Player Discussion Duncan Keith

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Musashi

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May 23, 2012
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Yes, I already have a Keith Blackhawks visitor jersey and a Keith 2014 Team Canada olympic jersey.

Yes, I will be completing the Holy Trinity of Keith with my first Oilers jersey since 2008.

No further questions at this time.
 

space321

Registered User
May 11, 2011
6,075
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Absolute best way this is a bad deal for a very good player.

Keith as others have pointed out is a legend that type of thing can’t be taught. Why have so many of our players failed so bad? No true Mentorship. It’s been eons since we had a true mentor for our d core

Does this mean you think our Dcore has underachieved?

A core anchored by Larsson/Nurse + a bunch of plugs/rookies like KRussell/Jones/Lagesson/Bear... that's just a problem of not being good enough, and not a problem with "mentorship"
 

WaitingForUser

Registered User
Mar 19, 2010
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Edmonton
Absolute best way this is a bad deal for a very good player.

Keith as others have pointed out is a legend that type of thing can’t be taught. Why have so many of our players failed so bad? No true Mentorship. It’s been eons since we had a true mentor for our d core
I have tried multiple times to add to this so I am done trying. This mobile site refresh is absurd when the hell are we gonna get an app????
 

WaitingForUser

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Mar 19, 2010
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Edmonton
Does this mean you think our Dcore has underachieved?

A core anchored by Larsson/Nurse + a bunch of plugs/rookies like KRussell/Jones/Lagesson/Bear... that's just a problem of not being good enough, and not a problem with "mentorship"
One begat’s the other my friend. Great prospects become great players by learning from great players. How high would Nuges ceiling have been if was taught by a guy like Getzlaf or Thorton instead of Horcoff. When Holland said he wants to build a consistent contender this is what he meant. The wings were so good for so long because the had great players teach good prospects how to win. How good would Schultz or Gilbert or Petry have been if the learned from a guy like Keith instead of a guy like Ference?
 

FanOfSadTeam

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Dec 12, 2010
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A visual of peak McJesus. I expect it to be a reality in 10 years.

tenor.gif
 

space321

Registered User
May 11, 2011
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One begat’s the other my friend. Great prospects become great players by learning from great players. How high would Nuges ceiling have been if was taught by a guy like Getzlaf or Thorton instead of Horcoff. When Holland said he wants to build a consistent contender this is what he meant. The wings were so good for so long because the had great players teach good prospects how to win. How good would Schultz or Gilbert or Petry have been if the learned from a guy like Keith instead of a guy like Ference?

Disagree with your assessment. I think you're looking for causal relations which aren't really there.

DRW were good for that long because that's how long they had good players for. Lidstrom basically anchored their defense for 20 years. In fact after Lidstrom retired, they went to shit. No amount of over the hill vets helped with anything.
 
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nturn06

Registered User
Nov 9, 2017
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Alright... how about:
Points per game of 0.4 (equivalent of 33 points on a full season)
A positive GF% differential (since actuals matter), and
Not getting caved at EV xGA (since chances against matter for D... but are heavily influenced by utilization/partner. Let's say he shaves his current stat of 3.27 to 2.75)

I simply do not understand this obsession with the xGA... Keith xGA next season will have 0% influence on standings, the only thing which matters is the GA.

Side note: last time I compared the teams GF/GA with the xGF/xGA, the difference was soo big that it made xGF/xGA statistically crap stats.
 
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MettleMcOiler

5-14-6-1
Mar 9, 2011
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Edmonton
Disagree with your assessment. I think you're looking for causal relations which aren't really there.

DRW were good for that long because that's how long they had good players for. Lidstrom basically anchored their defense for 20 years. In fact after Lidstrom retired, they went to shit. No amount of over the hill vets helped with anything.

Lidstrom was 42 when he retired. Doesn't that consider him an over the hill vet? Yet, the defence was still good until he retired. Sounds to me even at that age he was still an anchor and brought stability and presence and experience to the d-corp. Keith can definitely fill that role for the oilers. Keith turns 38 tomorrow and still looks like he can still play. I guess we will see how this experiment will turn out but if I was one of the oilers D right now, I would be over the moon to have someone like Keith be part of the team. I would be learning from him non-stop. Not every team has the luxury to learn from a player of his càliber.
 

