Rumor: Duchene for...? Part III

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Speaking of Duchene, it's amazing just how much he's reinvented himself over the last couple years.


Specifically how much more useful of a shoot he has become. He went from basically being an ~11% shooter over the first 6 seasons of his career. To now having posted a 15% shooting percentage last season, and following it up with an even better 19.2% through 1/5 of an 82 game season this year while still shooting the same amount as he used to.

He's become so much smarter with his shot and accurate with it. I think he's realized that it's more about the accuracy of the shot rather then the strength of it.


This is something I think Mack could learn from a little bit. Sometimes he unloads that shot and it seems like he's unloading it to get it off as fast as he can and get as much behind it as possible. If he started taking just that extra half a second to really pick his spot I think he could see the same jump in as Duchene(Not all the way up to a 15-16% shooter, but more like league average of ~11-12%).



If Mack can become a 12% shooter, he'd be a 30 Goal, 70 point forward every year without changing anything else in his game.

 

[tigervixxxen]

FOR TONIGHT? And I don't really care about "All he can", as that is exactly the question here. What exactly is he?

What about all of the other times hes had Duchene and Rantnen, or Landeskog, or even just Rantanen? Because we know for damn well that he has already diverted to Duchene while Duchy was on his line last season. MacK has had the best line-mates outside of maybe his first season here IMO.

Facts are facts, the kid isn't special on the defensive end, and he hasn't put more than a 20 or so game stretch together where he was exceptional offensively during the season.

I absolutely believe he'll be a playoff performer. However, he will not hit his offensive potential unless he has another forward doing the heavy lifting, or unless hes at RW. Hes just not smart enough.

Fact, hes not leading this team anywhere as our #1C IMO

It's scorched earth, but this isn't hyperbole it's how I feel. I just don't believe hes going to turn some magic corner this late, it's not something that's happened often in the past.

I'm not talking about just tonight, those stats encompass the entire season. Who is the defensive line on this team then with Landy out? Who goes against the other team's top lines?

That's fine if you feel that way. Nothing wrong with having an opinion. My opinion is this ****ing team needs so much god damn help it's absolutely astonishing. I can't believe there was a discussion about picking up a 4th liner on waivers. The delusion runs deep. This might very well be the worst team in the league. Let that sink in. Complaining about Mack not being a superstar is like arguing the beef wasn't good enough on the Titanic.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Should get Sakic fired if he trades Duchene for Faulk.
Absolutely not what we need. He is another #2 D who ultimately would lead us nowhere. Trading Duchene for him and then trading EJ or Barrie (yeah I know you hate him but still) is a terrible idea and will ultimately backfire hard...



And yeah I am fine with MacKinnon. He is no McDavid or Crosby but that is on you for having way overblown expectations and not on him. He is basically our all-situation center who always gets the tough matchups and is playing with a rookie and a PTO guy on a terrible team.
If he hits 60-65+ points this season, I will be fine with his progression.

Faulk would be the best realistic Dman the Avs could get in return for Duchene without having to add some significant assets.


He's not a #2 he's a #1. And without a doubt he'd be the #1 on this team. He's also just 24 years old.


For someone who has been as adamant as you have been about this team needing major help on Defense, calling this trade a trade that should get Sakic fired is baffling to say the least. I have a feeling you haven't watched Faulk play much.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Speaking of Duchene, it's amazing just how much he's reinvented himself over the last couple years.


Specifically how much more useful of a shoot he has become. He went from basically being an ~11% shooter over the first 6 seasons of his career. To now having posted a 15% shooting percentage last season, and following it up with an even better 19.2% through 1/5 of an 82 game season this year while still shooting the same amount as he used to.

He's become so much smarter with his shot and accurate with it. I think he's realized that it's more about the accuracy of the shot rather then the strength of it.


This is something I think Mack could learn from a little bit. Sometimes he unloads that shot and it seems like he's unloading it to get it off as fast as he can and get as much behind it as possible. If he started taking just that extra half a second to really pick his spot I think he could see the same jump in as Duchene(Not all the way up to a 15-16% shooter, but more like league average of ~11-12%).



If Mack can become a 12% shooter, he'd be a 30 Goal, 70 point forward every year without changing anything else in his game.

League average is like 8-9%. Maybe the good players the average is closer to 11%. Mack puts a lot of shots on goal, that's the trade off you get. I know the argument is going to be they are all crap but the circle jerk stats guys love shots on goal and use that to determine offensive competence.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I'm not talking about just tonight, those stats encompass the entire season. Who is the defensive line on this team then with Landy out? Who goes against the other team's top lines?

