Dylan Larkin's Contract

[Henkka]

We already have 5.3M in cap space, right? So if we NEED to trade to get more room, what are we looking at here? 5.5? 6?

Hopefully this means a max term contract at least.

All speculations are happening with 23-man roster. 22-man roster would open enough room if Larkin goes 6M.

And because we have so many prospects now at Griffins for fast callup, we could easily handle the season with 22-men.

It just needs waiving Frk/Witkowski, and we could call up anybody of the Hicketts/Cholowski/Hronek/Pope/Zadina/Svechnikov/Turgeon etc. -group when needed.

 

[Frk It]

So, what I completely disagree with in your position is that although you see him upticking his goals because of his really low shooting percentage last year, somehow (in your opinion) that would coincide with a reduction in assists.

Statistically speaking, that’s usually what happens. Some of your assists are “shot assists”, so if your shooting % goes up then you score more goals but because you scored there was no rebound or shot assist opportunity any longer. So you trade off that assist for a goal.

 

[marcmadsen]

Statistically speaking, that’s usually what happens. Some of your assists are “shot assists”, so if your shooting % goes up then you score more goals but because you scored there was no rebound or shot assist opportunity any longer. So you trade off that assist for a goal.

I don't have any statistics about how many of Larkin's assists were as a result of "shot assists" but I don't think those shot assists that would turn into goals would account for much of a reduction. But hey, fair enough.

However, on that same thought the more developed Larkin's wingers became (i.e. Mantha) they're shooting percentage or number of shots and resulting goals will increase. I don't think any of us believe Mantha has capped out at 24 goals/season. So that would mean that the more goals Mantha scores (assuming they continue to play together) the more assists Larkin would get as a result.

I also think that when a player is scoring more (higher shooting percentage) that naturally leads to that player taking more shots. Confidence and production lead to an increased approach.

 

[Frk It]

I don't have any statistics about how many of Larkin's assists were as a result of "shot assists" but I don't think those shot assists that would turn into goals would account for much of a reduction. But hey, fair enough.

However, on that same thought the more developed Larkin's wingers became (i.e. Mantha) they're shooting percentage or number of shots and resulting goals will increase. I don't think any of us believe Mantha has capped out at 24 goals/season. So that would mean that the more goals Mantha scores (assuming they continue to play together) the more assists Larkin would get as a result.

I also think that when a player is scoring more (higher shooting percentage) that naturally leads to that player taking more shots. Confidence and production lead to an increased approach.

Yeah, I was just speaking in general.

The good thing about Larkin is he is a consistently high shot producer, and he had a huge uptick in using his teammates more last year. If he keeps doing those things and gets more ice time as the vets wind down, he should be able to put up good numbers on a yearly basis.

 

[Henkka]

Traditional shooting% rarely has anything to do with shooting ability. It's more of the area-thing. Net front guys get easier tap-ins and butt-bounces to raise their percentage. Tomas Holmström for sure had the best shooting% for 1,5 decades because of that. But who would say that he was best shooter?

Snipers usually shoot wide, because they hunt for top corners. And what's funny, shooting wide doesn't lower shooting%, because it was not a shot on goal. Best goalscorers shoot also most wide, ain't it funny!

I learned this years ago, when we talked about Mikael Samuelsson "always shooting wide or over", and when I checked the stats, Dats and Zeta were shooting most wide from our team, relatively. That was damn hilarious find.

Fenwick shooting% tells more about shooting skill, but still, the range matters. Ovechkin would have a lot higher percentages, but he takes most of his (PP) shots so far away, that the percentage won't raise high. He is still probably best, or second best in it, after Patrik Laine.

 

[raymond23]

Larkin is more of a quantity over quality type without a doubt.

I don't expect it to be the norm but if he ever gets a season with a high shooting% he should have some pretty huge numbers. Looking forward to it.

 

[Ezekial]

I guess I'll copy my athletic comment into here:

Larkin RFA breakdown at ~7.5 per year

18-19 - 5.5 million
19-20 - 6 million
20-21 - 6.5 million
21-22 - 7 million
22-23 - 7.5 million
23-24 - 9 million
24-25 - 9 million
25-26 - 9 million

AAV: 7.4375 million

He's not making that much money on an 8 year deal. 3-4 years ~5 AAV, 5-6 years ~5.5-5.75 AAV, 6-8 years ~6-6.25 million AAV

 

[Henkka]

Where does this +7M come from ?

