Player Discussion Drake Batherson (RW)

[coladin]

Colin White money. A little over paid, but I think it will work itself out in the long run. He is maddeningly inconsistent, and is prone to horrific neutral zone giveaways, which can be coached out of his game, but his upside is fierce

 

[Korpse]

Before we impart sainthood on him.

he is 22, will be 23 in 9 days. While young in life's sense, it is middle age in the modern game.
23 points in 40 games..translates to 47 points in 82 games. That would have ranked him in the 120-130 zone in the 18/19 season. (Which is where he is this year).
his plus/minus is -14..on a very weak team, so he can be forgiven

his last 15 games (March 4 to Feb 7th): 5 points, 3 goals, (-)9 +/-. Extrapolate those numbers and it does not look pretty!

While his productivity has improved this season, it is only marginally better than his 18/19 and 20/21 seasons.

These "young Sens" are regressing in the second half of a shortened season. The team's loses are "prettier", far less 7-1 blow outs, but there are just as many as in the first 20 games. And the offensive productivity for many of the young guys has dipped...Norris aside.

Games played are a better indicator than age. Usually forwards breakout and are close to their peak around that 200-300 GP mark regardless of age.

Nathan Mackinnon is probably my favorite example of this. First 4 season's, 300 GP career high in a season to that point was 63 points and 24 goals as a rookie, rest of the season's were around 50 point pace. He's been a 35-40 goal and 90-100 point player in the 3 seasons that followed.

I like Mark Stone as an example in this case, because of familiarity and similar career path to this point. Mark Stone had 22 points in 40 games to start his first full season. At the age of 25 Mark stone had completed 3 full seasons and 249 games. His career high was 64 as a rookie and had 187 points. In the following 237 games he had 239 points.

This isn't to say that Drake Batherson is going to be as good as either player, it's just a way of saying chill the f*** out.

 

[dumbdick]

If you go bridge on guys you identify as core you wind up paying high dollars for their declining years. Let’s use Batherson as an example. You sign him for 3 years at 3M which is easily market value. If he becomes a 60-65 point player he will need over 7M until he is 34. Basically bridging a player forces a trade or bad value contract if the player progresses normally. I like identifying core piece and locking them up until they are 29-30 years old.

Let me explain the math on this.

If you sign a prospect like Drake to a long term deal, it's like flipping a coin.

If it comes up heads, you win a free sandwich.

If it comes up tails, someone shoots your mom in the face.

 

[Sweatred]

Let me explain the math on this.

If you sign a prospect like Drake to a long term deal, it's like flipping a coin.

If it comes up heads, you win a free sandwich.

If it comes up tails, someone shoots your mom in the face.

What are the chances he outperforms a $5 million AAV type deal ? I don’t think the math is 50/50 ... Players only take those if they think it’s in their favour and most are.

No draw back to a 1-2 year deal. If he becomes a $6 or 8 million winger he can have it down the road.

The Calgary contracts scare me - Those guys are not playing great and they don’t have a lot of value around the league at their cap hits.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Batherson set Tierney up for 2 grade A looks in the slot at the hashmarks last game

 

[PlayOn]

I would take a risk and sign him long-term. You need to pay your stars like Chabot, Tkachuk, and Stutzle - gotta get some bargains on your important but not star players like Norris, Batherson, Zub. It can always blow up but at some point you have to make calculated risks - these are better investments than guys like Tierney, Zaitsev, Dadonov, Murray etc. If they pan out it will go a long way in helping us contend.

 

[GCK]

I would take a risk and sign him long-term. You need to pay your stars like Chabot, Tkachuk, and Stutzle - gotta get some bargains on your important but not star players like Norris, Batherson, Zub. It can always blow up but at some point you have to make calculated risks - these are better investments than guys like Tierney, Zaitsev, Dadonov, Murray etc. If they pan out it will go a long way in helping us contend.

Disagree on Dadanov 3 year term was nice and 5M AAV is fine as well. Some fans seem to not get the current salaries players get. Getting a 60 point scorer will cost well over 6M.

 

[Beech]

The basic reality is this is the first season we've relied primarily on kids as the core players of this club. Last season, we had guys like Pageau, Ennis and Namestnikov in our top 6. This season, they've been replaced by kids like Batherson(22), Stutzle(19), and Norris(20).

The fact of the matter is, kids are always going to be inconsistent and go though deeper cold streaks. It's been a fact since the beginning of hockey. In the grander scheme of the rebuild, it's absolutely not troubling that they've gone cold the last few weeks. That's why we have vets like Brown, Dadonov, and Anisimov who have picked up some of the slack these last few weeks.

