Player Discussion Duncan Keith

[bellagiobob]

Keith had a strong supporting cast of D on the Hawks, and the strongest forward group in hockey. Lots of games where Keith wasn't even the best D on the club. Nobody has ever seen him play a game without the Hawks, and we're about to.

He sure hasn't looked like a Norris Trophy winner any time lately.

Disagree on your assessment. Lowe would at least be in that convo, and similar D. Keith was more prolific, but also on the PP. Lowe had MUCH better goal differential on ice stats. Needs to be understood that Lowe played D on a team, and was its shutdown guy, on a high flying team that often didn't care about D. What would Lowe have looked like in a career playing dedicated system D when all players were buying into the effort?

Lowe had 4 better +/- seasons than Keith ever had and was +260 in career. Keith 144. Lowes worst ever season was -10, as a 20yr old. Keith has been as bad as 29, and -13, just last season.

I think our perceptions of Lowe as a manager colors our thoughts on how much of a tower he was as a player.

I'm pretty good at separating the player from the manager. Really liked Lowe as a player. Very valuable cog. We differ in opinion on comparing both players in their peak years, which is fine.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Keith had a strong supporting cast of D on the Hawks, and the strongest forward group in hockey. Lots of games where Keith wasn't even the best D on the club. Nobody has ever seen him play a game without the Hawks, and we're about to.

He sure hasn't looked like a Norris Trophy winner any time lately.

Disagree on your assessment. Lowe would at least be in that convo, and similar D. Keith was more prolific, but also on the PP. Lowe had MUCH better goal differential on ice stats. Needs to be understood that Lowe played D on a team, and was its shutdown guy, on a high flying team that often didn't care about D. What would Lowe have looked like in a career playing dedicated system D when all players were buying into the effort?

Lowe had 4 better +/- seasons than Keith ever had and was +260 in career. Keith 144. Lowes worst ever season was -10, as a 20yr old. Keith has been as bad as 29, and -13, just last season.

I think our perceptions of Lowe as a manager colors our thoughts on how much of a tower he was as a player.

Strongest forward group in hockey? They never had a 2C . Their defense and goaltending is literally biggest the reason they won those cups

 

[Drivesaitl]

Strongest forward group in hockey? They never had a 2C . Their defense and goaltending is literally biggest the reason they won those cups

Gonna call bullcrap on this. Last year the Hawks won the cup their GF was top in the postseason scoring 69goals. They could put the puck in the net. Their GA was considerable. 60GA.

But they played more games than most teams so to be fair in GF it was 3.00/G and 2.61 against. So they were third in GF/G and they were 8th (average) in GA among all playoff clubs.

In 2010 even more pronounced. The Hawks filled the net for playoff hockey scoring 3.55G/G and 2.65GA

The only argument you could make is the 2013 W.

 

[Spawn]

Keith had a strong supporting cast of D on the Hawks, and the strongest forward group in hockey. Lots of games where Keith wasn't even the best D on the club. Nobody has ever seen him play a game without the Hawks, and we're about to.

He sure hasn't looked like a Norris Trophy winner any time lately.

Disagree on your assessment. Lowe would at least be in that convo, and similar D. Keith was more prolific, but also on the PP. Lowe had MUCH better goal differential on ice stats. Needs to be understood that Lowe played D on a team, and was its shutdown guy, on a high flying team that often didn't care about D. What would Lowe have looked like in a career playing dedicated system D when all players were buying into the effort?

Lowe had 4 better +/- seasons than Keith ever had and was +260 in career. Keith 144. Lowes worst ever season was -10, as a 20yr old. Keith has been as bad as 29, and -13, just last season.

I think our perceptions of Lowe as a manager colors our thoughts on how much of a tower he was as a player.

Of course Keith hasn't looked like a Norris Trophy winner lately. He's 38 years old. Alternatively you have Kevin Lowe... who never looked like a Norris Trophy winner ever.

Duncan Keith is a stone cold mortal lock for first ballot hall of fame. Kevin Lowe was an undeserved throw in in a down year for players more than 20 years after he retired.

 

[Tom Brady]

Lowe and Keith should not be put in the same sentence, EVER.

You could make a case for Keith being the best player on his team all of his cup winning years. In 2015 he won the Conn Smythe unanimously, that postseason he was as good as it gets.

He's also a 2 time Norris trophy winner.

