Prospect Info: Ducks Prospect Info 2019-2020

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

Found this on Twitter. Byron Bader has crunched numbers over the years and has formulated a draft predictor (so to say) it take’s prospects number over the past 30 years and applies them to today’s prospects who fit the same pattern of development.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Draft primer interview with Asst GM Madden. Has tidbits on both Zegras, Tracey, and Thrun.

Here's the excerpt on Tracey:

How about Brayden Tracey? His season got off to a strong start in Moose Jaw, but it didn't carry over to Victoria after the trade. What happened there?
Todd Marchant [Ducks Director of Player Development] got to see him play quite a bit. I saw him the last weekend before things were shut down. Victoria played a completely different style than Moose Jaw. In Moose Jaw, they basically had one line and he was on the ice all the time and taking chances offensively. He needed to do that for them to get any production, whereas in Victoria, it was a team concept. It was a defensive-minded coaching approach. He had to play within that system. It was an adjustment at first, but he looked really comfortable and created a lot of chances in that last weekend when I saw him in Portland. I was pleased with the progression at that time. I know he's had a really good summer in the gym. I think he's going in the right direction.​

Essentially, it's the same things a few of us were saying about Tracey's numbers dipping down after the trade due to different style of team play between Moose Jaw and Victoria... except in more detail. ha! There's still some hope for Tracey.

 

[rlstine]

Found this on Twitter. Byron Bader has crunched numbers over the years and has formulated a draft predictor (so to say) it take’s prospects number over the past 30 years and applies them to today’s prospects who fit the same pattern of development.

I appreciate these models that other people put together but if the query you input is "What is the chance Trevor Zegras makes the NHL?" and the output is anything other than "100%", you might want to reevaluate.

 

[lwvs84]

I appreciate these models that other people put together but if the query you input is "What is the chance Trevor Zegras makes the NHL?" and the output is anything other than "100%", you might want to reevaluate.

I read it as 23% chance he's a star player, 67% chance he's "just" an NHL'er. Hopefully he hits that star status.

 

[KickHisAssZegrass]

That dude's algorithm only includes points and it doesnt take account any factors like games played, strength of comp, team role etc. Basically its a very general point translation predictor

 

[neelynugs]

what's your top 10 prospect list looking like right now? wondering where axel andersson
would fit (great kid, think he'll be a nice NHL player one day), and if henry thrun has
gotten any traction.

 

[Kalv]

what's your top 10 prospect list looking like right now? wondering where axel andersson
would fit (great kid, think he'll be a nice NHL player one day), and if henry thrun has
gotten any traction.

I addressed it here:
Your Team's Top 10 Prospects
I had a hard time putting him in top1o. Kindopp is one and a half years older though, but at least produced so I went with him in #10. They both have to start playing in San Diego to get the better understanding.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Draft primer interview with Asst GM Madden. Has tidbits on both Zegras, Tracey, and Thrun.

Here's the excerpt on Tracey:

How about Brayden Tracey? His season got off to a strong start in Moose Jaw, but it didn't carry over to Victoria after the trade. What happened there?
Todd Marchant [Ducks Director of Player Development] got to see him play quite a bit. I saw him the last weekend before things were shut down. Victoria played a completely different style than Moose Jaw. In Moose Jaw, they basically had one line and he was on the ice all the time and taking chances offensively. He needed to do that for them to get any production, whereas in Victoria, it was a team concept. It was a defensive-minded coaching approach. He had to play within that system. It was an adjustment at first, but he looked really comfortable and created a lot of chances in that last weekend when I saw him in Portland. I was pleased with the progression at that time. I know he's had a really good summer in the gym. I think he's going in the right direction.​

Essentially, it's the same things a few of us were saying about Tracey's numbers dipping down after the trade due to different style of team play between Moose Jaw and Victoria... except in more detail. ha! There's still some hope for Tracey.

