Dylan Larkin's Contract

[Redder Winger]

https://theathletic.com/136362/2017...contract-and-what-that-means-to-dylan-larkin/

Whatever the Red Wings want to call this retool/rebuild that is taking shape in Hockeytown, I think it is going to need an accompanying adjustment in the way they have historically looked at the contract life cycle. From my perspective, the Red Wings’ front office seems to have used a heavy collective bargaining hammer on their restricted free agents and tended to pay premiums on buying free agency years in an effort to keep their historic competitive playoff run afloat. I don’t believe that model works as well in today’s salary cap landscape.

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[WingedWheel1987]

The problem is that the Wings have no cap space to alter their cap philosophy and give Larkin a 6-7 year deal where you over pay for the first couple years and then get positive value for the remainder of the contract.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Can't read the article, but I would go long term with Larkin. He has been fantastic to start the season. If he can put up 60 points this year while playing 20 minutes a night at center in all situations with >50% in the dot, he will have really proven himself. I wouldn't hesitate to give him 8 years 6 million a year. I think Bo Horvat will be a good comparable to Larkin who got 6 years 5.5 million.

 

[golffuul]

Remember that $900k comes off, next year, because of the reduction in Weiss's cap hit (according to Cap Friendly), and don't forget that Mike Green will probably not be returning. So that is another $6M. Plus Larkin's $920k in cap hit. That gives us around $7.82 in cap hit to sign Mantha and Larkin. And we haven't even gotten to whether Mrazek will be around with his $4M hit and $863K from Mantha's expiring contract, plus any increase in the Cap going into next year. So we'll have around $13-15M to re-sign Mantha/Larkin, plus get a "cheap" backup and still have money to sign a decent defenceman. And this all presumes that Kronwall isn't LTIR/Retired, so we could still get money from that.

 

[Winger98]

The problem is that the Wings have no cap space to alter their cap philosophy and give Larkin a 6-7 year deal where you over pay for the first couple years and then get positive value for the remainder of the contract.

We can fit Larkin and Mantha (and Mrazek with a tiny raise) but it essentially forces us to buy out Ericsson. If Holland could find a way to peddle off someone like Helm or Gator or Dekeyser, it'd be quite a bit easier, but I can't imagine being able to move any of those guys easily.

 

[Tatar Shots]

We can fit Larkin and Mantha (and Mrazek with a tiny raise) but it essentially forces us to buy out Ericsson. If Holland could find a way to peddle off someone like Helm or Gator or Dekeyser, it'd be quite a bit easier, but I can't imagine being able to move any of those guys easily.

I think the far more likely scenario is Mrazek walks and Coreau backs up Howard for less than a million. This gives plenty of room to sign Larkin, Mantha, and AA if they want to longer deals.

There is just no way you qualify Mrazek and I'm sure he will look for a fresh start elsewhere.

 

[golffuul]

I think the far more likely scenario is Mrazek walks and Coreau backs up Howard for less than a million. This gives plenty of room to sign Larkin, Mantha, and AA if they want to longer deals.

There is just no way you qualify Mrazek and I'm sure he will look for a fresh start elsewhere.

I agree with this. Unless Mrazek somehow overtakes Howard by the Trade Deadline, I can't imagine that Mrazek will be a Red Wing, next year.

 

[sully6one]

Larkin will more than likely get a 6-8 year deal and I think it'll be just south of $6m.

 

[Syckle78]

Remember that $900k comes off, next year, because of the reduction in Weiss's cap hit (according to Cap Friendly), and don't forget that Mike Green will probably not be returning. So that is another $6M. Plus Larkin's $920k in cap hit. That gives us around $7.82 in cap hit to sign Mantha and Larkin. And we haven't even gotten to whether Mrazek will be around with his $4M hit and $863K from Mantha's expiring contract, plus any increase in the Cap going into next year. So we'll have around $13-15M to re-sign Mantha/Larkin, plus get a "cheap" backup and still have money to sign a decent defenceman. And this all presumes that Kronwall isn't LTIR/Retired, so we could still get money from that.

