TSN: Dreger on Andreas Johnsson's contract (hot take alert)

[Randy Randerson]

With Bracco, Moore, Korshkov and Mikheyev in the wings I wonder how much we really need to re-sign Johnsson. It would have obviously been useful to have a longer NHL evaluation to gauge ceiling but if the Marlies and free agents from Europe can produce these types of forwards it alleviates the pressure of having to overpay them.

Bracco is probably the only one with the same offensive updside, Johnsson was on a mid 50's pt pace from about halfway through the year onward, but I think your sentiment holds true that the Leafs can probably do just fine with replacement players if talks with Johnsson/Kapanen aren't productive

 

[aingefan]

I wonder if he’s also strategically overstocking on European free agents to undermine the little bargaining power Johnsson and Kappy may have had.

I wonder that myself.
Maybe he’s gambling that they play well and will take less on their subsequent rfa contracts given their smaller bodies of work.

 

[horner]

If the return is good maybe we should move him regardless of what he’s asking for. Send a message that not everyone is getting paid a premium and we’re not exactly lacking in small skill guys to play with Matthews.

Agreed

 

[GoldenGOOSE]

I am going to posit that Dubas/Shanahan are going to try and rectify the Nylander mistake and allow Johny and maybe even Kappy sit.

And go with Korshkov and this new Russian kid and maybe even Bracco.

It seems to be stacking up that way.

 

[TOGuy14]

stevie Y just accepted the GM position with the wings; Leafs are gonna be so screwed

I would bet that other teams in the atlantic division get better soon and have decent cap management than the Leafs do in 2 to 3 years

sabres (i think they have much better year next season than they did this year)
tampa
wings
habs
panthers (coach Q, panarin and bob rumored to be going there as well)

only team that is going to suck more than leafs is probably the sens

A lot of these are a stretch, at least for now.

Sabres have been offseason champions for a while now, with nothing to show for it in the reg season.

Wings have a new GM who has a lot of work ahead of him

Habs overachieved this past season and will have to deal with the cap cloggers of Alzner, Price and Weber moving forward

Panthers have a shot to move forward but let's be honest. Those Bob and Panarin contracts will be albatrosses in 3-4 years...

 

[aingefan]

I am going to posit that Dubas/Shanahan are going to try and rectify the Nylander mistake and allow Johny and maybe even Kappy sit.

And go with Korshkov and this new Russian kid and maybe even Bracco.

It seems to be stacking up that way.

Yup, looks like the middle class will most likely get the squeeze.

 

[Havoc]

I am going to posit that Dubas/Shanahan are going to try and rectify the Nylander mistake and allow Johny and maybe even Kappy sit.

And go with Korshkov and this new Russian kid and maybe even Bracco.

It seems to be stacking up that way.

It doesn't seem to be stacking that way at all.

Johnsson just put up 20 goals in the NHL and Kapanen is one of our best 2-way wingers.

If the goal is for Dubas to become a laughing stock by putting in a bunch of non-NHLers then sure, AJ and Kap are sent packing.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Yup, looks like the middle class will most likely get the squeeze.

No kidding.

Leafs overpaid ufa's like Tavares based on comparables.
Leafs overpaid rfa's like Nylander and Matthews based on comparables.

Someones going to have to take a hit, right?

 

[horner]

Kappy and Johnson
2.5 mil for 3 yrs
If they don't want to sign then move on.

We have players coming up through the system.

Trade them for a dman to play with Rielly .
A dman to play with Rielly is more important.

We have a group of forwards that will be here in 1 or2 yrs.

Moore has already made the big club
Bracco next yr.
Korshkov next yr.
Engvall next yr.

In 2 yrs.
Timashev
Brooks
Marchment
Carcone

Plus the euro signing

 

[ShaneFalco]

Consider that only three NHL forwards produced more 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes from Nov. 24 until the end of the season than Johnsson. Seriously. Their names were Nikita Kucherov, the likely Hart Trophy winner, Johnny Gaudreau and Patrick Kane, the 2015-16 Hart recipient.

In other words, Johnsson was the fourth-most productive 5-on-5 player in hockey for the final four-plus months of the regular season — slightly topping two other past MVPs, Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby. In about 692 minutes, over a 55-game stretch, the 24-year-old managed 34 5-on-5 points, which matched Mark Stone, Brayden Point, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Mark Scheifele, among others, for 23rd in the league. It was more than Tyler Seguin, Nathan MacKinnon, Claude Giroux, Elias Pettersson or Sebastian Aho managed — all of them playing more, and some of them many more, minutes.

