Value of: Duchene vs RNH

[klozge]

Is there any truth to the rumblings that Duchene might not report to training camp if he doesn't get traded?

This would be a stake in the heart for the Avs IMO. For all this 'helps his team' stuff, he absolutely outright quit on his team last year and everyone saw it. Refusing to report would be a dagger.

^^^ my buddy is a massive Avs fan and said he saw this somewhere. I have no idea if there's any truth to it.

Neither we nor Duchene should even have to think about what would happen if he isn't traded by then. He simply has to be traded before camp.
We've seen often enough how badly Duchene plays when something isn't going his way. We've heard how down he is in interviews when he's not scoring, no matter how well or badly the rest of the team is playing, and I highly doubt he changes his attitude once the media guys have left the locker room. The way the Avs have in front of them is difficult enough even without a sulking Duchene in the room. Also, if he stays on the team, being the mentally fragile guy he is, his value will only get down.
And that's something RNH has over Duchene. He's not completely useless and dragging his teammates down whenever it's raining outside.

 

[A91]

RNH isn't trash, his value just isn't close to Duchene's value.

RNH's career year is basically equivalent to Duchene's rookie season. Not to mention the fact that Duchene is a better faceoff man and probably the better two way player (this is pretty close IMO).

.

You serious? Duchene doesnt touch RNH when it comes to defensive play.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think Duchene has more upside but they are close today in value on the trade market. And that trade market value is not what Sakic or the rumors have indicated. Think about the centers traded over the last few years. Carter, Richards, Seguin, ROR, RyJo, Spezza, Brassard, etc and then what the return was. Besides Brassard, is Duchene or RNH better than any of those guys at the time they were traded?

Teams are a bit worried about giving full value or more for Duchene or RNH. They are young players with decline in stats. They could work out like Seguin did or they could turn into Richards too. This is why Duchene was not traded yet. There are concerns. As far as RNH, he has more term in his contract and I think the Oilers are in no hurry to trade him. However, they need to make decisions on RNH or Lucic before the 2018-2019 season starts.

 

[bucks_oil]

The difference between the two is how they've scored their points. Duchene has led the Avs in scoring 4 times. He has 5 20+ goal seasons, including his 30 goal season. He also has 2 40+ assist seasons.

Looking at RNH, he's never led the team in scoring, has only scored 20 goals once, and has never had 40 assists in a season.

So, if you want to blame RNH's low totals on the fact that he's only managed to stay healthy enough to play in 71 games per 82 game season, go for it. I'll take the guy who plays in more games, scores more points, and helps his team more.

That's all fair, and you are right... in the years that RNH would have been the team's leading scorer (incl his rookie year), he ended up injured.

Nevertheless we are taking ~395 NHL games vs 572 NHL games and the difference is 5 points on a season... a 55 point center who is consistently praised by his coaches and a 60 point center (or some years 50 and some years 70) with consistency issues (independent of role).

So you can choose the more variable guy if you want... I'll choose the consistent guy who doesn't complain. Oilers need leadership, not individuals and I'm pretty certain RNH is the one still here because of mgmt's views on his professionalism and maturity.

 

[bucks_oil]

55-60 points over a season can translate to more wins. Now a minimal difference in wins decides which team makes the playoffs & which watches them on TV.
As to "whispers" about Oilers players that were a big help in the run to the bottom fans noticed that when officially eliminated (Feb. or March) the players on Edmonton took heart as they knew they'd be facing backup goalies on teams putting in minimal effort to beat the Oilers. Suddenly alive those players would score in meaningless games to try to prove they were indeed worth something.

What?!?

This makes no sense.

First it doesn't pass with the fact that in many of those seasons, our relative position in the standings was still FALLING after being officially eliminated.

Second... since you seem to buy the 'deliberately tanking' narrative. Why would our players suddenly wake up when eliminated? Don't you know that's when the tanking gets real?... You know, the difference between drafting 4th overall and 1st overall?

 

[ManofSteel55]

As a player, I'd probably rank Duchene slightly over RNH at this point simply because I think there is a bigger edge in Duchene's goal scoring ability over Nuge's than the positives that Nuge has shown to have over Duchene.

