Rumor: Duchene for...? Part III

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CobraAcesS

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Faulk is overrated by HF as a whole, but quite underrated elsewhere (Bob Stauffer, USA Hockey, etc.) My take on it is that if he’s producing, he’s a lower-end to mid-tier 1D. If he’s not, he’s a solid, complimentary top-pairing guy.

Offensively, Faulk makes a good first pass and rushes the puck up the ice with authority, but he doesn’t have great vision in the offensive zone. His shot sets up his offensive game. It’s the same thing with Shea Weber. Faulk has run into some issues recently with his goal scoring. Around this time last year, we thought he was in the midst of a goal scoring breakout; he had a massive PPG outburst from Oct.-Dec. 15. After that point, his goal scoring on the PP dried up. From my vantage point, I think that teams have caught on to what Carolina’s trying to do with the man advantage. Give the puck to Faulk and let him shoot. The Canes don’t really have a threat to score from outside the high danger zone, aside from Faulk. PKers shade over to his side, lay-out and take away the shooting lane for his slap shot. To Faulk’s credit, he doesn’t try to shoot through them, but instead, tries to shoot around them with a wrist shot looking for deflections and/or rebounds. He’s not going to score a lot of goals with those low percentage shots, though.

Defensively, I don’t think his +/- matches up with his actual defensive ability. It’s weird. He’s on the ice for a lot of goals, but he’s not this albatross defensively (most of the time.) I view him as having above average defensive acumen. Faulk makes good, aggressive reads at the line and in the neutral zone. He has really good hand-eye and an active stick, which allows him to break up a lot passes, often in mid-air, and disrupt the flow of the attack. In the actual defensive zone, he’s solid. Nothing really stands out.

Anyway, the reason I said most of the time in parenthesis is because Faulk does have an issue with consistency. He has games and sometimes stretches of games in which he’s noticeably bad defensively. I’d like to blame the injury Brad Malone caused in practice last season, but this has been an issue I’ve noticed going all the way back to his days paired with Sekera.

Ideally, the Canes address the need for a forward in a different way (i.e. getting lucky with the lottery.) It’s probably a pipe dream, unfortunately. So, there may be a trade coming in the future. I’m not sure Faulk is the guy to go. His shot is a unique asset; if they can put some talent around him maybe that would create more lanes for him to use it. Additionally, Carolina right now has a nice balance of handedness on the backend. Of the notable defensive prospects in the pipeline, 2 are left-handed (Fleury and Bean) and only 1 is right-handed (McKeown). It may make more sense to move a LHS than a RHS for the purpose of maintaining that balance.

Thanks for the post

EJ does have similar issues, but is usually better defensively, while not as dynamic offensively. Hes been making a ton of glaring mistakes this season as well. But it feels like hes trying to push a lot harder to create offensively.

My guy. I don't post often. But I go to Ohio State. I'm an east coast kid. No I don't watch the Canes everyday. I watch a ton of CBJ and Avs games tho. But I have seen Faulk play live twice in person and at least double digit times in the last two years. Didn't leave me thinking "Jesus, wish he was an Av/BJ" not once.

I'm sorry if my opinion offends you. But to me I see a guy with a solid shot and one of the better PPQBs in the NHL. But he plays more minutes than I feel he can handle and I think he's more suited to be a #2 with a Vlasic/Suter type partner.

I'm not the only person who feels that way. I mean team USA just picked Jack ****ing Johnson over him. Even EJ for that matter. Good or bad decision aside. I'm clearly not the only person to see it that way.

Duchene goes. A true or potential #1 has to be coming back. I mean on a cup caliber team. My opinion is EJ isn't good enough to lead a blue line on an elite team. But he can be the Vlasic 1B type with a great partner. That's the same way I look at Faulk. And maybe Hanifin becomes that guy for Carolina and Hanifin/Faulk becomes Burns/Vlasic-esque.

Again no offense. But I only said something because. I wouldn't be happy with Faulk as a return and more importantly because someone put him in the same breath as OEL.

That makes more sense, thanks for explaining your POV

I should definitely back off some of this stuff sometimes, but sometimes frustration gets the better of me.
 

Ivan13

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For my money, Faulk is significantly better than EJ. Steadier on both ends of the ice and a massive improvement on the PP. EJ maybe has higher peaks, but they are not all that common.

I've said it multiple times, but I'll repeat, if we start a rebuild I hope we do it right this time. And that means moving EJ and Varlamov first. It's not that they are a part of the problem, but they surely aren't the part of the solution given their age and injury history.
 

