Player Discussion Dylan McIlrath Part VI

[Vinny DeAngelo]

Just going to leave this here

Dan Boyle only has 1 more 5v5 point than mcilrath...

 

[Calad]

Just going to leave this here

Dan Boyle only has 1 more 5v5 point than mcilrath...

that is an alarming stat

 

[TankLarkin]

Hard to imagine Hank can't see what's going on in front of him. If he hasn't already he's the guy who needs to take a stand for playing McI on a regular basis (with Yandle). That pairing makes the entire team better from the drop of the puck.

 

[JerseyRangers*]

I figured most of you wouldn't care for this post above of mine.

Part of the point of it though was that this might be something that AV and his coaching staff consider when deciding on which D they're going to scratch. I see all this speculation as to why or how stupid they are---I see all kinds of posters here dreaming up all kinds of ulterior motives. The reason behind it might be just as simple as AV and Arniel, Samuelsson and Williams think they're best chance to win night in and night out is to dress--McDonagh, Yandle, Staal, Klein, Girardi and Boyle because the Rangers record with every single one of them in the lineup is better.

If somehow that is true then they really are collectively on crack. You cannot possibly watch the d play and come to that conclusion unless the measure of excellence is turning over the puck in the d zone and/or letting opposition forwards shoot at the goalie while standing unattend in the crease.

If what you are speculating is somehow true then I hope to see the whole coaching staff fired sooner than later.

 

[JerseyRangers*]

This is the Rangers W-L-OTL record for each of our D.

McDonagh 27-17-5
Yandle 27-17-5
Staal 27-17-5
Klein 24-10-3 In the 12 games he's missed we are 3-7-2. We've scored 32 goals given up 45.
Girardi 25-13-5 In the 6 games he's missed we are 2-4-0. We've scored 15 goals given up 24.
Boyle 24-13-5 In the 7 games he's missed we are 3-4-0. We've scored 20 goals given up 21.
McIlrath 7-11-2

Our W-L-OTL when McIlrath is in the lineup contrasts sharply to our regular 6.

My argument isn't that McIlrath shouldn't be playing more. I think he should play more. I think he's played well when given the chance. And if it were me Boyle would be the odd man out. Just pointing out something that a lot of posters here probably didn't know and that at least a few of us suspected---that when McIlrath has been in the lineup the team hasn't done that well. It's not to say he's played badly but for whatever reason when he's played the team has more often than not played badly. A coaching staff has the job to put together a lineup that has the best chance of winning and they're going to look at more than just Corsi charts. I'm sure they are aware of this and it does factor into their decisions about who they scratch and who they don't.

Fine. Based on this Klein, Boyle and Girardi should get most of the minutes. Also, obviously Girardi drives the offense; when he's gone we've only scored 2 goals a game.

Thus Girardi and Boyle should get first line minutes and Girardi should be on the pp so we can score more goals. That works!

 

[BroadwayStorm]

This is the Rangers W-L-OTL record for each of our D.

McDonagh 27-17-5
Yandle 27-17-5
Staal 27-17-5
Klein 24-10-3 In the 12 games he's missed we are 3-7-2. We've scored 32 goals given up 45.
Girardi 25-13-5 In the 6 games he's missed we are 2-4-0. We've scored 15 goals given up 24.
Boyle 24-13-5 In the 7 games he's missed we are 3-4-0. We've scored 20 goals given up 21.
McIlrath 7-11-2

Our W-L-OTL when McIlrath is in the lineup contrasts sharply to our regular 6.

My argument isn't that McIlrath shouldn't be playing more. I think he should play more. I think he's played well when given the chance. And if it were me Boyle would be the odd man out. Just pointing out something that a lot of posters here probably didn't know and that at least a few of us suspected---that when McIlrath has been in the lineup the team hasn't done that well. It's not to say he's played badly but for whatever reason when he's played the team has more often than not played badly. A coaching staff has the job to put together a lineup that has the best chance of winning and they're going to look at more than just Corsi charts. I'm sure they are aware of this and it does factor into their decisions about who they scratch and who they don't.

Further proof of the old saying that there's lies, damn lies and statistics.

 

[haveandare]

This is the Rangers W-L-OTL record for each of our D.

McDonagh 27-17-5
Yandle 27-17-5
Staal 27-17-5
Klein 24-10-3 In the 12 games he's missed we are 3-7-2. We've scored 32 goals given up 45.
Girardi 25-13-5 In the 6 games he's missed we are 2-4-0. We've scored 15 goals given up 24.
Boyle 24-13-5 In the 7 games he's missed we are 3-4-0. We've scored 20 goals given up 21.
McIlrath 7-11-2

Our W-L-OTL when McIlrath is in the lineup contrasts sharply to our regular 6.