That nuance Madden talked about is important that's why you can't scout looking at box scores

 

[Hockey Duckie]

That nuance Madden talked about is important that's why you can't scout looking at box scores

huh? Madden is reiterating what some of us have been saying about Tracey's play. People just don't trust our reasonings. Yet, no Duck fan is gonna argue with Madden. LoL I'm glad he came out and said it. You can find nuance and context with a plethora of box scores, btw. You just have to expand your scope as well as have comparables.

 

[Kalv]

According to Complete Hockey News and EP, we have loaned Hunter Drew to HC Banska Bystrica in Slovakia.

Drew had a solid rookie pro season with the Gulls, albeit he did not put up a lot of points. Glad he will get to play

 

[KaseMeOutside]

huh? Madden is reiterating what some of us have been saying about Tracey's play. People just don't trust our reasonings. Yet, no Duck fan is gonna argue with Madden. LoL I'm glad he came out and said it. You can find nuance and context with a plethora of box scores, btw. You just have to expand your scope as well as have comparables.

What nuance can you find in a before without the context Madden provided??

 

[Hockey Duckie]

What nuance can you find in a before without the context Madden provided??

?

He reiterated what a few of us who thought Tracey still produced and the difference was the type of team he was on. BTW, there was more than box scores, but those scores also revealed that Victoria was a defensive team. In all the trade videos, Victoria gave the reason why they traded for Tracey. I did the number crunching from the box score that after the trade, Tracey improved the Royals' goal scoring by 0.5 goals per game. In March, Tracey was heating up again with 6 points (3g, 3a) in four games. I also stated what a shame the season ended as is because it would have been cool to see the rest of the season and the playoffs with Tracey heating up.

Victoria	Games	GF	GA	W	L	OTL	Pts		GF/g	GA/g
Total	64	176	190	32	24	6	70		2.75	2.97
	37	94	92	22	13	0	44		2.54	2.49
w Tracey	27	82	98	10	11	6	26		3.04	3.63

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*Note: Tracey was injured for three games, but participated in 24 games with the Royals.

It's safe to say that Victoria is a defense first team. ::: raising shoulders :::

Have you looked at Moose Jaw's GF and GA season totals? Moose Jaw GF = 146, GA = 291. That's almost 100 more goals allowed than Victoria. Despite being traded, Tracey ranks 3rd in points (38), 3rd in assists (23), and 3rd in goals (15) for Moose Jaw at the end of the season, but Tracey only played in 28 games. Scary.

I guess you have to versed in stat reading and pattern finding to get the nuance. Baseball's SABRmetrics delivers too many nuances that it's scary to understand all those acronyms and they're still adding onto it!

Anyhow, what Madden said just reaffirmed what a few of us cited all along. Again, if you're not versed in stat reading and pattern finding, then you couldn't believe you can find nuance in stats. Of course, some of us do read up on the local team's articles to get a better feel of things.

Although many of thought that Tracey would be that finisher, Tracey has proven he can be a playmaker as well.

Tracey
Year	Team	Games	G	A	Pts	Pts/Game
2018-19	Moose Jaw	66	36	45	81	1.23
2019-20	Moose Jaw	28	15	23	38	1.36
	Victoria	24	7	16	23	0.96

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It makes Tracey more dangerous offensively because he can score and dime, whichever is available to him. Remember, the 2019-20 season was to see if Tracey can produce offense at a high rate without his two overager linemates in 2018-19 of Langan and Almeida. Tracey proved that with Moose Jaw. He also proved it once again on a defensive minded team with Victoria as he had the best Pts/Game rate for Victoria. This shows that Tracey is an offensive driver.

Hopefully that helps give you insight now since you've ignored all the other posts about some of us feeling good about Tracey this past year.

 

[eternalbedhead]

I did the number crunching from the box score that after the trade, Tracey improved the Royals' goal scoring by 0.5 goals per game.