 

[Ezekial]

Where does this +7M come from ?

Well that one guy from the article linked on last page said a similar number, and that comment was a direct response to a guy saying to sign him to 8x7.5 and had an explanation why it would be fair, and someone responded to him saying that deal could be a steal at the end of it.
Mind boggling to me

 

[Henkka]

Well that one guy from the article linked on last page said a similar number, and that comment was a direct response to a guy saying to sign him to 8x7.5 and had an explanation why it would be fair, and someone responded to him saying that deal could be a steal at the end of it.
Mind boggling to me

I already looked for some puck possession stats only (Zone entries + Zone exits), not for point-scoring and yeah, Larkin is clearly best Red Wings player. But worse than Ehlers. He is also worse producer than Ehlers was.

Very tough for me to see him get more than Ehlers. Just unrealistic.

 

[marcmadsen]

The only argument I could see someone marking for why Larkin could get more than Ehlers is because of position. But even still, it's tough to imagine a contract over $6M/yr

 

[ricky0034]

The only argument I could see someone marking for why Larkin could get more than Ehlers is because of position. But even still, it's tough to imagine a contract over $6M/yr

there's plenty of reasons beyond that for Larkin getting more than Ehlers

for one thing he has an extra year of games played in the NHL than Ehlers did when he signed his contract

I would argue that Larkin had clearly better production than Ehlers in the season leading up to signing his contract too,1 less point but Larkin had an abnormally low shooting percentage this year which Ehlers did not and Larkin led his team in scoring by 7th points while Ehlers was 4th and 18 points behind 1st

 

[FunkyColdZadina]

How does Elias Lindholm look as a Larkin comparable? A few years older and a career high of 45 points vs Larkin's 62 this past year.

 

[Henkka]

there's plenty of reasons beyond that for Larkin getting more than Ehlers

for one thing he has an extra year of games played in the NHL than Ehlers did when he signed his contract.

Yeah, but Ehlers contract will start from 2018-19 season, he just put the name on it year before. What really matter is:

A) The year the contract will start.
B) The production/impact before that.
C) Term.
D) The cap against is was signed, percentage value of cap.

So we can compare the full 3-year data from both. Last year Ehlers was on ELC like Larkin. If Larkin takes 7-year deal, A,C and D are same as Ehlers, only B is different.

It really is THE comparable, especially if the term is same, 7 years. Same draft, same age, next contract after ELC, same kind of skating guys thriwing in zone-entries as their strength.

Position is nowadays different, but Larkin also played as winger some time.

 

[newfy]

there's plenty of reasons beyond that for Larkin getting more than Ehlers

for one thing he has an extra year of games played in the NHL than Ehlers did when he signed his contract

I would argue that Larkin had clearly better production than Ehlers in the season leading up to signing his contract too,1 less point but Larkin had an abnormally low shooting percentage this year which Ehlers did not and Larkin led his team in scoring by 7th points while Ehlers was 4th and 18 points behind 1st

EHlers didnt have an up and down start to his career like Larkin did though. Larkin has one solid rookie year, a bad year, and one really good year. I doubt shooting percentage is much of a bargaining chip, but leading the team in scoring will be I'm sure. I would expect their contracts to be pretty similar or Kenny did a bad job of bargaining.

I'm not saying theyll be the exact same, but I wouldnt expect Larkin to get much more than that. Kenny can easily say you had 30 something points last year, I cant give you 7+ money without knowing youre for sure going to produce

 

[Jesusberg40]

Custance just tweeted/article on the athletic where he talked to an eastern conference capologist. Basically the more money you have signed before you use LTIR means you save more cap room when you use LTIR. So the wings wont be LTIRing Mule until after Larkin get signed.

Custance basically said that its a fairly safe bet that someone like AA or Nyquist will be dealt before Larkin is signed to make up the caproom they need for his deal.

So expect trade soon is what I got out of it

We already have 5.3M in cap space, right? So if we NEED to trade to get more room, what are we looking at here? 5.5? 6?

Hopefully this means a max term contract at least.

So from my (albeit, limited) understanding of how LTIR works, the trick here would be in maximizing the relief they get when placing Mule on LTIR. This article's a few years old, but I'm assuming it still holds true.

