Dylan Strome Appreciation Thread

[Robsker]

60-70. 85+ wouldn't surprise me if he pulled it off though.

55-65 points

 

[LordKOTL]

My estimation is about 25G/30-35A depending on who he's paired with.

 

[Any Colour You Like]

I'd be real happy with 60+ points out of Strome. Expecting 55-65.

 

[Kevin Musto]

A poorly conditioned Strome out of Arizona managed to put up about 60 points and yet some of you are predicting he does worse than this...

 

[Kurtosis]

A poorly conditioned Strome out of Arizona managed to put up about 60 points and yet some of you are predicting he does worse than this...

You should start an official prediction thread.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

A poorly conditioned Strome out of Arizona managed to put up about 60 points and yet some of you are predicting he does worse than this...

It's almost as though production and development isn't always linear. I personally don't think Strome will produce less than last season (have him at 65), but it also wouldn't shock me. Not every 21 year old sees their production improve, even though we all generally assume it will.

For what it's worth, the athletic had Strome in the honorable mentions (outside the top 10, Shaw was #1) of the players they expect to regress article. Here's their case...

Dylan Strome, C, Chicago Blackhawks: As fun as it was to see Strome finally break out, it’s worth noting Chicago shot 12.9 percent with him on the ice at five-on-five. That number is going to drop significantly next season, which is going to lead to a lot of questions about Strome (when realistically, we probably shouldn’t expect him to keep scoring at a near point-per-game rate).

Tulloch: The NHL's top 10 regression candidates for 2019-20

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Point prediction?
Start from 1.00 ppg and go from there. (full 82 game season).

 

[x Tame Impala]

I hate that stupid shooting % expectancy argument. Why is it projected to drop? There are plenty of variables in play here.

Extrapolating shooting trends is a very lazy intellectual argument

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

I'm thinking around 70 pts from Strome this season.

I know that's a lot to expect though.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

I hate that stupid shooting % expectancy argument. Why is it projected to drop? There are plenty of variables in play here.

Extrapolating shooting trends is a very lazy intellectual argument

Really? I find it to be somewhat telling. Well at least in terms of identifying outliers and setting reasonable expectations.

As you say, it's only 1 variable. But expecting a regression in shooting % doesn't mean that he (anyone) can't improve in other areas. I find it similar to BABIP in baseball in it's use.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Really? I find it to be somewhat telling. Well at least in terms of identifying outliers and setting reasonable expectations.

As you say, it's only 1 variable. But expecting a regression in shooting % doesn't mean that he (anyone) can't improve in other areas. I find it similar to BABIP in baseball in it's use.

He’s still a very young player and we don’t know quite what we have in him yet. The Front Office doesn’t either which is probably why he hasn’t had a contract yet.

He is a 3rd overall pick that was developed very poorly in Arizona and is now finally in a position to succeed. He doesn’t have a “mean” to regress to because he hasn’t been in this sort of position for long enough a time to have a significant sample size yet.

The shooting % regression argument has legs if and only if you have enough sufficient data to compare it to. If you have 5 or so years of a player shooting at 11% and then they have a breakout year shooting 15% then I think a reasonable argument for regression can be made.

He had a 70 point pace while he was a Hawk last year and by all accounts he’s doing everything he can during offseason training to get even better. Keep in mind that with the current trend of RFA’s looking for huge deals now, this season could be a major contract year for Strome as well. If he kills it this season and puts up 70+ points he’s going to get paid. That could be major motivation for him.

I don’t think anyone has seen enough of Strome to definitively say one way or the other if he’s going to have a better or worse year than last season. But I also don’t think Strome has done much of anything to warrant people expecting a regression from him.

 

[AmericanDream]

Sophomore slump is legit- it tackles a number of top kids each and every season...but Cat rose above it and did not let that get in his way last season..Strome will be put in a great situation, and this is his 2nd full season so "sophomore" label still for me..but he should not be below 55-60 points based off of linemates and usage..

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Strome had 20 goals and 37 assists for 57 points in 78 games last season - that is a 0.73 ppg average. But if we break that down between games played with Arizona and games played with the Hawks, a more favorable picture emerges. He had 6 points in 20 games with Arizona - that's a 0.3 ppg average. He had 51 points in 58 games with the Hawks - that's a 0.88 ppg average. Extrapolating the 0.88 ppg he had with the Hawks out to 82 games - we get 72 points. Based on that and seasoned with a little conservative optimism - I will guess he gets 24 goals and 44 assists for 68 points.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

He’s still a very young player and we don’t know quite what we have in him yet. The Front Office doesn’t either which is probably why he hasn’t had a contract yet.

