Prospect Info: Ducks Prospect Info 2020-21

[The Midnight Burrito]

Thrun's season is over, Moore moves on after Chicago beat Dubuque 2 games to none. Thrun was pointless, Moore had an assist in the series. Chicago plays Muskegon beginning Friday, another best-of-three.

Chicago swept Muskegon, Moore had 1 assist in 2 games, and Chicago will face Fargo in the Clark Cup final, best-of-five beginning this coming Friday.

 

[tomd]

Tracey looked frighteningly bad in the AHL this year, and it looks like Victoria was sort of a dud, too. I'm a bit worried about him, but only a bit.

Yeah, 95% of the time a player doesn't look this bad at lower levels and then goes on to become an NHL player. Next year in the AHL is going to reveal a lot about where he is as a player. I'm not optimistic at all.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Yeah, 95% of the time a player doesn't look this bad at lower levels and then goes on to become an NHL player. Next year in the AHL is going to reveal a lot about where he is as a player. I'm not optimistic at all.

Imagine if they had picked Shane Pinto instead of Tracey. Pinto I see is listed as a Center by Ottawa and already producing at NHL level.

Maddens worst picks are probably Holland, Larsson, Jones and Ritchie.
3 of 4 are forwards.
Jones only because of where he was drafted expected more of a 3rd liner than 4th line energy guy.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Yeah, 95% of the time a player doesn't look this bad at lower levels and then goes on to become an NHL player. Next year in the AHL is going to reveal a lot about where he is as a player. I'm not optimistic at all.

I don't know that you could use that rule of thumb to evaluate him based on this weird year. He was much too small and immature to be playing in the AHL, that was clear. But I wouldn't necessarily project anything based on that. My worry stems more from the fact that maybe he didn't do much developing this season.

 

[ADHB]

Yeah, 95% of the time a player doesn't look this bad at lower levels and then goes on to become an NHL player. Next year in the AHL is going to reveal a lot about where he is as a player. I'm not optimistic at all.

Have said this before, but just by the eye test, there isn’t much projection to be done for him. Kind of a weird 1st round pick tbh unless the scouts saw something that isn’t really obvious. He’s not big, not physical, not a great skater, doesn’t appear to have a great motor/drive. His shot is decent, and I guess you could say maybe he has a nose for the net. But his lack of everything else negates the few decent qualities he does have. Hopefully I’m proven wrong, but he just looks like a run of the mill minor leaguer to me.

 

[tomd]

Imagine if they had picked Shane Pinto instead of Tracey. Pinto I see is listed as a Center by Ottawa and already producing at NHL level.

Maddens worst picks are probably Holland, Larsson, Jones and Ritchie.
3 of 4 are forwards.
Jones only because of where he was drafted expected more of a 3rd liner than 4th line energy guy.

Yeah, 20-20 hindsight on Tracey isn't going to be good especially since he was a bit of a reach anyway. He had a great draft year and great start to his D+1 year but it has just all fallen apart for him. Career AHLer is what I see in his future but I hope I'm wrong.

Regarding the others, I think Ritchie had to be taken at #10 but the first time I saw him speak I was worried. Jones had 2nd line upside and honestly with one or two exceptions there hasn't been anyone from that draft taken after him who has broken out (with the obvious exception of Debrincat who the Ducks were never going to draft anyway).

 

[tomd]

I don't know that you could use that rule of thumb to evaluate him based on this weird year. He was much too small and immature to be playing in the AHL, that was clear. But I wouldn't necessarily project anything based on that. My worry stems more from the fact that maybe he didn't do much developing this season.

He didn't look like a 1st rounder in the 2nd half of last year either. So it's now 1 1/2 years of non-development. No bueno.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

I don't know that you could use that rule of thumb to evaluate him based on this weird year. He was much too small and immature to be playing in the AHL, that was clear. But I wouldn't necessarily project anything based on that. My worry stems more from the fact that maybe he didn't do much developing this season.

I think that Perreault has been just OK for the large majority of the season in San Diego, but he's looked miles ahead of Tracey at any point this year despite the fact that he should be a year behind him in development, and several of his peers drafted in the 1st round look like they've eclipsed him. I'm not ready to bail, but it certainly doesn't look good.

Still wonder if he's feeling lingering effects from the shoulder injury last year.

 

[Static]

Tracey's trade to Victoria has been an absolute disaster.

 

[tomd]

I think that Perreault has been just OK for the large majority of the season in San Diego, but he's looked miles ahead of Tracey at any point this year despite the fact that he should be a year behind him in development, and several of his peers drafted in the 1st round look like they've eclipsed him. I'm not ready to bail, but it certainly doesn't look good.