 

[Drivesaitl]

This is what I get for being a Drew Doughty fan here. I was never amazed by Keith. Mind you I wasn't a Hawks fan, ever. Had the same distaste for them as I did for Tampa. heh. but my opinion is being outvoted, I get it, I probably paid less attention to the playoffs the years the Hawks won. Just can't stand them. So I'll consider myself wrong on what Duncan Keith WAS. Its immaterial to what he is now in anycase.

 

[The Panther]

So, what's going on with Barrie and Larsson? No news yet?

I would be perfectly happy to see Barrie leave if Klefbom was back, in good health and ready to go. But since that's off the table, it kind of skews everything.

I mean, has anybody talked about this yet? If Barrie leaves (as seems likely, now that they've tied up cap money into a 38-year old), and Klefbom is eternally out, who exactly is going to quarterback the Power-play -- that thing which is the #1 reason the Oilers have had two back-to-back winning seasons?

 

[McJC]

So, what's going on with Barrie and Larsson? No news yet?

I would be perfectly happy to see Barrie leave if Klefbom was back, in good health and ready to go. But since that's off the table, it kind of skews everything.

I mean, has anybody talked about this yet? If Barrie leaves (as seems likely, now that they've tied up cap money into a 38-year old), and Klefbom is eternally out, who exactly is going to quarterback the Power-play -- that thing which is the #1 reason the Oilers have had two back-to-back winning seasons?

I mean, its McDrai who really runs the PP... all you need to do is put a competent defenseman who can pass the puck to those guys and the PP likely doesnt miss a beat

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

I mean, its McDrai who really runs the PP... all you need to do is put a competent defenseman who can pass the puck to those guys and the PP likely doesnt miss a beat

Bouchard looked really good in terms of puck movement and shot selection; it will be nice to have a point-man who can hammer accurate 100 mph one-timers/slap shots, for a change

 

[Stoneman89]

Bouchard looked really good in terms of puck movement and shot selection; it will be nice to have a point-man who can hammer accurate 100 mph one-timers/slap shots, for a change

Even more importantly, is a dman that find the seams to get the puck through. The ability to hammer the puck is all well and good, but remember the "shinpad assassin", Andre Sekera? We need guys with the ability to walk the line and get the puck through.

 

[Stoneman89]

This is what I get for being a Drew Doughty fan here. I was never amazed by Keith. Mind you I wasn't a Hawks fan, ever. Had the same distaste for them as I did for Tampa. heh. but my opinion is being outvoted, I get it, I probably paid less attention to the playoffs the years the Hawks won. Just can't stand them. So I'll consider myself wrong on what Duncan Keith WAS. Its immaterial to what he is now in anycase.

Doughty and Keith two very different kind of players. Dought was big, strong and physical. Keith was never going to manhandle you, but he beat you with his skating, smart playmaking and moving the puck. I remember one of the series where the Kings basically said they were going to run the smaller, swifter Hawks out of the building, especially targeting Keith. The Hawks took every blow the Kings could muster, and moved on to the finals.

 

[bucks_oil]

I actually dissagree with the bolded part. And would not reffer to the Hawks goalies as "great".

One of the many issues with stats like xGA% is that for two shots from the same possition, with a D-men between the puck and the net, it is a matter of inches between the D-men screening the goalie or not, yet the xGA assigns them the same probability of going in. A good D-men will know how to possition himself, a bad D-men will screen his goalie many times. And this does apply to many "shots from similar situations", the D-men doing his job properly can make the shot easier to handle for the goalie (it can be as simple as taking the pass option away, not allowing the player to turn, or many simple things like this: the shoter having other good options besides the shot makes it harder for the goalie).

While in some cases it is true that a high xGA and low GA is a sign of great goaltender, I highly suspect that a D-men which regularly outperforms his xGA is good defensively, while a D-man who regularly underperforms his xGA is probably bad defensively.

The main issue with statistics and analytics is that everyone can make many tables with nice figures, they can sort them. But while everyone thinks they are an expert, very few people can actually undertstand what the numbers really mean. It gets a good statistician to see beyond the numbers, and even then they are sometimes wrong. I see this often also in peer review articles, where the statistics is not done properly, and I see this almost always in "hockey analytics".

