TSN: Dreger on Andreas Johnsson's contract (hot take alert)

[Papi 4 Hart]

Correct me if I am wrong but Johnsson had 43 points in 73 games playing mostly with Auston Matthews. Away from him... not so much.

Kasperi Kapanen was pretty much the same.

Auston Matthews is propping up these players and getting them paid. Much like Tavares could actually finish and is getting Marner a nice pay cheque.

We need to adopt the Chicago model and sell high instead of signing bad contracts. If they do not want to take team friendly deals and continue to play with the best possible center next year than we cant over value them and have the next man up mentality instead (Bracco, Korshkov, etc.)

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Correct me if I am wrong but Johnsson had 43 points in 73 games playing mostly with Auston Matthews. Away from him... not so much.

Kasperi Kapanen was pretty much the same.

Auston Matthews is propping up these players and getting them paid. Much like Tavares could actually finish and is getting Marner a nice pay cheque.

We need to adopt the Chicago model and sell high instead of signing bad contracts. If they do not want to take team friendly deals and continue to play with the best possible center next year than we cant over value them and have the next man up mentality instead (Bracco, Korshkov, etc.)

AJ played about half the season with Matthews and then the rest mainly in the bottom 6.

He actually got 5 ES points playing with brown and Lindholm who he spent 15.3% of his total ES shifts with. He got 7 ES points with Matthews and Nylander who he spent 20.6% of his time with. Finally his most common line was with Matthews and Kap for 25.2% of his toi and put up 10 ES points. The rest of his ES points (6) were primarily done in the bottom 6.

Seems to produce decently well on his own for a rookie.

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

AJ played about half the season with Matthews and then the rest mainly in the bottom 6.

He actually got 5 ES points playing with brown and Lindholm who he spent 15.3% of his total ES shifts with. He got 7 ES points with Matthews and Nylander who he spent 20.6% of his time with. Finally his most common line was with Matthews and Kap for 25.2% of his toi and put up 10 ES points. The rest of his ES points (6) were primarily done in the bottom 6.

Seems to produce decently well on his own for a rookie.

So as a 24 year old "rookie" he had 17 ES points with Matthews (45% of time) and 11 without (55% of time). If he did not spend that time with Matthews and the remainder of scoring on powerplay he is not looking at a 3 million dollar contract. More likely he bets on himself again with a 1.8-2 million dollar contract over 2-3 years.

I would use this as my biggest bargaining chip. Heck if I am his agent I tell him to resign at a cap friendly short term deal and continue to play with Matthews than risk getting traded to a team where he may play with a less talented player.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

So as a 24 year old "rookie" he had 17 ES points with Matthews (45% of time) and 11 without (55% of time). If he did not spend that time with Matthews and the remainder of scoring on powerplay he is not looking at a 3 million dollar contract. More likely he bets on himself again with a 1.8-2 million dollar contract over 2-3 years.

I would use this as my biggest bargaining chip. Heck if I am his agent I tell him to resign at a cap friendly short term deal and continue to play with Matthews than risk getting traded to a team where he may play with a less talented player.

You need to also look at the fact that when a player plays in the top 6 thy are expected to put up more points/min becaus they are playing with better players. The fact he can produce decently in the bottom 6 on his own and can move up and play with Matthews and produce even more is a positive not a negative.

That being said, I agree he shouldn't see over 3 million on a bridge. It will be the hill dubas needs to be willing to die on. I.e. not overpaying non core pieces like Kap and AJ.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Every player coming off their elc are "likely to get better". That is taken into consideration already when looking at comparable players and their contracts. Ditto with "the cap is going up". It is for all the comparable player contracts as well. So these arguments make absolutely no sense when we're looking at comparable players of the same age who signed MUCH better deals for the team.

And Matthews and Nylander are NOT signed at fair market value. There are two parts of the negotiation. Dubas is trying his best to get the players signed at a good deal for the team. And the players agents are trying their best to get every last penny they can for their player. The agents are taking rookie Dubas to the cleaners. Some gm's suck. Some agents suck. It's not just that some players "choose to sign sweetheart deals, and others don't." If that were the case, gm's wouldn't even be needed. They would just give players blank cheques and hope they sign "sweetheart deals".

