Dylan Larkin's Contract

[Steve Yzerlland]

That would be a good deal, I think.

Only if we are paying solely based on potential. He hasn’t done enough in the NHL to warrant this type of contract IMO but he has all the leverage at the tables when you look at how much Holland GIVES away with AAV, term and NMC...

 

[PelagicJoe]

Considering McDavid got 8 years $12.5M...

EDM did that so he wouldn't jump ship the first chance he got. Sure the Wings are bad right now, but Edmonton has been a laughing stock since the 90s with maybe three good seasons sprinkled in here and there.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Who knows. It might be Zadina!

Hopefully, but I'll wait until he plays a game with us before I make that call.

I have yet to hear you say why Larkin is worth Hall, McKinnon , Paranin money? I’ll wait....

Mackinnon was signed 2 years ago (Inflate his cap hit to $6.8M) and had a career high 63 points. Remind me of Larkin's career high again?

Hall's contract inflates to $7.4M. I appreciate you trying to compare contracts entering their 6th year, though.

Panarin, since you apparently don't understand how contracts work, got a bridge deal because he was an undrafted talent who had played one year in the NHL and did great that year. You don't give a guy like him $8M+ with term (Which he'll get now) after one year, because you don't know if he's legit or if he's just another Damien Brunner...

And $6M is a pretty good amount of money for a bridge deal.

Any other bad comparisons you'd like to make? I noticed you didn't bring up Draisaitl. Or Pastranak, who inflates to $7M. Or Ehlers. Or Horvat.

 

[SCD]

With Zetterberg soon to be retired, the Wings are at a transition point. Everything I have read suggests the organization has the confidence in Larkin that will make him the next captain. There is added value to the captaincy, because there is added expectations on and off the ice.

I would have no issue with him getting paid 6.0 for six years. His stats to this point may not fully support that, but they are developing a different relationship with him then other players. I am not sure he will ever be a great 1c, but I do think he can lead this team.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Hopefully, but I'll wait until he plays a game with us before I make that call.



Mackinnon was signed 2 years ago (Inflate his cap hit to $6.8M) and had a career high 63 points. Remind me of Larkin's career high again?

Hall's contract inflates to $7.4M. I appreciate you trying to compare contracts entering their 6th year, though.

Panarin, since you apparently don't understand how contracts work, got a bridge deal because he was an undrafted talent who had played one year in the NHL and did great that year. You don't give a guy like him $8M+ with term (Which he'll get now) after one year, because you don't know if he's legit or if he's just another Damien Brunner...

Any other bad comparisons you'd like to make?

Www.capfriendly.com none of those contracts are over 6.5M and all of them produced far more than Larkin BEFORE their deals. And you are just proving my point paying 21 year old Larkin the SAME as contracts entering their 6th year in the NHL with proven track records. Bottom line is if Larkin gets this huge contract it’s totally based on pure potential and not production at all. And being our “hometown” hero is another sweeter to sell tickets...

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Www.capfriendly.com none of those contracts are over 6.5M and all of them produced far more than Larkin BEFORE their deals. And you are just proving my point paying 21 year old Larkin the SAME as contracts entering their 6th year in the NHL with proven track records. Bottom line is if Larkin gets this huge contract it’s totally based on pure potential and not production at all. And being our “hometown” hero is another sweeter to sell tickets...

You don't quite understand what cap inflation means, do ya?

Or do you think Detroit should base Larkin's payday on Zetterberg's cap hit on a contract he signed in 2009? <mod>

 

[Frk It]

Per Genghis Khan, Detroit wants 5 years, Larkin will likely get 6, and it'll probably be in the $6M range.

Doesn’t 6 years take him right to UFA at 27/28? Seems weird the Wings are going along with that, that is worst case scenario in my opinion.

Not sure why they don’t have the grounds to push for a deal like Scheifele and Ehlers, I thought that was the ideal outcome all along.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

With Zetterberg soon to be retired, the Wings are at a transition point. Everything I have read suggests the organization has the confidence in Larkin that will make him the next captain. There is added value to the captaincy, because there is added expectations on and off the ice.