Scenario B
On the last day of training camp, the Flyers have a cap payroll of $66,353,522 (excluding performance bonuses). Jay Rosehill, Bruno Gervais, and Adam Hall are placed on waivers, effectively removing $2.1 million from the books ($675,000 for Rosehill; $825,000 for Gervais; $600,000 for Hall).* The Flyers’ cap payroll would then be $64,253,522, slightly below the upper limit.
On the first day of the NHL season, the Flyers place Pronger on LTIR. Accounting for the LTIR exemption, the Flyers would then be afforded a maximum cap payroll of $69,194,951.
After that, the Flyers may recall Rosehill, Gervais, and Hall. This would bring their cap payroll back up to $66,353,522. They would then have a remaining LTIR exemption of $2,841,429.
In layman’s terms, by embarking upon this scenario the Flyers will effectively be able to exceed the salary cap by $2,841,429 under Chris Pronger’s LTIR exemption.

So I guess the issue would be getting back under the cap once they sign Larkin to get that new ceiling/cap payroll. Even if they sign him for something like $5m, it puts them over by $2.1m or so with only 22 players (including Mule) on the roster. I'm not sure who they waive to get as close to that $79.5m before placing Franzen on LTIR, so maybe a trade is going to be necessary, after all. I'm sure someone else here has a better grasp of LTIR than I do, and maybe Custance discusses this in his piece, but I don't have a subscription. Either way, seems a bit more complicated than just signing Larkin and LTIR'ing Franzen.

 

[Leadzedder]

I thought I read some where’s about not having to do this cap gymnastics due to Franzen being out the full year prior.

I think the question should be asked on the business board. I looked 5 pages into the board and didn’t see any LTIR threads.

It’s impirtant info, that would be good to be 100% on cause it makes a difference,and will help us understand the required moves before opening night.

Anyone up for it? I haven’t got the time now. It could later.

 

[odin1981]

I thought I read some where’s about not having to do this cap gymnastics due to Franzen being out the full year prior.

I think the question should be asked on the business board. I looked 5 pages into the board and didn’t see any LTIR threads.

It’s impirtant info, that would be good to be 100% on cause it makes a difference,and will help us understand the required moves before opening night.

Anyone up for it? I haven’t got the time now. It could later.

I made a thread for you about it so hopefully we can get a answer on it Leadzedder.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I thought I read some where’s about not having to do this cap gymnastics due to Franzen being out the full year prior.

I think the question should be asked on the business board. I looked 5 pages into the board and didn’t see any LTIR threads.

It’s impirtant info, that would be good to be 100% on cause it makes a difference,and will help us understand the required moves before opening night.

Anyone up for it? I haven’t got the time now. It could later.

we still have to do the cap gymnastics. that's why these 'dead' deals like hossa, clarkson and pronger keep getting traded. teams are allowed to go 10% over the cap during the offseason and we can put franzen on LTIR the day before season starts (didn't read jesusbergs link but i'd assume it's scenario A). however, that doesn't maximize the cap space as much (at least in most cases) as putting franzen on LTIR the day season starts. but on the other hand, it shouldn't matter for us since we probably aren't going to be adding lot of salary during the season. without doing the math, i think we can pull off scenario A without trading nyquist or AA etc.

 

[Leadzedder]

I made a thread for you about it so hopefully we can get a answer on it Leadzedder.

Thanks bud. I’ll go check it out.

 

[Jesusberg40]

we still have to do the cap gymnastics. that's why these 'dead' deals like hossa, clarkson and pronger keep getting traded. teams are allowed to go 10% over the cap during the offseason and we can put franzen on LTIR the day before season starts (didn't read jesusbergs link but i'd assume it's scenario A). however, that doesn't maximize the cap space as much (at least in most cases) as putting franzen on LTIR the day season starts. but on the other hand, it shouldn't matter for us since we probably aren't going to be adding lot of salary during the season. without doing the math, i think we can pull off scenario A without trading nyquist or AA etc.

Right. This is scenario A:

Scenario A
On the last day of training camp, the Flyers have a cap payroll of $66,353,522 (excluding performance bonuses). Chris Pronger is placed on LTIR. By doing so, the Flyers will be deemed to have already replaced him and will not be eligible for further relief. This is because the team’s cap payroll exceeded the upper limit. If Pronger stays on LTIR all season, the cap payroll of the Flyers may not exceed $66,353,522.
In layman’s terms, by embarking upon this scenario the Flyers will effectively only be able to exceed the salary cap by $2,053,522 under Chris Pronger’s LTIR exemption.

