Player Discussion Drake Batherson (RW)

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

If Logan Brown had the same drive as Batherson, we might miss out on a high pick this season

If Logan Brown has the same drive as Batherson, we wouldn't need a high pick this year. It's just a shame. Hopefully he shows a bit more when given the opportunity.

 

[JD1]

You’re being unfair to brown here. You don’t know enough about him to say that.

More a case in my view that Brown is being unfair to himself and the team. For an upper end first rounder he seems to have a beer leaguer drive to be the best he can be

I'm hopeful he works out, we all should be....but Brown's the guy that determines that through his play

 

[DrSense]

Kudos to the coaching staff for still running Batherson out there all year. They have done the same with Norris to a degree as well, and shown they are much more patient with the kids than the vets, as it should be for a team like the Sens. Some in the media started to whisper Batherson should be a healthy scratch at some point, when it was clear to me at least, the looks and shots were there - as was the playmaking - he was just a bit snake bit early on. He has made some overly creative mistakes in his own end trying to create a clean exist in transition, but I like that intent (Stutzle has done the same). The coaches never blinked it seemed, and being rewarded now. He's on a hot streak, which is just karma for the cold streak earlier. Whether Batherson ends up a consistent 70 point 1st liner or 50 point 2nd liner, no one knows, but the upside is certainly there for the former.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

What are you on about? Why don't we take his last 5 games and repeat it 200 times?

You keep bringing up scoring stats based on the first 23 games he has played (after a year layoff) with rookies on the last place team in the league as some gospel about his play.

How about despite the reality above he has 50% more points than last season in the same number of games?

He has been playing like a top 6 W for most of the season despite his early numbers - his game isn't much different other than the puck going in.

Lol I have not brought up scoring stats in my last 2 posts.

I disagree that his play has been that of a top 6 forward all season... he went through a pretty decent stretch around the 8 or 10 game mark where he was flat-out struggling. He's been much better lately.

This is not a knock on the player. I dont think he's been consistent enough, which is to be completely expected for a player at this age & stage. If he's been a top 6 forward thus far, its in the Marcus Johansson mould. As I've said many times, he will continue to get much better.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Most 2nd line players are not that consistent. It's just a tough league. They tend to produce consistently from season to season.

Bath was really good for the first 6-8 games, struggled for the next half a dozen of so games and then has been excellent of late. That's pretty typical of 2nd line players as is his 14 points in 23 games. Time will tell if he can do it over longer time frames.

Now if he wants to be a first liner he'll need to turn those 6 game slumps into 1 or 2 game slumps.

 

[OD99]

Lol I have not brought up scoring stats in my last 2 posts

With respect the preview 2 posts I was referring to had you mentioning his expected points/60 and then suggesting we take his first 20 games from this year and project that out for his career.

I am saying using such a small sample of data isnt really useful.

Also saying that the point totals were not reflective of his impact. You want scorers to generate chances and he was doing that. He also has a dimension of his game where he can be physical so when he isn't scoring it isn't like he is a liability.

 

[EXTRAS]

I completely disagree that he's been a top 6 for the majority of the season. If the first 20 games of his season repeat throughout his career 50 times, you have a very nice middle 6er, but a legit top 6 guy? Not in my books.

Luckily for us, he has already gotten more confident, more assertive, more creative, and stronger on the puck. He will continue to improve in all those areas. No reason why he can't be an elite PP player and a very good, even elite 5v5 player.



If Logan Brown had the same drive as Batherson, we might miss out on a high pick this season

If u don't think a guy putting up an 82 game pace of 54 points in what is essentially his rookie season is a top 6 winger, then I don't know what to tell ya.

There are currently only 46 wingers putting up more than 14 points so far. Assuming ottawa has played more games thus far than most teams, let's say there would be 60 wingers w more points. That would put him fringe top line winger, let alone top 6 winger...as a guy just breaking into the league.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

With respect the preview 2 posts I was referring to had you mentioning his expected points/60 and then suggesting we take his first 20 games from this year and project that out for his career.

I am saying using such a small sample of data isnt really useful.

Also saying that the point totals were not reflective of his impact. You want scorers to generate chances and he was doing that. He also has a dimension of his game where he can be physical so when he isn't scoring it isn't like he is a liability.

I was referring to his play, not his production. And you are right, such a small sample size of data is not useful for projection, but I wasn't projecting - the function of "projecting" the past into the future was not to form an accurate projection, but to eliminate speculation on the future. Essentially, projecting the past onto the future isolates the past as the only object of analysis. Let me know if I am not explaining this well.

What Batherson has shown recently - the past 8-10 games - has absolutely been top 6 caliber. His first several games of the year were also top 6 caliber.

In my opinion, though, there was a stretch in between where he looked lost and ineffective. This has nothing to do with what I project him as in the future - I've been saying for a while that he's a lock as a top 6 forward, and that my only question is will he be a line driver on line 2 or a line driver on line 1. I just don't think his play to this point, especially at even strength, has been consistently that of a top 6 forward. In my opinion, he had a stretch where he wasn't creating as much and was losing puck battles. He looked timid, hesitant, overwhelmed, and frustrated. His passes were far less crisp, he was passing up on shooting opportunities, he was getting beat physically, he wasn't using his frame as effectively... he wasn't doing enough to change the circumstances of the team. His play the past few games has been excellent - not just the goal-scoring, but his physical play, his board battles, his overall level of engagement, everything.

