News Article: Dubas: unlikely Matthews and Marner would sign an extension before Oct. 3

Stephen

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Dubas left the team going into the season with millions of dollars available to be had. Moral of the story, don't leave money on the ground because someone will see it and do the leg work to get go pick it up. That's what Gross and Nylander did, they exploited Dubas' rookie mistake. Had he only left use with say 7m he could have ended this to start the season. That also means Nylander would not be rusty etc and we may have an additional 1 year player on roster that is damn good for the cup run.

It's probably not that smart to leave yourself with no outs in a situation like this. If the situation had been reversed, let's say and he spent to the cap to re-sign JVR leaving only exactly $6.9 million and they couldn't get a deal done, I'm sure we'd all be wondering why we didn't leave some wriggle room.
 
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thewave

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Just curious. Who are these rentals that you would have brought in and who would they have replaced on the roster? Although not perfect by any means, the Leafs did sign Tyler Ennis as a 1 year rental. Also, leaving only 7m would be disastrous, considering you have to sign Nylander and Matthews and Marner's bonus structure would roll over to next year when the real cap hit will hurt.

You only use what is needed for this year. A rental D or something we could get off someone. Matthews and Marner are next years cap.
 

Buds17

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Dubas left the team going into the season with millions of dollars available to be had. Moral of the story, don't leave money on the ground because someone will see it and do the leg work to get go pick it up. That's what Gross and Nylander did, they exploited Dubas' rookie mistake. Had he only left use with say 7m he could have ended this to start the season. That also means Nylander would not be rusty etc and we may have an additional 1 year player on roster that is damn good for the cup run.

That's assuming $7M would've been both offered and accepted at the start of the season though. Considering the negotiation went right down to the wire, I don't know the likelihood of that. It also wasn't a one year contract signed. Think both sides compromised, but tough to know if it was exactly equal or not.
 

JT AM da real deal

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You only use what is needed for this year. A rental D or something we could get off someone. Matthews and Marner are next years cap.
Marner and Matty's performance bonuses which per various websites have already been earned and can be paid and accounted for in this years CAP otherwise they carry forward into next season if we use the LTIR Horton money this year. If Horton stays on IR and gets paid then the bonuses stay this season. So it really depends on how many and how much we spend on UFA rentals. If those performance bonuses go into next years CAP then deduct $5.4M from next seasons CAP. We are already in CAP hell next season with Matty and Marners contracts so it is essential we deal with the rest of ELC performance bonuses this season.
I got this mixed up because you can't look at like $925K to Matty in reality it is $11.3M contract over 3 years in his ELC or $3.8M AAV but only $925K CAP hit.
 

thewave

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That's assuming $7M would've been both offered and accepted at the start of the season though. Considering the negotiation went right down to the wire, I don't know the likelihood of that. It also wasn't a one year contract signed. Think both sides compromised, but tough to know if it was exactly equal or not.

The whole point in negotiations is to have a line drawn in the sand. The Organization shouldn't have dicked around and just presented a good and final offer and made it a play or sit deal. If he isn't in camp start moving some assets, make a trade and prepare for a season without Nylander. We overpaid a half million a year AAV which is quite a bit if you consider as a % that's like 9-10%. 10% overpays for Marner and Matthews will be closer to 1m each. You're now looking at 2-2.5m and that's a good chunk of change. I guess Kappy will want 10% more than other comparables as well and so it goes.

"They" said he was offered 6m to start. That's low, why not just match Pasta for instance and call it a day. That's the best offer, you're not as good as him but with the cap going up and adjustments it's fair. That's all they should have done.
 

hockeywiz542

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LeBrun: Q&A with Kyle Dubas on the Nylander negotiations,...
Obviously, that’s a priority now to get both those players signed. Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, has been on record a few times saying they would prefer to wait until after the year. So how do you proceed now on both of these fronts?

Well, I think with Mitch and Darren, Darren has said that publicly that they don’t want it to be a distraction for Mitch in the season and we fully respect that. We still have discussions with Darren of course on that and other matters. Things can always change during a season. There are breaks during the schedule and different points and obviously once the season ends, well, it’s our top priority now never mind when the season ends, to continue to work toward an agreement with either of those parties. There have been lots of situations where either the team or the player in the history of sports say, “We’re going to wait.” The team might say, “We’ll see how the market shakes out.” Or the player says, “We don’t want to be distracted.” And then lo and behold something finds itself to the middle between them. We remain hopeful. I certainly respect their wishes.

And with Auston and (agent) Judd (Moldover), we continue to have discussions with Judd throughout. Obviously they’re very important players, they’re good players, and we just have to keep working our way to finding something that’s fair for them and works for our program.

This idea has been thrown out there a lot lately, and to some degree, I get a kick out of it because we rarely see it, but the idea that you guys could fall victim to an offer sheet come July 1. And I guess part of it is the situation you guys will be in cap-wise. But I assume you have a pretty standard response for that?


