Rumor: Duchene for...? Part III

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

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Previous thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2149047

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[henchman21]

Could they have though?

2015 has to be Rants.

2014 there's no way we are going to be able to trade up to get Ekblad, no one else has really done all that much as a defencemen.

2013 if you take Jones instead of MacK then we have a better defense and our offense is in the gutter.

2012 don't have a pick

2011 is really the only one where you could say they could've either moved up, or made a better pick with the 11th.

2010 they could have moved up to take Fowler I guess...but look at the dmen that were picked in the first...it's not pretty.

2009 they could've picked OEL instead of Dutch, though that would've been a reach at the time. I'm pretty sure TBay wasn't going to look into moving that 2nd after they had drafted Stamkos before. It was their perfect opportunity to pair Stamkos with a potential top-pairing Dman.

Yes... they could have moved up in a couple drafts:

2016 - Could have selected Chychrun
2015 - Could have moved up for Hanifin (or if they preferred Werenski)... Rants was their guy over Werenski it seems.
2014 - McKeown... he will be in Carolina's top 4 next season
2013 - Jones then just paid up to ROR running a ROR-Duchene combo (don't have the ROR trade return of Z/Grigo on the team currently)
2012 - Nothing to be done with the Varly trade
2011 - They tried at least and Landy was the right pick at #2
2010 - Not much they could do here
2009 - Don't blame them here with Duchene. Hindsight is 20/20 with OEL, but Duchene was the guy at 3.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Yes... they could have moved up in a couple drafts:

2016 - Could have selected Chychrun
2015 - Could have moved up for Hanifin (or if they preferred Werenski)... Rants was their guy over Werenski it seems.
2014 - McKeown... he will be in Carolina's top 4 next season
2013 - Jones then just paid up to ROR running a ROR-Duchene combo (don't have the ROR trade return of Z/Grigo on the team currently)
2012 - Nothing to be done with the Varly trade
2011 - They tried at least and Landy was the right pick at #2
2010 - Not much they could do here
2009 - Don't blame them here with Duchene. Hindsight is 20/20 with OEL, but Duchene was the guy at 3.

McKeown would have been a quite the reach, and is more of a hindsight call IMO. It'd be the same as saying the Avs defensive problems would be completely solved if they had just picked PK Subban in 2007, or picking Vlasic and Letang in 2005.

Honestly, if they had been able to more consistently hit on their draft picks over the last 7-8 years the Avs in general would be in a lot better position. The Avs have also had some rotten luck when it comes to draft picks. Wasn't it rumored that the Avs were interested in Tarasenko in 2010? He goes 1 pick before the Avs pick. Even with the Hishon pick, guy looked like he was developing very nicely and could've been a nice piece for the top-6 but he just gets mangled with injuries. Heck, Peter Mueller looked like a perfect fit for this team and he gets taken out.

 

[henchman21]

McKeown would have been a quite the reach, and is more of a hindsight call IMO. It'd be the same as saying the Avs defensive problems would be completely solved if they had just picked PK Subban in 2007, or picking Vlasic and Letang in 2005.

McKeown was a faller that year, and was frequently around the 25-35 range for the last half of the season... I called for him in that spot.

 

[dahrougem2]

Yes... they could have moved up in a couple drafts:

2016 - Could have selected Chychrun
2015 - Could have moved up for Hanifin (or if they preferred Werenski)... Rants was their guy over Werenski it seems.
2014 - McKeown... he will be in Carolina's top 4 next season
2013 - Jones then just paid up to ROR running a ROR-Duchene combo (don't have the ROR trade return of Z/Grigo on the team currently)
2012 - Nothing to be done with the Varly trade
2011 - They tried at least and Landy was the right pick at #2
2010 - Not much they could do here
2009 - Don't blame them here with Duchene. Hindsight is 20/20 with OEL, but Duchene was the guy at 3.

- Don't disagree regarding Chychrun
- I'm more than happy with Rantanen. I think he's going to be a star
- McKeown was selected almost 30 picks later. Can't use that as an example because then, there are countless others
- I think ROR had his sights set on leaving Colorado the instant he held out, regardless of us wanting to pay him. Though maybe ROR + Barrie/EJ gets you a real sweet package but probably unrealistic.