My argument isn't that McIlrath shouldn't be playing more. I think he should play more. I think he's played well when given the chance. And if it were me Boyle would be the odd man out. Just pointing out something that a lot of posters here probably didn't know and that at least a few of us suspected---that when McIlrath has been in the lineup the team hasn't done that well. It's not to say he's played badly but for whatever reason when he's played the team has more often than not played badly. A coaching staff has the job to put together a lineup that has the best chance of winning and they're going to look at more than just Corsi charts. I'm sure they are aware of this and it does factor into their decisions about who they scratch and who they don't.

If they're aware of all of this, I really, really hope that they're aware that correlation doesn't imply causation, a very very basic statistical principle.

They may not have won the games that McI played, but that doesn't mean it was because of McI. When correlation does not lead to causation, it's because a third variable, or a number of other variables, are being overlooked. In this case, I think it's pretty clear that's what this is about. If McI played the start when Hank was unbeatable and every shot went in, his record would be different. Instead, he played when Hank was struggling a bit and everyone but he and Yandle, including and especially McD, where playing awful hockey, and even worse defense.

 

[eco's bones]

Further proof of the old saying that there's lies, damn lies and statistics.

Really? What exactly are you disputing? That it's some kind of fiction that the Rangers aren't 7-11-2 when Dylan's been in the lineup? That when Klein and/or Girardi have been out that opponents score in the neighborhood of 4 goals per against us per game. Or maybe that those losses didn't happen when they were out of the lineup?

Wins--Losses--Overtime Losses are the most basic of all statistics in sports. You don't win championships by losing.

These are the games Klein missed.

1. 1-2 shootout loss vs. the Islanders.
2. 1-2 loss vs. Colorado.
3. 4-1 win over Ottawa.
4. 1-2 loss to Vancouver.
5. 5-7 loss to Edmonton.
6. 4-5 OT loss to Calgary.
7. 4-2 win over Edmonton.
8. 2-5 loss to Minnesota.
9. 2-5 loss to Winnipeg.
10. 3-7 loss to Washington.
11. 3-2 OT win over Anaheim.
12. 2-5 loss to Washington.

Dylan played in every one of those games.

5 out of 6 (1-5) of Girardi's missed games correlate with Klein's missed games.

1. 4-2 win over Edmonton. Skjei playing. McDonagh playing out of position.
2. 2-5 loss to Minnesota. Skjei playing. McDonagh playing out of position.
3. 2-5 loss to Winnipeg. Summers playing. McDonagh playing out of position.
4. 3-7 loss to Washington. Summers playing. McDonagh playing out of position.
5. 3-2 OT win over Anaheim. Summers playing. McDonagh playing out of position.
6. 1-3 loss to the Islanders.

When Boyle has been out of the lineup:

1. 1-4 loss to Winnipeg.
2. 5-2 win over Washington.
3. 1-2 lost to Colorado.
4. 4-3 win over Toronto.
5. 3-4 loss to Boston.
6. 0-3 loss to Philadelphia.
7. 6-3 win over Buffalo.

Another fun fact whenever all 6 of McDonagh, Yandle, Staal, Klein, Girardi and Boyle have been in the lineup the Rangers are 20-6-3. Again when Dylan has been in the lineup the Rangers are 7-11-2.

 

[TheTakedown]

This is the Rangers W-L-OTL record for each of our D.

McDonagh 27-17-5
Yandle 27-17-5
Staal 27-17-5
Klein 24-10-3 In the 12 games he's missed we are 3-7-2. We've scored 32 goals given up 45.
Girardi 25-13-5 In the 6 games he's missed we are 2-4-0. We've scored 15 goals given up 24.
Boyle 24-13-5 In the 7 games he's missed we are 3-4-0. We've scored 20 goals given up 21.
McIlrath 7-11-2

Our W-L-OTL when McIlrath is in the lineup contrasts sharply to our regular 6.

My argument isn't that McIlrath shouldn't be playing more. I think he should play more. I think he's played well when given the chance. And if it were me Boyle would be the odd man out. Just pointing out something that a lot of posters here probably didn't know and that at least a few of us suspected---that when McIlrath has been in the lineup the team hasn't done that well. It's not to say he's played badly but for whatever reason when he's played the team has more often than not played badly. A coaching staff has the job to put together a lineup that has the best chance of winning and they're going to look at more than just Corsi charts. I'm sure they are aware of this and it does factor into their decisions about who they scratch and who they don't.

McIlrath has TWENTY games to his name.

The other have 45+ to their name...

On top of that, the fact is there are other defensemen who can do everything Girardi does except better for the same cap hit. That's the annoying part. The defense has so much money in it that it kills the offense

 

[eco's bones]

If they're aware of all of this, I really, really hope that they're aware that correlation doesn't imply causation, a very very basic statistical principle.