Listen, offer sheets are completely permissible within the NHL. They’ve been used rarely, especially of late, that said this summer there’s an influx of very highly talented restricted free agents. So I understand that the narrative and the conversation surrounding them is increasing. However, I do find it interesting that there’s roughly a third of the teams in the league which are going to have a very prominent restricted free agent coming due, some teams with more than one, including us, but we’re the only team that’s going to have one of our players receive an offer sheet (smirks). That part I find to be interesting. I think it builds a rather interesting (media) narrative around our talks and negotiations.

It’s been interesting talking to other GMs in the league and they sort of reiterate that, that it’s bizarre it’s only Maple Leafs players that can receive one. And I get it. It’s part of the marketplace and the fact the team is doing well and the players are playing well. I think it’s more a by-product of things going well than it is people just trying to stir up stuff about the team and the process. But we’re well-situated regardless of what happens with the players. Our absolute ambition and goal would be to have a negotiated agreement with the players as soon as we can. They’re going to be key parts of our team, we hope, for their entire careers. They’re key, core parts of our team right now.

As I said with the William signing, we don’t want to be in the business of seeing young, very talented, special people walk out of here. So, we’ll be able to keep the players regardless.
 

Buds17

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The whole point in negotiations is to have a line drawn in the sand. The Organization shouldn't have dicked around and just presented a good and final offer and made it a play or sit deal. If he isn't in camp start moving some assets, make a trade and prepare for a season without Nylander. We overpaid a half million a year AAV which is quite a bit if you consider as a % that's like 9-10%. 10% overpays for Marner and Matthews will be closer to 1m each. You're now looking at 2-2.5m and that's a good chunk of change. I guess Kappy will want 10% more than other comparables as well and so it goes.

"They" said he was offered 6m to start. That's low, why not just match Pasta for instance and call it a day. That's the best offer, you're not as good as him but with the cap going up and adjustments it's fair. That's all they should have done.

If true, 6M is on the low side IMO. Nylander did end up with a higher overall contract than Pastrnak though. I just can't imagine that (the Pastrnak contract or his own) was his aim in order to be signed for the start of the season.

It's probably on both sides that the contract didn't get done sooner. Just the same, credit to both for eventually getting it done as it doesn't seem like anything either should've walked away from.
 
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supermann_98

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It’s so true that other teams will have VERY prominent RFA’s like Rantanen, Laine, Point, Tkachuk .... but the media spins it that only the Leafs are likely to have to match an offer sheet because Matthews is a franchise C and/or Marner is ... well, Marner.

For an offer sheet to be signed two things need to happen:
  1. The other team has to get the RFA to agree to a contract, something even the retaining team has difficulties with in most instances. This would lead to a ridiculous contract offer which would probably blackball that GM. (If Montreal offers Matthews say 7 years at 15M per year, who else would want to deal with Montreal for driving up the salary structure?). Phoenix would bankrupt themselves with that contract so I won’t even go into that ridiculous scenario.
  2. The player has to be willing to say goodbye if the team doesn’t match. Would Mitch be happy leaving his childhood team and home for an extra million or so to play elsewhere? Probably not, but that could realistically happen if he signed an offersheet the Leafs feel is unreasonable.
 
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JT AM da real deal

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Point is the one other guy who could get offer sheeted but with Tampa's tax treatment I'm sure they will agree on a $6M bridge deal and Giradi bites the dust and all is CAP fine.

Laine is a shooter
Tkachuk is a power winger
Rantanen will get some big number but people are not sure if numbers are really coming from MAC

Bottom line does not change the fact Tampa and Toronto have best chances to get offer sheeted
 

hockeywiz542

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Mitch Marner’s agent meets with Maple Leafs’ GM in New Jersey - Sportsnet.ca
Marner’s agent Darren Ferris met with Dubas in New Jersey ahead of the Maple Leafs’ game against the Devils on Dec. 18, and is expected to be in Toronto for two Maple Leafs home games this weekend, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston on Saturday Headlines.

But Johnston added he doesn’t think Marner wants to sign during the season.

“While I believe the dialogue is positive, I’m still not convinced Mitch Marner wants to do a deal in season,” Johnston said. “I believe he’s still waiting for Auston Matthews but the dialogue has accelerated since Kyle Dubas met the media this week.”

Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos added that part of the reason Marner might want to wait until the end of the season to sign an extension is because rival teams could send him an offer sheet.

“Not only Marner but many of these pending restricted free agents are certainly intrigued by the offer sheet,” Kypreos said. “There’s a lot of people I’m sure, including Kyle Dubas, who believe that’s a lot of white noise. But behind the scenes I believe there are multiple teams telling these agents that there’s a distinct possibility we will offer sheet your player."