I just don't see where this team could have improved it's defence through the draft other than striking gold in a later round. Chychrun is great, but he's still just a rookie.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

- Don't disagree regarding Chychrun
- I'm more than happy with Rantanen. I think he's going to be a star
- McKeown was selected almost 30 picks later. Can't use that as an example because then, there are countless others
- I think ROR had his sights set on leaving Colorado the instant he held out, regardless of us wanting to pay him. Though maybe ROR + Barrie/EJ gets you a real sweet package

I'm still really happy with the Jost pick personally.

 

[Avs71]

Alzner wants 5.5-6 million... No thanks.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Alzner wants 5.5-6 million... No thanks.

I don't know, I think I'd be willing to pay that. He is about as reliable as they come, and with his style of play I don't think he'll break down any time soon.

 

[henchman21]

- McKeown was selected almost 30 picks later. Can't use that as an example because then, there are countless others

Again... I called for that for a long time. IMO he was the 3rd best D prospect in that draft (and he was #25 in TSN's final rankings... higher than Bleacks actually). McKeown just slid, he would have been picked in the area expected if the Avs picked him.

 

[JoemAvs]

McKeown dropped like a rock for some strange reason.
He was projected to go way higher IIRC.

I really wanted him. It seems like the only thing henchman and I ever agree on is when it comes to young D prospects. And I like our success rate over the last few years .

Was also a Chychrun supporter and would have easily taken him over Jost (who I still like very much but I never really believed that Chychrun deserved to fall that much).

The Avs just have made too many strategic blunders over the last decade for this to work.

I might be one of the biggest Varly supporters on here and probably might even keep him over Pickard if I would have to make the choice (would depend on the direction of our team. Might go with Pickard because of age but otherwise probably keep Varly) but I said it back then and I will say it now.

That Varlamov trade was a huge, huge mistake and it really has come back to bite us hard. That has nothing to do with Varly the player but with where the Avs were at that time.

Trading your 1st after you finished second-last the season before was always ridiculous.

The Avs could have really needed another high 1st in that defensively stacked draft.
We finished at #11. Pretty sure that without Varlagod, we would have picked in or around the top5 and could have gotten a Lindholm, Rielly or Trouba to add to this group.

We basically went for the quick-fix in the middle of a rebuild and now we are paying for it.
Varly simply masked many issues this team still had and prevented us from accumulating a few more high(er) picks and lead to too many win-now follow up moves when we really just should have kept building.


Add that we haven't hit on anyone outside of the 1st since ROR and Barrie in 2009 who is currently contributing to this roster. Bigras could be next in line but we will see and things get troubling.
Especially when 3 of your 1st rounders also did not pan out during that timeframe.

Our successrate in general for almost everything is just too low(coaches, draft, free agents, etc)
That has to change and change soon or this rebuild will never end (or start depending on how you view what we have done over the years)


EDIT:

I would gladly pay Alzner the 6M. Look at that free agency class.
This will end badly for the Avs anyways with Sakics recent free agency record and the fact that this class is just utter crap and we are desperate and have oodles of capspace.
Alzner at 6M would be a dream come true.

 

[Ivan13]

I don't know, I think I'd be willing to pay that. He is about as reliable as they come, and with his style of play I don't think he'll break down any time soon.

If we're paying EJ that, then I don't see why we wouldn't pay Alzner.

 

[henchman21]

I'd pay Alzner 5.5m quite easily. That would solidify the defense to the best it can be given the situation. Then only one of Bigras/Z have to pan out and as a #3 to round out the top 4. That should be attainable. I really doubt Alzner would sign here though.

 

[dahrougem2]

Again... I called for that for a long time. IMO he was the 3rd best D prospect in that draft (and he was #25 in TSN's final rankings... higher than Bleacks actually). McKeown just slid, he would have been picked in the area expected if the Avs picked him.

And again, that's fine if you saw him there, but the Avs weren't the only team to pass on him. 26 other teams did as well. There are plenty of instances where you can look at a situation like that and wonder "what if"

 

[henchman21]

And again, that's fine if you saw him there, but the Avs weren't the only team to pass on him. 26 other teams did as well. There are plenty of instances where you can look at a situation like that and wonder "what if"

I get what you are saying, that doesn't mean that McKeown was any worse of a prospect or would have been a reach by the Avs. It was just another instance of the Avs going for a forward over a defensemen in the first. It is much harder to get a top end defensemen without drafting them high. I've been through this a number of times, but IMO you start a rebuild with getting a #1D or #1C prospect, the second priority is getting the other one. The Avs haven't drafted with that methodology.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I'm never and probably never will be fully onboard with "tanking" but I'd certainly be okay with a re-tool and letting some kids play the season out. They'll play their hearts out and who knows maybe even perform better than the team is right now. If they get worse we end up with a great pick in the draft.