CobraAcesS

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For my money, Faulk is significantly better than EJ. Steadier on both ends of the ice and a massive improvement on the PP. EJ maybe has higher peaks, but they are not all that common.

I've said it multiple times, but I'll repeat, if we start a rebuild I hope we do it right this time. And that means moving EJ and Varlamov first. It's not that they are a part of the problem, but they surely aren't the part of the solution given their age and injury history.

I think we should keep EJ like AZ is doing with OEL, and how Calgary kept Gio. Those guys can be important anchors when you have younger defenders.

I'm not sure the return will be worth more than that.
 

the_fan

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Duchene and MacKinnon should be wingers. If Avs do end up picking Nolan Patrick and then Tyson Jost makes a jump to NHL, the top 6 should be

Landeskog-Patrick-MacKinnon
Duchene-Jost-Rantanen

Both Patrick and Jost are better two way centers, and the style Duchene and MacKinnon play is best suited for wing.
 
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UncleRisto

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Duchene and MacKinnon should be wingers. If Avs do end up picking Nolan Patrick and then Tyson Jost makes a jump to NHL, the lop 6 should be

Landeskog-Patrick-MacKinnon
Duchene-Jost-Rantanen

Both Patrick and Jost are better two way centers, and the style Duchene and MacKinnon play is best suited for wing.

Soon enough that'd look great, right out of the gate for the two top-6 centers though I have my doubts about it.
 

the_fan

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Soon enough that'd look great, right out of the gate for the two top-6 centers though I have my doubts about it.

I know what you mean, but Duchene was given center right out of the gate and he did fine, MacKinnon was eased to center because his defensive game needed improvement, but from what i see and read about both Jost and Patrick, they are natural two way centers that play a smart game, and should have no issue adjusting to NHL at that position.
 

UncleRisto

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I know what you mean, but Duchene was given center right out of the gate and he did fine, MacKinnon was eased to center because his defensive game needed improvement, but from what i see and read about both Jost and Patrick, they are natural two way centers that play a smart game, and should have no issue adjusting to NHL at that position.

Yeah, it's not the positions, more the roles I'd be concerned about.
 

5280

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Completely agreed.


Faulk is a #1 already. If you dont believe that, you need to watch him play a lot more. He's worlds ahead of Barrie Defensively and just as efficient(Actually more efficient in reality) as him Offensively. He can actually run a PP, has a great shot, and can do more for a break out instead of just trying to skate it out or turn it over.


Not to mention he's still quite young for a Dman, and signed for another 3 years after this year for a great cap hit.


Trading Duchene for him would be the best 1 for 1 trade the Avs could realistically find. Certainly wouldn't be a loss trade for Sakic.

In my mind I have thought the same thing over the years. Even had a discussion with a life long Canes fan about it last year who was interested in Duchene.
 

the_fan

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MacK is fine as a center. Not sure if you guys have noticed but he's crushing it in the faceoff circle this year and has made strides defensively.

MacKinnon has improved a lot defensively and does fine on faceoffs, but his style is still better suited for wing. He likes to fly up and down the ice and shots the puck a lot, and if he gets a play making smart center to play with, he'll put up more numbers i believe.

Centers should be more puck possession, slow down the play, look to make plays etc...something MacKinnon doesn't do.
 

Ivan13

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I think we should keep EJ like AZ is doing with OEL, and how Calgary kept Gio. Those guys can be important anchors when you have younger defenders.

I'm not sure the return will be worth more than that.

OEL isn't comparable with EJ really IMHO, and as for Gio, Flames, just like us didn't go through a proper rebuild and are pretty much destined to be a mediocre team until they do so.

The assets that can be procured for EJ far outweigh what he can bring in regards to insulating the young D. Not to mention that he missed quite some time to injuries so that line of thinking isn't what I'd support. But you (and I'm sure plenty of others) might disagree with that. I just don't see that the cons of trading him outweighing the pros.
 

the_fan

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Yeah, it's not the positions, more the roles I'd be concerned about.

If they care about the team and winning, it shouldn't be a problem. Besides we saw in world cup how both Duchene and MacKinnon did when playing with good play making centers, and they both have played good share of wing with the Avs and it seemed to work out without complaints.
 

CobraAcesS

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OEL isn't comparable with EJ really IMHO, and as for Gio, Flames, just like us didn't go through a proper rebuild and are pretty much destined to be a mediocre team until they do so.