WaitingForUser

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Mar 19, 2010
4,605
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Edmonton
Disagree with your assessment. I think you're looking for causal relations which aren't really there.

DRW were good for that long because that's how long they had good players for. Lidstrom basically anchored their defense for 20 years. In fact after Lidstrom retired, they went to shit. No amount of over the hill vets helped with anything.
You are seriously downplaying how much of an effect Yzerman Shanahan and Hull had on Datsyuk and Zetterberg my friend.
 

Niten Ichi Ryu

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Jul 1, 2018
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Can't wait for Duncan to silence all the critics. I'm so excited to see him in an Oilers uniform, and even more stoked Edmonton was first choice, maybe only choice. You certainly don't hear that often, or at all

Welcome DK, I can't believe you're about to be an Oiler and threading passes to McDavid whilst teaching masterclass on defense and all his secrets, little details that will upgrade every single dman on this team.

Holland knows what he's doing, and I like it
 

TheNumber4

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Nov 11, 2011
36,772
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Hope Keith is up to the challenge. He's got a lot of naysayers to disprove; pretty much the entirety of the analytics community, 80% of Oilers fans, and 100% of fans of other teams (cept Chicago, cause they love him over there).
 
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TheNumber4

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Nov 11, 2011
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Keith was more or less brought in to be an on-ice Defense coach.
Bear plays a similarly-style game to Keith, and I'm hoping he can be Bears mentor and eventual partner.

What we need Keith to teach Bear, is how to become better at making quick outlet decisions, and all the off-ice stuff.
(how to train, how to eat, how to be a pro, how to be more awesome).

Keith's value will be simply being a bridge between "generations" I guess we can say.
He won't be our best defenseman, but he's going to be relied on to be what Weber is to the Habs.

Excited to see what he can bring. Chicago management seems to think we're cup-bound with him.
Like.

And agreed. Heard today Bear came in ripped for year 1... but for year 2 not so much. And there was a lot of hype around his fitness in year 1. We knew he took a step back after Covid break, but somewhat encouraging if it was due to lack of proper training/diet. Keith will definitely help in this regard. Keith also a great outlet passer, Bear is as well but maybe Keith can help him pick his spots better. One other thing he can help with is how Keith is a small guy but due to his quickness in attacking forwards, still gets the job done defensively (at least in his prime)... should be able to teach Bear some tricks on how to defend while being small.
 

Gordian Knot

Registered User
Jul 3, 2016
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Now it is up to Duncan to show he can fill the big shoes like we all expect.

Welcome to Oilers!

giphy (4) (1).gif
 

OilersGo

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Jul 15, 2021
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mark my words ol Dunker will hoist the cup in copper and blue. ol man Holland got us a good one for a cheap prise
 

Zaddy

Registered User
Feb 8, 2013
13,058
5,850
This is a great post... so well articulated.

I know a lot of guys around here do not believe in "culture"... we had an entire schism on that topic last summer. And yet, here we are with another surprising first round bounce.

The real answer is probably Culture AND Depth, but we accomplished one and hopefully a start at the other if Keith performs even at a 75% rate of his historical performance. Otherwise I don't think anyone would argue that, in isolation, this deal hurts us.

But Holland is clearly putting his money on the former. Draisaitl (according to the post below yours) and McDavid (by rumors) are also putting their money on the former.

Players notice these things... bringing Keith here sends a message. For better or worse, our soft, defeatist dressing room... the one we've all voiced concern about... will not be the issue.

There is plenty of work to still be done, but if this moves works out even reasonably on the ice... it will reverberate through that room and through the players that "finally got it" by learning from Keith. Those reverberations, reinforced (with hope) by some playoff success could echo for years after Keith has retired.

At some point you gotta be all in. This is an all in move. Sure... executed by a dinosaur,... but that's how dinosaurs go all in.

At least he had the cajones to do it.

PS: As a guy currently trapped on the wrong side of the border from my family... I do not discount the fact that Keith was not himself this pandemic year. His team sucked and his six year old was on the wrong side of a border he could only cross if he was able to stay for two weeks. It would not surprise if he didn't get to see his kid for the entire season. I don't care who you are, that's tough and can't be good for your performance at work.