They may not have won the games that McI played, but that doesn't mean it was because of McI. When correlation does not lead to causation, it's because a third variable, or a number of other variables, are being overlooked. In this case, I think it's pretty clear that's what this is about. If McI played the start when Hank was unbeatable and every shot went in, his record would be different. Instead, he played when Hank was struggling a bit and everyone but he and Yandle, including and especially McD, where playing awful hockey, and even worse defense.

I agree with that actually. I'm just offering some 'possible' logical reasoning why Dylan is not in the regular rotation even if it might seem (even to me) that he's performing better than some other of our other defenseman.

 

[Rangers in 7]

McIlrath has TWENTY games to his name.

The other have 45+ to their name...

On top of that, the fact is there are other defensemen who can do everything Girardi does except better for the same cap hit. That's the annoying part. The defense has so much money in it that it kills the offense

both excellent points....all together the defense makes 26,525,000. That is alot of cash for 3 guys who have declined. The scary part is we are barely paying yandle which would push us to over 30 mil on just the defense alone

 

[haveandare]

I agree with that actually. I'm just offering some 'possible' logical reasoning why Dylan is not in the regular rotation even if it might seem (even to me) that he's performing better than some other of our other defenseman.

Yeah I know what you mean. I can't decide if it's more worrying that they think McI is our fourth best RD or if they don't get correlation and causation. Neither reflects on them in a very positive way.

 

[TheTakedown]

I agree with that actually. I'm just offering some 'possible' logical reasoning why Dylan is not in the regular rotation even if it might seem (even to me) that he's performing better than some other of our other defenseman.

I get your point. It's absolutely valid.

What they should be comparing is per/60 stats, which will show Girardi being on the ice for a boatload of goals against.

 

[eco's bones]

Yeah I know what you mean. I can't decide if it's more worrying that they think McI is our fourth best RD or if they don't get correlation and causation. Neither reflects on them in a very positive way.

At least when a team isn't in rebuild mode a coaching staff's win-loss success ratio has a direct bearing on its job security--the Rangers just being who they are--NYC just being the city it is--the pressure to succeed multiplies. Just an opinion.

I'll say this--I don't think AV and his staff are oafs. I think they're playing the %'s.

 

[mrmel329]

This is the Rangers W-L-OTL record for each of our D.

McDonagh 27-17-5
Yandle 27-17-5
Staal 27-17-5
Klein 24-10-3 In the 12 games he's missed we are 3-7-2. We've scored 32 goals given up 45.
Girardi 25-13-5 In the 6 games he's missed we are 2-4-0. We've scored 15 goals given up 24.
Boyle 24-13-5 In the 7 games he's missed we are 3-4-0. We've scored 20 goals given up 21.
McIlrath 7-11-2

Our W-L-OTL when McIlrath is in the lineup contrasts sharply to our regular 6.

My argument isn't that McIlrath shouldn't be playing more. I think he should play more. I think he's played well when given the chance. And if it were me Boyle would be the odd man out. Just pointing out something that a lot of posters here probably didn't know and that at least a few of us suspected---that when McIlrath has been in the lineup the team hasn't done that well. It's not to say he's played badly but for whatever reason when he's played the team has more often than not played badly. A coaching staff has the job to put together a lineup that has the best chance of winning and they're going to look at more than just Corsi charts. I'm sure they are aware of this and it does factor into their decisions about who they scratch and who they don't.

Eco, do you think those numbers are skewed at all because girardi and klein were both out at the same time as opposed to dylan playing when only one of them was out of the lineup

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

The one thing I think Dylan usually does better than all our defenseman is clear the front of the net and/or tie up a player in front of our net. All season we have seen guys just left alone in front of our net. Usually Dylan will push them to the side or behind the net. I can not speak for Lundy but if I was a goalie I would appreciate Dylan doing that when he is on the ice.

lol thats literally the reason McIlrath was drafted so high in 2010. To clear the crease for Hank. 6 years later, its paying off

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Im willing to let Girardi find his game even if it means reduced minutes.

Boyle, on the other hand, is headed down the MSL road to pasture. He stopped helping the PP a while ago and should be the one to sit on a more regular basis

 

[BroadwayStorm]

The fact we won or lost when a certain player was playing does not show you how we won or lost or if we won or lost because of or in spite of this player. Or because this player had little to nothing to do with it. Why don't we go ahead and try using that logic with Tanner Glass in the lineup the last 2 years and see how that goes? You could always argue we would have done better without him just like I know for a fact we would do much better without Staal and Girardi in the lineup. I think a more accurate depiction should be to judge the players +/- in those same stats. Although even then not really because even a guy like McDonagh gets hurt by dragging the corpse of Girardi and its not his fault. And now whoever is dragging it is having their +/- affected too. Not to mention when guys like Kreider, Nash and Hayes stink up the joint on what seems now like a nightly basis.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

This is the Rangers W-L-OTL record for each of our D.