Yeah... I'm a goalie so I completely agree with your first paragraph. As I said, I'm not a big fan of any "predicted" stats rather than actuals... as you say there is so much nuance with playing the game... I regularly bark at my defenders when they have their legs open while challenging a shooter. A good defenseman will close his legs as the wind-up comes, meaning as a goalie I have a "two legged wall" and I only have to choose one side to peak around. A bad defensemen will keep his legs spread, and now there are three windows for the puck to emerge from and four surfaces (inside and outside of each leg) that the puck can deflect off.

I guess I felt compelled to use one advanced stat, flawed as they may be.

 

[bucks_oil]

Seems like point 2 was misunderstood. I never stated Lowe or Keith were "passengers" K Lowe was the 2 D (behind only Coffey in value) on a star studded legend club. It seems in this convo that it is Lowe being undervaluated. He was in every way the equal of Duncan Keith. The only reason Lowe wasn't considered the best D on the Oilers was that Coffey was on a level of Bourque and Orr. I don't know your age, if you're old enough to have watched the dynasty team but Lowe was the closest (along with Huddy) to being our version of shutdown D. They logged big minutes when needed.

I mean if anybody thinks I'm devaluing Keith in the convo by comparing to K Lowe, it seems they aren't too familiar with K Lowe, the player.
The point anyway was that K Lowe was around 6 on that depth chart of players depending on who people list any given year. Now thats damn good because that was the best team selected ever in hockey. A team miles better than the Chicago Black Hawks were.
Now that said I do view Keith as the 3rd best hockey player during that cup run. Maybe thats unfair, and people put him at first.
In anycase transpose Duncan Keith to 80's Oilers and he's also 2nd best to Paul Coffey, with Coffey just being that good.

Present day Keith is not even a comparable to Barrie in value, performance, anything. One led the NHL in points just this season. The other put up very ordinary numbers in every aspect and with clearly declining assets. I mean cannot you not see that in Barries case the attributes are still there. and that we obtained him in prime, at age 28. I was thrilled to get Barrie in prime. Said he would be transformative here and he was.

So this year we're getting Keith, watching Larsson leave, and not even attempting to resign Barrie which is a cats breakfast piece of work.

Finally Barrie is a highly prized asset seeking a big contract that probably gets it on the basis of leading the league in pts as a D. Keith is viewed generally, as somebody making 5.5M that should have had substantial retention in trade. So clearly its not equitable value. Unless one believes in this kind of mythical lore of players going to new clubs and getting them a cup. It rarely happens.
When it Happened with Mark Messier he added so many former Oilers that at one time the Rangers had 7 Oilers. The latter being the kind of extent a club needs to go to to try to buy a cup. Not possible in Cap era.

No I'm with you on Lowe, I'm of the right vintage. And it's fine to have Keith #3 on the Hawks (I think Kane without Toews and Keith probably doesn't win anything). I'd have him #2 myself, but top three shouldn't really be debatable.

So then I guess I still don't understand your point. You seemed to be implying that the depth on the Hawks was so good, they'd win regardless of Keith. I just can't see how that could be true. If you said without Seabrook... yeah maybe (he's a far closer comparable to vintage Lowe). But without Keith? Their MVP for the first cup? No way. No how.

And why?: the closest comparison (position aside) we'd have had back then would be Messier... Keith was a heart and soul guy on that team who also happened to be an elite, best at his position, game changer.

The rest of your post is speculative... we haven't lost Larsson yet (have we? I've been unplugged all weekend). And I'd expect if we lose out on Larsson, who knows, perhaps Barrie is back in the fold (though he'd still be a poor fit with Bear and Bouchard).

Keith isn't going to bring Barrie's offense, but I do believe the net effect of his own play and leadership will be a calming influence back there. I expect him to be a bigger part of the overall team than Barrie... but he's old... so we'll see.

Finally... since I know you are a deep man. Given Keith's fitness (Chelios like)... I just don't believe he physically fell off a cliff. I think it was about passion & motivation. And I am betting that now that he's on the same side of the border as his family, a lot of the off-ice distractions that may have worn him down will be gone.... and end up being a positive influence on a guy who now has (I'm sure he'd be thinking) another shot at a cup where he can retire a hero.

 

[Oilhawks]

There’s no way the Hawks win 3 cups without Keith. Unbelievable

Maybe they win the 1st one, which was arguably the deepest roster they had, but certainly not the other two. Guess a Conn Smythe means sweet f*** all

 

[Drivesaitl]

Doughty and Keith two very different kind of players. Dought was big, strong and physical. Keith was never going to manhandle you, but he beat you with his skating, smart playmaking and moving the puck. I remember one of the series where the Kings basically said they were going to run the smaller, swifter Hawks out of the building, especially targeting Keith. The Hawks took every blow the Kings could muster, and moved on to the finals.