That's fine if you feel that way. Nothing wrong with having an opinion. My opinion is this ****ing team needs so much god damn help it's absolutely astonishing. I can't believe there was a discussion about picking up a 4th liner on waivers. The delusion runs deep. This might very well be the worst team in the league. Let that sink in. Complaining about Mack not being a superstar is like arguing the beef wasn't good enough on the Titanic.

ROTFL, ok on a team level that is fair, but that isn't the discussion or what I'm questioning.

My question is holding on to a player that has far more value right now than what I believe he will fulfill as far as potential. I'd rather capitalize on that potential in the best way possible, and I don't believe the best way to do that is to keep him on this team.

Simple fact, MacK's issue has nothing to do with his line mates, as hes had the best opportunities on this team outside of his first season. Not being able to put up a season above 60 points is begging to be called a bust. Mark my words, past this season he'll start to get some serious criticism if he is sub 70 points on the year, or at least paced for that.

I want this team to succeed, and I don't think MacKinnon leads us to that success. So I'd like to capitalize on his current value, but while I'll get called stupid for it, I'm sticking to my opinion. History is on my side, and I've watched every game hes played in the NHL.

This team is a damn NHL grenade waiting to happen, so I'm not really looking at the whole right now.

 

[JoemAvs]

Faulk would be the best realistic Dman the Avs could get in return for Duchene without having to add some significant assets.


He's not a #2 he's a #1. And without a doubt he'd be the #1 on this team. He's also just 24 years old.


For someone who has been as adamant as you have been about this team needing major help on Defense, calling this trade a trade that should get Sakic fired is baffling to say the least. I have a feeling you haven't watched Faulk play much.

Or I simply want a potential #1 D in return if we trade Duchene and personally do not like Faulk at all when it comes to being that?
And maybe I am way higher on Barrie than most of the other people in here and think trading for a RHD who puts up the points is not the way to go for this team?

But yeah. Lets lose some more trades. Trade our 25 year old (cause he is getting too old for this new rebuild basically) guy for a 24 year old and than be forced to trade another 25 year old for futures or freaking RNH...

 

[CobraAcesS]

Our fan bases reaction to Faulk is just more example as to how underrated he is, and has been for a long time.

I don't believe for a second half of the people commenting have watched Faulk play all that much, and as a person who is a fan of Tampa, and has a wife who is a Detroit fan. I'd bet on my viewings of Carolina and my opinion 10/10 in this case.

Btw I've actually seen some of these Eastern teams play in person over the last three years, because I had a STM for Tampa, and every time I'm in Michigan for even a couple of weeks we'd go to live Detroit games. One thing I feel confident about is talking about Eastern players and teams.

 

[tigervixxxen]

ROTFL, ok on a team level that is fair, but that isn't the discussion or what I'm questioning.

My question is holding on to a player that has far more value right now than what I believe he will fulfill as far as potential. I'd rather capitalize on that potential in the best way possible, and I don't believe the best way to do that is to keep him on this team.

Simple fact, MacK's issue has nothing to do with his line mates, as hes had the best opportunities on this team outside of his first season. Not being able to put up a season above 60 points is begging to be called a bust. Mark my words, past this season he'll start to get some serious criticism if he is sub 70 points on the year, or at least paced for that.

I want this team to succeed, and I don't think MacKinnon leads us to that success. So I'd like to capitalize on his current value, but while I'll get called stupid for it, I'm sticking to my opinion. History is on my side, and I've watched every game hes played in the NHL.

This team is a damn NHL grenade waiting to happen, so I'm not really looking at the whole right now.

But what the team does around a player matters. They aren't out there on an island and can just will the puck in the net all the time. Hell, he did it tonight all himself on the shorty. I use the same argument for Duchene. If you want to hold them accountable for goal scoring then that's fine. But points, which assists largely factor into that absolutely has to do with the talent around them and the number of goals a team produces. If any of those guys are going to get the 40+ assists that are needed to get into the 70+ range then they need a better team around them, it's just a simple fact.

If they were going to nuke the team, sure I think it is fair to wonder why we'd hold on to the most valuable piece. They aren't going to get back someone better than Mack though. I'm not really sure how you fix that to get someone better.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Our fan bases reaction to Faulk is just more example as to how underrated he is, and has been for a long time.