Victoria	Games	GF	GA	W	L	OTL	Pts		GF/g	GA/g
Total	64	176	190	32	24	6	70		2.75	2.97
	37	94	92	22	13	0	44		2.54	2.49
w Tracey	27	82	98	10	11	6	26		3.04	3.63

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

He also worsened their defense by a significant margin -- surely you couldn't have missed the Royals allowing a full goal per game more after the trade, right?

It's a tad early to start jumping ship -- he's young, and it's definitely an important point that Victoria's system was very defensive in nature. But come on, if you're going to get all megalomanic about your stat-watching skills, then at least recognize the whole of the picture -- and the limitations of evaluating someone's statistical output. Teams have scouting staffs for a reason; if you're going to rely on noisy player numbers, then at least acknowledge the limitations of doing so.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

In before lundestrom becomes a tweener and moves back overseas. Ide pray he puts it together as it was only his first full season in NA ice but I’m getting bad vibes from that pick

 

[Kalv]

In before lundestrom becomes a tweener and moves back overseas. Ide pray he puts it together as it was only his first full season in NA ice but I’m getting bad vibes from that pick

I am up and down with him.
He will never be a goal scoring threat in the NHL but I think he can become a decent 3C.
Remember, if he would be in CHL, he would only now turn pro. I tend to forget that.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

He also worsened their defense by a significant margin -- surely you couldn't have missed the Royals allowing a full goal per game more after the trade, right?

It's a tad early to start jumping ship -- he's young, and it's definitely an important point that Victoria's system was very defensive in nature. But come on, if you're going to get all megalomanic about your stat-watching skills, then at least recognize the whole of the picture -- and the limitations of evaluating someone's statistical output. Teams have scouting staffs for a reason; if you're going to rely on noisy player numbers, then at least acknowledge the limitations of doing so.

I thought I wrote a long post about Tracey,his splits and the whole trade factor included with Goalies involved, but I can't find it. Since I can't find it, then I'll just share it again. Anyhow, it feels quite facetious to think Bradey is the sole reason the Royals allowed a full goal per game more after the trade. Rather than do your own research, you come in with hot cakes from McDonalds.

Moose Jaw sends

F Tracey
G Evanoff
2020 4th round pick
2023 5th round pick​

Victoria sends

F Doust
G Gould
D Jones
2020 3rd round pick
2021 1st round pick
2022 2nd round pick
2022 4th round pick​

Evanoff
Team	GP	GA	GAA	Sv%	SO
Moose Jaw	22	75	3.85	0.901	1
Victoria	23	79	3.56	0.893	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Evanoff played in the 23 games of the 27 games as a Royal. He's on the ice all the time as opposed to Tracey, who is part of a forward rotation.

Tracey Plus/Minus

Moose Jaw: - 11
Victoria: - 5​

Do you think it's more possible that Evanoff had more to do with the drop in GA than Tracey and his meager -5 plus/minus rating? Sending three players away on a defensive minded team can hurt your team's chemistry. You'd think someone who's willing to attack stats thinking they see the whole picture sure seems like they're missing quite a few bits of the WHOLE PICTURE. Seriously, leave the stat monitoring and pattern finding to people who actually see the whole picture than to mere amateurs who remain ignorant.

Some audacity some people have when they're still highly ignorant.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

Someone mentioned to me that they see alot of nick backstrom in zegras. If Z turns it to be anywhere close to NB I’ll be ecstatic

 

[bsu]

Someone mentioned to me that they see alot of nick backstrom in zegras. If Z turns it to be anywhere close to NB I’ll be ecstatic

I think he is more like barzal if he can gain some more food speed definitely like barzal. He does the wide leg when protecting the puck just like barzal

 

[duxfan1101]

I think he is more like barzal if he can gain some more food speed definitely like barzal. He does the wide leg when protecting the puck just like barzal

I see the similarities there, too. He's more creative than Barzal (he's more creative than just about everyone to be fair), but obviously not as fast.