You're not accounting for anything coming in. If green is gone and kronner is also which many think is possible that's two top 4 defense spots need to be filled. I highly doubt they're going to full fill it with two elc players. If Mrazek is gone they'll also have to sign a backup goalie that'll be between 1-2m probably.

 

[Redder Winger]

Right now it's crazy to talk about Larkin as a $6M a year guy.
Insane.

Let's see where we are in March.

 

[Redder Winger]

I agree with this. Unless Mrazek somehow overtakes Howard by the Trade Deadline, I can't imagine that Mrazek will be a Red Wing, next year.

Mrazek overtaking Howard by the deadline would not surprise me.

But I still don't know if the Wings can afford to sign him.

That's how f***ed this salary structure is.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Right now it's crazy to talk about Larkin as a $6M a year guy.
Insane.

Let's see where we are in March.

Not really. 50 point players get 5-6 million in this league. Larkin is pretty likely to hit that number.

 

[Winger98]

I think the far more likely scenario is Mrazek walks and Coreau backs up Howard for less than a million. This gives plenty of room to sign Larkin, Mantha, and AA if they want to longer deals.

There is just no way you qualify Mrazek and I'm sure he will look for a fresh start elsewhere.

It depends how the season shakes out in net. If Howard is has a mediocre year and Mrazek returns to expected form, how do you justify just letting Mrazek walk? Or if Howard breaks down again and Mrazek has to shoulder the starter work load and doesn't suck?

We move on from Mrazek if he's awful again or if someone gives us something Holland would consider a fair value in a trade. Hopes of just walking from Mrazek seem a lot like all of the hopes that we wouldn't keep chucking contracts at Cleary like candy from a Pez dispenser. Holland will roll the dice on training camp sorting out the salaries a bit, and sign guys as cheaply as possible because they are RFAs and he can swing the hammer on them to force the contracts to work. It's what he does. Even if he does retire, whoever takes his place won't have much of a choice because it will be essentially impossible to move the contracts we want to move to allow a different team salary structure to be put into place.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

We can fit Larkin and Mantha (and Mrazek with a tiny raise) but it essentially forces us to buy out Ericsson. If Holland could find a way to peddle off someone like Helm or Gator or Dekeyser, it'd be quite a bit easier, but I can't imagine being able to move any of those guys easily.

Yeah it would require Holland to give up assets to get other teams to take on those contracts, so that's why i don't see that happening. Not to mention Holland's insane loyalty program.

 

[Goalie guy]

Getting rid of Mrazek is not the answer to over pay Larkin at all!!!!

 

[ShelbyZ]

I think unless Mrazek has some can't miss Vezina worthy finish to this season, he's a likely goner. I doubt they're going to be thrilled to negotiate with him again, and look what happened last time he got a raise... They'd probably end up at arbitration where he might get a one year and then walk as a UFA in 2019.

Goaltending isn't going to make or break this team so Holland probably gives Coreau a $750k one way for 18-19 to backup Howard and then addresses the position after that season. If not, it isn't like Holland hasn't had success dipping into the UFA bargain bin for short term goaltending (Osgood 2.0, Hasek 3.0, Conklin 1.0, MacDonald 2.0, etc.)

I mean we all know damn well they aren't going to trade or buyout (or give up assets to trade) Helm, Abdelkader, Howard, Ericsson, etc. so not qualifying Mrazek is an easy avenue for them to open cap space.

 

[Redder Winger]

Not really. 50 point players get 5-6 million in this league. Larkin is pretty likely to hit that number.

Yeah. I'm going to wait to see if he gets there.
He hasn't done it yet.
Last year he got 32 points - 3 whole more than Athanasiou - who wasn't worth 2x$2.2M to most of this board.

I'm fine with 4x$4M
Or $3x$3.5M or something right now.

If we get to March and Larkin looks like a dynamic player on his way to 50+ points, great.

But so far, Larkin has spent more of his career being mediocre than good.

 

[njx9]

Yeah, I'm not really interested in breaking the bank on Larkin right now. Let's see if he still looks like an actual NHL C in the second half of the season, let alone like the 1.5C he really needs to be before getting crazy with $6m long term.