Still wonder if he's feeling lingering effects from the shoulder injury last year.

Never like to see anyone in pain but we all should hope that the shoulder is still not 100%. Otherwise his regression is just not explainable in any good way.

 

[Goose of Reason]

Eh I'm still on the side that he's a bit of a victim of circumstance, last year was Victoria's year to make a run which was based on playing a tight defensive system and low scoring games, and now that team just plain sucks. He still leads them in scoring, he's had some rough luck with teams the past couple years.

 

[Static]

Eh I'm still on the side that he's a bit of a victim of circumstance, last year was Victoria's year to make a run which was based on playing a tight defensive system and low scoring games, and now that team just plain sucks. He still leads them in scoring, he's had some rough luck with teams the past couple years.

Yeah, I think the team change has been the biggest factor.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

He didn't look like a 1st rounder in the 2nd half of last year either. So it's now 1 1/2 years of non-development. No bueno.

I find this odd. So much nuance amiss here. Tracey's D+1 year with Moose Jaw improved his ppg rate without top end players next to him. Unfortunately, Moose Jaw didn't play any defense. It was a shootout game ever game and Moose Jaw was at the bottom of the league, a non-playoff team. Then the switch to Victoria, a playoff team known for its defense and little offense.

Tracey
Year	Team	Games	G	A	Pts	Pts/Game
2018-19	Moose Jaw	66	36	45	81	1.23
2019-20	Moose Jaw	28	15	23	38	1.36
	Victoria	24	7	16	23	0.96
2020-20	Victoria	20	8	11	19	0.95

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Unfortunately, Covid prevented Victoria and Tracey from playing in the playoffs. Tracey started heating up and was looking forward to his playoff performance. Just how bad was Victoria's offense?

Victoria 2019-20	Games	GF	GA	W	L	OTL	Pts	.	GF/g	GA/g
Total	64	176	190	32	24	6	70		2.75	2.97
Before Tracey	37	94	92	22	13	0	44		2.54	2.49
w Tracey	27	82	98	10	11	6	26		3.04	3.63
Difference	Tracey	minus	Victoria	37 games	.	.	.	.	0.50	1.14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Victoria traded away defense for Tracey's offense and G Evanoff. As you can see, Tracey increase Victoria's scoring by half a goal per game. That's huge! Unfortunately, the defense did not hold up. I broke down what happened per month once Tracey was acquired.

2019-20
Victoria	Games	GF	GA	W	L	OTL	Pts		GF/g	GA/g
Total	64	176	190	32	24	6	70		2.75	2.97
Before Tracey	37	94	92	22	13	0	44		2.54	2.49
Jan	11	31	42	3	5	3	9		2.82	3.82
Feb	12	39	44	5	5	2	12		3.25	3.67
Mar	4	12	12	2	1	1	5		3.00	3.00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It looks like the team improved its defense while increasing the offense. This is what I really liked about Tracey going to Victoria... Tracey is learning to play defense.
​

This year, Tracey started off against AHL players. When drafted, he's 6'0 and 176 lbs. He said he gained 20 lbs of mass during the offseason. Let's compare him to 2020 late first rounder Jacob Perreault. Perreault is 5'11 and 192 lbs when drafted. He probably has added more mass as he was working out with his dad, former NHL'er Yannick. Tracey is behind physically to Perreault and that's why he looks out of place in the AHL as an 19-year old. Yet, both Tracey and Perrault looked like small fish to start the season.

Now, we see that Tracey has similar ppg rate for Victoria for the past two seasons. Victoria got rid of key players it had during the off-season. Essentially, Victoria sold out like Moose Jaw did in 2019-20 season. Moose Jaw traded away key players to get younger before the start of the 2019-20 season. We can say that this season's Victoria lacks significant talent, yet Tracey is still trying to keep near a ppg rate. What makes this interesting is his PP production is up.

Tracey
Year	Team	Games	G	A	Pts	.	PPG	PPA	PPP
2019-20	Victoria	24	7	16	24		2	5	7
2020-21	Victoria	20	8	11	19		6	6	12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It's difficult to score at ES when opposing teams know to lock Victoria's most potent weapon in Tracey this season. But with the man advantage, Tracey has been able to go on a tear. This is very promising because Anaheim is down right abysmal on the PP.