You know how some rookie players suck their first year, but can work on their mistakes and grow to be great? Maybe that can happen with Dubas as gm. Maybe. But THIS year (his rookie year) he's been absolute ****. And this is arguably the most important year for a maple leaf gm in modern Maple Leaf history. What a great ****ing time for a rookie gm, eh?

My point is that not every player coming off their ELC is going to make 7 million per season, let alone be worth it. Nylander, regardless of what you believe, is worth that much and likely will make that price tag look good in a few seasons when he (likely) continues to get better. Also, you can't compare contracts signed today to contracts signed several years prior, it doesn't work that way regardless of how much you complain about those contracts.

Matthews and Nylander contracts were absolutely fair market value. if not then they were extremely close to the point that you're complaining about thousands of dollars and not millions between them. You have to get rid of this Utopian belief that all these great players are goign to sign deals that are undervalued and will be a steal for the Maple Leafs. This isn't a video game, this isn't a fantasy land where you can force players to sign for whatever you like . The cap going up means there will be more money to go around and to suggest that players shouldn't want to get at least what they're worth, is rather ridiculous. Just because some other players signed undervalued contracts, does not mean everyone does, nor does it mean ours have an obligation to you, to do so. Every team is different

Dubas has been fine as GM in his first season and it's not as if hasn't been involved with the Leafs upper management for you know the previous 4 years or anything. All this doom and gloom crap is embarrassing. Especially when the playoffs haven't even finished, let alone the draft. There's plenty of time left to see what Dubas does with this roster. Acting like the Leafs window was slammed shut is quite ridiculous. As for bad contracts? I'm old enough to remember that old veteran GM Lou Lamoriello signing Matt Martin for 4 years at 2.5 million per, I remember him signing Roman Polak for 2.25m , I remember him signing Zaitsev for 4.5 m for 6 years or Patrick Marleau for over 6 million for 3 years, which is currently hurting Kyle Dubas' maneuverability to fit players under the cap. It's been 1 season, calm the hell down.

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

You need to also look at the fact that when a player plays in the top 6 thy are expected to put up more points/min becaus they are playing with better players. The fact he can produce decently in the bottom 6 on his own and can move up and play with Matthews and produce even more is a positive not a negative.

That being said, I agree he shouldn't see over 3 million on a bridge. It will be the hill dubas needs to be willing to die on. I.e. not overpaying non core pieces like Kap and AJ.

I agree with you completely with his production away from top 6.

However, most players will start in bottom 6 for first few years and prove themselves over a longer sample size before they play on the first line. We thrust him into that position almost immediately.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I agree with you completely with his production away from top 6.

However, most players will start in bottom 6 for first few years and prove themselves over a longer sample size before they play on the first line. We thrust him into that position almost immediately.

The leafs lack of left wing depth is largely why and I would say he played on the 2nd line with Matthews not the 1st. The 1st line this past year was the Hyman, JT and Marner line.

 

[Menzinger]

You need to also look at the fact that when a player plays in the top 6 thy are expected to put up more points/min becaus they are playing with better players. The fact he can produce decently in the bottom 6 on his own and can move up and play with Matthews and produce even more is a positive not a negative.

That being said, I agree he shouldn't see over 3 million on a bridge. It will be the hill dubas needs to be willing to die on. I.e. not overpaying non core pieces like Kap and AJ.

Based on the rumored earlier contract offer to AJ looks like Dubas and his guys knows what type of salary a guy like him should get.

 

[Menzinger]

Consider that only three NHL forwards produced more 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes from Nov. 24 until the end of the season than Johnsson. Seriously. Their names were Nikita Kucherov, the likely Hart Trophy winner, Johnny Gaudreau and Patrick Kane, the 2015-16 Hart recipient.

In other words, Johnsson was the fourth-most productive 5-on-5 player in hockey for the final four-plus months of the regular season — slightly topping two other past MVPs, Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby. In about 692 minutes, over a 55-game stretch, the 24-year-old managed 34 5-on-5 points, which matched Mark Stone, Brayden Point, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Mark Scheifele, among others, for 23rd in the league. It was more than Tyler Seguin, Nathan MacKinnon, Claude Giroux, Elias Pettersson or Sebastian Aho managed — all of them playing more, and some of them many more, minutes.