 

[Reddwit]

I wouldn't worry about creating space for his contract. Howard and Nyquist are tradeable, even if some retention is required, we can walk from Mrazek if need be, Weiss' cap hit drops by $900k, we have no reason to explore big name UFAs, Green will be traded, the cap could go up, and Kronwall is potentially LTIRetired.

I think the big piece that people are overlooking is Nyquist though. He's arguably slipping from the core of the team. He isn't really that revered anymore. With 1.5 years left on his deal, I think he's approached about waiving his NTC. I think if you retain $1M on the guy, he becomes very enticing to a number of teams - both those solidly in the playoff picture and those just outside of it who are looking for a non-rental boost.

 

[Henkka]

With 78 million cap (estimation raise) there's proably ~12million left for Athanasiou, Larkin and Mantha at next summer. Without any major moves, except Green traded. Sheahan trade already made 2M of space if he would have gotten an extension.

If Mrazek bolts away, there's 15 million (~1M goes to backup)

If also Kronwall gets LTIRetired, there's almost 20 million in cap space for these three guys. Or if Mrazek stays, there's that 15M.

I don't think we'll see any buyouts. Time will eat the bad contracts away.

 

[Shaman464]

Yeah. I'm going to wait to see if he gets there.
He hasn't done it yet.
Last year he got 32 points - 3 whole more than Athanasiou - who wasn't worth 2x$2.2M to most of this board.

I'm fine with 4x$4M
Or $3x$3.5M or something right now.

If we get to March and Larkin looks like a dynamic player on his way to 50+ points, great.

But so far, Larkin has spent more of his career being mediocre than good.

Because Larkin, just by virtue of his age, his position, and his trajectory gets more rope than AA. Larkin is 2 years younger, never played pro before, so getting use to the long seasons, and learning to make adjustments are normal.

 

[jkutswings]

I think the big piece that people are overlooking is Nyquist though. He's arguably slipping from the core of the team. He isn't really that revered anymore. With 1.5 years left on his deal, I think he's approached about waiving his NTC. I think if you retain $1M on the guy, he becomes very enticing to a number of teams - both those solidly in the playoff picture and those just outside of it who are looking for a non-rental boost.

But when were the words 'Nyquist' and 'revered' ever in the same sentence to begin with? He's always been a complimentary scoring winger, albeit one with a short window of overachievement.

 

[Henkka]

Imo, we could do Larkin with a bridge deal and be not facing a big risk him braking the bank.

If we ever want Larkin to be a great two-way centers, he will be used on defensive situations. Like PK and that wears him a bit down physically. He can't focus that much on scoring. Scoring will affect most on his contract. He will log big minutes has relatively small risk to break the bank. If he breaks the bank, instead of that heavy load, can't be any happier. Then he has become a diamond.

But Mantha. Bridge deal with him could be a lot more risky. Mantha has ability to peak high scoring on contract year, and then we would be in trouble. We should sign him long-term as fast as possible, as long as his career ppg is enough low.

I would do 8-year deal with Mantha for 5.5 million. That's pretty much same with nowadays cap as Franzen 3.9M in 2009 with 56M cap.

3 year bridge for Larkin with 4.0-4.5 million.

3-year deal also for Athanasiou for 3 million.

3 years are ideal, because in 2021 all Zetterberg, Helm and Glendening are coming out of the books. Tatar contract also ends. Also Weiss buyout will finally end. That's 19 million combined for new contracts.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Larkin's play this season has been extremely encouraging. He and Mantha have both stepped up as early season leaders. I especially like how many assists Larkin is getting. If he becomes a good puck distributor while maintaining his speed and shooting, he'll be a great center. Hopefully they keep improving.

 

[Henkka]

What comes to player ages, going long-term with Mantha is now.

Larkin is 22-year old at next summer. Do a 3-year then and after that bridge he is 25-year old. Then push for 8 years in his prime, until he is 32.

Mantha is 24-year old at next season start. Time to push for 8 years is now. Then we lock him to his prime years from 24 to 31.