Yup, this stuff absolutely matters, and another thing that really matters is keeping McDavid and Draisaitl happy. It's clear as day to me that adding a guy like Keith is something both of those guys are really excited about. Like people can think what they want about the trade value but in terms of Keith as a player and an individual he is going to help this team on and off the ice. This team needs a veteran presence like him in the worst way. Of course he's only one guy and truthfully this team could use another two guys with a similar presence but this is a step in the right direction. McDavid and Drai will appreciate him, and I'm sure he can have a positive impact on guys like Bear and Bouchard too.
 

Drivesaitl

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Oct 8, 2017
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One begat’s the other my friend. Great prospects become great players by learning from great players. How high would Nuges ceiling have been if was taught by a guy like Getzlaf or Thorton instead of Horcoff. When Holland said he wants to build a consistent contender this is what he meant. The wings were so good for so long because the had great players teach good prospects how to win. How good would Schultz or Gilbert or Petry have been if the learned from a guy like Keith instead of a guy like Ference?
This is an odd point. Because Keith is just a bit more of a great player than say K Lowe was. Teams don't win because of K Lowe, or Duncan Keith, they win because they are a good part of loaded in talent clubs.

McD and Drai are legit great players. 38yr old Duncan Keith certainly isn't.
 

Drivesaitl

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With respect Drivesaitl... this is the player thread, not the deal thread.

If you could compartmentalize the deal separately for a second it actually would be interesting to hear your (or anyone's) take on the actual on-ice Keith, independent of his cap hit.

Seeing that people are still citing my posts days after I had stepped out of the thread I'll respond.

Some different things have been stated since I exited thread. Theres notions of what it takes to win, DK instilling calm, team chemisty etc.

Again I'll be clear here with my assessment;

1)38yr old Duncan Keith does not cause a team to Win. Not on the ice, not on the bench. He's not that much of a player now, not an impact player (certainly less than Barrie now)
2) DK only won cups, (any) because he played a part in a packed lineup. I don't think there could be many arguments that Kane and Toews were unstoppable forces for the Hawks. I think they played a bigger role. Keith was probably the best part of a solid D core. I realize people could retrospectively say Keith was a bigger factor.

3) Winning, culture, isn't some bottled ingredient. What Duncan Keith knows about winning is encapsulated in some mega Chicago Black Hawk lineup that had enormous forward and D depth. If one guy wasn't making a difference another was. On that allstar Hawks lineup you just had to look down the bench, somebody was going to get it done.
DK wouldn't know anymore about winning than K Lowe would. If such a thing was so easy to transfer it would have happened here already.

4) Further to Keith (even in prime) only being a piece of a puzzle, its incumbent that the team shore up any holes in topsix, in forwards, goaltending, and of course sign Larsson. 38yr old DK is just an addon D here. Less good on the ice currently than Adam Larsson. Not even close to Darnell Nurse. But we're paying him too much to be a 3-4 which has bearing because DK is only going to be helpful if we ice a complete lineup in the fall. Not one full of holes and where almost all the offense is McDrai.
 

Drivesaitl

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I mean, I live here in Montreal, and most fans still love Weber despite his plummet in on-ice ability. Everyone understand Petry is clearly their #1.

If things work out as well as we hope, Keith is basically being brought in to be more or less a 2nd Captain. Not the "best player" captain, but the "experienced" captain.

Mario had that with Trottier.
Crosby had Gonchar.. and Mario.

What we saw in the playoffs this past year was McDavid losing his temper, and Bear handling the puck like a hand grenade. Our team certainly didn't act composed at all. Especially when holding onto leads, or going into Overtime.

In those moments, what we needed was some leadership. REAL leadership.
As great as McDavid is, REAL leadership comes from experience.


Ask people in nearly any industry, what it feels like being "managed" by a hot-shot 20 year old.
It's an emotional rollercoaster, mixed with hot-headed decisions, and inability to properly empathize with others, and difficulty identifying or communicating.


Similar to what Weber does in Montreal, Keith can likely calm a LOT of that down. He's basically someone the entire league looks up to.

We paid a very steep price for him, but he's brought in to be our "Trottier".


As much as I hated that trade, I'll be cheering my guts out for him.
This is a good post. I appreciate somebody taking the time to express their thoughts.