He is a 3rd overall pick that was developed very poorly in Arizona and is now finally in a position to succeed. He doesn’t have a “mean” to regress to because he hasn’t been in this sort of position for long enough a time to have a significant sample size yet.

The shooting % regression argument has legs if and only if you have enough sufficient data to compare it to. If you have 5 or so years of a player shooting at 11% and then they have a breakout year shooting 15% then I think a reasonable argument for regression can be made.

He had a 70 point pace while he was a Hawk last year and by all accounts he’s doing everything he can during offseason training to get even better. Keep in mind that with the current trend of RFA’s looking for huge deals now, this season could be a major contract year for Strome as well. If he kills it this season and puts up 70+ points he’s going to get paid. That could be major motivation for him.

I don’t think anyone has seen enough of Strome to definitively say one way or the other if he’s going to have a better or worse year than last season. But I also don’t think Strome has done much of anything to warrant people expecting a regression from him.

I agree with almost all of this. Strome hasn't played a lot and we don't truly know what to expect, even with regards to his shooting % average. His career shooting % could be above what it was last year for all we know.

However, the blurb was referencing on ice sh% (whole team while he's on the ice) being 12.9%. That's just has not been sustainable for anyone over a long period of time. I don't know where to get all the career on ice sh% numbers for all players, so I'm just going to pick some notable players to give context (not cherry picking I promise). These are the career on ice sh% numbers per hockey reference...

Crosby 10.7
Kane 9.8
OV 10.2
McDavid 11.0
Toews 9.6

All that to say that Strome's numbers were better than you would otherwise expect last year . That in no way means he can't improve on his raw production, just that it's likely that the team around him isn't going to cash in at the same rate they did last year, which would obviously effect his point totals, all else being equal.

 

[LordKOTL]

A poorly conditioned Strome out of Arizona managed to put up about 60 points and yet some of you are predicting he does worse than this...

The counter to that is that Strome effectively broke out last season and now other teams have to take notice. I don't think he gets worse per se, but faces some stronger competition which can affect his chances.

Plus, I believe most player's points are dominated via assists--in fact while playing for Chicago Strome's Assist-to-Goal ratio is 2:1 (34A/17G). Thus, it's safe to say the bulk of his points are going to be determined by how well his linemates score goals. This could go pear-shaped on him. My goal prediction was about 25G--a reasonable number for him to hit. But, if JC does something stupid again and pairs up Sikura with him, that can negatively impact his assist numbers, and thus bring down the total points.

 

[clydesdale line]

@Kevin Musto

 

[Kevin Musto]

@Kevin Musto

Nooooo I missed it! I hope they upload it to their channel. That short clip was hilarious.

 

[DontToewzMeBro]

Strome
24-38-62

Cat
37-36- 73

Nylander
26-32- 58

Kane
38-61- 99

Toews
41-43-84

 

[RememberTheRoar]

It's almost as though production and development isn't always linear. I personally don't think Strome will produce less than last season (have him at 65), but it also wouldn't shock me. Not every 21 year old sees their production improve, even though we all generally assume it will.

For what it's worth, the athletic had Strome in the honorable mentions (outside the top 10, Shaw was #1) of the players they expect to regress article. Here's their case...



Tulloch: The NHL's top 10 regression candidates for 2019-20

Don’t tell Musto and Leafer that

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

I'm an Oilers' fan (cursed by birth), but I've always been a fan of the 'Hawks' organization due to their prospect development/ability to find players

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Strome
24-38-62

Cat
37-36- 73

Nylander
26-32- 58

Kane
38-61- 99

Toews
41-43-84

So.... Hawks 4 best players digress for some reason and Nylander becomes a good NHL player?
Bold prediction, lets see how it pans out...

 

[RememberTheRoar]

So.... Hawks 4 best players digress for some reason and Nylander becomes a good NHL player?
Bold prediction, lets see how it pans out...

All players only keep progressing until they hit one million points in a season, right?

 

[bwana63]

I'm an Oilers' fan (cursed by birth), but I've always been a fan of the 'Hawks' organization due to their prospect development/ability to find players

Welcome. At least you have the Gretzky glory days. But, yeah, you have our sympathy. That Manning trade was a howler, eh?

Hawks' scouting department is second to none and has the budget to match.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

So.... Hawks 4 best players digress for some reason and Nylander becomes a good NHL player?
Bold prediction, lets see how it pans out...

Why is it that your guy Temmu never had a better year than his rookie season?

You would have thought he'd be at 200 pts by the time he was 27 the way you seem to assume players develop.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Why is it that your guy Temmu never have a better year than his rookie season?

You would have thought he'd be at 200 pts by the time he was 27 the way you seem to assume players develop.

His comments this offseason not only show a general lack of hockey knowledge, but also of basic sports knowledge.