The assets that can be procured for EJ far outweigh what he can bring in regards to insulating the young D. Not to mention that he missed quite some time to injuries so that line of thinking isn't what I'd support. But you (and I'm sure plenty of others) might disagree with that. I just don't see that the cons of trading him outweighing the pros.

I guess we probably differ on the value he'd bring back as well then? I personally don't think it would be a whole lot. Not like Duchy or Barrie, and more like Varlamov.
 

Foppa2118

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MacK is fine as a center. Not sure if you guys have noticed but he's crushing it in the faceoff circle this year and has made strides defensively.

Not that I have an issue with Nate at center per se, but the Avs individual faceoff numbers are pretty skewed IMO. McNab talks about how good they are all the time and it's starting to irritate me a bit.

As a team it's entirely accurate, and they're very good. 2nd in the league actually. But individually I don't think they're quite as good as the numbers suggest. Nate and Matt are both pretty good, but they're not crushing good IMO, all things being equal.

They have so many guys that can take faceoffs on the left and the right, that most of the time they switch so guys are always taking them on their strong side. Nate and Duchene's numbers benefit from this and it was especially evident when they played together.

Duchene for example a few years ago stated that he was just going to try to win every draw straight back clean. He's very good at this, but he still pretty much only tries to win them one way, and combined with always taking them on his strong side, it doesn't really add up to being one of the best faceoff guys in the league IMO like his numbers suggest, because those other guys are forced to take faceoffs on both sides, and in all situations, and they have to win them in multiple ways.

He's definitely a big help in the faceoff circle, and as a team they are very good, but a big part of that is because they have so many wingers like Mikko, Iggy, Comeau, Grigo, Colborne, and even Landy that can take draws, they're pretty much always taking them on their strong side when the top 3 lines are out there.
 
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Pierce Hawthorne

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In my mind I have thought the same thing over the years. Even had a discussion with a life long Canes fan about it last year who was interested in Duchene.

Yep.


I get the feeling Duchene is being overrated by our fans if they think Faulk for Duchene is a bad trade.


Neither one of them are top tier #1 guys. Duchene is a lower tier #1C probably in the 15-20 range of Centers(Maybe even lower tbh) while Faulk is a #1D in the 15-20 range.


If people are expecting Duchene to return a better Dman then that, they're significant overrating him. Especially once you factor in the value Dmen have in compared to forwards.

Realistically I would expect us to actually have to add a small piece to Duchene for Faulk. Faulk is a year younger, signed for a year long, and on a smaller cap hit.



At first I was thinking it was people underrating Faulk. Now I'm quite confident it's more overrating of Duchene.

The one thing I always question when it comes to Duchene is that fans seem to expect a player who has potential to be a top-flight #1 defensemen in return. Which is fine if you can get it, but from a purely value standpoint, Duchene is not a top-flight #1 centre.

I'd put Duchene in the same tier of centres that I would put Faulk in for defensemen, but that's just me. I understand wanting the young potential #1 defensemen, but I don't know if that's realistic to expect given I don't know how many teams are willing to trade a guy like that.

Couldn't have put it better myself. This is exactly what's going on in with Duchene. We have certain people who think Duchene belongs a tier above where he actually is, or that he can return a Dman a tier above where he is. In reality Dmen have more value and if anything Duchene would fetch a Dman a tier below him rather then a Tier above.
 
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Ivan13

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I guess we probably differ on the value he'd bring back as well then? I personally don't think it would be a whole lot. Not like Duchy or Barrie, and more like Varlamov.

I think he would bring more than Varlamov, but obviously less than the other two, which is still good. And again, trading Duchene, Barrie and Varlamov and then leaving EJ on the team makes little sense to me, because let's be honest, we aren't going anywhere soon.
 

CobraAcesS

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I think he would bring more than Varlamov, but obviously less than the other two, which is still good. And again, trading Duchene, Barrie and Varlamov and then leaving EJ on the team makes little sense to me, because let's be honest, we aren't going anywhere soon.

Yeah but you also can't just throw young defenders to the wolves the same way you can with top forwards.

It's not going to get any easier to sign guys in free-agency either, unless its scraping the bottom of the barrel.

One of the issues with our 'rebuild' was also having crap coaching. I like the way Toronto and Buffalo hired good coaches even during the rebuild so the guys coming in learn the right habits from the get go. We're seeing just how difficult those bad habits are to get rid of as well.

I'd just like a better example on the back end actually playing with the kids too, and not a rotating cast of Stuart/Holden/Guenin types you'd get during a rebuild.
 