 

[Paul4587]

If he’s anything close to Backstrom or Barzal I’ll be extremely happy.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

I think he is more like barzal if he can gain some more food speed definitely like barzal. He does the wide leg when protecting the puck just like barzal

Idk barzal creates from his speed and puck management I see zegras more still like getz and more of a dissector of the play.

barzal skates and skates and skates

although I’m basing my opinion on zegras from limited viewing

 

[eternalbedhead]

I thought I wrote a long post about Tracey,his splits and the whole trade factor included with Goalies involved, but I can't find it. Since I can't find it, then I'll just share it again. Anyhow, it feels quite facetious to think Bradey is the sole reason the Royals allowed a full goal per game more after the trade. Rather than do your own research, you come in with hot cakes from McDonalds.

Moose Jaw sends

F Tracey
G Evanoff
2020 4th round pick
2023 5th round pick​

Victoria sends

F Doust
G Gould
D Jones
2020 3rd round pick
2021 1st round pick
2022 2nd round pick
2022 4th round pick​

Evanoff
Team	GP	GA	GAA	Sv%	SO
Moose Jaw	22	75	3.85	0.901	1
Victoria	23	79	3.56	0.893	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Evanoff played in the 23 games of the 27 games as a Royal. He's on the ice all the time as opposed to Tracey, who is part of a forward rotation.

Tracey Plus/Minus

Moose Jaw: - 11
Victoria: - 5​

Do you think it's more possible that Evanoff had more to do with the drop in GA than Tracey and his meager -5 plus/minus rating? Sending three players away on a defensive minded team can hurt your team's chemistry. You'd think someone who's willing to attack stats thinking they see the whole picture sure seems like they're missing quite a few bits of the WHOLE PICTURE. Seriously, leave the stat monitoring and pattern finding to people who actually see the whole picture than to mere amateurs who remain ignorant.

Some audacity some people have when they're still highly ignorant.

Dude, I don't think Napoleon himself could put on a better display. "Mere amateurs"? LMAO. Who exactly do you think you are?

First off, yes, it's totally facetious to assume that Tracey was the sole reason for Victoria allowing a full goal per game more, just like it's totally facetious to pin the goal-per-game increase on him as well. But since your expert professional nuance on skills seemed to miss that the goalie Victoria shipped *away* wasn't any better for Victoria. What's more, check out the cross tabs. Gould had a similar SV% to Evanoff in the 15 games he played for Victoria this year, but his GAA was markedly lower, indicating that Victoria was allowing a *lot* more shots on net after the acquisition of Tracey.

Again, it's facetious to pin that all on Tracey. Instead of Evanoff, for that matter (Gould played like absolute trash in Moose Jaw), it's probably more likely Doust or Jones were key defensive role players that the team struggled without. But I was being sarcastic in response to a similarly nonsense claim that Tracey, all by himself, increased the Royals' offensive output that much. If you want to (incorrectly) heap all of the Royals' improvements post-trade on Tracey, then be prepared to also saddle him (again incorrectly) with all of the team's failures after the acquisition. You don't get to cherry pick.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Someone's getting quite cocky about their ability to copy and paste a hockeydb page and surround it with verbal diarrhea.

 

[Kalv]

Someone mentioned to me that they see alot of nick backstrom in zegras. If Z turns it to be anywhere close to NB I’ll be ecstatic

I think Z is more flashy - and some of that will not work in the NHL and will be interesting how he adapts to the NHL. But he reads the game extremely well and has hands to put the puck where he wants to.

Impact wise yeah, would be awesome if Z becomes a PPG player but that's far from a guarantee.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Someone's getting quite cocky about their ability to copy and paste a hockeydb page and surround it with verbal diarrhea.

Sounds like a response by someone who doesn't comprehend stats. Either come up with an actual rebuttal, agree with it, or don't say anything if you've got nothing to bring to the discussion.