I don't believe for a second half of the people commenting have watched Faulk play all that much, and as a person who is a fan of Tampa, and has a wife who is a Detroit fan. I'd bet on my viewings of Carolina and my opinion 10/10 in this case.

Completely agreed.


Faulk is a #1 already. If you dont believe that, you need to watch him play a lot more. He's worlds ahead of Barrie Defensively and just as efficient(Actually more efficient in reality) as him Offensively. He can actually run a PP, has a great shot, and can do more for a break out instead of just trying to skate it out or turn it over.


Not to mention he's still quite young for a Dman, and signed for another 3 years after this year for a great cap hit.


Trading Duchene for him would be the best 1 for 1 trade the Avs could realistically find. Certainly wouldn't be a loss trade for Sakic.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Our fan bases reaction to Faulk is just more example as to how underrated he is, and has been for a long time.

I don't believe for a second half of the people commenting have watched Faulk play all that much, and as a person who is a fan of Tampa, and has a wife who is a Detroit fan. I'd bet on my viewings of Carolina and my opinion 10/10 in this case.

Btw I've actually seen some of these Eastern teams play in person over the last three years, because I had a STM for Tampa, and every time I'm in Michigan for even a couple of weeks we'd go to live Detroit games. One thing I feel confident about is talking about Eastern players and teams.

And I just saw in an article how he's like one of the top 5 most disappointing players this year. I'm not saying I know, I don't follow them. Just funny the timing of it.

 

[CobraAcesS]

But what the team does around a player matters. They aren't out there on an island and can just will the puck in the net all the time. Hell, he did it tonight all himself on the shorty. I use the same argument for Duchene. If you want to hold them accountable for goal scoring then that's fine. But points, which assists largely factor into that absolutely has to do with the talent around them and the number of goals a team produces. If any of those guys are going to get the 40+ assists that are needed to get into the 70+ range then they need a better team around them, it's just a simple fact.

If they were going to nuke the team, sure I think it is fair to wonder why we'd hold on to the most valuable piece. They aren't going to get back someone better than Mack though. I'm not really sure how you fix that to get someone better.

The value of young defense is huge right now, and that is the corner stone piece of rebuilding IMO.

I think I'd trade every core forward we have for young defenders trying to find a top three to four defenders. Because that is what I believe is the cornerstone of a rebuild, your defense.

So I don't really care if we get a current #1 back for MacKinnon, because the chance is enough to make it worth it. The Hall for Larsson deal was a extreme example, but I'd also point to Ryjo for Jones as another because Ryjo had, and does have serious effort issues, and was not even remotely close to a perfect #1C. Jones has almost no flaw except experience and Ryjo had very serious flaws and a questionable history.

Give me four young top end defenders, and I'll keep two or three of them and add a young top line to my team. The value is just insane right now, so yeah I believe we should actually rebuild and the major focus in all things should be drafting acquiring and developing defense.

I have to say, I no long care wtf happens to this team until we really focus on making our defense a strength. Until then we'll be spinning our wheels.

 

[Avs44]

Not quite sure where to put it, but my goodness RNH is bad right now. I know Barrie has been struggling, but RNH just looks terrible. I'm delighted Sakic didn't fall for that swap in the summer. I was re-watching Edmonton / Philly - I was watching parts of it between period breaks for the Avs and caught the end so I went back to it - and he is bad bad bad. He's terrible at faceoffs, mediocre defensively, and anemic offensively. The way Oiler fans still overrate the guy is quite surprising. I want nothing to do with him.

 

[JoemAvs]

And I just saw in an article how he's like one of the top 5 most disappointing players this year. I'm not saying I know, I don't follow them. Just funny the timing of it.

Yeah he has not been good this season. Slavin already has surpassed him as their top D basically (cause he is simply way better than Faulk defensively. Kid is good.)
Same for Pesce defensively and Hanifin probably will also be better than him in that regard soon. There is a reason why he is available. He is simply expendable in Carolina.

In general (discounting his bad start) Faulk is basically Barrie offensively (slightly better on the PP and in general but not by all that much) who can handle himself defensively on the top pairing and do decently but he certainly is not above average in that regard.
He is not a two-way force. He is an offensive D man with a somewhat ok-average defensive game.

He would make Barrie very expendable (wouldn't make much sense to keep Tyson around if you trade for Faulk).

