Dubas needs to own up to some of these issues

[Throw More Waffles]

McDavid signed for 16.9% of the salary cap in the year following his signing. Considering even a conservative expectation of an $83M salary cap next year, Matthews signed for 13.9%. Had Matthews signed for 8 years at a comparable contract to McDavid, his AAV would be over $14,000,000 severely disadvantaging the Leafs attempts to build around him in the next five years. Which is why the Leafs desired the five year term.

LMK if you need me to explain anything else to you.

Players sign for cap percentage at time of signing. In the Nylander threads, I tried bringing up Ehlers cap percentage for the year the contract STARTED (not the year he actually signed), and I was 100% shot down. Every single poster told me that that's not how it's done.

If it was, than Ehler's only signed to 7% of the cap (FAR lower than Nylander). But I was told time and again that that's not how it's done, so Ehlers signed at 8% of the cap.

Where is the consistency? Why do the arguments change around so often? I mean, you KNOW just how bad these overpayments are based on the ridiculous spin leafs fans are using to try and rationalize them.

And I'm not even getting into the fact that you think Matthews and McDavid are precisely equal comparables. Not even getting into it.

 

[Menzinger]

When you adjust everything he is paid on the same tier and McDavid. So, yes, he is overpaid.

McDavid is fairly underpaid given his on ice impact.

But Matthews still makes less total money and a lower aav than McDavid.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

McDavid is fairly underpaid given his on ice impact.

But Matthews still makes less total money and a lower aav than McDavid.

11.6x5 would translate to approximately how much over 8 (all 3 extra years being ufa years)?

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

The funniest thing about Dubas is that he should be the hero for all of the armchair QB's who have oft said "I can do this better than X GM." Yet, I guess due in part to some sort of envy, so many of the aforementioned armchair QB's resent him.

Nonetheless, I have long thought that a pro-sports GM is a job that any intelligent, ardent fan could do. So long as you aren't some sort of moron, it's not a difficult job in any capacity, especially GM of a team like the Leafs. Your performance has little consequence to the bottom line. Most decisions are a crapshoot. Unlike other business decisions, there is reasonable expectation that your decisions have a 50% chance of being successful. Stay above the 50% mark and you'll stick around, dip below, and you're gone.

Thus, I watch Dubas -and some of the other "fanboy" GMs across sports- with intrigue as they navigate the landscape.

The only issue I have with a guy like Dubas is that he does not seem to be overly intelligent. I think the outsider/fanboy GMs that have had tremendous success have typically had incredible pedigree. While I am not sold on Dubas in that regard, Brandon Pridham advises on the decisions that require great intelligence and he appears to be fit for the task.

I do not think my perspective on Dubas is novel - Lewis Gross intentionally (and successfully) exploited Dubas' weaknesses earlier this year.

Although a minority opinion, I disagree with Chayka as a comparable. Chayka had developed an analytical scouting platform at a time when the analytical world was peaking. Phoenix's hiring of him was more for the tools than the guy himself. A worthwhile, inexpensive gamble.

How do you figure the agent won that? The leafs apparently wanted to sign Willie at 6.5 while Nylander held firm at 8.5 right up till the last half hour when finally Gross called and said let's sign and they signed at 6.9. I would say Dubas won that bout.

And how do you figure that he doesn't seem intelligent?You didnt give any reason.

 

[Gabriel426]

You are assuming only non contenders can sign him. What if a contending team move out salaries and OS Matthews? Or a team like the Canucks who Matthews is the differences between making the playoffs and lottery teams? Essientially you run the risk of 4 mid 1st rounders for Matthews. If the Leafs lose Matthews like that, that’s the biggest joke in Hockey.
You can hate his contract or for whatever reason his play but he is still a true Franchise C.

 

[thewave]

11.6x5 would translate to approximately how much over 8 (all 3 extra years being ufa years)?

Read the article. They project it to be between 13.5-14m x 8 for Matthews.

 

[Gabriel426]

11.6x5 would translate to approximately how much over 8 (all 3 extra years being ufa years)?

I agree the money and term is an overpayment for now but if Rantanen, Point, Laine and others sign to something similar, then it really won’t matter, bc that’s the market value for these elite RFAs.
The other thing is that 5 yrs is not bad at all bc Leafs can lock up Auston 3 yrs earlier and the cap hit for the 3rd contract will be lower in comparison since the cap kept going up.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Dubas just can't call a bluff

Well that would be true if it were, ya know, true.
But he called Willy's bluff and got him on the number he wanted.