In terms of trade value, I think Sakic has played the situation horribly and Duchene's value is at an all time low, whereas the Oilers have made it pretty clear that RNH isn't on the block right now. I think it would cost more to get Nuge than what Duchene will go for (if he goes) right now. Therefore, in terms of trade value, I'd say Nuge > Duchene.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

That's all fair, and you are right... in the years that RNH would have been the team's leading scorer (incl his rookie year), he ended up injured.

Nevertheless we are taking ~395 NHL games vs 572 NHL games and the difference is 5 points on a season... a 55 point center who is consistently praised by his coaches and a 60 point center (or some years 50 and some years 70) with consistency issues (independent of role).

So you can choose the more variable guy if you want... I'll choose the consistent guy who doesn't complain. Oilers need leadership, not individuals and I'm pretty certain RNH is the one still here because of mgmt's views on his professionalism and maturity.

RNH's rookie season, he was third on the team in PPG, behind Hall at 0.87 and Eberle at 0.97. There's nothing to suggest that he would have passed either of them, had they all stayed healthy. The highest he's ever finished on the team in terms of PPG is 2nd. So, you can't really say that he would have ever led his team in scoring.

And, the only 2 years that Duchene hasn't scored 55+ were his third season, when he struggled with 2 different leg injuries but still tried to play, and last year, when the team was a dumpster fire. The rest of his career, he's scored 55+ every year and averaged 62 points. Claiming he's a 50 point guy some years is either willful ignorance of the facts, or a thinly veiled attempt to devalue him to try to make RNH look better in comparison.

I also don't necessarily believe that RNH was kept because of his professionalism and maturity. I think that if RNH could have returned someone like Larsson, the Oilers would have sent him packing and kept the better player in Hall.

 

[ManofSteel55]

RNH's rookie season, he was third on the team in PPG, behind Hall at 0.87 and Eberle at 0.97. There's nothing to suggest that he would have passed either of them, had they all stayed healthy. The highest he's ever finished on the team in terms of PPG is 2nd. So, you can't really say that he would have ever led his team in scoring.

And, the only 2 years that Duchene hasn't scored 55+ were his third season, when he struggled with 2 different leg injuries but still tried to play, and last year, when the team was a dumpster fire. The rest of his career, he's scored 55+ every year and averaged 62 points. Claiming he's a 50 point guy some years is either willful ignorance of the facts, or a thinly veiled attempt to devalue him to try to make RNH look better in comparison.

I also don't necessarily believe that RNH was kept because of his professionalism and maturity. I think that if RNH could have returned someone like Larsson, the Oilers would have sent him packing and kept the better player in Hall.

I don't think you are correct here actually. The writing was on the wall for Taylor Hall the moment that we drafted McDavid. Hall was the locker room leader appointed by Lowe/MacT and company. Our new management team wanted McDavid as the leader going forward and if we had Hall that may not have happened as planned, as Hall is the larger personality. There was significant chance of splitting the locker room.

I think the plan from the day we won that McDavid lottery was to use Hall or Eberle to get a d-man and the team would roll with McDavid and Nuge as the top 2 centers. Eberle couldn't return the player we wanted, so it ended up being Hall.

You also have to consider Lucic in this discussion, because once Chiarelli knew we had a good shot at getting Lucic, it was much, much easier to move on from Hall. I don't think he had any intention of having 12 million committed to two left wingers when we also had McDavid, Nuge, and at the time, Eberle's salaries to worry about, and we needed Lucic's veteran leadership and toughness more than Hall's skill at that point.

Draisaitl's emergence might have put a countdown on Nuge's time with the Oilers, but that's another discussion altogether.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I don't think you are correct here actually. The writing was on the wall for Taylor Hall the moment that we drafted McDavid. Hall was the locker room leader appointed by Lowe/MacT and company. Our new management team wanted McDavid as the leader going forward and if we had Hall that may not have happened as planned, as Hall is the larger personality. There was significant chance of splitting the locker room.

I think the plan from the day we won that McDavid lottery was to use Hall or Eberle to get a d-man and the team would roll with McDavid and Nuge as the top 2 centers. Eberle couldn't return the player we wanted, so it ended up being Hall.

You also have to consider Lucic in this discussion, because once Chiarelli knew we had a good shot at getting Lucic, it was much, much easier to move on from Hall. I don't think he had any intention of having 12 million committed to two left wingers when we also had McDavid, Nuge, and at the time, Eberle's salaries to worry about, and we needed Lucic's veteran leadership and toughness more than Hall's skill at that point.

