Value of: Duchene vs RNH

[MessierII]

Duchene is distinctly the better player no doubt about it.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

which is a bit odd considering that you'd think the Avs are the ones that need the shakeup more than the Oilers do. The clock is also ticking on Duchene, and as he gets closer to UFA status, his value goes down.

Trading Duchene now could have a similar impact to how the Oilers traded Hall last offseason. There was risk there, and we arguably lost in trade value, but it was to fill a dire need, and maybe that's the kind of risk that the Avs need to take on now.

I think the Avs would love to fill a dire need, but no one has offered a really viable solution. We've gotten a lot of promises and assurances that guys will be solutions, but no one has showed up with anything that solves the Avs problems on the left side today and 5 years from now. We don't need another Gormley, or Gelinas. We need guys with a real chance to make an impact. You guys got a 23 year old 2/3D with still some upside. We're getting offers of Murray++ and Maatta++. And, the Canes with their glut of young D aren't looking to trade anyone yet (which is understandable).

Is there another 1 for 1 deal out there? Or should the Avs dump Duchene for whatever minor upgrade they can get, even though most of the deals rely on some pretty big +s? Is getting likely a late 1st and a meh prospect enough to make up for another mediocre attempt to fill an area of dire need? If the Avs overachieve a little and miss on Dahlin and McIsaac, is it still worth it? Or is it better to give some youngsters a chance to make the team, and keep trying for the long term solution, either through trade or the draft? Most of the core is really young, there's no reason to rush it yet.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

RNH's rookie season, he was third on the team in PPG, behind Hall at 0.87 and Eberle at 0.97. There's nothing to suggest that he would have passed either of them, had they all stayed healthy. The highest he's ever finished on the team in terms of PPG is 2nd. So, you can't really say that he would have ever led his team in scoring.

And, the only 2 years that Duchene hasn't scored 55+ were his third season, when he struggled with 2 different leg injuries but still tried to play, and last year, when the team was a dumpster fire. The rest of his career, he's scored 55+ every year and averaged 62 points. Claiming he's a 50 point guy some years is either willful ignorance of the facts, or a thinly veiled attempt to devalue him to try to make RNH look better in comparison.

I also don't necessarily believe that RNH was kept because of his professionalism and maturity. I think that if RNH could have returned someone like Larsson, the Oilers would have sent him packing and kept the better player in Hall.

RNH had an epic rookie season prior to being hurt in February. 24gp. 5-12-17 after his injury and 14-22-36 in 38 games prior to his injury.

Nuge has known nothing but dumpster fire teams except for part of the lockout season and last season.

That's assuming that there weren't other reasons to move Hall ie. culture change in the locker room.

Yes, McDavid made Hall expendable. Yes, the Oilers were able to replace Hall with Lucic 2 days after he was traded. Those factors definitely made it possible for the Oilers to pay the asking price for Larsson, which was obviously Hall.

But, do you honestly think that if the Devils were willing to give up Larsson for RNH, the Oilers wouldn't have made that trade, and would have insisted that it be Hall instead of RNH? Remember that the trade happened after Draisaitl had scored 51 points in 72 games as a 20 year old, giving the Oilers a pretty good backup plan at 2C behind McDavid.

Hall is a good player but he's overrated IMO. If he was a distraction in the room then I would wager that he would still be dealt first (see Seguin, Tyler) as proof of this from Chiarelli.

And, I think Chiarelli knew that RNH wasn't going to get the type of D the team needed, so he was using his more valuable but still expendable pieces to try to fix the D. There's no reason to believe Chia would have refused a massive discount on Larsson, simply because he wasn't ballsy enough to try to get a massive discount from the start.

I also think this narrative that keeping Hall would have somehow prevented McDavid from being the team leader is pretty funny. You might as well just admit that McDavid is a weak team leader, if you guys had to trade Hall to ensure that he could actually lead.

We took a guy that would pout when the going got tough towards the end of his Oilers career and replaced him with a leader in Lucic. There's more to that trade than meets the eye. Even had we moved RNH for Larsson I'm not sure if Hall would've been here for the long haul.

