Rumor: Duchene for...? Part III

[Avs71]

Does trading Duchene for a young defenceman with potential move this team forward?

I don't know what needs to be done, but trading the best players to create a new rebuild seems like it will just result in another failed rebuild.

The Avs failed the rebuild with Stastny as the main piece. They let him walk because they had Duchene and MacKinnon. Now three years later, the Avs have gone no where, and could really use Stastny.

The Avs draft Nolan Patrick and build around him and MacKinnon. They move Duchene because now they're building around MacKinnon and Patrick. Three years later, MacKinnon is mid 20s, the Avs have gone no where...

 

[tigervixxxen]

Not letting guys walk and deciding what to do with them before they head into their final year would be a good start.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Not letting guys walk and deciding what to do with them before they head into their final year would be a good start.

Yea, that'd be nice. One of the major downsides of our management the last few years is that they are very reactive, rather than being proactive. It's like they expect things to just work out.

 

[Foppa]

The bare minimum should be:

Step A) Realize that trying to scrape into the playoffs by holding onto pending free agents and trying to deal assets (picks and prospects) for rentals is extremely counter-productive for the franchise at this point.

Step B) Squeezing additional assets out of those pending free agents by the trade deadline is desirable.

Then...

Step C) No ROR for magic beans type deals. I still believe in Zadorov's upside but let's face it - another deal like that involving a guy like Matty is unthinkable and probably not sell-able to the general ticket buying public. If core players go, we have to get core players back.

Step D) Have your staff and advanced stats people really identify the overall team issues and make addressing those concerns top of the list. Not vague crap like "we need more leadership" or "we have to get more goals from our wingers". Really zone in on the fundamental flaws in the construction of this team and target players who excel at those things. I think smart people in this forum are already all over what we don't do well.

Here's the thing...I cannot stand the idea, from an value standpoint of dealing Duchene somewhere and ending up with a guy like RNH. I think Matty is the superior hockey player and the bigger star. But if getting RNH and playing him with MacKinnon unlocks Nate's upside a bit more because of how RNH plays and thinks the game and you can end up with additional assets or simultaneously upgrade another area - you have to think about that. You have to be willing to absorb the public outcry based on perception that say the Oilers fans went through with Hall for Larsson if you know that a deal like that signals a change in philosophy that actually addresses fundamental problems.

 

[henchman21]

If core players go, we have to get core players back.

Those types of deals are not that common.... yeah we had two this summer, but those big swaps like that just take the exact right situations to pull off. If Dutchy is traded it will be for a lesser roster player and a really good prospect or a couple of good ones.

IMO the Avs really need to decide what team they want to try to be and figure out how to get there from here. I don't think they'd follow my preferred path, but they need to find one and really focus on it. And not just for few years, but for 5-6+ years. They have been too all over the place for the past decade.

 

[Foppa]

Those types of deals are not that common.... yeah we had two this summer, but those big swaps like that just take the exact right situations to pull off. If Dutchy is traded it will be for a lesser roster player and a really good prospect or a couple of good ones.

IMO the Avs really need to decide what team they want to try to be and figure out how to get there from here. I don't think they'd follow my preferred path, but they need to find one and really focus on it. And not just for few years, but for 5-6+ years. They have been too all over the place for the past decade.

I just don't know that people are going to be able to stomach Matty leaving for another ROR-type return. I'm not saying personally that this would be bad but I mean...dismantling a core which is not itself old or aging for future parts is depressing and if at the time of a Duchene-type of deal, Zadorov is still struggling to adjust, Greg is still looking like a disinterested passenger and Compher is still finding his way in the AHL - that doesn't endear much trust in the FO to make a good value trade.

 

[tigervixxxen]

ROR was great trade value. Has to do with the timing too, wait until Dutch is in his final year and that's what you are going to get. A nice 2 player return is probably the best way to get talent and value back into the org, it's not a pile of draft picks.

 

[Foppa]

I think saying the ROR deal was "great" value is a little hyperbolic but that's just my opinion. Solid to good considering the circumstances? Yeah probably. But we gave up a stud who possesses all the qualities we now lack. Yes, yes - there was a situation that was likely to never resolve in that case, i get it.

But that just means the bar for dealing Duchene or Barrie or EJ or whomever better be very, very high in terms of the type of player or prospect we get back as a centerpiece if it's not a swap of already legit core pieces.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I don't think the difference between solid and great equals hyperbole.

 

[Avs71]

I will say, it is pretty encouraging the Avs are sitting on Compher, Greer, and Jost.

Greer has shown he will probably be at least a third liner in the NHL.

Jost is looking like he could be another Rantanen level pick.

And Compher is 21 years old and almost a point per game in the AHL.

Then you add in Bigras, and the Avs could be adding 4 players under the age of 22 who could be making an impact next season.

Rantanen-MacKinnon-Landeskog
Jost-Duchene-________
Greer-Compher-Comeau
Martinsen-_________-__________

Zadorov-EJ
Bigras-Barrie

Plus adding another top-10 pick at either forward or defence.

Would at least be a harder working team than what we are forced to watch now.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

But two more years of Barrie playing on this team could further lower his value.

If I knew all the answers I'm sure I would be working in the NHL but at this point, I honestly believe this core will never contend. I'd rather start selling while their values are still relatively high.

 

[PAZ]

Barrie is easily worth more than a mid 1st + prospect right now. He's playing poorly right now, but that doesn't negate the past 3 seasons.