Draisaitl's emergence might have put a countdown on Nuge's time with the Oilers, but that's another discussion altogether.

Yes, McDavid made Hall expendable. Yes, the Oilers were able to replace Hall with Lucic 2 days after he was traded. Those factors definitely made it possible for the Oilers to pay the asking price for Larsson, which was obviously Hall.

But, do you honestly think that if the Devils were willing to give up Larsson for RNH, the Oilers wouldn't have made that trade, and would have insisted that it be Hall instead of RNH? Remember that the trade happened after Draisaitl had scored 51 points in 72 games as a 20 year old, giving the Oilers a pretty good backup plan at 2C behind McDavid.

 

[TheTakedown]

I think Duchene has more upside but they are close today in value on the trade market. And that trade market value is not what Sakic or the rumors have indicated. Think about the centers traded over the last few years. Carter, Richards, Seguin, ROR, RyJo, Spezza, Brassard, etc and then what the return was. Besides Brassard, is Duchene or RNH better than any of those guys at the time they were traded?

Teams are a bit worried about giving full value or more for Duchene or RNH. They are young players with decline in stats. They could work out like Seguin did or they could turn into Richards too. This is why Duchene was not traded yet. There are concerns. As far as RNH, he has more term in his contract and I think the Oilers are in no hurry to trade him. However, they need to make decisions on RNH or Lucic before the 2018-2019 season starts.

Fantastic post

 

[TheTakedown]

As a player, I'd probably rank Duchene slightly over RNH at this point simply because I think there is a bigger edge in Duchene's goal scoring ability over Nuge's than the positives that Nuge has shown to have over Duchene.

In terms of trade value, I think Sakic has played the situation horribly and Duchene's value is at an all time low, whereas the Oilers have made it pretty clear that RNH isn't on the block right now. I think it would cost more to get Nuge than what Duchene will go for (if he goes) right now. Therefore, in terms of trade value, I'd say Nuge > Duchene.

Meanwhile, back in reality-land: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...gearing-up-to-sell-low-on-ryan-nugent-hopkins

They're prepared to sell low, they are getting bent over a barrel known as the salary cap. Their only hope is to convert RNH to a winger and then play him in a top 6 winger role. Putting him with McDavid over Maroon would mitigate the $6M they are paying him per year

 

[Mr Positive]

Meanwhile, back in reality-land: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...gearing-up-to-sell-low-on-ryan-nugent-hopkins

They're prepared to sell low, they are getting bent over a barrel known as the salary cap. Their only hope is to convert RNH to a winger and then play him in a top 6 winger role. Putting him with McDavid over Maroon would mitigate the $6M they are paying him per year

I don't think that RNH makes himself worthwhile by inflating his points playing next to McDavid. RNH makes himself worthwhile by centering his own line and excelling. If this means that we might have to sell low on RNH next summer, then oh well. That's how it has to be.

We're not going to make team decisions just to pump up RNH's value either. It's not like McLellan will let Chiarelli determine the depth charts. Besides, other GMs will notice if RNH got his points by playing next to McDavid. We also won't aim to have 6 million dollar wingers next to McDavid when a 3-4 million dollar winger will do, especially with Lucic on the team and Puljujarvi on the way.

This is all on RNH

Also btw, to the thread, Duchene is better than RNH. Duchene is dragged down by the team he's on, and might be fighting a confidence issue because of it. He has great offensive talent, and that's always more valuable that RNH's potential to be a great two-way center.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Yes, McDavid made Hall expendable. Yes, the Oilers were able to replace Hall with Lucic 2 days after he was traded. Those factors definitely made it possible for the Oilers to pay the asking price for Larsson, which was obviously Hall.

But, do you honestly think that if the Devils were willing to give up Larsson for RNH, the Oilers wouldn't have made that trade, and would have insisted that it be Hall instead of RNH? Remember that the trade happened after Draisaitl had scored 51 points in 72 games as a 20 year old, giving the Oilers a pretty good backup plan at 2C behind McDavid.