I certainly hope you are right and a switch turns on..there are 4-5 guys that had better hit that switch at the same time. Tkachuk ...this will be season 3 of nearly identical stats. ~ 45-48 points, not exactly Hart trophy candidacy!!

 

[PlayOn]

Disagree on Dadanov 3 year term was nice and 5M AAV is fine as well. Some fans seem to not get the current salaries players get. Getting a 60 point scorer will cost well over 6M.

Not really concerned about Dadonov per say, just would have preferred to spend the money on a D over a forward if given the choice.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Not really concerned about Dadonov per say, just would have preferred to spend the money on a D over a forward if given the choice.

Would have been the smart thing to do imo

 

[Sweatred]

Disagree on Dadanov 3 year term was nice and 5M AAV is fine as well. Some fans seem to not get the current salaries players get. Getting a 60 point scorer will cost well over 6M.

But most 40 pts players want ~$5 off a career year ... it’s risky giving replaceable 40pt players $5million ... I’d gladly give 60 pt players $6M+... and roll the dice/dumpster dive on guys that can get 30+ pts at $1+ Who play their a$$ off for their next contract.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

There's another factor at play here. There's a real drawback to giving kids too much money too soon. It's easy for them to let their foot off the gas and feel like they've "made it" and lose a bit of edge. We see it over and over and over across the league. Sticking with a realistic 2-3 year bridge gives these kids another reason to keep hustling and aiming for that big contract down the road.

Just look at Toronto. One kids gets a big check, then they all think they deserve big checks (and get them)....and now they fold as soon as the playoffs hit and the game gets a lot harder. Giving the kids everything too easily never seems to work.

Now, I like the character of our kids, and I do think they wouldn't screw the pooch anywhere nearly as bad as the spoiled brats in Toronto....but we can't afford even a slight dip in performance.

 

[Sweatred]

Just look at Toronto. One kids gets a big check, then they all think they deserve big checks (and get them)....and now they fold as soon as the playoffs hit and the game gets a lot harder. Giving the kids everything too easily never seems to work.
.

Just look at Ottawa - we have the Chabot at $8 and White and $4.75 benchmarks set... all these guys like Bath are going to see themselves at or in between those goal posts.

 

[dumbdick]

Just look at Ottawa - we have the Chabot at $8 and White and $4.75 benchmarks set... all these guys like Bath are going to see themselves at or in between those goal posts.

I think everybody knows White isn't a valid comparable.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Disagree on Dadanov 3 year term was nice and 5M AAV is fine as well. Some fans seem to not get the current salaries players get. Getting a 60 point scorer will cost well over 6M.

Daddy is currently tied for the team scoring lead. 5 million for that ain’t bad

 

[Sweatred]

I think everybody knows White isn't a valid comparable.

I certainly hope so ...

 

[Micklebot]

Daddy is currently tied for the team scoring lead. 5 million for that ain’t bad

No he isn't. Batherson, Tkachuk and Brown all have 1 more goal than him, he is also on a 30 pts pace which is pretty terrible...

 

[Burrowsaurus]

No he isn't. Batherson, Tkachuk and Brown all have 1 more goal than him, he is also on a 30 pts pace which is pretty terrible...

Okay. When he scored last it seems that put him in the lead. But either way. Our elite young core is out scoring him (expected). Brown is having a great year.

Those goals and points go up as every one else’s goals and points go up. If he can always be close behind tkatchuk and batherson in goals I think it’s decent

 

[Micklebot]

Okay. When he scored last it seems that put him in the lead. But either way. Our elite young core is out scoring him (expected). Brown is having a great year.

Those goals and points go up as every one else’s goals and points go up. If he can always be close behind tkatchuk and batherson in goals I think it’s decent

I think he's been a bit snake bitten on the assists, so I'm not really worried, but 22 goal and 30 pts pace is worse than what we got from Namestnikov.

 

[bicboi64]

8 years at $ 5 million per year with actual salary being like $7 million in the last year plz

 

[SensontheRush]

Is currently the teams leading scorer.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Micklebot]

Half of them are rookies or close enough, I think it's fair to assume what we are building towards and what we have this season are not the same thing.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Half of them are rookies or close enough, I think it's fair to assume what we are building towards and what we have this season are not the same thing.

That was my thought as well when I read it.

 

[TheNewEra]

lafallo's extension should be a great template for a batherson extension, similar point production this year. Lafallo is older but has more of a history of producing at this rate. Getting bath at 4 or less on an extension would be great