News Article: Dubas: unlikely Matthews and Marner would sign an extension before Oct. 3

[1specter]

Dreger has already started the fear mongering

"Potentially, but I can tell you this. Marner and his camp are committed to getting the Matthews deal done first before they get into the heavy negotiations with GM Kyle Dubas," Dreger said on Insider Trading. "That remains unchanged, that’s been their position effectively since Day 1.

"There are some who believe that the Maple Leafs would like to get Marner done on a six-year term at $8-9 million per season. Forget about it, that’s not happening. That’s way too light and maybe the Marner camp pushes back with a four-year contract position which would walk him into free agency. That’s not going to happen either, but Marner wants to make sure he’s got fair comparables and that includes whatever the Maple Leafs sign Matthews to."

 

[hockeywiz542]

LeBrun Notebook: The year of the UFA winger, 'Nashville...

One thing I picked up on when I sat down with Leafs GM Kyle Dubas last month was the first mention that I can remember of him connecting the trade deadline to the contract talks with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

Basically, Dubas suggested that it would be helpful to know at some level where those talks are going in terms of knowing what the Leafs can do at the trade deadline in terms of being able to add a contract or two. Why? Because Dubas, at least when we spoke, didn’t fancy adding a rental player. So if he makes a trade it appears it will be for a player with term past this season. Which is why it would be nice for the Leafs to know to some degree how much Marner and Matthews will cost starting next year.

But I don’t think Marner’s camp is backing down from the idea of waiting until after the season to get a deal done.

Agent Darren Ferris reiterated in a text message Tuesday that he will not waver on that.

“Yes, 100 percent,’’ he said. “Mitch wants to concentrate on this season.’’

Again, that strategy can only bring the number up. Makes sense from Marner’s perspective to wait.

There have been no such pronouncements from the Matthews camp. The sense I’ve gotten all along is that his agents Judd Moldover and Jeff Jackson are ready to negotiate whenever the Leafs want to get serious and come to the table.

I should note that Moldover and Jackson are meeting later this week and obviously Matthews will be among the topics.

 

[Mess]

Dreger has already started the fear mongering

It been reported that Matthews and his agent are willing to talk and perhaps agree to terms mid season, while Marner' agent Darren Ferris has stated they plan on waiting until after the season is over to sign..

That means Matthews new contract might come before Marner and then they use the Matthews contract as a comparison in their contract talks as a % of what AM received based on how statistically each player did.

Marner agent was on Leafs lunch and basically confirmed this personally.

 

[1specter]

It been reported that Matthews and his agent are willing to talk and perhaps agree to terms mid season, while Marner' agent Darren Ferris has stated they plan on waiting until after the season is over to sign..

That means Matthews new contract might come before Marner and then they use the Matthews contract as a comparison in their contract talks as a % of what AM received based on how statistically each player did.

Regardless of what order they sign in, at this point Kucherov and Gaudreau are both going to put a dent into Matthews' and Marner's leverage and demands, if they keep up their respective performances.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Paying Marner 11 million dollars a year is a laughable overpayment

Why do you care? The Leafs don't.

 

[Buds17]

People keep repeating the Tampa tax situation, but the Leafs have a massive advantage themselves with signing bonuses.

I think both can get overstated as advantages at times. One thing Tampa and Toronto currently have in common is contender status, and neither perceived advantage is exclusive to just either team. Signing bonuses just mean more guaranteed money (in the event of a lockout) and more money sooner. Heavy bonus contracts can also be much tougher to trade if enough teams can't afford to take on that type of structured deal. With a cap ceiling and floor and revenue sharing, the NHL does a fairly effective job at evening the playing field as much as is reasonably possible.

 

[Mess]

Regardless of what order they sign in, at this point Kucherov and Gaudreau are both going to put a dent into Matthews' and Marner's leverage and demands, if they keep up their respective performances.

Those are Marner comparables but not Matthews.. A true franchise #1 2-way C will not use those players as references to himself.

We're talking McDavid, Eichel and what Tavares makes for Auston.

If Marner leads the Leafs in scoring (+95% probability baring injury) then how much less $$ do you think he will want to take then AM and JT his teammates?

That is the Leafs dilemma.

That is why Dubas would like to ideally get Marner done first so that what Auston makes going 2nd will not impact or give Marner additional leverage.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

He's not the issue. It's marner. His agent is notorious for this type of stuff holdouts

His agent is just taking orders from Paul. Trust me on that one. I know Paul fairly well.