Hope you don't mind this response but hinges on the bolded.

keith, a career veteran Hawk is coming to his first other club for the first time in his professional life. I can even sense trepidation. (Its understandable that he's nervous) He's not going to be like Chris Pronger here who was a true elite D and transformed hockey clubs wherever he went because he was just so good at everything. Keith is 38yrs old, Not close to being at top of game, and everything in his leadership and experience will be answerable to his on ice results here. I could sense a successful Keith here perhaps being more vocal. But he will be just as susceptible to being quiet if things go south for him at times, and they will.

The comparisons to Trottier, Mario, they are off because those best players in their game. They were the best at their craft.

The strongest point is about what it feels like to be led by a 20year old. But Connor and Leon are older than that now, have been through some wars. and its going to be tough for Keith to think he can interject a lot with them. Indeed Keith may be awed by them. Will Keith really have the balls and confidence to come into a new room here and offer sage advice or rock the boat? Is he really somebody that injects calm when things aren't going well? The Hawks won their 3 clubs mostly when they were blowing teams up. I'm not sure how much they needed to be a sage team that was gutting out close games. They had the firepower to run clubs out of the rink and a lot of goal support.

Finally, despite the sweep a lot of leadership was shown by the Oilers in games 2, 3, 4. Hockey is cruel and we lost all those games in OT. Mostly because we werent' getting any breaks. tbh I don't think a Keith on the bench alters that outcome. I think its hopeful to think it does. Simulate that series over many times and we win. The Oilers were quite on a reasonable playoff game. Shutout game in game 2. Going 6 periods in OT in game 4. The only game where its even plausible Keith could have made a difference is game 3, which we should have won. Its possible that what you state has application in that game. But not in the series as a whole. The strange thing is imo Hossa was the catalyst in Chicago. Put them over the top.
 
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Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
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Yup, this stuff absolutely matters, and another thing that really matters is keeping McDavid and Draisaitl happy. It's clear as day to me that adding a guy like Keith is something both of those guys are really excited about. Like people can think what they want about the trade value but in terms of Keith as a player and an individual he is going to help this team on and off the ice. This team needs a veteran presence like him in the worst way. Of course he's only one guy and truthfully this team could use another two guys with a similar presence but this is a step in the right direction. McDavid and Drai will appreciate him, and I'm sure he can have a positive impact on guys like Bear and Bouchard too.

With respect the Toronto Maple Leafs tried to bring in several vet players to try to instill something to the team and the core. to try to change something within it. The leafs result this post season was arguably worse.
Veteran presense is helpful when those vets are still at or close to the top of their game. In the case of Toronto that wasnt the case, and its arguably not the case with Keith here.

In short to this point Keith is tasked with doing something that all the following players didn't get done in Toronto;
Tavares, Muzzin, Spezza, Thornton, Simmonds, Foligno. Marleau etc.

I mean the Leafs loaded up on vets and it just made them a slower club. Muzzin alone is a better D than 38yr old Keith and not even close.
 

joestevens29

Registered User
Apr 30, 2009
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Does this mean you think our Dcore has underachieved?

A core anchored by Larsson/Nurse + a bunch of plugs/rookies like KRussell/Jones/Lagesson/Bear... that's just a problem of not being good enough, and not a problem with "mentorship"
The fact is take the mentorship out and Keith is our third best d-man, second that is actually under contract.

So while a bad trade this is good for the d on paper.
 

duul

Registered User
Jun 21, 2010
10,462
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Gone are the days when our top defensive prospects (the area where this team has struggled the most for decades) are being taught how to conduct themselves, play, and think the game by our #1 defencemen Andrej Sekera and Sheldon Souray.

If Keith comes in and plays solidly like I’m sure he can, he is a massive addition. Guy was the best defenceman in the NHL for many years. He’s still lightning quick in his decision making with the puck. He’s still a waterbug out there.

We have watched players struggle here, leave, and flourish. Well, Chicago is a tire fire in the same way we’ve been in years past. I bet on Keith leading the way for this club on the back end. Nurse is the guy right now and for good reason, but Keith could transform our group completely. Can’t think of a better available option to be there for guys like Nurse, Bear, Bouchard, Broberg.

I am excited and I’m sure the players are too. He will have an A as well.
 
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