Johnsson, meanwhile, was ninth among Leafs forwards in average ice time in that stretch.
It was big time. And again, Johnsson, who added four more points in the playoffs, was doing it in his first full season in the league.
But that doesn’t mean that it wasn’t without bumps in the road.

If they can, and yes there’s the cap crunch to consider, the Leafs should go big on a Johnsson deal because he’s an emerging player, a spunky, shifty threat who can score and create for others. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s become a more than viable long-term option for Matthews’ line, particularly since the organization’s strength at wing tilts heavily to the right.
Taking a big swing on Johnsson means betting on what he can achieve as he grows more comfortable in the league — especially in full-time duty with Matthews. Also a helpful power play presence, Johnsson was chugging along at a 27-goal, 60-point pace after that rough start. Getting that kind of production, or something close to it, at a bargain rate on a long-term deal would be a huge win for the organization.
Just look at how the Morgan Rielly contract — six years and a $5 million

Andreas Johnsson bet on himself. Can the Maple Leafs afford...

Hes a good player that the Leafs would ideally keep.

But hes also 24, has like 50 less career NHL games than another rookie in Kapanen and had an inflated sh% for s chunk of the season.

Need to be very careful with the contract

 

[ShaneFalco]

Hes a good player that the Leafs would ideally keep.

But hes also 24, has like 50 less career NHL games than another rookie in Kapanen and had an inflated sh% for s chunk of the season.

Need to be very careful with the contract

Totally agree
He's probably going to price himself out

 

[Menzinger]

Totally agree
He's probably going to price himself out

And it's a pity if that happens but sonbe it, it's just the business of the league.

These depth guys only have the right value when they're in the right contract. Once you start approaching overpayments their value becomes a burden in most cases

 

[Rare Jewel]

Hes a good player that the Leafs would ideally keep.

But hes also 24, has like 50 less career NHL games than another rookie in Kapanen and had an inflated sh% for s chunk of the season.

Need to be very careful with the contract

They need to be careful with all their contracts now.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

My point is that not every player coming off their ELC is going to make 7 million per season, let alone be worth it. Nylander, regardless of what you believe, is worth that much and likely will make that price tag look good in a few seasons when he (likely) continues to get better. Also, you can't compare contracts signed today to contracts signed several years prior, it doesn't work that way regardless of how much you complain about those contracts.

Matthews and Nylander contracts were absolutely fair market value. if not then they were extremely close to the point that you're complaining about thousands of dollars and not millions between them. You have to get rid of this Utopian belief that all these great players are goign to sign deals that are undervalued and will be a steal for the Maple Leafs. This isn't a video game, this isn't a fantasy land where you can force players to sign for whatever you like . The cap going up means there will be more money to go around and to suggest that players shouldn't want to get at least what they're worth, is rather ridiculous. Just because some other players signed undervalued contracts, does not mean everyone does, nor does it mean ours have an obligation to you, to do so. Every team is different

Dubas has been fine as GM in his first season and it's not as if hasn't been involved with the Leafs upper management for you know the previous 4 years or anything. All this doom and gloom crap is embarrassing. Especially when the playoffs haven't even finished, let alone the draft. There's plenty of time left to see what Dubas does with this roster. Acting like the Leafs window was slammed shut is quite ridiculous. As for bad contracts? I'm old enough to remember that old veteran GM Lou Lamoriello signing Matt Martin for 4 years at 2.5 million per, I remember him signing Roman Polak for 2.25m , I remember him signing Zaitsev for 4.5 m for 6 years or Patrick Marleau for over 6 million for 3 years, which is currently hurting Kyle Dubas' maneuverability to fit players under the cap. It's been 1 season, calm the hell down.

In regard to Nylander, I would say that Ehlers was his best comparable. Ehlers signed for an extra season, 2 more ufa years, and isn’t frontloaded or paid in signing bonuses in the slightest (Nylander makes half his 6 year contract after SEVEN MONTHS and more than half in signing bonuses). Nylander signed a similar cap percentage as David f***ing Pastrnak, with one less ufa year. There is NO WAY Nylander will be at his level. It is NOT market value. It’s a dramatic overpayment.

