiniest team to one of the heaviest in only two years!! Cooper said they needed to get much bigger in the NHL draft interview.

You keep saying this but it's not even close to true. Tampa has had the biggest defense in the league for years, the only additions on forward for size are Goodrow and Maroon.....so you're saying 2 forwards tilted their team from smallest to biggest?

There's a logical fallacy here.

They didn't get "big players", they got guys who skate better and play harder.

 

[Merrrlin]

I made this for a different thread, but Tampa hasn't really yet faced a significant challenge 5v5.

NYI faring the best in scoring chances, but also failing miserably on their PP. They had a great game in game 3, which is evening things out.

Tampa just rolling over people. They create the best chances and the finish them, and they have the best goalie in every series.

 

[God King Fudge]

I think it's less about size and more about adding players who play with grit and aren't afraid to get their noses dirty.

For example one of the additions, Blake Coleman, isn't adding size. He's around 5'11 and around 195-200 lbs. But he plays a gritty style of game.

It's similar to how the Pens were able to get through the grind of the playoffs despite not being a "big" team. They had a lot of gritty guys that didn't mind getting their noses dirty, even if they weren't big. Guys like Kunitz, Hornqvist, Rust, Hagelin, etc. are all under 6'0 and all 200 lbs. or less. But they'll go to the dirty areas.

Hell, even with the additions the guys leading Tampa to their Cup up front are still small guys. Kucherov and Point are on the small side for NHL forwards, yet that's not stopping them from succeeding in the playoffs because they're not afraid to go to the dirty areas of the ice to create offense.

So IMO, it's less about getting "big" necessarily and more about adding guys who are willing to pay a price to get the job done.

Bingo. Most of the size is on D, also. Goodrow is the second biggest F we have behind Maroon and he's 6'2, 215 which isn't exactly monster. Then you look at the D- 6'6, 6'5, 6'3, 6'3, 6'3, 6'2. All between 215-230.

Guys like Goodrow and Maroon and Coleman add a certain style of play that was completely missing from Tampa. They gave up a lot to get those guys but it's hard to say it isn't paying off right now because Tampa can play however they need to. They have the D to shut teams down and play tight games if needed, they have the F to win in a run and gun shootout if they need to and they've got some guys who can crash and bang if they need to open up space for the F.

Then there's Vasilevski who's just playing stupid right now.

Hard not to feel good about them right now.

 

[J bo Jeans]

Yes, individuals of every size, but we’re talking overall TEAM size. Tampa knew they were way too small so went and got bigger. Again, from the tiniest team to one of the heaviest in only two years!! Cooper said they needed to get much bigger in the NHL draft interview.

Average weight went from 200lbs to 203 please tell me how they got way bigger. And in terms of height theyre ranked 15th in the league.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Average weight went from 200lbs to 203 please tell me how they got way bigger. And in terms of height theyre ranked 15th in the league.

They play larger if that makes sense. They get to the dirty areas more than they ever did. I think if you paid attention to this team early on this season you remember they made an entire change in how they want to play. Sacrificed some wins to get this new style down. Then they added grit in Coleman and Goodrow. They also added Maroon and Bogo who are both bigger players. But those guys aren't huge differences in the score sheet as they hardly play. It's been more about the change in gritty style. The additions help too. It would be dumb to ignore that. So its a bit of both. I dont think people are wrong about the size issues but I also dont think that is the whole story.

 

[Sentinel]

Isles gonna curbstomp tampa in 4

This aged well.

 

[Metroid]

This aged well.

Like I replied before.
Ixnay on my inxjay

 

[Sky04]

Tampa possibly goes into the finals with a fully healthy lineup.

Palat-Point-Kucherov
Stamkos-Cirelli-Killorn
Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow
Maroon-Paquette-Johnson

Hedman-Shattenkirk
McDonagh-Bogosian
Sergachev-Cernak

Vasi