It absolutely does not make any sense IMO to sacrifice Duchene for him unless someone gives you a steal of a deal for Barrie.
You still would be left searching for a real #1 D and more quality Ds in general (-1 +1 = 0).

 

[CobraAcesS]

And I just saw in an article how he's like one of the top 5 most disappointing players this year. I'm not saying I know, I don't follow them. Just funny the timing of it.

The guy is being pushed from some seriously high end rookies, but from what I've seen this year hes been good, and WAY BETTER than EJ in the game I've seen.

That's assuming you are talking about Faulk?

If he is even remotely off his game this is the perfect time to trade for him, because last season their fans didn't want anything to do with Duchene for Faulk.

Faulk is young enough he could work inside of a short rebuild with a strong base like ours as well. Some people are acting like the guy is EJ's age..

 

[CobraAcesS]

Yeah he has not been good this season. Slavin already has surpassed him as their top D basically (cause he is simply way better than Faulk defensively. Kid is good.)
Same for Pesce defensively and Hanifin probably will also be better than him in that regard soon. There is a reason why he is available. He is simply expendable in Carolina.

In general (discounting his bad start) Faulk is basically Barrie offensively (slightly better on the PP and in general but not by all that much) who can handle himself defensively on the top pairing and do decently but he certainly is not above average in that regard.
He is not a two-way force. He is an offensive D man with a somewhat ok-average defensive game.

He would make Barrie very expendable (wouldn't make much sense to keep Tyson around if you trade for Faulk).

It absolutely does not make any sense IMO to sacrifice Duchene for him unless someone gives you a steal of a deal for Barrie.
You still would be left searching for a real #1 D and more quality Ds in general (-1 +1 = 0).

Not true, until this season's body of work.

Please don't fall for the small sample size.

I've never thought Faulk was a true two-way guy, but he is insanely better than someone like Barrie. He'd easily be our #1D IMO

 

[Avs44]

Not true, until this season's body of work.

Please don't fall for the small sample size.

I've never thought Faulk was a true two-way guy, but he is insanely better than someone like Barrie. He'd easily be our #1D IMO

He struggled in many parts of last year too. His play this season began last season.

 

[CobraAcesS]

He struggled in many parts of last year too. His play this season began last season.

What part of last season?

 

[JoemAvs]

Not true, until this season's body of work.

Please don't fall for the small sample size.

I've never thought Faulk was a true two-way guy, but he is insanely better than someone like Barrie. He'd easily be our #1D IMO

He is not insanely better. And I am not talking about his current season because then I would not have said that he is better than Barrie offensively (yeah he really hasn't been good this season) ...

Yeah he is better. But he is someone you play on the top pairing because of his offense not because of his defense because that is not top pairing material.

You would still want EJ to take the tough minutes if you trade for him because he is way better defensively IMO (in general. Not when he is having brainfart night like he had a few times too often this season). and both of them are RHD.
So Faulk would play on the second pairing for all accounts and purposes.

Same as with Barrie defense will never be his strength. Yeah he is clearly better in his own zone but he IMO tops out as a #2 D as well .

I really don't think he is a good fit for us. He is basically a significant upgrade on Barrie who basically will fill the same role for us (#3 offensive D) at the cost of Matt freaking Duchene.

If I trade Duchene I want to add to our putrid blueline and not only upgrade our #3 role. I would want someone (with the potential to be) clearly better than EJ who could push everyone down 1 spot (does not have to be now but down the road).

 

[CobraAcesS]

He is not insanely better. And I am not talking about his current season because then I would not have said that he is better than Barrie offensively (yeah he really hasn't been good this season) ...

Yeah he is better. But he is someone you play on the top pairing because of his offense not because of his defense because that is not top pairing material.

You would still want EJ to take the tough minutes if you trade for him because he is way better defensively IMO (in general. Not when he is having brainfart night like he had a few times too often this season). and both of them are RHD.
So Faulk would play on the second pairing for all accounts and purposes.

Same as with Barrie defense will never be his strength. Yeah he is clearly better in his own zone but he IMO tops out as a #2 D as well .

I really don't think he is a good fit for us. He is basically a significant upgrade on Barrie who basically will fill the same role for us (#3 offensive D) at the cost of Matt freaking Duchene.

If I trade Duchene I want to add to our putrid blueline and not only upgrade our #3 role. I would want someone (with the potential to be) clearly better than EJ who would push everyone down 1 spot (does not have to be now but down the road).