If we can get a guy like Hanifin or a package of Barzal+HoSang/MDC/CDH for Duchene and then trade Tyson Barrie for a similar type of futures package I'd probably be all over it right now.

Let Rene play inflated minutes with Mackinnon to get a decent return on him at the deadline. Let Toots play with EJ (just limit his minutes a little so he doesn't exhaust himself by the deadline) and we might get a decent return on him. If we're headed in that direction Iggy will absolutely waive later in the season and even though he sucks we'd get some type of pick from him simply because of who he is.

That could turn into a lot of quality youth/picks. Would legitimately be buying picks which as you can see (Toronto/AZ) is a fantastic way to build your youth. The right way IMO. We all see each other questioning Sakic and his methods all the time but if he could turn two offseason UFA signings in Bourque and Tyutin into picks that would turn me into much more of a believer in him.

We don't need to "blow it up" or trade our entire core. But if management accepts what this season is earlier than later they can make this season a lot more valuable than it's on pace to become.

 

[dahrougem2]

I get what you are saying, that doesn't mean that McKeown was any worse of a prospect or would have been a reach by the Avs. It was just another instance of the Avs going for a forward over a defensemen in the first. It is much harder to get a top end defensemen without drafting them high. I've been through this a number of times, but IMO you start a rebuild with getting a #1D or #1C prospect, the second priority is getting the other one. The Avs haven't drafted with that methodology.

McKeown wasn't any worse of a prospect at the time, no, but it is just hindsight for us. Then again, if we start thinking about hindsight I may start to cry thinking about Ryan Stoa over Marc-Edouard Vlasic in 2005.

I'm never and probably never will be fully onboard with "tanking" but I'd certainly be okay with a re-tool and letting some kids play the season out. They'll play their hearts out and who knows maybe even perform better than the team is right now. If they get worse we end up with a great pick in the draft.

If we can get a guy like Hanifin or a package of Barzal+HoSang/MDC/CDH for Duchene and then trade Tyson Barrie for a similar type of futures package I'd probably be all over it right now.

Let Rene play inflated minutes with Mackinnon to get a decent return on him at the deadline. Let Toots play with EJ (just limit his minutes a little so he doesn't exhaust himself by the deadline) and we might get a decent return on him. If we're headed in that direction Iggy will absolutely waive later in the season and even though he sucks we'd get some type of pick from him simply because of who he is.

That could turn into a lot of quality youth/picks. Would legitimately be buying picks which as you can see (Toronto/AZ) is a fantastic way to build your youth. The right way IMO. We all see each other questioning Sakic and his methods all the time but if he could turn two offseason UFA signings in Bourque and Tyutin into picks that would turn me into much more of a believer in him.

We don't need to "blow it up" or trade our entire core. But if management accepts what this season is earlier than later they can make this season a lot more valuable than it's on pace to become.

I don't think we're going to see it happen, though. I'd be through the roof if it did, because a complete strip of the dead weight on this team is needed, but I don't think there are teams out there who would bite.

If by next season, players like Greer, Compher, Jost, and Bigras have replaced players like Iginla, Colborne, Mitchell, and Beauchemin, I'd be ecstatic. However, there are still players like Tyutin, Soderberg, Comeau, Martinsen, and Bourque who need to either be replaced or play to their capabilities (Comeau is the only one imo). Along with that, players like EJ and Barrie need to not suck.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

McKeown wasn't any worse of a prospect at the time, no, but it is just hindsight for us. Then again, if we start thinking about hindsight I may start to cry thinking about Ryan Stoa over Marc-Edouard Vlasic in 2005.



I don't think we're going to see it happen, though. I'd be through the roof if it did, because a complete strip of the dead weight on this team is needed, but I don't think there are teams out there who would bite.