Johnsson, meanwhile, was ninth among Leafs forwards in average ice time in that stretch.
It was big time. And again, Johnsson, who added four more points in the playoffs, was doing it in his first full season in the league.
But that doesn’t mean that it wasn’t without bumps in the road.

If they can, and yes there’s the cap crunch to consider, the Leafs should go big on a Johnsson deal because he’s an emerging player, a spunky, shifty threat who can score and create for others. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s become a more than viable long-term option for Matthews’ line, particularly since the organization’s strength at wing tilts heavily to the right.
Taking a big swing on Johnsson means betting on what he can achieve as he grows more comfortable in the league — especially in full-time duty with Matthews. Also a helpful power play presence, Johnsson was chugging along at a 27-goal, 60-point pace after that rough start. Getting that kind of production, or something close to it, at a bargain rate on a long-term deal would be a huge win for the organization.
Just look at how the Morgan Rielly contract — six years and a $5 million

Andreas Johnsson bet on himself. Can the Maple Leafs afford...

 

[horner]

Consider that only three NHL forwards produced more 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes from Nov. 24 until the end of the season than Johnsson. Seriously. Their names were Nikita Kucherov, the likely Hart Trophy winner, Johnny Gaudreau and Patrick Kane, the 2015-16 Hart recipient.

In other words, Johnsson was the fourth-most productive 5-on-5 player in hockey for the final four-plus months of the regular season — slightly topping two other past MVPs, Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby. In about 692 minutes, over a 55-game stretch, the 24-year-old managed 34 5-on-5 points, which matched Mark Stone, Brayden Point, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Mark Scheifele, among others, for 23rd in the league. It was more than Tyler Seguin, Nathan MacKinnon, Claude Giroux, Elias Pettersson or Sebastian Aho managed — all of them playing more, and some of them many more, minutes.

Johnsson, meanwhile, was ninth among Leafs forwards in average ice time in that stretch.
It was big time. And again, Johnsson, who added four more points in the playoffs, was doing it in his first full season in the league.
But that doesn’t mean that it wasn’t without bumps in the road.

If they can, and yes there’s the cap crunch to consider, the Leafs should go big on a Johnsson deal because he’s an emerging player, a spunky, shifty threat who can score and create for others. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s become a more than viable long-term option for Matthews’ line, particularly since the organization’s strength at wing tilts heavily to the right.
Taking a big swing on Johnsson means betting on what he can achieve as he grows more comfortable in the league — especially in full-time duty with Matthews. Also a helpful power play presence, Johnsson was chugging along at a 27-goal, 60-point pace after that rough start. Getting that kind of production, or something close to it, at a bargain rate on a long-term deal would be a huge win for the organization.
Just look at how the Morgan Rielly contract — six years and a $5 million

Andreas Johnsson bet on himself. Can the Maple Leafs afford...

As you said he had 4 or 5 months of good hockey.
2.5 for 2 or 3 years.
If not trade with the data.

 

[ShaneFalco]

As you said he had 4 or 5 months of good hockey.
2.5 for 2 or 3 years.
If not trade with the data.

Yeah this article was heavily in favour of signing him long term at a higher number than I'd be comfortable with. I'm concerned with his durability

 

[KuleminFan41]

No kidding.

Leafs overpaid ufa's like Tavares based on comparables.
Leafs overpaid rfa's like Nylander and Matthews based on comparables.

Someones going to have to take a hit, right?

It's not an over payment when its paying fair market value. Especially when Matthews and presumably Nylander will likely only get better. Tavares is one of the top centres in the league who went to UFA and signed for less than he would have gotten elsewhere and ended up with career high numbers last season . Sure, we'd all love Matthews and Nylander for 8 years at 5-6 million, but that isn't going to happen, people need to stop assuming players owe their teams these sweetheart deals that other players signed nearly a decade ago, especially when the cap can and probably will go up to around 100 million in a few years.

 

[Myopic]

What if some team puts in an offer of $2.85M/YR for 3 years? I don't think Johnsson will be a Leaf next year. The Leafs will get relative peanuts in terms of draft picks for AJ.

This is a good off-season for the weaker teams to poach the talent ridden teams who have RFA's.

 

[BlueForever75]

The Leafs will need to be up front with both Johnsson and Kapanen. These are the numbers we can sign you for. We will not go above and beyond them. They both be given a deadline of June 30th to accept the offers. If they don't take them, let them know they will be dealt to the highest bidder.