Tracey is probably two to three years away from the NHL. His body still needs to develop. Being stuck on bad teams means he needs an atmosphere to help get reps at playing the two-way game. Tracey, imo, was always seen as a long term project. Many people questioned if his scoring was a result of his overager linemates for his draft season. Apparently, that wasn't the case as he improved his ppg rate the following season with Moose Jaw. He was Victoria's leading scorer (ppg rate) at the end of the season after the trade. Today, he's tied for scoring on Victoria with 19 points.

I didn't think Victoria would trade away key assets. I thought Tracey can growth within the defensive system set up in Victoria in his second season there. What bad luck. I think after playing 12 games in the AHL might help Tracey understand just how much more improvement is needed from him. Late round picks are gambles. It's still early in his career to be definitive. Let the boy grow some more.

 

[pbgoalie]

Imagine if they had picked Shane Pinto instead of Tracey. Pinto I see is listed as a Center by Ottawa and already producing at NHL level.

Maddens worst picks are probably Holland, Larsson, Jones and Ritchie.
3 of 4 are forwards.
Jones only because of where he was drafted expected more of a 3rd liner than 4th line energy guy.

In fairness
Larson and Jones really struggled with injuries during a key time in development didn’t they?

 

[tomd]

I find this odd. So much nuance amiss here. Tracey's D+1 year with Moose Jaw improved his ppg rate without top end players next to him. Unfortunately, Moose Jaw didn't play any defense. It was a shootout game ever game and Moose Jaw was at the bottom of the league, a non-playoff team. Then the switch to Victoria, a playoff team known for its defense and little offense.

Tracey
Year	Team	Games	G	A	Pts	Pts/Game
2018-19	Moose Jaw	66	36	45	81	1.23
2019-20	Moose Jaw	28	15	23	38	1.36
	Victoria	24	7	16	23	0.96
2020-20	Victoria	20	8	11	19	0.95

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Unfortunately, Covid prevented Victoria and Tracey from playing in the playoffs. Tracey started heating up and was looking forward to his playoff performance. Just how bad was Victoria's offense?

Victoria 2019-20	Games	GF	GA	W	L	OTL	Pts	.	GF/g	GA/g
Total	64	176	190	32	24	6	70		2.75	2.97
Before Tracey	37	94	92	22	13	0	44		2.54	2.49
w Tracey	27	82	98	10	11	6	26		3.04	3.63
Difference	Tracey	minus	Victoria	37 games	.	.	.	.	0.50	1.14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Victoria traded away defense for Tracey's offense and G Evanoff. As you can see, Tracey increase Victoria's scoring by half a goal per game. That's huge! Unfortunately, the defense did not hold up. I broke down what happened per month once Tracey was acquired.

2019-20
Victoria	Games	GF	GA	W	L	OTL	Pts		GF/g	GA/g
Total	64	176	190	32	24	6	70		2.75	2.97
Before Tracey	37	94	92	22	13	0	44		2.54	2.49
Jan	11	31	42	3	5	3	9		2.82	3.82
Feb	12	39	44	5	5	2	12		3.25	3.67
Mar	4	12	12	2	1	1	5		3.00	3.00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It looks like the team improved its defense while increasing the offense. This is what I really liked about Tracey going to Victoria... Tracey is learning to play defense.
​

This year, Tracey started off against AHL players. When drafted, he's 6'0 and 176 lbs. He said he gained 20 lbs of mass during the offseason. Let's compare him to 2020 late first rounder Jacob Perreault. Perreault is 5'11 and 192 lbs when drafted. He probably has added more mass as he was working out with his dad, former NHL'er Yannick. Tracey is behind physically to Perreault and that's why he looks out of place in the AHL as an 19-year old. Yet, both Tracey and Perrault looked like small fish to start the season.

Now, we see that Tracey has similar ppg rate for Victoria for the past two seasons. Victoria got rid of key players it had during the off-season. Essentially, Victoria sold out like Moose Jaw did in 2019-20 season. Moose Jaw traded away key players to get younger before the start of the 2019-20 season. We can say that this season's Victoria lacks significant talent, yet Tracey is still trying to keep near a ppg rate. What makes this interesting is his PP production is up.

Tracey
Year	Team	Games	G	A	Pts	.	PPG	PPA	PPP
2019-20	Victoria	24	7	16	24		2	5	7
2020-21	Victoria	20	8	11	19		6	6	12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It's difficult to score at ES when opposing teams know to lock Victoria's most potent weapon in Tracey this season. But with the man advantage, Tracey has been able to go on a tear. This is very promising because Anaheim is down right abysmal on the PP.