 

[zar]

I feel Duchene is the better player but (yes but) if both RNH and Duchene play to where they should, RNH 50-60 points and Duchene 60-70 points, suddenly RNH's contract is not much of a factor... in fact the length of it (the 2 extra years @ $6m) might put them on equal grounds from a trade value perspective. Assuming of course that Duchene's new contract would be $7.5m+.

Then again probably not to team who have a lot of cap space or are truly looking for a player who would be the best fit as a 1C... they would want the better player.

If a team is set and 1C and is looking for a 2C with a bit of a break from a cap perspective, RNH will be a better fit.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I think the Avs would love to fill a dire need, but no one has offered a really viable solution. We've gotten a lot of promises and assurances that guys will be solutions, but no one has showed up with anything that solves the Avs problems on the left side today and 5 years from now. We don't need another Gormley, or Gelinas. We need guys with a real chance to make an impact. You guys got a 23 year old 2/3D with still some upside. We're getting offers of Murray++ and Maatta++. And, the Canes with their glut of young D aren't looking to trade anyone yet (which is understandable).

Is there another 1 for 1 deal out there? Or should the Avs dump Duchene for whatever minor upgrade they can get, even though most of the deals rely on some pretty big +s? Is getting likely a late 1st and a meh prospect enough to make up for another mediocre attempt to fill an area of dire need? If the Avs overachieve a little and miss on Dahlin and McIsaac, is it still worth it? Or is it better to give some youngsters a chance to make the team, and keep trying for the long term solution, either through trade or the draft? Most of the core is really young, there's no reason to rush it yet.

Avs were asking way too much to begin with.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Avs were asking way too much to begin with.

Have you ever asked someone how much they would want for something that they really have no interest in selling and would prefer to keep? The asking price is usually well above market value, and they usually don't budge from that price.

That, combined with Sakic's comments from around the TDL, are a pretty good indication that Sakic was never really trying to move Duchene for the best return he could get, even if he is open to moving Duchene for the right return.

 

[Mr Positive]

I think the Avs would love to fill a dire need, but no one has offered a really viable solution. We've gotten a lot of promises and assurances that guys will be solutions, but no one has showed up with anything that solves the Avs problems on the left side today and 5 years from now. We don't need another Gormley, or Gelinas. We need guys with a real chance to make an impact. You guys got a 23 year old 2/3D with still some upside. We're getting offers of Murray++ and Maatta++. And, the Canes with their glut of young D aren't looking to trade anyone yet (which is understandable).

Is there another 1 for 1 deal out there? Or should the Avs dump Duchene for whatever minor upgrade they can get, even though most of the deals rely on some pretty big +s? Is getting likely a late 1st and a meh prospect enough to make up for another mediocre attempt to fill an area of dire need? If the Avs overachieve a little and miss on Dahlin and McIsaac, is it still worth it? Or is it better to give some youngsters a chance to make the team, and keep trying for the long term solution, either through trade or the draft? Most of the core is really young, there's no reason to rush it yet.

but at the time of the Hall trade, it was widely viewed as a betrayal to the team because of the lost value. Many Oiler fans thought we would get another 1st rounder or someone like Zacha in addition. Except, maybe if Chiarelli insisted on that extra piece or two to even out the value, the trade doesn't get made. It really seems to me like Sakic wants to avoid that risk and that intense criticism for not getting enough for Duchene. He is insisting on that extra piece or two, and the other team just backs out of it. Of course, I could be wrong on this, and we can't know what's going on behind the scenes, but it just really seems that way.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

but at the time of the Hall trade, it was widely viewed as a betrayal to the team because of the lost value. Many Oiler fans thought we would get another 1st rounder or someone like Zacha in addition. Except, maybe if Chiarelli insisted on that extra piece or two to even out the value, the trade doesn't get made. It really seems to me like Sakic wants to avoid that risk and that intense criticism for not getting enough for Duchene. He is insisting on that extra piece or two, and the other team just backs out of it. Of course, I could be wrong on this, and we can't know what's going on behind the scenes, but it just really seems that way.

Imagine that, instead of Larsson, the Devils were only willing to give up Severson++ for Hall. Severson is still better than what the Oilers had, but he's definitely a step or two down in talent and potential from Larsson. Imagine if that ++ was a meh prospect and a likely late 1st, and not someone like Zacha, but the overall value of the trade was similar to Larsson's value. Is that package worth giving up Hall? Or do you think that you could probably get someone like Severson without giving up Hall?