Both Johnsson and Kapanen do not control where they go. They can decide if money is more important then playing with a perennial contender. But it would really suck being dealt to a team like Vancouver, Ottawa, Arizona or even Columbus after they lose all of their top end talent this off season.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It's not an over payment when its paying fair market value. Especially when Matthews and presumably Nylander will likely only get better. Tavares is one of the top centres in the league who went to UFA and signed for less than he would have gotten elsewhere and ended up with career high numbers last season . Sure, we'd all love Matthews and Nylander for 8 years at 5-6 million, but that isn't going to happen, people need to stop assuming players owe their teams these sweetheart deals that other players signed nearly a decade ago, especially when the cap can and probably will go up to around 100 million in a few years.

Every player coming off their elc are "likely to get better". That is taken into consideration already when looking at comparable players and their contracts. Ditto with "the cap is going up". It is for all the comparable player contracts as well. So these arguments make absolutely no sense when we're looking at comparable players of the same age who signed MUCH better deals for the team.

And Matthews and Nylander are NOT signed at fair market value. There are two parts of the negotiation. Dubas is trying his best to get the players signed at a good deal for the team. And the players agents are trying their best to get every last penny they can for their player. The agents are taking rookie Dubas to the cleaners. Some gm's suck. Some agents suck. It's not just that some players "choose to sign sweetheart deals, and others don't." If that were the case, gm's wouldn't even be needed. They would just give players blank cheques and hope they sign "sweetheart deals".

You know how some rookie players suck their first year, but can work on their mistakes and grow to be great? Maybe that can happen with Dubas as gm. Maybe. But THIS year (his rookie year) he's been absolute shit. And this is arguably the most important year for a maple leaf gm in modern Maple Leaf history. What a great f***ing time for a rookie gm, eh?

 

[member 262271]

Read the thread title, didn’t read the first post, posting here to say stop listening to these buffoons, you’ll enjoy next season a lot more.

 

[Trapper]

No kidding.

Leafs overpaid ufa's like Tavares based on comparables.
Leafs overpaid rfa's like Nylander and Matthews based on comparables.

Someones going to have to take a hit, right?[/QUOTE]
Yes. T-E-A-M. A few individuals will have to be the team.

 

[kb]

Couldn't have said it better myself.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yeah this article was heavily in favour of signing him long term at a higher number than I'd be comfortable with. I'm concerned with his durability

My biggest concern with AJ is his durability too. Small guy who is pretty fearless, takes a lot of big hits and has already a couple of injuries I think

 

[hotpaws]

The Leafs will need to be up front with both Johnsson and Kapanen. These are the numbers we can sign you for. We will not go above and beyond them. They both be given a deadline of June 30th to accept the offers. If they don't take them, let them know they will be dealt to the highest bidder.

Both Johnsson and Kapanen do not control where they go. They can decide if money is more important then playing with a perennial contender. But it would really suck being dealt to a team like Vancouver, Ottawa, Arizona or even Columbus after they lose all of their top end talent this off season.

bringing out the violins didn't work with MNM and was a stupid strategy to begin with

the players are well aware we're capped out and Dubas should already know what it'll take to sign them so he either can fit them in the cap or he should be working the phones to arrange a deal before July 1st , if they aren't either signed or traded by this date and they sign an offer sheet the Dube should be shown the door

 

[paulhiggins]

Decision should be well before July 1. Leafs will deal Zaitsev before July 1 and they don't want the other (s) to see the cap room saved in the Zaitsev trade, otherwise they'd want some of it. Especially if one of them goes with Zaitsev.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Decision should be well before July 1. Leafs will deal Zaitsev before July 1 and they don't want the other (s) to see the cap room saved in the Zaitsev trade, otherwise they'd want some of it. Especially if one of them goes with Zaitsev.

You say this like dealing Zaitsev (his contract) is an easy thing. Any deal involving Z will involve either taking back a bad contract, or attaching a player/pick of value.

 

[kb]

You say this like dealing Zaitsev (his contract) is an easy thing. Any deal involving Z will involve either taking back a bad contract, or attaching a player/pick of value.

Absolutely not. He's a RD who logs PK time and faces tough opposition. And he can skate. He looked fine with Muzzin. I'm certain there will be a market for him (should the wish to move him) without having to tack on assets.

Marleau is the issue. Move him, and the cap issues all but disappear.

 

[Lauro]

I don't think they'll trade our only reliable RD. He was good to great in the playoffs paired with Muzzin. Couldn't care less about his passing issues during the regular season.

Regarding Johnsson and Kapanen I'd play hardball too. Make them an offer comparable to the one Hyman got and trade them if they don't want to be part of the Leafs contending years.