 

[justafan22]

His agent is just taking orders from Paul. Trust me on that one. I know Paul fairly well.

ugh. Dubas can just point to comparables and hold firm.

 

[justafan22]

Regardless of what order they sign in, at this point Kucherov and Gaudreau are both going to put a dent into Matthews' and Marner's leverage and demands, if they keep up their respective performances.

Draisaitl is the benchmark for serious negotiations. personally I think it'll be 8 years x 9 million

 

[JT AM da real deal]

ugh. Dubas can just point to comparables and hold firm.

Agreed. That's the way I would do it too. But lets hope he does not get offer sheeted as i would hate to lose him. It was always going to be hard to sign all 3 after Tavares was signed. Lets not lose sight of that.

 

[justafan22]

Agreed. That's the way I would do it too. But lets hope he does not get offer sheeted as i would hate to lose him. It was always going to be hard to sign all 3 after Tavares was signed. Lets not lose sight of that.

I'd be fine with losing him if the leafs got 4 1sts back.

 

[Trapper]

Draisaitl is the benchmark for serious negotiations. personally I think it'll be 8 years x 9 million

11 Matthews + 9 Marner = 20 million.
Should Matthews go as high as McDavid?
I don’t think so. That’s 1 mil more than Eichel.
Then JT + Nylander = 18
Total 38 mil.
Basically that’s Nylander + 2 million = Marner + 2 million = Matthews.

 

[justafan22]

11 Matthews + 9 Marner = 20 million.
Should Matthews go as high as McDavid?
I don’t think so. That’s 1 mil more than Eichel.
Then JT + Nylander = 18
Total 38 mil.
Basically that’s Nylander + 2 million = Marner + 2 million = Matthews.

39 million is my max for what I want to pay those 4 guys.

 

[Bluelines]

8.5 x 8 for Marner

and


11 x 8 for Matthews is what Dubas should open negotiations with.

Marner is 8th in scoring league wide.

Pretty sure Marner's number will start with a 1....

	Player	2019-20		GP	G	A	P	PIM	+/ -
1	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	F	43	21	50	71	22	12
2	Mikko Rantanen	RFA	F	43	19	47	66	34	16
3	Nathan MacKinnon	$6,300,000	F	43	25	40	65	20	16
4	Johnny Gaudreau	$6,750,000	F	44	26	38	64	10	20
5	Connor McDavid	$12,500,000	F	42	24	39	63	14	4
6	Brayden Point	RFA	F	43	26	31	57	16	18
7	Patrick Kane	$10,500,000	F	44	24	32	56	16	-8
8	Mitchell Marner	RFA	F	42	15	40	55	16	16
9	Blake Wheeler	$8,250,000	F	42	7	48	55	31	8
10	Sean Monahan	$6,375,000	F	44	23	31	54	6	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Trapper]

39 million is my max for what I want to pay those 4 guys.

Now it also depends on the length.
Nylander will be UFA by age 27.
The Tavares way.
Do Matthews and Marner want that as well?
All UFA by 27?

 

[justafan22]

Marner is 8th in scoring league wide.

Pretty sure Marner's number will start with a 1....

	Player	2019-20		GP	G	A	P	PIM	+/ -
1	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	F	43	21	50	71	22	12
2	Mikko Rantanen	RFA	F	43	19	47	66	34	16
3	Nathan MacKinnon	$6,300,000	F	43	25	40	65	20	16
4	Johnny Gaudreau	$6,750,000	F	44	26	38	64	10	20
5	Connor McDavid	$12,500,000	F	42	24	39	63	14	4
6	Brayden Point	RFA	F	43	26	31	57	16	18
7	Patrick Kane	$10,500,000	F	44	24	32	56	16	-8
8	Mitchell Marner	RFA	F	42	15	40	55	16	16
9	Blake Wheeler	$8,250,000	F	42	7	48	55	31	8
10	Sean Monahan	$6,375,000	F	44	23	31	54	6	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

LMAO. Dubas can just offer up comparables of Kucherov and Gaudreau if he wants 10 million to start

 

[capfit9]

If Marner waits for Matthews to sign first then if I were the Leafs I would wait for other RFA's Point, Laine, Rantanen, Tkachuk to sign first, not saying that these guys compare to Matthews but it will effect the market for Marner.

 

[Bluelines]

LMAO. Dubas can just offer up comparables of Kucherov and Gaudreau if he wants 10 million to start

... and the agent counters with % of cap. Would anyone have thought Nylander would sign for more than Pasternak, who is a better point producer at over a PPG ?