That's essentially the issue facing Sakic and the Avs. The packages that are being offered don't have a LHD in them that really justifies moving Duchene. That's not to suggest that guys like Murray or Maatta wouldn't improve the Avs defense, they just aren't worth giving up Duchene, unless there is another significant piece coming with them. And, no, meh prospects and late 1sts are not the kind of significant pieces I'm talking about.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

but at the time of the Hall trade, it was widely viewed as a betrayal to the team because of the lost value. Many Oiler fans thought we would get another 1st rounder or someone like Zacha in addition. Except, maybe if Chiarelli insisted on that extra piece or two to even out the value, the trade doesn't get made. It really seems to me like Sakic wants to avoid that risk and that intense criticism for not getting enough for Duchene. He is insisting on that extra piece or two, and the other team just backs out of it. Of course, I could be wrong on this, and we can't know what's going on behind the scenes, but it just really seems that way.

Ask a Devils fan today and most of them still feel that they won the trade, but do you know what they need more than anything in the world right now?

An Adam Larsson type defenceman.

 

[tempest2i]

Duchene has more trade value than Nuge. That much should be obvious to even casual observers.

Sakic needs to put his big boy pants on and end this Duchene circus. If 30 other NHL GM's are taking advantage of your situation, you suck at your job for allowing yourself to end up in that situation.

 

[tempest2i]

Ask a Devils fan today and most of them still feel that they won the trade, but do you know what they need more than anything in the world right now?

An Adam Larsson type defenceman.

I don't think anyone is claiming that the Devils didn't lose a good player. They were given a opportunity to acquire a premier skilled forward and they took it. I don't blame them for doing so, and I suspect they would still make the trade today knowing how last season turned out.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Duchene has more trade value than Nuge. That much should be obvious to even casual observers.

Sakic needs to put his big boy pants on and end this Duchene circus. If 30 other NHL GM's are taking advantage of your situation, you suck at your job for allowing yourself to end up in that situation.

How should he end the circus? Should he publicly state that he's not really trying to trade Duchene, but is willing to listen to any offer that might make the team better? Should he say that he's not looking to make a trade just to make a trade? Why would the media listen to him now, if they ignored him when he said these things back in February?

Or are you suggesting that he let 1 GM take advantage of him, by trading Duchene for pieces that don't really address the Avs needs?

 

[tempest2i]

How should he end the circus? Should he publicly state that he's not really trying to trade Duchene, but is willing to listen to any offer that might make the team better? Should he say that he's not looking to make a trade just to make a trade? Why would the media listen to him now, if they ignored him when he said these things back in February?

Or are you suggesting that he let 1 GM take advantage of him, by trading Duchene for pieces that don't really address the Avs needs?

I'm suggesting that multiple GM's have already taken advantage of him. They have exposed him as a weak GM without control over his team. As such, it would be in his best interests to get this trade done and move on as soon as possible. The only thing worse than a disgruntled player is a dithering GM that exasperates the situation.

IMO, Sakic should stop talking publicly about Duchene entirely. In fact, I'd go as far as to say Sakic should have never been publicly taking about Duchene. A simple no comment until this charade is finally over would do him wonders.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I'm suggesting that multiple GM's have already taken advantage of him. They have exposed him as a weak GM without control over his team. As such, it would be in his best interests to get this trade done and move on as soon as possible. The only thing worse than a disgruntled player is a dithering GM that exasperates the situation.

IMO, Sakic should stop talking publicly about Duchene entirely. In fact, I'd go as far as to say Sakic should have never been publicly taking about Duchene. A simple no comment until this charade is finally over would do him wonders.

So, he should reassert his control over the team by letting other GMs goad him into trading one of his best players, regardless of whether the return he can get for him actually makes the team better? I'm sure that would show those other GMs that they can't take advantage of him.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Have you ever asked someone how much they would want for something that they really have no interest in selling and would prefer to keep? The asking price is usually well above market value, and they usually don't budge from that price.

That, combined with Sakic's comments from around the TDL, are a pretty good indication that Sakic was never really trying to move Duchene for the best return he could get, even if he is open to moving Duchene for the right return.