If by next season, players like Greer, Compher, Jost, and Bigras have replaced players like Iginla, Colborne, Mitchell, and Beauchemin, I'd be ecstatic. However, there are still players like Tyutin, Soderberg, Comeau, Martinsen, and Bourque who need to either be replaced or play to their capabilities (Comeau is the only one imo). Along with that, players like EJ and Barrie need to not suck.

I could see some contenders being interested in Iginla and Beauch at the deadline. They'd likely have to be sold quite cheap, but I'd be all for it. Like you are saying, we need to really strip a lot of the deadweight off this team. This off-season will be really important. If the Avs can make some smart additions and stay away from the temptation of adding a "win now" vet I think they can get back on track. We will have an influx of younger players ready to join this team soon, so let's hope they aren't blocked by older players that hold back the team.

 

[Grackle Party]

They must trade All aging(Aged?) vets by the deadline (Rene B, Iginla etc..). If they resign Rene instead of cashing in on his great play that will be a huge blunder. If they dont make those moves I cant support Sakic as GM anymore

 

[dahrougem2]

I could see some contenders being interested in Iginla and Beauch at the deadline. They'd likely have to be sold quite cheap, but I'd be all for it. Like you are saying, we need to really strip a lot of the deadweight off this team. This off-season will be really important. If the Avs can make some smart additions and stay away from the temptation of adding a "win now" vet I think they can get back on track. We will have an influx of younger players ready to join this team soon, so let's hope they aren't blocked by older players that hold back the team.

I doubt we're going to see a vet added to put this team into "win now" mode because by the TDL, I think they'll be far and away out of the playoff hunt.

 

[henchman21]

McKeown wasn't any worse of a prospect at the time, no, but it is just hindsight for us. Then again, if we start thinking about hindsight I may start to cry thinking about Ryan Stoa over Marc-Edouard Vlasic in 2005.

It is hindsight, but that isn't my point. My point is that the organization has had a philosophy for a long time on how to rebuild this team. It is a philosophy that has yet to work... I will go as far to say that they won't build a Cup contending team with their current philosophy. Somethings have to change in the way they think or they will be doomed to bubble team, in a constant state of rebuilding, or at best, a low end playoff team.

What bothers me the most about it is that I don't think they are that far away from having the right basic set of pieces... they just seemingly refuse to develop certain ones or have too much faith in a prospect developing perfectly without a backup plan.

 

[dahrougem2]

It is hindsight, but that isn't my point. My point is that the organization has had a philosophy for a long time on how to rebuild this team. It is a philosophy that has yet to work... I will go as far to say that they won't build a Cup contending team with their current philosophy. Somethings have to change in the way they think or they will be doomed to bubble team, in a constant state of rebuilding, or at best, a low end playoff team.

What bothers me the most about it is that I don't think they are that far away from having the right basic set of pieces... they just seemingly refuse to develop certain ones or have too much faith in a prospect developing perfectly without a backup plan.

The philosophy hasn't changed for years, and it's why we are where we are today. No arguments there. Nor do I see it changing. Yes, there's been an added emphasis on the development of younger players picked later on (Bigras, Greer, Meloche, acquiring Compher), but the philosophy still seems to be the same.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

I doubt we're going to see a vet added to put this team into "win now" mode because by the TDL, I think they'll be far and away out of the playoff hunt.

I'm more talking the off-season additions. I still think Iggy was a panic move to try to fill in for the production Stastny left, and he was the biggest flashy move they could've made then.

 

[dahrougem2]

I'm more talking the off-season additions. I still think Iggy was a panic move to try to fill in for the production Stastny left, and he was the biggest flashy move they could've made then.

I don't believe so. I think James Neal was option 1 based on all the rumblings at the draft, Paul Stastny was option 2, and Jarome Iginla was option 3. The Avs struck out on option 1, chose not to pursue option 2 when Stastny presented an opportunity to match, so Iginla it was.

Whether it's smart of them to pay that much money for a "3rd option" is a different topic entirely, though.

 

[Murzu]

Alzner wants 5.5-6 million... No thanks.

We'd have money to give a 6M per deal for him. It sounds like a small overpayment but he fills a need. Alzner - EJ sounds to me like a good 1st pairing.

Edit. Where did you get that number?

 

[AslanRH]

I'd give significant odds that Alzner isn't leaving the Caps. I bet he is signed at $5-5.5m by Valentines Day