Yes I do. I think Chiarelli was trying to get that deal done with Eberle, and Hall was his number 2 option, ahead of Nuge. Chiarelli and McLellan both have histories of building teams that are filled with guys capable of playing center or wing. Hall failed miserably at playing center when we tried it (briefly). It is also well noted that Nugent-Hopkins adapted much quicker to playing the type of game that management wanted, and Hall and Eberle were slower to adapt - meaning that they really didn't. Knowing this, and seeing the risk of a leadership struggle in the locker room between Hall and McDavid, I do believe that Hall was actively being shopped for a d-man, and Nugent-Hopkins was not, even though Hall was the more "valuable" player at the time.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Meanwhile, back in reality-land: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...gearing-up-to-sell-low-on-ryan-nugent-hopkins

They're prepared to sell low, they are getting bent over a barrel known as the salary cap. Their only hope is to convert RNH to a winger and then play him in a top 6 winger role. Putting him with McDavid over Maroon would mitigate the $6M they are paying him per year

Did you even read the link that you supplied? It supports my statement firmly and suggests that the "Oilers are gonna sell RNH for cheap" opinion is one held by people who don't know how the team is operating internally.

"Nugent-Hopkins’ value was highest in 2014-15, when he was the Oil’s best forward. He hasn’t truly found his niche on the team since McDavid took over as the No. 1 centre in Edmonton. There’s a chance, though, that this will happen this year, as RNH finally looks to be in line to get some choice minutes either on the same line with McDavid or Draisaitl. Eberle had those minutes last year and did little with them. I suspect RNH will do much more, and that the final chapter of his story with the Oilers won’t be the team selling super low on him, but with him having his best year and the Oilers finding a way to keep him, even in a tight cap situation."

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Yes I do. I think Chiarelli was trying to get that deal done with Eberle, and Hall was his number 2 option, ahead of Nuge. Chiarelli and McLellan both have histories of building teams that are filled with guys capable of playing center or wing. Hall failed miserably at playing center when we tried it (briefly). It is also well noted that Nugent-Hopkins adapted much quicker to playing the type of game that management wanted, and Hall and Eberle were slower to adapt - meaning that they really didn't. Knowing this, and seeing the risk of a leadership struggle in the locker room between Hall and McDavid, I do believe that Hall was actively being shopped for a d-man, and Nugent-Hopkins was not, even though Hall was the more "valuable" player at the time.

And, I think Chiarelli knew that RNH wasn't going to get the type of D the team needed, so he was using his more valuable but still expendable pieces to try to fix the D. There's no reason to believe Chia would have refused a massive discount on Larsson, simply because he wasn't ballsy enough to try to get a massive discount from the start.

I also think this narrative that keeping Hall would have somehow prevented McDavid from being the team leader is pretty funny. You might as well just admit that McDavid is a weak team leader, if you guys had to trade Hall to ensure that he could actually lead.

 

[ManofSteel55]

And, I think Chiarelli knew that RNH wasn't going to get the type of D the team needed, so he was using his more valuable but still expendable pieces to try to fix the D. There's no reason to believe Chia would have refused a massive discount on Larsson, simply because he wasn't ballsy enough to try to get a massive discount from the start.

I also think this narrative that keeping Hall would have somehow prevented McDavid from being the team leader is pretty funny. You might as well just admit that McDavid is a weak team leader, if you guys had to trade Hall to ensure that he could actually lead.

I think you don't know what you are talking about in regards to the way Chiarelli builds teams. It is obvious that Chiarelli like to build his forward core from the center position outwards, with players who are versatile and can play in multiple situations. RNH can play in any situation. Hall can play powerplay and in the offensive zone 5 on 5. Chiarelli has never been shy of losing in perceived value to get what the team needed. Even if Hall had a higher perceived value, he was easier to replace than RNH would have been, and we had the replacement right there. Nuge had more qualities than Hall did that the team wanted going forward both on and off the ice. You might be right though, the Devils might not have even wanted Nuge, and I think I recall their GM saying that Hall was the only piece that they would have wanted for Larsson. That doesn't mean that Chiarelli was open to trading Nuge though. There are literally no confirmed sources of Nuge ever being on the block for a defenseman.

I never said that Hall staying would have prevented McDavid becoming the leader. I said it could have split the locker room, meaning that I don't think Hall would have willingly given up that role to McDavid. Hall wanted the attention. He wanted to be the leader. He said it dozens of times. Management didn't want him to be. It would have ended badly sooner or later and they knew they had to move him. That says nothing about McDavid's character and more of what they thought of Hall's.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Meanwhile, back in reality-land: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...gearing-up-to-sell-low-on-ryan-nugent-hopkins

They're prepared to sell low, they are getting bent over a barrel known as the salary cap. Their only hope is to convert RNH to a winger and then play him in a top 6 winger role. Putting him with McDavid over Maroon would mitigate the $6M they are paying him per year

That article doesn't say what you think it does. It's the opinion of one no-name Yahoo blogger that the Oilers are going to sell low on RNH, not anyone in any way connected to the team.