So you agree then. Cool

 

[tempest2i]

So, he should reassert his control over the team by letting other GMs goad him into trading one of his best players, regardless of whether the return he can get for him actually makes the team better? I'm sure that would show those other GMs that they can't take advantage of him.

All the other GM's already know they can take advantage of him. The horses are gone, they're not coming back. Close the barn door, learn from this and move on with your life.

The other option is waiting around hoping for someone to come and bail him out.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

All the other GM's already know they can take advantage of him. The horses are gone, they're not coming back. Close the barn door, learn from this and move on with your life.

The other option is waiting around hoping for someone to come and bail him out.

Yeah, I don't really follow your "logic" here. Are you suggesting that Garth Snow thinks he can take advantage of Sakic, because he wasn't able to bully him through the press and ended up having to trade Hamonic for picks? Or is it Bergevin who took advantage of him, by trading Sergachev for a RW, instead of getting his team the 1C they so desperately need? I really need some specifics about which GMs took advantage of him, and what tangible return they got as a result. Inane claims without a shred of evidence to support them don't really convince me of anything.

And who exactly are the horses in your metaphor here? Is it Duchene? Is it all the crappy offers that didn't fit the Avs needs? Is it the 12 players who played 27 games for the Avs last season, but are being replaced for this season?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

So you agree then. Cool

Yes, we apparently agree that Duchene was never really "on the market", but was potentially available for the right return, but that return hasn't materialized yet, so he's not likely going to get traded.

 

[tempest2i]

Yeah, I don't really follow your "logic" here. Are you suggesting that Garth Snow thinks he can take advantage of Sakic, because he wasn't able to bully him through the press and ended up having to trade Hamonic for picks? Or is it Bergevin who took advantage of him, by trading Sergachev for a RW, instead of getting his team the 1C they so desperately need? I really need some specifics about which GMs took advantage of him, and what tangible return they got as a result. Inane claims without a shred of evidence to support them don't really convince me of anything.

And who exactly are the horses in your metaphor here? Is it Duchene? Is it all the crappy offers that didn't fit the Avs needs? Is it the 12 players who played 27 games for the Avs last season, but are being replaced for this season?

To me, Sakic looks like he has lost control of his team. He is the captain of a rudderless ship, at the mercy of the wind or currents to take him where he needs to go.

He's Steve Tambellini with a Hall of Fame playing career on his resume.

(p.s. the horses in that analogy would be his reputation as a good general manager)

 

[CaptainCrunch67]

Duchene has a more value in trade talks.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

To me, Sakic looks like he has lost control of his team. He is the captain of a rudderless ship, at the mercy of the wind or currents to take him where he needs to go.

He's Steve Tambellini with a Hall of Fame playing career on his resume.

(p.s. the horses in that analogy would be his reputation as a good general manager)

And to me, Sakic looks like he's focused on building the team primarily through the draft, and has been filling the roster with whatever warm bodies he can find until his young guys are ready. And, despite the way the placeholders played, and how that negatively impacted the team as a whole, I saw glimpses of the team Sakic has been trying to build. Rantanen looked like a future stud. Zadorov looked like a future top 4D, with potential upside beyond that. Andrighetto looked great in his short time with Rantanen and MacKinnon. Compher and Jost both showed promise, even if they are likely still a year or two away from being ready for prime time. If these guys are indicative of Sakic's plan for the team, the future looks bright, despite the storm we just went through.

 

[Patagonia]

To me, Sakic looks like he has lost control of his team. He is the captain of a rudderless ship, at the mercy of the wind or currents to take him where he needs to go.

He's Steve Tambellini with a Hall of Fame playing career on his resume.

(p.s. the horses in that analogy would be his reputation as a good general manager)

I'm not a fan of Sakic and believe Duchene should have been traded, although, he's inherited multiple problems. Aging team, that needed leadership and he made some bad trades/UFA that maxed their cap. Farm system which was considered the worst in the league, they're likely in the middle of the league with some savvy draft picks, college signings and trades. Cap mgmt, he jettison bad contracts and now has $15-$20M available. Coaching with Roy and Bednar needs to improve, partial blame as he hired them. Youth movement, majority of the core players are under 25 and they're working on getting even younger.

Not sure if you can consider losing the team, but more cautious to rebuild properly.