So, let's say the Wings decide to recall two of Zadina/Ramussen and Hronek/Hicketts). I'm assuming they can sign Larkin for anywhere from $$5,143,335 to 5,253,335 million and put Mule on LTIR the last day of the offseason. I'm guessing would still give them a new upper limit of roughly $83,445,545 (The current upper limit of 79.5 million, plus Mule's $3,945,545)? Honestly, I wish I understood the cap stuff a bit better. The Wings' brass obviously know what they're doing, but I'm curious for my own reasons. No one responded to that thread in the Business forum.

 

[Leadzedder]

That scenario A / B is good stuff. But what year is in from. The first year Probger was LTIR or years removed from playing? I don’t know.

I’ll see if I can give that business post a bump.

 

[Winger98]

So I guess the issue would be getting back under the cap once they sign Larkin to get that new ceiling/cap payroll. Even if they sign him for something like $5m, it puts them over by $2.1m or so with only 22 players (including Mule) on the roster. I'm not sure who they waive to get as close to that $79.5m before placing Franzen on LTIR, so maybe a trade is going to be necessary, after all. I'm sure someone else here has a better grasp of LTIR than I do, and maybe Custance discusses this in his piece, but I don't have a subscription. Either way, seems a bit more complicated than just signing Larkin and LTIR'ing Franzen.

I'm guessing Holland is going to try to sign Larkin for around $4.5m on a one or two year deal. At that point Frk and Witkowski can be sent down, start the year with a 20 man roster with around $300K of cap room. Once that's done, put Franzen on LTIR, then bring people back up. Where things get hairy is if we're trying to keep Rasmussen. At that point, we have to pay Larkin even less (around $3.6m) or send another guy down. At that point, I'd like to send Nielsen down but it looks like he has an NMC or some sort to go with his NTC. My next guesses would be Gator, Helm, Dekeyser, or Glendening. Guys who are either unlikely to be grabbed because of their contracts, or who wouldn't be a huge loss if he was taken.

And this is without going into what happens if someone gets legitimately hurt. I mean, could we have to place Helm on LTIR before the season starts, lose some cap space their because of how the cap rules are set up, and then put Franzen on LTIR to gain that room back in some round about way? I have no clue.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Right. This is scenario A:

So, let's say the Wings decide to recall two of Zadina/Ramussen and Hronek/Hicketts). I'm assuming they can sign Larkin for anywhere from $$5,143,335 to 5,253,335 million and put Mule on LTIR the last day of the offseason. I'm guessing would still give them a new upper limit of roughly $83,445,545 (The current upper limit of 79.5 million, plus Mule's $3,945,545)? Honestly, I wish I understood the cap stuff a bit better. The Wings' brass obviously know what they're doing, but I'm curious for my own reasons. No one responded to that thread in the Business forum.

it would depend how much cap space there would be left when mule is put on LTIR. or more like how much the wings are over the cap with mules deal.

if wings are at 81.5 (counting mule) when mule is put on LTIR (the last day of the offseason), wings would have salary cap of 81.5. if it were at 83 the last day of offseason the limit would be 83 etc.

on the flyers example, cap was at 64.3M. with pronger they were ~66.4 if they were to put him on LTIR in the offseason, so about 2M. but putting pronger on LTIR on the first day of the season (along with some other moves) they were able to 'get' almost all of the 5M or so from prongers deal. with the flyers, option B worked better. with us, it will likely be option A barring a winger trade. iirc, we used the option A that offseason, 2013. i think it was helm that went to LTIR.

so getting as close to as possible 83,445,545M cap is the way to go as of now, then franzen on LTIR the day before season starts to maximize the cap space.

That scenario A / B is good stuff. But what year is in from. The first year Probger was LTIR or years removed from playing? I don’t know.

I’ll see if I can give that business post a bump.

the same rule(s) still apply.

 

[Leadzedder]

So you’re saying there’s no difference between a player that is going on his first year of LTIR and a player going on LTIR for his 2nd/3rd season??

I’m only going on something I vaguely remember reading awhile back so I’m likely wrong.