 

[Spirit of 67]

How do you figure the agent won that? The leafs apparently wanted to sign Willie at 6.5 while Nylander held firm at 8.5 right up till the last half hour when finally Gross called and said let's sign and they signed at 6.9. I would say Dubas won that bout.

And how do you figure that he doesn't seem intelligent?You didnt give any reason.

The poster gave feelings. Isn't that enough?

 

[Spirit of 67]

I agree the money and term is an overpayment for now but if Rantanen, Point, Laine and others sign to something similar, then it really won’t matter, bc that’s the market value for these elite RFAs.
The other thing is that 5 yrs is not bad at all bc Leafs can lock up Auston 3 yrs earlier and the cap hit for the 3rd contract will be lower in comparison since the cap kept going up.

Also means he would be UFA in his early to mid 30's after his 3rd contract. Instead of mid to even late 30's. Less chance it could be burdensome later.

 

[Gabriel426]

Also means he would be UFA in his early to mid 30's after his 3rd contract. Instead of mid to even late 30's. Less chance it could be burdensome later.

Exactly

 

[Gabriel426]

Well that would be true if it were, ya know, true.
But he called Willy's bluff and got him on the number he wanted.

I think that’s a very good point that fans tend to overlook.
We don’t know anything about the negotiations and don’t know the inner workings of players and agents.
What we perceived as fair and market value might be completely wrong.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Well that would be true if it were, ya know, true.
But he called Willy's bluff and got him on the number he wanted.

It's quite a bit of spin to suggest that 7 mil x6 is the precise number Dubas wanted.

The fact that such spin is necessary shows just how bad these contracts are.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Read the article. They project it to be between 13.5-14m x 8 for Matthews.

What article?

But yeah... that seems like a dramatic overpayment to me...

 

[Mr Hockey]

What article?

But yeah... that seems like a dramatic overpayment to me...

The problem with the Auston Matthews contract

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The problem with the Auston Matthews contract

Why are leaf fans in such denial over it? I just don't understand...

 

[Mr Hockey]

Why are leaf fans in such denial over it? I just don't understand...

im about to lose it if Matthews was actually trashing the coach last game after signing that contract.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

im about to lose it if Matthews was actually trashing the coach last game after signing that contract.

I sort of agree with him on this one. I really do think Babcock should have been more creative and mixed things up more that game.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I sort of agree with him on this one. I really do think Babcock should have been more creative and mixed things up more that game.

Babcock has coached against the trap system for 20 years, he knows how to beat it, all coaches do... it comes down to players wanting to grind out a win against that system. The Leafs are not built to grind and win tight checking games, (lil soft)

anyways that does not point, he is showing how immature he is.

 

[member 147413]

People are arguing Matthews contract isn’t an overpayment? That’s news to me.

He’s now the 2nd highest paid player in the league and we only got him for 5 years!?? Smh

It’s a bad deal for the Leafs. We had to sign him, but I am disappointed with BOTH term and dollars.

 

[thewave]

Well that would be true if it were, ya know, true.
But he called Willy's bluff and got him on the number he wanted.

Dubas thought 7m AAV for Nylander was a good deal? That was the number he wanted? Are you an employee trying to make these deals seem like they are gems? They aren't gems at all you know, actually they are quite a bit in the other direction.

 

[Notsince67]

If we win the cup, people will say Babcock had nothing to do with it. Dubas nearly ruined winning the Cup by keeping Sparks. And we got lucky because our underlying stats were horrible.

I’ll bet money that those spicy hot takes will be on this board.

And if we get knocked out in the first round, it is because we didn't have enough skill?

 

[egd27]

Players sign for cap percentage at time of signing. In the Nylander threads, I tried bringing up Ehlers cap percentage for the year the contract STARTED (not the year he actually signed), and I was 100% shot down. Every single poster told me that that's not how it's done.

If it was, than Ehler's only signed to 7% of the cap (FAR lower than Nylander). But I was told time and again that that's not how it's done, so Ehlers signed at 8% of the cap.

Where is the consistency? Why do the arguments change around so often? I mean, you KNOW just how bad these overpayments are based on the ridiculous spin leafs fans are using to try and rationalize them.

And I'm not even getting into the fact that you think Matthews and McDavid are precisely equal comparables. Not even getting into it.

Because there are a couple of hundred different posters with different opinions on things.

What kind of consistency comes from that situation?

 

[Notsince67]

Matthews isn't remotely overpaid. What are you talking about?

he has a better contract than McDavid.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Because there are a couple of hundred different posters with different opinions on things.

What kind of consistency comes from that situation?

I've noticed when a good contract is signed, there is no inconsistency. Only when horrible contracts are signed to we start seeing a preposterous amount of hypocritical spin. Shows just how bad these contracts are.