I would have no issue with him getting paid 6.0 for six years. His stats to this point may not fully support that, but they are developing a different relationship with him then other players. I am not sure he will ever be a great 1c, but I do think he can lead this team.

That’s all I’m saying. And captain potential is a totally subjective stat. I like Larkin but to automatically want him to be the captain and sign a long term deal based on his production is jumping the gun. As on July 2018 he hasn’t done enough to earn twice as much as Mantha and AA with total job security

 

[WingsMJN2965]

By the way, pointing out that Taylor Hall is in the 6th year of his contract doesn't prove your point. It proves that your comparison is completely foolish because Hall's deal was signed under a $64M cap...

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Doesn’t 6 years take him right to UFA at 27/28? Seems weird the Wings are going along with that, that is worst case scenario in my opinion.

Not sure why they don’t have the grounds to push for a deal like Scheifele and Ehlers, I thought that was the ideal outcome all along.

Anything more than 3 years will take him to UFA. Which makes it kinda strange that they want five. Seems like the no-man's land. Either max him out or bridge him, but don't make him a 25 or 26 year old UFA.

 

[SCD]

I like Larkin but to automatically want him to be the captain and sign a long term deal based on his production is jumping the gun.

Captaincy is based on a lot more then stats. He may never come close to the three previous captains statistically. Is he a leader? Does he have growth potential as a center? The Wings seem to think so.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Only if we are paying solely based on potential. He hasn’t done enough in the NHL to warrant this type of contract IMO but he has all the leverage at the tables when you look at how much Holland GIVES away with AAV, term and NMC...

He just had a 60 point season on a terrible hockey team. He had a rookie season where he had a fantastic first half and a sophomore slump that he proved by his year this year was just that. A sophomore slump that won't carry over.

Larkin gets a contract worth slightly less than Schiefele or Ehlers if it's 7/8 years. He gets 6M on the nose if it's 6 years and probably 5.5-5.75 if it's five years.

It's paying for potential that seems super likely to occur. Anything above 6.5 is too much and isn't justified by potential or production. Anything below 5.5 on a 5 year deal and it's too little and you're low-balling Larkin.

 

[Frk It]

Either max him out or bridge him, but don't make him a 25 or 26 year old UFA.

Right, seemed very cut and dry to me. Not sure why the hell we are doing something in the middle?

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Right, seemed very cut and dry to me. Not sure why the hell we are doing something in the middle?

Right. Us wanting 5 doesn't make sense, so glad he wants six.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Captaincy is based on a lot more then stats. He may never come close to the three previous captains statistically. Is he a leader? Does he have growth potential as a center? The Wings seem to think so.

Yes i think he might be one day but it seems like they are trying to align his career path like Steve Yzermans with the young captain role without merit IMO. Look at Toronto they have Matthews and still have a captain vacancy (although Tavares might be their captain soon now) point being you have to EARN that role and based on his play I haven’t seen him deserving all of this untouchable status he seems to have.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Don't bother, lol. You try to have a logical discussion and in return you get comparisons to contracts signed in 2013.

 

[Ezekial]

Only if we are paying solely based on potential. He hasn’t done enough in the NHL to warrant this type of contract IMO but he has all the leverage at the tables when you look at how much Holland GIVES away with AAV, term and NMC...

Holland historically doesn't give away too much term, AAV, or NMCs to no leverage RFAs. They're really high on Larkin so they're willing to eat UFA years.

Www.capfriendly.com none of those contracts are over 6.5M and all of them produced far more than Larkin BEFORE their deals. And you are just proving my point paying 21 year old Larkin the SAME as contracts entering their 6th year in the NHL with proven track records. Bottom line is if Larkin gets this huge contract it’s totally based on pure potential and not production at all. And being our “hometown” hero is another sweeter to sell tickets...

He was talking about their deals in regards to cap%, hence the word inflation. The cap has gone up.