Tracey is probably two to three years away from the NHL. His body still needs to develop. Being stuck on bad teams means he needs an atmosphere to help get reps at playing the two-way game. Tracey, imo, was always seen as a long term project. Many people questioned if his scoring was a result of his overager linemates for his draft season. Apparently, that wasn't the case as he improved his ppg rate the following season with Moose Jaw. He was Victoria's leading scorer (ppg rate) at the end of the season after the trade. Today, he's tied for scoring on Victoria with 19 points.

I didn't think Victoria would trade away key assets. I thought Tracey can growth within the defensive system set up in Victoria in his second season there. What bad luck. I think after playing 12 games in the AHL might help Tracey understand just how much more improvement is needed from him. Late round picks are gambles. It's still early in his career to be definitive. Let the boy grow some more.

I admire your optimism...turn off the lights when you leave the Braydon Tracey fan club meeting. I think you're the only member at this point.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

All I remember about Tracey during his draft year on TV was how he was the ‘fastest riser’ on their rankings that year.

Was indifferent about the pick when players like Kaliyev, Robertson, and Hoglander were still there.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

The pandemic really screwed him too. Any other year and he'd have been traded to a good team and we'd get a better idea.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

All I remember about Tracey during his draft year on TV was how he was the ‘fastest riser’ on their rankings that year.

Was indifferent about the pick when players like Kaliyev, Robertson, and Hoglander were still there.

heh I was hoping for Thrun at the Tracey pick. Tracey wasn't even in my radar b/c I wanted defense.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I admire your optimism...turn off the lights when you leave the Braydon Tracey fan club meeting. I think you're the only member at this point.

I'm a fan of all of our prospects, even Sam Steel. I blame the org for keeping up in the NHL level this year when we had options to send him down to the AHL. The way the org makes our picks are often upon the philosophy of "what they could be in the future". Thus, nothing should be definitive this early in Tracey's career. Knowing he's a late first round pick, the chances of him making the NHL isn't as great as being selected first overall. I know the difference in talent exists, but I'm not quite sure you are cognitive of it. This is why Tracey is a longer term project.


Your post doesn't discuss anything that I brought up about Tracey. So what was the point of your post? You should learn to keep on topic than attack a person. You know you're attacking a person than discuss the idea, right? All your post says is, "I got nothing to refute with, but let's attack the person instead so I can make myself feel better for lacking any substance to the conversation."

 

[tomd]

I'm a fan of all of our prospects, even Sam Steel. I blame the org for keeping up in the NHL level this year when we had options to send him down to the AHL. The way the org makes our picks are often upon the philosophy of "what they could be in the future". Thus, nothing should be definitive this early in Tracey's career. Knowing he's a late first round pick, the chances of him making the NHL isn't as great as being selected first overall. I know the difference in talent exists, but I'm not quite sure you are cognitive of it. This is why Tracey is a longer term project.


Your post doesn't discuss anything that I brought up about Tracey. So what was the point of your post? You should learn to keep on topic than attack a person. You know you're attacking a person than discuss the idea, right? All your post says is, "I got nothing to refute with, but let's attack the person instead so I can make myself feel better for lacking any substance to the conversation."

I actually complemented you. Certainly didn't attack you unless you believe that being a fan of Tracey is an attack (misguided yes; attack no). I've laid out my concerns about Tracey in several other posts which I'm sure you've already read. Being on a low scoring junior team is certainly a factor in his numbers but he showed nothing at the AHL level either with more talented players. I'm sure privately that the Ducks are very concerned about his future.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

heh I was hoping for Thrun at the Tracey pick. Tracey wasn't even in my radar b/c I wanted defense.

This doesn’t make sense to me. Wasn’t Thrun ranked between the 40s and 50s when it came to North American skaters?

there must’ve been some reason why he dropped from a 2nd round projection to a late fourth round pick.

 

[Static]

This doesn’t make sense to me. Wasn’t Thrun ranked between the 40s and 50s when it came to North American skaters?

there must’ve been some reason why he dropped from a 2nd round projection to a late fourth round pick.

His commitment to Harvard is why he dropped. Some skating concerns as well.

 

[SoCal Dreaming]

Galimov wins KHL goal of the season.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

This doesn’t make sense to me. Wasn’t Thrun ranked between the 40s and 50s when it came to North American skaters?

there must’ve been some reason why he dropped from a 2nd round projection to a late fourth round pick.

Thrun was ranked in the late 20's. That's why I wanted him, plus what he did for the USN team and juniors.

His commitment to Harvard is why he dropped. Some skating concerns as well.

Also that he was merely a passenger to all the talent around him. But it was skating that a lot of teams passed him up, including the Ducks. We chose LaCombe over Thrun because LaCombe's skating was amazing.

 

[Static]