Matthews was UNDER a ppg over his elc. Any other player that signed in the 15% range coming off their elc was a generational best of the best 1.25 ppg type of player. Matthews is dramatically overpaid... like... at a flat out unprecedented level. I’ve actually never really seen ANYBODY make the claim that Matthews (including term) was fair market. The debate is how dramatically he’s overpaid. Almost nobody other than you thinks that was a good contract.

The problem is that you’ve taken Dubas out of the equation. Apparently there is no line between a rookie gm overpaying young players and “a utopian video game”. Like, what on earth are you talking about? Gm’s are a very real thing. They exist. Some are better than others. Ours is a rookie, and he’s doing a shit job.

Overpaying all of your young players isn’t the hopes that “they’ll get better” and that it won’t matter because “the cap is going up” is how you get stuck with players like Zaitsev.

The only part of your argument that made sense is when you said maybe Dubas will get better and improve the team. Sure. Maybe he will. But I’m assessing the ACTUAL mistakes/overpayments he’s made as a rookie so far.

 

[Mess]

AJ and Kapanen can't really be signed until Marner is signed otherwise your just asking for an offersheet, because of limited cap space to match.

 

[moon111]

The value of having a star center is putting blah players with them and try turning them into useful assets.
How much do we think Kapanen would of improved on his two assists if he didn't play with maybe the
best sniper there's ever been on center? Johnsson? 0.59 points per game playing with Matthews?
What if we stuck either of these wingers with a league average center? You wouldn't have much to show
for it. I would seriously consider trading them if their demands are too high. Could trade them for draft
picks and bring up Marlies. Sign Marner, talent level and prospect/draft picks don't go down either.

 

[OB34KNH]

If I was Dubas I would look at dealing Kap at this point for that top 4 RD.

Leafs just have such great depth on the right wing with even more in the pipeline.

I think Kap is a great player but you gotta give to get so I would see what Kap+Propsect or two could return.

Kapanen doesn't net us a TOP4D.
Trust me, other teams have scouts as well, Kapanen is basically as valuable as Hyman. He has better hands and a shot than Hyman, but, Hyman is superior defensively and along the forcheck + boards.

Kapanen played the playoffs and the regular season with Matthews. He even got PP2 time (babcock loves to give mins to the PP2). He produced a WHOPPING ~40 some points. Really? You're playing with an elite 5v5 goal scoring center and that's all you rack up?
Let's be real, Kapanen's ceiling is Michael Grabner.

Once again, other teams' scouts scout each and every player on other teams who they seek to trade for. They know about Kapanen's deficiencies all too well.

Bob McKenzie was right when the Leafs traded for Kapanen in the Kessel trade, he said "As an NHLer, Kapanen's ceiling is aspeedy, checking 3rd Liner.". Kapanen looks out of place playing with Matthews, he has tunnel vision, ZERO OFFENSIVE creativity, he's like a deer in headlights entrying into the zone --- he either shoots the puck and misses by 10 feet ( resulting in an odd man rush the other way) or dumps it in and never retrieves the puck due to his lack of physical play.

Hyman at times has better offensive creativity than Kapanen on odd man rushes, he makes up for his lack of puck skills with determination and smarts (i.e. faking the D and passing it with his skates to JT/Marner, or, taking out the D during a 3 on 2, or, getting free from the D for an open net tap-in)

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

AJ and Kapanen can't really be signed until Marner is signed otherwise your just asking for an offersheet, because of limited cap space to match.

You can go 10% over the cap in the summer if need be, and I imagine we'll take full advantage of offseason LTIR as well. We'll be fine.

If teams offer sheet, sign the contract, then trade him to that teams closest rival.

 

[hotpaws]

You can go 10% over the cap in the summer if need be, and I imagine we'll take full advantage of offseason LTIR as well. We'll be fine.

If teams offer sheet, sign the contract, then trade him to that teams closest rival.

i'm pretty you can't trade a player that's signed an offer sheet for a year

Dubas needs to have Kap/Johnson either signed or traded by July 1st , they'd be a much easier target to poach then MM .

 

[Dekes For Days]

All these people with stupid hot takes about Dubas would have been the first to vilify him if he hadn't made these moves. All of you would have gone on about wasting the last year of the ELCs, and how a rookie GM can't get the job done. At what point does it become the player's fault? Dubas played hardball and literally waited until the last minutes before the deadline. Easy to make comments about Nylander now but everybody viewed him as a core piece that had to be resigned. If he had been traded over a few hundred k, people would have called for his head.