He's 25, signed for 4 more years at a reasonable cap hit while putting up ~50 points the past few years. A 1st + prospect is equal to Barrie's value as a rental, unless that prospect is someone like Duclair.

This would be my plan:

- Trade off any expendable assets, along with 1 of Picks of Varly (I would prefer Picks)
- Be open to trades on the core, but unless you can get full value for them, hold onto them for now
- Try and sign some key young free agents, as long as it's not on a stupid contract
- Hope that Compher/Jost/etc. are ready to make an impact on the big club.
- If we still have the same results ~20 games into next season, then I think it's time to start trading Barrie/Duchene.

I don't think this core will ever be able to compete for the cup, but if they can start playing better it's easier to make hockey trades or getting better value. If they don't, well it won't be hard to get a mid 1st + B prospect.

 

[Ivan13]

If we dismantle the team now, we won't be any good next season as well.

 

[Tweaky]

How about Barrie to EDM for 2017 1st and 2018 1st?

Asking your opinions, not proposing or wishing, or expecting anyone to consider it at all realistically.

 

[CobraAcesS]

How about Barrie to EDM for 2017 1st and 2018 1st?

Asking your opinions, not proposing or wishing, or expecting anyone to consider it at all realistically.

Sure, but you better also be moving Varlamov and Duchene as well.

We can't really afford to half ass it if they are choosing to move one of the over 23 core players for purely futures.


Edit ; I personally think we could get a bit better value than that though.

 

[Tweaky]

Sure, but you better also be moving Varlamov and Duchene as well.

We can't really afford to half ass it if they are choosing to move one of the over 23 core players for purely futures.

I am of the opinion that Varly is leaving this year anyway. Duchene....dunno. If it were a full on tank+rebuild, of course. But we also still have to have an NHL team in the interim.

 

[ABasin]

ROR was great trade value. Has to do with the timing too, wait until Dutch is in his final year and that's what you are going to get. A nice 2 player return is probably the best way to get talent and value back into the org, it's not a pile of draft picks.

I think we need to wait and see before calling the ROR trade return "great". I think they did the best they could under the circumstances, but let's not forget that the players the Avs got back for a legitimate top 6 NHL center are all question marks to some extent. Two are in the AHL and two are struggling in the NHL.

Also, the 2nd player the Avs tossed into that ROR deal - McGinn - has scored more goals since that trade than any Avs player has, except Duchene.

All of that said, I never expected the Avs to "win" the ROR trade. I believe that most times, when a team trades a young star player for a prospects/picks, the team getting the young star player wins the trade.



Edit: MacKinnon and McGinn have scored the same number of goals since the trade.

 

[agentblack]

How about Barrie to EDM for 2017 1st and 2018 1st?

Asking your opinions, not proposing or wishing, or expecting anyone to consider it at all realistically.

Its ok i guess. With the way the league standings fluctuate from year to year EDM could wind up...anywhere it seems. But id still like to rake them over the coals cause adding Barrie means more to them and the team they are trying to build.
Like they need to add Pulju more

 

[CobraAcesS]

I think we need to wait and see before calling the ROR trade return "great". I think they did the best they could under the circumstances, but let's not forget that the players the Avs got back for a legitimate top 6 NHL center are all question marks to some extent. Two are in the AHL and two are struggling in the NHL.

Also, the 2nd player the Avs tossed into that ROR deal - McGinn - has scored more goals since that trade than any Avs player has, except Duchene.

All of that said, I never expected the Avs to "win" the ROR trade. I believe that most times, when a team trades a young star player for a prospects/picks, the team getting the young star player wins the trade.



Edit: MacKinnon and McGinn have scored the same number of goals since the trade.

McGinn was a pending UFA, and we could have had him back that same off-season. They were worried about his injury issues, and Sakic has said as much. There isn't really value there that you can draw from to evaluate the trade.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Its ok i guess. With the way the league standings fluctuate from year to year EDM could wind up...anywhere it seems. But id still like to rake them over the coals cause adding Barrie means more to them and the team they are trying to build.
Like they need to add Pulju more

That's what I was thinking, him and the 2018 1st

 

[agentblack]

That's what I was thinking, him and the 2018 1st

I mean at first it seems like a non starter from EDM fans but its not like Pulju has been lighting it up,
dude has 7 pts. And the first could end up being in the teems to twenties.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I mean at first it seems like a non starter from EDM fans but its not like Pulju has been lighting it up,
dude has 7 pts. And the first could end up being in the teems to twenties.

No I agree with you, and it should help that even with Barrie not playing in top form right now hes still putting up points. It's not like hes gone completely off the map offensively.

Not that I'm taking it to the main board, but I think it's a realistic ask personally. Especially with Sakic wanting Leon in the off-season.

 

[ABasin]

McGinn was a pending UFA, and we could have had him back that same off-season. They were worried about his injury issues, and Sakic has said as much. There isn't really value there that you can draw from to evaluate the trade.

I understand the rationale.

However, value is value. McGinn is a 20 goal scorer, and that value needs to be added to ROR's when comparing to the return and/or assessing the trade.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I understand the rationale.

However, value is value. McGinn is a 20 goal scorer, and that value needs to be added to ROR's when comparing to the return and/or assessing the trade.

No not really it does not. He was a pending UFA third line/tweener with a specific injury history with his back. He had very little to no value at the time.

 

[InjuredChoker]

No not really it does not. He was a pending UFA third line/tweener with a specific injury history with his back. He had very little to no value at the time.

i think ginner and grigs were basically just throw-ins in that trade. neither team had those guys in their respective plans.