McDonagh 27-17-5
Yandle 27-17-5
Staal 27-17-5
Klein 24-10-3 In the 12 games he's missed we are 3-7-2. We've scored 32 goals given up 45.
Girardi 25-13-5 In the 6 games he's missed we are 2-4-0. We've scored 15 goals given up 24.
Boyle 24-13-5 In the 7 games he's missed we are 3-4-0. We've scored 20 goals given up 21.
McIlrath 7-11-2

Our W-L-OTL when McIlrath is in the lineup contrasts sharply to our regular 6.

My argument isn't that McIlrath shouldn't be playing more. I think he should play more. I think he's played well when given the chance. And if it were me Boyle would be the odd man out. Just pointing out something that a lot of posters here probably didn't know and that at least a few of us suspected---that when McIlrath has been in the lineup the team hasn't done that well. It's not to say he's played badly but for whatever reason when he's played the team has more often than not played badly. A coaching staff has the job to put together a lineup that has the best chance of winning and they're going to look at more than just Corsi charts. I'm sure they are aware of this and it does factor into their decisions about who they scratch and who they don't.

If our coaching staff thinks that that stat has any meaning then they're dumb as rocks. He's one player. He's just getting unlikely, it's completely random.

 

[failure]

Really? What exactly are you disputing? That it's some kind of fiction that the Rangers aren't 7-11-2 when Dylan's been in the lineup? That when Klein and/or Girardi have been out that opponents score in the neighborhood of 4 goals per against us per game. Or maybe that those losses didn't happen when they were out of the lineup?

We were also missing Stepan during some of those games that Klein was out. 11/27-12-18. Could contribute to some losses as well.

 

[eco's bones]

We were also missing Stepan during some of those games that Klein was out. 11/27-12-18. Could contribute to some losses as well.

There are a lot of ifs. Really the line I'm following was just an idea of mine. It struck me that a lot of games Dylan played in we've lost so I went back and checked---and it annoyed a number of posters here. C'est la vie. And to be honest I've never been that jazzed with Dan Boyle since we've signed him. If it were me Dylan might not have played every game for us this year but he'd be in the neighborhood of 35 by now anyway.

Coaches are dictators. They don't have to explain why. Don't have to explain anything. See Tortorella. As coaches go AV strikes me more on the side of a benevolent one--though again he doesn't ever really give reasons for this or for that. He'll laugh some **** off. Sometimes very seriously say something that doesn't amount to anything. Not very likely he's going to come out and say 'our win-loss record with Dylan in the lineup kind of sucks. That's why he's not playing much'. The obvious inference that someone like Larry Brooks would take from that anyway would be 'he's throwing Dylan under the bus'. Don't feed the troll.

Anyway I like McIlrath--a lot. I was ecstatic that he made the team. I did not want him under any circumstances to go through the waiver process. I was convinced we'd lose him if that happened. I think he gives the Rangers elements that they badly need. They need more push back. They need someone who can really control the front of the net. The progress he's made from the Sept. 2014 training camp to the Sept. 2015 training camp to now has been almost extraordinary. He's taken major steps forward in that time. His skating--particularly his balance--his defensive play--his reads--his handling and passing of the puck--even his shot have all improved dramatically. I was worried about him back in Sept. 2014. He was falling all the time--chasing the puck and chasing hits all over the ice. He was nervous with the puck and flubbing at least half his passes. He was not a confident player. He is now.

And I don't have a problem with our guys dropping the gloves either. Some people do. I'm not one of them.

 

[Off Sides]

Rangers are 22 and 11 with Jarret Stoll playing.

8 and 8 without him.


Not exact number but point being the Rangers won games at the start of the year, some players played some did not.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Just going to leave this here

Dan Boyle only has 1 more 5v5 point than mcilrath...

I wonder if Larry Brooks read your post because he put that in his article today.

 

[silverfish]

I wonder if Larry Brooks read your post because he put that in his article today.

Brooksie is 100% ghosting on HFNYR these days and taking ideas from posters.

It can't be more obvious.

 

[offdacrossbar]

lol thats literally the reason McIlrath was drafted so high in 2010. To clear the crease for Hank. 6 years later, its paying off

and to think we coulda had a guy who has scored 101 goals in 242 total nhl games so far in his 3 1/2 yr career. bum.

who sits 4th in the league in goal scoring and 10th in total points right now today. won't come over.

*the amazing rick nash is currently 90th in goals scored and 63rd in points. assists and stuff

i would think that the crease clearer with his 23 total career games trumps that russian schlub any day.

all hail gordie clark

#lazyrussian