 

[avsfan09]

I think Duchene has more upside but they are close today in value on the trade market. And that trade market value is not what Sakic or the rumors have indicated. Think about the centers traded over the last few years. Carter, Richards, Seguin, ROR, RyJo, Spezza, Brassard, etc and then what the return was. Besides Brassard, is Duchene or RNH better than any of those guys at the time they were traded?

Teams are a bit worried about giving full value or more for Duchene or RNH. They are young players with decline in stats. They could work out like Seguin did or they could turn into Richards too. This is why Duchene was not traded yet. There are concerns. As far as RNH, he has more term in his contract and I think the Oilers are in no hurry to trade him. However, they need to make decisions on RNH or Lucic before the 2018-2019 season starts.

He's has more value than UFA O'rielly did. He also has more value than Seguin at the time who wasn't proven yet. Spezza was olderror at the time and I believeven his contract situation worse (don't want to look up) Johansen got an enormously talented Dman who was very likely to develop into a 1D (also young). Let's not act like these are goodds examples that help prove your point.

We know Duchene received an offer of Harmonic and a first. So he does hold good value. The problem is Sakic maybe is being too stubborn about the perfect return and probably won't get it. He needs to get adequate value in futures and stop worrying about finding proven players in the deal if this is going to happen IMO.

 

[Homesick]

Meanwhile, back in reality-land: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...gearing-up-to-sell-low-on-ryan-nugent-hopkins

They're prepared to sell low, they are getting bent over a barrel known as the salary cap. Their only hope is to convert RNH to a winger and then play him in a top 6 winger role. Putting him with McDavid over Maroon would mitigate the $6M they are paying him per year

"Justin Cuthbert of Yahoo Canada Sport" is not reality.....seriously? YAHOO?

You might want to check expedia for flights back to realityland yourself

 

[Homesick]

I don't think that RNH makes himself worthwhile by inflating his points playing next to McDavid. RNH makes himself worthwhile by centering his own line and excelling. If this means that we might have to sell low on RNH next summer, then oh well. That's how it has to be.

We're not going to make team decisions just to pump up RNH's value either. It's not like McLellan will let Chiarelli determine the depth charts. Besides, other GMs will notice if RNH got his points by playing next to McDavid. We also won't aim to have 6 million dollar wingers next to McDavid when a 3-4 million dollar winger will do, especially with Lucic on the team and Puljujarvi on the way.

This is all on RNH

Also btw, to the thread, Duchene is better than RNH. Duchene is dragged down by the team he's on, and might be fighting a confidence issue because of it. He has great offensive talent, and that's always more valuable that RNH's potential to be a great two-way center.

RNH played pretty well playing on crap teams and didn't **** and moan about it

 

[Mr Positive]

RNH played pretty well playing on crap teams and didn't **** and moan about it

they are both valuable players, and RNH hasn't had to deal with constant trade rumors that have even been commented on by the GM.

 

[THall4]

I didn't realize how bad of a year Nuge just had. I knew Duchene's was abysmal but I didn't realize Nuge's was basically as terrible



Duchene is coming off a 41 point season dude.....

Agreed McDavid and Scheifele would be considered well before him.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Duchene

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Might give the edge to Duchene but I do not think the gap is that big between them.

Colorado is in a position where they really need to try to maximize on Duchene's value and Edmonton would sell lower for the right player at the right price coming back.

 

[Mr Positive]

Might give the edge to Duchene but I do not think the gap is that big between them.

Colorado is in a position where they really need to try to maximize on Duchene's value and Edmonton would sell lower for the right player at the right price coming back.

which is a bit odd considering that you'd think the Avs are the ones that need the shakeup more than the Oilers do. The clock is also ticking on Duchene, and as he gets closer to UFA status, his value goes down.

Trading Duchene now could have a similar impact to how the Oilers traded Hall last offseason. There was risk there, and we arguably lost in trade value, but it was to fill a dire need, and maybe that's the kind of risk that the Avs need to take on now.