Kind of selective memory.

The Kings-Hawks played two series during their cup eras and split them. The Kings won the series in 2014. The Kings also filled the net in last 6 games of that series scoring 27 times. Doesn't look like the mighty Hawks took every blow the Kings could muster.

 

[tardigrade81]

Of course Keith hasn't looked like a Norris Trophy winner lately. He's 38 years old. Alternatively you have Kevin Lowe... who never looked like a Norris Trophy winner ever.

Duncan Keith is a stone cold mortal lock for first ballot hall of fame. Kevin Lowe was an undeserved throw in in a down year for players more than 20 years after he retired.

This!

 

[CravenMH]

I've had time to calm down after the trade. I would have liked to see a couple mill retained or a bad contract back but what's done is done.

I don't share the sentiment that his wheels have fell completely off, of course he's not the player he once was but he will still be our second best defenseman and you can bet he will be pushing Nurse to continue his forward progression. You always want to have healthy competition on a team to ensure no one takes a step back for fear of losing icetime.

Cap hit aside, he is a positive addition to the roster imo and I hope that fans will be classy enough to cheer him on. He's our guy now and we want him to be comfortable and confident to be a part of overall team success.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I've had time to calm down after the trade. I would have liked to see a couple mill retained or a bad contract back but what's done is done.

I don't share the sentiment that his wheels have fell completely off, of course he's not the player he once was but he will still be our second best defenseman and you can bet he will be pushing Nurse to continue his forward progression. You always want to have healthy competition on a team to ensure no one takes a step back for fear of losing icetime.

Cap hit aside, he is a positive addition to the roster imo and I hope that fans will be classy enough to cheer him on. He's our guy now and we want him to be comfortable and confident to be a part of overall team success.

Unfortunately fans will wait for every single mistake to repeat how awful Keith and the trade was. As is the Oilers fan way

 

[CravenMH]

Unfortunately fans will wait for every single mistake to repeat how awful Keith and the trade was. As is the Oilers fan way

Yeah I sincerely hope this isn't the case. I hope we hit rock bottom years ago with fans throwing sweaters on the ice, booing players down the tunnel and all that crap. I hope we're better than that now, we want players to want to be here. We did ourselves no favors back then, no player wanted to come here.

 

[oobga]

Unfortunately fans will wait for every single mistake to repeat how awful Keith and the trade was. As is the Oilers fan way

I like his chances to turn even the people defending him in the summer

There really is no escape from bad play with Oilers fan analysis

 

[SaltNPeca]

I've had time to calm down after the trade. I would have liked to see a couple mill retained or a bad contract back but what's done is done.

I don't share the sentiment that his wheels have fell completely off, of course he's not the player he once was but he will still be our second best defenseman and you can bet he will be pushing Nurse to continue his forward progression. You always want to have healthy competition on a team to ensure no one takes a step back for fear of losing icetime.

Cap hit aside, he is a positive addition to the roster imo and I hope that fans will be classy enough to cheer him on. He's our guy now and we want him to be comfortable and confident to be a part of overall team success.

Same. #1 retention, #2 don't like that WE gave the pick.

I am critical of the trade details, not the player. I think if he has a junk season and retires it's good for the Oilers.
Not drinking the kool aid again on this kind of player tho.

 

[MettleMcOiler]

Holy **** it's starting to sink in.

We have THEE Duncan Keith on our team.

Forget the trade and the cap hit for a moment. Seriously, just for a moment.

When was the last time we had such a prestigious player wanting to come to Edmonton?

For some reason I feel very grateful as an Oiler fan right now. God Bless you, Keith. Again Welcome to Edmonton!!

 

[Steven Toast]

Holy **** it's starting to sink in.

We have THEE Duncan Keith on our team.

Forget the trade and the cap hit for a moment. Seriously, just for a moment.

When was the last time we had such a prestigious player wanting to come to Edmonton?

For some reason I feel very grateful as an Oiler fan right now. God Bless you, Keith. Again Welcome to Edmonton!!

If only he had wanted to come here a decade ago.

 

[McVirginOil]

I hope Keith isn’t someone that was involved in the surfacing incidents.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I hope Keith isn’t someone that was involved in the surfacing incidents.

Sorry, we aren't allowed to talk about that.