Ivan13

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But they won't be thrown to the wolves like they aren't just now with EJ out, and quite frankly I'd like to see Z get more responsibilities.
 

tigervixxxen

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OEL isn't comparable with EJ really IMHO, and as for Gio, Flames, just like us didn't go through a proper rebuild and are pretty much destined to be a mediocre team until they do so.

The assets that can be procured for EJ far outweigh what he can bring in regards to insulating the young D. Not to mention that he missed quite some time to injuries so that line of thinking isn't what I'd support. But you (and I'm sure plenty of others) might disagree with that. I just don't see that the cons of trading him outweighing the pros.

I see the opposite, his value isn't going to be that fantastic on the market. His contract is a little long and he's more valuable here than elsewhere. It's not like he's easily replaced either. They'll never go for the full nuke so he might as well just stay and be the vet on D. Better than bringing in the next beauchemin.

Duchene is 2nd in the league at 60% on face offs on those who have taken more than 200. That's not good individually? MacKinnon is also at 54%
 
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the_fan

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If you're thinking about trading Duchene for a Dman, you don't make a one for one trade because you might get another Zadorov type, nothing against Zadorov but lets face it, the chances of Zadorov becoming a #1 d-man or even legit top pairing d-man is still questionable, or even doubtful.

You trade Duchene and add whatever it takes to land a legit #1 d-man. I.E. Offer of Duchene + 1st rounder for someone like OEL caliber d-man. I know OEL is not on trade market, i'm just making examples.
 

Pokecheque

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Yeah I'm with TV on that one. I don't think the rest of the league views him as a must-have, they view him as a guy who didn't live up to the promise of a 1st-overall pick. I think he will invariably decline from here on out, which is why I actually advocated dealing him for a time, but I've since changed my mind. All that said, he's still a very good player who maybe makes the occasional gaffe, not elite but someone you can build around. They just gotta quit screwing up in bringing a stay-at-home guy to play alongside him. Hejda wasn't a bad get but everyone since then has been a disaster. Zads offers more than a glimmer of hope at least.
 

Avs44

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Yep.


I get the feeling Duchene is being overrated by our fans if they think Faulk for Duchene is a bad trade.


Neither one of them are top tier #1 guys. Duchene is a lower tier #1C probably in the 15-20 range of Centers(Maybe even lower tbh) while Faulk is a #1D in the 15-20 range.


If people are expecting Duchene to return a better Dman then that, they're significant overrating him. Especially once you factor in the value Dmen have in compared to forwards.

Realistically I would expect us to actually have to add a small piece to Duchene for Faulk. Faulk is a year younger, signed for a year long, and on a smaller cap hit.



At first I was thinking it was people underrating Faulk. Now I'm quite confident it's more overrating of Duchene.

I think you're completely misrepresenting, or misunderstanding, the situation. I object to Duchene for Faulk not because I overrate Duchene, or think Duchene is more valuable I think Faulk is a bad fit with where the team needs to go. First, flat out, if they trade Duchene, it should signal a rebuild in my opinion. Beyond that, Barrie is an offensive defensman, EJ makes gaffes defensively, and even though Zadorov is being held back right now, when he develops, I would like him to 'let loose' offensively more. The Avs, as I see it, need a steady defensive defenmsan with a great first pass. Furthermore, I know it might seem insignificant, but that defender should be left handed. They need someone to complement EJ / Barrie, not bump one of them down a pairing, or open up a slot to trade one of them.


The problem with the defense right now, as I see it, is that they have a pretty good right side. However, not only is the left side a mess, and it has been for years, but they players they do have there don't complement the right side at all. If Duchene is traded for a defender, it should be, finally, for a Johnson partner. Then this team can finally have a proper top pairing, and two top pairing defensmen who actually gel together. Instead, under your plan, we still end up with EJ / Faulk on the right side, Barrie presumably traded somewhere, and the same mess playing on the left side, as always. A Barrie upgrade is now what this team needs. They need a massive Beauchemin upgrade who is a steady defensive presence first and foremost.
 

The Kingslayer

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Duchene and MacKinnon should be wingers. If Avs do end up picking Nolan Patrick and then Tyson Jost makes a jump to NHL, the top 6 should be

Landeskog-Patrick-MacKinnon
Duchene-Jost-Rantanen

Both Patrick and Jost are better two way centers, and the style Duchene and MacKinnon play is best suited for wing.

That top 6 looks way better just by adding 2 kids lol.
 
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