Revenue is about to spike with the Seattle expansion and the new US National TV rights deal. Cap is based on HRR (Hockey Related Revenue) both are HRR.

It's crazy money but its what the market will dictate.

 

[Bluelines]

If Marner waits for Matthews to sign first then if I were the Leafs I would wait for other RFA's Point, Laine, Rantanen, Tkachuk to sign first, not saying that these guys compare to Matthews but it will effect the market for Marner.

Offer sheets then would be a real possibility...

 

[1specter]

Draisaitl is the benchmark for serious negotiations. personally I think it'll be 8 years x 9 million

I'm sure his contract will be used as a comparable, but it doesn't hold that much weight on its own because Draisaitl was overpaid relative to his performance. Many players who had the same level of production or better are making between 6-7M, like Gaudreau and Pastrnak for example.

That being said, your prediction is probably pretty accurate/close, I think he lands somewhere between 8.5-9M as well.

 

[Drytoast]

You are going to see me lose my absolute shit with rage, when both Marner and Matthews ask for the f***ing moon while Point in Tampa comes in as the lowest of the three...

cap penalty should be calculated by take home pay AFTER TAXES.

Not before.

That would put every f***ing market on the same playing field and remove taxes as a consideration for contract negotiations.

 

[Bluelines]

If Marner wants more than 9.5 million he can get an offersheet.

He isn't worth 10+ million

And matthews isn't worth more than 12 right now

Why is he not worth it? A list of all players who are making 10 mil next year, I see one guy on that list who is playing better than Mitch. Point being is no one would have an issue paying Kane, Tavares, Crosby or McDavid $10 mil plus per year.

PLAYER	TEAM	AGE	CAP HIT	SALARY
1. John Tavares	TOR [TBODY] [/TBODY]	28	$11,000,000	$15,900,000
2. Carey Price	MTL [TBODY] [/TBODY]	31	$10,500,000	$15,000,000
3. Connor McDavid	EDM [TBODY] [/TBODY]	22	$12,500,000	$14,000,000
4. Tyler Seguin	DAL [TBODY] [/TBODY]	27	$9,850,000	$13,500,000
5. Jamie Benn	DAL [TBODY] [/TBODY]	29	$9,500,000	$13,000,000
6. Drew Doughty	LAK [TBODY] [/TBODY]	29	$11,000,000	$12,000,000
7. Nikita Kucherov	TBL [TBODY] [/TBODY]	26	$9,500,000	$12,000,000
8. John Carlson	WSH [TBODY] [/TBODY]	29	$8,000,000	$12,000,000
9. Anze Kopitar	LAK [TBODY] [/TBODY]	31	$10,000,000	$11,000,000
10. Max Pacioretty	VGK [TBODY] [/TBODY]	30	$7,000,000	$10,500,000
11. Logan Couture	SJS [TBODY] [/TBODY]	30	$8,000,000	$10,000,000
12. Brent Burns	SJS [TBODY] [/TBODY]	34	$8,000,000	$10,000,000
13. Jack Eichel	BUF [TBODY] [/TBODY]	22	$10,000,000	$10,000,000
14. Alex Ovechkin	WSH [TBODY] [/TBODY]	33	$9,538,462	$10,000,000
15. P.K. Subban	NSH [TBODY] [/TBODY]	30	$9,000,000	$10,000,000
16. Blake Wheeler	WPG [TBODY] [/TBODY]	32	$8,250,000	$10,000,00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[justafan22]

I'm sure his contract will be used as a comparable, but it doesn't hold that much weight on its own because Draisaitl was overpaid relative to his performance. Many players who had the same level of production or better are making between 6-7M, like Gaudreau and Pastrnak for example.

That being said, your prediction is probably pretty accurate/close, I think he lands somewhere between 8.5-9M as well.

Yup.

 

[Mess]

You are going to see me lose my absolute **** with rage, when both Marner and Matthews ask for the ****ing moon while Point in Tampa comes in as the lowest of the three...

cap penalty should be calculated by take home pay AFTER TAXES.

Not before.

That would put every ****ing market on the same playing field and remove taxes as a consideration for contract negotiations.

I think people forget that there are a bunch of teams for affordability reasons that play at the cap floor and spend $16-18 mil less than some big market teams. That is a much bigger disadvantage than state taxes advantages.

UPPER LIMIT: 79.5M - LOWER LIMIT: 58.8M