You do realize based on TOI, Tyson Barrie has been our #1 all season right? What world of reality are you living in where EJ has to be our #1 because Faulk isn't a shutdown defender? Actually that is pretty much exactly what I'd want, EJ as a #2/#3 shut down guy while someone else takes some offensive heavy lifting from him, and defends 100x better than Barrie...

Duchene is a goal scoring winger right now

I'll take the QB over the WR thanks

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

OEL isn't exaclty a world beater in his own end either. Nor is Karlsson(Though he's obviously in another tier offensively)


OEL and Faulk are very comparable. They're fantastic elite Offensive Dmen. They're Defensive games are not as good, but they're not bad either. They can hold there own on the top pairing and dont look out of place.


OEL is a unanimous #1D in the league and in a lot of peoples Top 10's. Faulk really should not be far behind, in that 10-20 range. A clear step ahead of anything the Avs have and definitely a #1D.

 

[JoemAvs]

You do realize based on TOI, Tyson Barrie has been our #1 all season right? What world of reality are you living in where EJ has to be our #1 because Faulk isn't a shutdown defender? Actually that is pretty much exactly what I'd want, EJ as a #2/#3 shut down guy while someone else takes some offensive heavy lifting from him, and defends 100x better than Barrie...

Duchene is a goal scoring winger right now

I'll take the QB over the WR thanks

Yeah cause EJ got injured and went out early and now Barrie obviously has to eat heavier minutes with EJ out.

Lets agree to disagree.
He is not 100x better in his own zone (the difference is not even that big if Barrie can bounce back a bit and learn how to compensate for his height a bit more) and I want a legit top pairing with (X - EJ) who could wreak havoc defensively and offensively and eat big minutes in the playoffs.

X - Faulk is not that unless X is really, really good defensively.


@ Pierce:
You are (severely) underrating OELs defensive game and overrating Faulks defensive game.
I would not name the two in the same sentence in that regard. And OEL is a step above him offensively as well IMO.

IMO he would be in the conversation for top-5 (maybe even top 3) D in the league if he weren't stuck on a putrid team like the Coyotes.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Beauch has been taking EJ's minutes. TMV and I discussed on the podcast, before EJ got hurt, that Barrie was playing the most of any D and over 2 minutes more at even strength. That's just too much. But I guess that's not our problem now that Beauch will be getting big minutes.

 

[Gabe the Babe]

OEL isn't exaclty a world beater in his own end either. Nor is Karlsson(Though he's obviously in another tier offensively)


OEL and Faulk are very comparable. They're fantastic elite Offensive Dmen. They're Defensive games are not as good, but they're not bad either. They can hold there own on the top pairing and dont look out of place.


OEL is a unanimous #1D in the league and in a lot of peoples Top 10's. Faulk really should not be far behind, in that 10-20 range. A clear step ahead of anything the Avs have and definitely a #1D.

It's ridiculous that you could put those two in the same category to be 100% honest with you.

That's all I'll say. Faulk is nothing more than a bigger Barrie to me. Solid defenseman. But he's not a #1 on a championship caliber team. Not even close. AND if we trade Duchene. Even if you don't get a current similar age #1 on cup team back ie Hedman or OEL. You need to get a prospect with a solid chance of reaching that status and then a little extra forward prospect.

Btw I'm not saying Sergachev either. Idk about him tbh.

 

[JoemAvs]

Beauch has been taking EJ's minutes. TMV and I discussed on the podcast, before EJ got hurt, that Barrie was playing the most of any D and over 2 minutes more at even strength. That's just too much. But I guess that's not our problem now that Beauch will be getting big minutes.

Well my bad. Must have overheard that part and did not notice myself until now and thought it was a consequence of EJ going down early.

Yeah that seems a bit strange but is probably a consequence of Bednar desperately wanting to jump start our anemic offense.

I like Barrie but he really should not be our leader in TOI ever. Especially with the ridiculous amount of penalties we have to kill this season.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Well my bad. Must have overheard that part and did not notice myself until now and thought it was a consequence of EJ going down early.

Yeah that seems a bit strange but is probably a consequence of Bednar desperately wanting to jump start our anemic offense.

I like Barrie but he really should not be our leader in TOI ever. Especially with the ridiculous amount of penalties we have to kill this season.

I agree that playing from behind so much was probably part of that. But there's a limit, I don't think Barrie at 25 minutes gets you more offense.