Then he signs Matthews and everybody is up in arms, but what choice does he have? He's their best player, the best player they've had in a long time, and one of the best goalscorers in the league at the most important position. He admitted he paid a premium because he's a center and a premium because he's one of the best goalscorers in the league. Yet people suddenly assume he's going to overpay everybody else without those qualifications for some reason, and Shanahan and all of the people who literally designed the cap were all caught off guard and have zero plans to fit these cap hits into their structure? I assume you all would have been fine with letting Matthews go past July 1st or trading him if he didn't agree to Toronto's offer? Because I'm hearing a lot of complaining about the outcome without a lot of realistic takes on alternatives.

What you all really are is mad at the bad luck the Leafs seem cursed with. That we finally have good players, but their contracts are due right before the lockout and expansion and new media deals and so the financial landscape of the league (especially at the top) is in flux. That we are neutered by the cap, while other teams that we keep alive in our division get massive advantages. That our players care most about getting their top dollar now, instead of what's good for the team (and ultimately themselves long-term). That the media has over-inflated and over-hyped the reality of these players way too early, because we have the stupidest media in the sports world. You're mad at the players. You're mad that they're not what you imagined, and they don't care about the well-being of the team as much as you, a fan. But you're supposed to like them and cheer for them...

So attack the GM, who has done the best with what he has to work with.

 

[rumman]

All these people with stupid hot takes about Dubas would have been the first to vilify him if he hadn't made these moves. All of you would have gone on about wasting the last year of the ELCs, and how a rookie GM can't get the job done. At what point does it become the player's fault? Dubas played hardball and literally waited until the last minutes before the deadline. Easy to make comments about Nylander now but everybody viewed him as a core piece that had to be resigned. If he had been traded over a few hundred k, people would have called for his head.

Then he signs Matthews and everybody is up in arms, but what choice does he have? He's their best player, the best player they've had in a long time, and one of the best goalscorers in the league at the most important position. He admitted he paid a premium because he's a center and a premium because he's one of the best goalscorers in the league. Yet people suddenly assume he's going to overpay everybody else without those qualifications for some reason, and Shanahan and all of the people who literally designed the cap were all caught off guard and have zero plans to fit these cap hits into their structure? I assume you all would have been fine with letting Matthews go past July 1st or trading him if he didn't agree to Toronto's offer? Because I'm hearing a lot of complaining about the outcome without a lot of realistic takes on alternatives.

What you all really are is mad at the bad luck the Leafs seem cursed with. That we finally have good players, but their contracts are due right before the lockout and expansion and new media deals and so the financial landscape of the league (especially at the top) is in flux. That we are neutered by the cap, while other teams that we keep alive in our division get massive advantages. That our players care most about getting their top dollar now, instead of what's good for the team (and ultimately themselves long-term). That the media has over-inflated and over-hyped the reality of these players way too early, because we have the stupidest media in the sports world. You're mad at the players. You're mad that they're not what you imagined, and they don't care about the well-being of the team as much as you, a fan. But you're supposed to like them and cheer for them...

So attack the GM, who has done the best with what he has to work with.

if Dubas held firm on Nylander, then Mathews wouldn't have also got over paid or under termed however you look at it he got the better of the GM. I expect Kappy and Johnsson to be seeking a bit more than they would of if these contracts were handled properly, the trickle down effect is real and we haven't even touched on the UFA's. For a guy with the reputation of being a young genius I see several mistakes and it's only ging to get harder this season, unless the plan is hoping for the best until cap relief comes in the 2020/2021 season.

 

[FraumBallard]

All these people with stupid hot takes about Dubas would have been the first to vilify him if he hadn't made these moves. All of you would have gone on about wasting the last year of the ELCs, and how a rookie GM can't get the job done. At what point does it become the player's fault? Dubas played hardball and literally waited until the last minutes before the deadline. Easy to make comments about Nylander now but everybody viewed him as a core piece that had to be resigned. If he had been traded over a few hundred k, people would have called for his head.