 

[Frk It]

Holland historically doesn't give away too much term, AAV, or NMCs to no leverage RFAs. They're really high on Larkin so they're willing to eat UFA years.

Larkin is 21... so I don't think a 5 or 6 year deal is buying any UFA years?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Holland historically doesn't give away too much term, AAV, or NMCs to no leverage RFAs. They're really high on Larkin so they're willing to eat UFA years.





He was talking about their deals in regards to cap%, hence the word inflation. The cap has gone up.

I get the cap has gone up but like I said If Larkin wasn’t on Detroit would he be considered another franchises captain and warrant a cap hit comparable to superstar players? I seriously doubt this based on what he has shown thus far...

 

[Ezekial]

Larkin is 21... so I don't think a 5 or 6 year deal is buying any UFA years?

4 years of RFA left, 7 years in the league.

I get the cap has gone up but like I said If Larkin wasn’t on Detroit would he be considered another franchises captain and warrant a cap hit comparable to superstar players?

He shouldn't be entitled to money because of that. He should be payed for the player he is, not pay your maybe captain more because he's probably going to wear a letter. If he's not a super star don't pay him like one, at least Toews was the captain of 3 cup winning teams before he got overpaid as a super star.

 

[SCD]

Larkin is 21... so I don't think a 5 or 6 year deal is buying any UFA years?

6 buys 2

 

[obey86]

Anything more than 3 years will take him to UFA. Which makes it kinda strange that they want five. Seems like the no-man's land. Either max him out or bridge him, but don't make him a 25 or 26 year old UFA.

Why not? That’s the ideal situation in my mind. A 5 year deal makes him 26 at the end of the deal. If hes performed above expectations and deserves a significant raise at that point it’s the PERFECT age to sign him to a max length 8 year extension, which would take him to age 33. I don’t want a 28 or 29 year old UFA, because you’ll STILL have to resign him to a long contract that point BUT that contract will go until age 35 or 36, greatly increasing the likelihood the last 4 years or so if the deal are too expensive for a guy not in his prime anymore.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Why not? That’s the ideal situation in my mind. A 5 year deal makes him 26 at the end of the deal. If hes performed above expectations and deserves a significant raise at that point it’s the PERFECT age to sign him to a max length 8 year extension, which would take him to age 33. I don’t want a 28 or 29 year old UFA, because you’ll STILL have to resign him to a long contract that point BUT that contract will go until age 35 or 36, greatly increasing the likelihood the last 4 years or so if the deal are too expensive for a guy not in his prime anymore.

New CBA by that point. Who knows if 8 years will even be available.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

4 years of RFA left, 7 years in the league.


He shouldn't be entitled to money because of that. He should be payed for the player he is, not pay your maybe captain more because he's probably going to wear a letter. If he's not a super star don't pay him like one, at least Toews was the captain of 3 cup winning teams before he got overpaid as a super star.

My point exactly I like Larkin a lot as a player and want him to be the player we all hope but offering him north of 6M based on what I’ve seen is absolutely insane. But Holland seizes to surprise me so I fully expect him to be overpaid based on “intangibles” and “potential”. His contract could end up killing us later on down the line if the likes of AA, Mantha, Zadina produce a lot more points in the next few years...

 

[WingsMJN2965]

My point exactly I like Larkin a lot as a player and want him to be the player we all hope but offering him north of 6M based on what I’ve seen is absolutely insane. But Holland seizes to surprise me so I fully expect him to be overpaid based on “intangibles” and “potential”. His contract could end up killing us later on down the line if the likes of AA, Mantha, Zadina produce a lot more points in the next few years...

It's mildly amusing that you continue to downplay what he's accomplished while talking up Athanasiou...

And while I respect @Ezekial's opinion, he's not exactly right about Toews. He was signed to a 5 year $6.3M deal in December '09, when the cap was $56.8M and he had zero Cups.

Of course, Toews had better point totals than Larkin when that contract was signed... The cap was also $56.8M. Inflate that $6.3M contract to today's cap and you're talking $8.75M.