“In saying that, there’s a big difference between someone talking about that around Christmas and actually having the guts to do it on July 1.”
 

LeafFever

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Point is the one other guy who could get offer sheeted but with Tampa's tax treatment I'm sure they will agree on a $6M bridge deal and Giradi bites the dust and all is CAP fine.

Laine is a shooter
Tkachuk is a power winger
Rantanen will get some big number but people are not sure if numbers are really coming from MAC

Bottom line does not change the fact Tampa and Toronto have best chances to get offer sheeted

People keep repeating the Tampa tax situation, but the Leafs have a massive advantage themselves with signing bonuses.
 

JT AM da real deal

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People keep repeating the Tampa tax situation, but the Leafs have a massive advantage themselves with signing bonuses.
The Leafs real advantage, which the NHL is not happy about but can do nothing to stop, is the sponsorship deals. The leafs can say Tavares' signed here for a home town discounts which is true based on the CAP. But no one ever talks about the $3M sponsorship deals cut for him. Like I said everyone knows on the inside whether you are a player, parent or in management. You will see similar things happen for Marner and Matty too. Matty will sign for 12.5M soon and there will be another 3M in sponsorship deals there too. This stuff is all non-hockey related revenue. And the Leafs have 10X more than any other team in NHL. But the taxes paid to Ontario are a big hit and they are real. I know because my son deals with it every day at a lower level.
 

Mess

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People keep repeating the Tampa tax situation, but the Leafs have a massive advantage themselves with signing bonuses.

Signing bonus do not impact AAV so not sure how you see that as an advantage in terms of cap, where TB players take less $$ because they get to keep more money after taxes.
 

justafan22

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8.5 x 8 for Marner

and


11 x 8 for Matthews is what Dubas should open negotiations with.
 

JT AM da real deal

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Signing bonus do not impact AAV so not sure how you see that as an advantage in terms of cap, where TB players take less $$ because they get to keep more money after taxes.
Not a CAP advantage but it helps because it gets players their money faster and more time to invest. Remember this is all about what players are making after tax and it is all about the CAP for Leafs.
 

justafan22

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That will not get it done for either but its a good floor/base starting point. IMO

If Marner wants more than 9.5 million he can get an offersheet.

He isn't worth 10+ million

And matthews isn't worth more than 12 right now
 

Trapper

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If Marner wants more than 9.5 million he can get an offersheet.

He isn't worth 10+ million

And matthews isn't worth more than 12 right now
Marner is currently destroying Nylander’s contract year numbers.
With bonus money, Nylander makes 45 million/6 years. That’s 7.5 over the 6 years no matter how you want to slice the cap + bonus payment.
How much more is a winger on pace for 100 points worth vs. 60 points earning 7.5?
 

JT AM da real deal

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If Marner wants more than 9.5 million he can get an offersheet.

He isn't worth 10+ million

And matthews isn't worth more than 12 right now
Under your view both will either get offer sheeted or will sit next season and we will lose both from line-up. Is that really what you want? And really why do you care? Is it your money? Honestly the Leafs do not even care about the money it is literally chump change for them. If they pay Marner 10M or pay Marner 9M it is a rounding error in their bank account. Really it is not about cash it is about CAP for Leafs. So maybe he gets his 11M but 9M in CAP money and 2M in non-hockey related revenue money.
 

Mess

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Not a CAP advantage but it helps because it gets players their money faster and more time to invest. Remember this is all about what players are making after tax and it is all about the CAP for Leafs.

I think its a false equivalency to equate these 2 different things together as an offset advantage for one another.

I see a Tax free state helping a Teams cap by lowing the AAV for the player cost. ie Kucherov at $9.5 mil.

That is like $11 mil for a player in Toronto to take the same money after taxes home and would be +$1.5 mil more AAV to the team and less cap space.

If Kucherov is taking home an extra $1.5 mil/year then it really doesn't matter if Toronto would give their own player $10 mil in signing bonus and $1 mil in base. The player even if he invests the entire $10 mil, would be hard pressed to return $1.5 mil return on investment annually a year.

Beside Kucherov's contract is also front loaded that he gets a $11 mil signing bonus up front when his deal starts in July 2017 with and $1 mil base and takes home $12 mil in year #1..

Nikita Kucherov - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

What amount of money would the Leafs need to pay their player(s) so that player can claim he got the Kucherov contract in take home money after taxes?
 
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justafan22

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Under your view both will either get offer sheeted or will sit next season and we will lose both from line-up. Is that really what you want? And really why do you care? Is it your money? Honestly the Leafs do not even care about the money it is literally chump change for them. If they pay Marner 10M or pay Marner 9M it is a rounding error in their bank account. Really it is not about cash it is about CAP for Leafs. So maybe he gets his 11M but 9M in CAP money and 2M in non-hockey related revenue money.

Paying Marner 11 million dollars a year is a laughable overpayment
 

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