Then he signs Matthews and everybody is up in arms, but what choice does he have? He's their best player, the best player they've had in a long time, and one of the best goalscorers in the league at the most important position. He admitted he paid a premium because he's a center and a premium because he's one of the best goalscorers in the league. Yet people suddenly assume he's going to overpay everybody else without those qualifications for some reason, and Shanahan and all of the people who literally designed the cap were all caught off guard and have zero plans to fit these cap hits into their structure? I assume you all would have been fine with letting Matthews go past July 1st or trading him if he didn't agree to Toronto's offer? Because I'm hearing a lot of complaining about the outcome without a lot of realistic takes on alternatives.

What you all really are is mad at the bad luck the Leafs seem cursed with. That we finally have good players, but their contracts are due right before the lockout and expansion and new media deals and so the financial landscape of the league (especially at the top) is in flux. That we are neutered by the cap, while other teams that we keep alive in our division get massive advantages. That our players care most about getting their top dollar now, instead of what's good for the team (and ultimately themselves long-term). That the media has over-inflated and over-hyped the reality of these players way too early, because we have the stupidest media in the sports world. You're mad at the players. You're mad that they're not what you imagined, and they don't care about the well-being of the team as much as you, a fan. But you're supposed to like them and cheer for them...

So attack the GM, who has done the best with what he has to work with.

Actually.
I'm pissed because we have great talent and a HORRIBLE gm.

 

[Trapper]

AJ and Kapanen can't really be signed until Marner is signed otherwise your just asking for an offersheet, because of limited cap space to match.

Marner is the priority for sure.
As for who goes, I kind of agree with Button on this one. When you go down our left and right side, there is a greater pool of prospects for the right.

https://www.tsn.ca/video/button-outlines-what-assets-the-leafs-have-that-could-be-traded~1679717

 

[socko]

AJ and Kapanen can't really be signed until Marner is signed otherwise your just asking for an offersheet, because of limited cap space to match.

Neither will sign unless they really love Toronto until they see what they can get in RFA status. Why take $2 when you can get $4. I sure wouldn't.

 

[Trapper]

Neither will sign unless they really love Toronto until they see what they can get in RFA status. Why take $2 when you can get $4. I sure wouldn't.

We will see how it plays out.
Marner is tops and then our priority should be RHD.
I would move Nylander but since that doesn’t seem to be an option, perhaps Kadri or a Kapanen/Dermott package could get us what we need.
Why Dermott? I like him but when you look at the left side:
Rielly
Muzzin
Rosen
Sandin

Is fine depth. If I could turn a deal into a bonafide 22 minute/night guy for Rielly, I do it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

if Dubas held firm on Nylander, then Mathews wouldn't have also got over paid or under termed however you look at it he got the better of the GM.

That's your uninformed opinion based on nothing, and you know that everybody would have destroyed Dubas even more and you yourself would have had a million things to complain about. If anything, the whole Nylander stuff could have just as easily pushed Matthews towards signing a contract because he saw that this management was willing to go to the very last minute to get what they needed for the team, and he saw how destructive to his career missing time at this age could be.

Fact is, Matthews could essentially demand whatever he wanted. How exactly does Nylander getting paid or not affect what Matthews wants? It doesn't; they are on completely different levels. You're applying a false narrative to a theoretical scenario with nothing to support it, because you don't like the end result and your fandom can't bring you to blame the real reason for your unhappiness, the player.

I expect Kappy and Johnsson to be seeking a bit more than they would of if these contracts were handled properly

Based on what? You can make whatever incorrect argument you want about Matthews and Nylander, but they are core pieces and have different levels of leverage and importance to the team. There has not been a single support player that Dubas has overpaid. In fact, I'm pretty sure other than those two, and Tavares, who took a multi-million dollar per year discount after Dubas' impressive presentation, all of his signings have essentially been league minimum.

Based on the reported numbers that the Leafs have on Kapanen and Johnsson, they understand that you pay your core pieces, even if it's a little more than you want, and that lets you stand strong on the supporting pieces.

the trickle down effect is real and we haven't even touched on the UFA's.

Yeah, you're right. That trickle down effect of Tavares, a star player with all the options in the world, taking less money to play in Toronto, really brought down the cost of Matthews and Nylander and Marner, right?