But the fact is, he had a 16 game stretch with 3 points - only 1 even strength - and, while he certainly outperformed those numbers, he was far from a consistent threat. He was the victim of bad luck to a certain extent - he wasn't playing like a 15pt-per-season player - but to say he was purely a victim of bad luck and not at all suffering due to his own play is just not at all what I observed.

Again, I'm not chirping Drake. I love him and am very confident in his ability and his development. That said, even guys who are tenderly marinated and as ready as possible like Drake was will struggle to immediately step into a top 6 role and play with the consistency needed to do so. It's not a knock on him at all. He's a hell of a player and I would not be at all surprised if he doesnt go 16 games with just 1 even strength point for the next 10 years. And yes, I know I brought up stats but thats not the basis of my claim.

 

[wilfred]

What do you think his next contract will be? 2 year 3m? Would he do a 8 year 5m?

 

[dumbdick]

I was referring to his play, not his production. And you are right, such a small sample size of data is not useful for projection, but I wasn't projecting - the function of "projecting" the past into the future was not to form an accurate projection, but to eliminate speculation on the future. Essentially, projecting the past onto the future isolates the past as the only object of analysis. Let me know if I am not explaining this well.

What Batherson has shown recently - the past 8-10 games - has absolutely been top 6 caliber. His first several games of the year were also top 6 caliber.

In my opinion, though, there was a stretch in between where he looked lost and ineffective. This has nothing to do with what I project him as in the future - I've been saying for a while that he's a lock as a top 6 forward, and that my only question is will he be a line driver on line 2 or a line driver on line 1. I just don't think his play to this point, especially at even strength, has been consistently that of a top 6 forward. In my opinion, he had a stretch where he wasn't creating as much and was losing puck battles. He looked timid, hesitant, overwhelmed, and frustrated. His passes were far less crisp, he was passing up on shooting opportunities, he was getting beat physically, he wasn't using his frame as effectively... he wasn't doing enough to change the circumstances of the team. His play the past few games has been excellent - not just the goal-scoring, but his physical play, his board battles, his overall level of engagement, everything.

But the fact is, he had a 16 game stretch with 3 points - only 1 even strength - and, while he certainly outperformed those numbers, he was far from a consistent threat. He was the victim of bad luck to a certain extent - he wasn't playing like a 15pt-per-season player - but to say he was purely a victim of bad luck and not at all suffering due to his own play is just not at all what I observed.

Again, I'm not chirping Drake. I love him and am very confident in his ability and his development. That said, even guys who are tenderly marinated and as ready as possible like Drake was will struggle to immediately step into a top 6 role and play with the consistency needed to do so. It's not a knock on him at all. He's a hell of a player and I would not be at all surprised if he doesnt go 16 games with just 1 even strength point for the next 10 years. And yes, I know I brought up stats but thats not the basis of my claim.

Okay. No sweat. Just let us know when he crosses your threshold for top six.

Or, alternatively, maybe we can just check in with you day to day and you can tell us if he's a top six at that particular instant in time.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Drake one of this years biggest disappointments.

 

[aragorn]

Drake one of this years biggest disappointments.

How does Stutzle end up with more pts projected than Norris when they both have 12 pts so far this season? Stutzle has one more goal & Norris has one more assist, but total pts are even at 12 each. Seems like more bias in favour of Stutzle.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

How does Stutzle end up with more pts projected than Norris when they both have 12 pts so far this season? Stutzle has one more goal & Norris has one more assist, but total pts are even at 12 each. Seems like more bias in favour of Stutzle.

It's projected pace over 82 games. Stu has played less games to earn those points.
But yeah, those pesky mathematical biases.

 

[aragorn]

It's projected pace over 82 games. Stu has played less games to earn those points.
But yeah, those pesky mathematical biases.

good point, it's true he has played less games.

 

[armani]

How does Stutzle end up with more pts projected than Norris when they both have 12 pts so far this season? Stutzle has one more goal & Norris has one more assist, but total pts are even at 12 each. Seems like more bias in favour of Stutzle.

Süperstar played 3 games less.

Impressive start, Batherson and Norris come as advertised, while Jimmy continues to impress.

Tkachuk is on the verge of being an elite power forward.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

How does Stutzle end up with more pts projected than Norris when they both have 12 pts so far this season? Stutzle has one more goal & Norris has one more assist, but total pts are even at 12 each. Seems like more bias in favour of Stutzle.

Games played are incredibly complicated to calculate

 

[coladin]

Points don't tell the whole story, they are a byproduct of how Batherson was playing already.

He has generated the most opportunities of anyone on the team consistently all season.

Points don't tell the whole story, but the reality is he needed the points. He can't just keep doing "all the right things" and not produce. I think Drake knows what he has to do.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

How does Stutzle end up with more pts projected than Norris when they both have 12 pts so far this season? Stutzle has one more goal & Norris has one more assist, but total pts are even at 12 each. Seems like more bias in favour of Stutzle.

Lol maybe just a mistake I don’t know

 

[aragorn]

Lol maybe just a mistake I don’t know

Stutzle played less games, I missed that.

 

[DueDiligence]

If Logan Brown has the same drive as Batherson, we wouldn't need a high pick this year. It's just a shame. Hopefully he shows a bit more when given the opportunity.

Agree. In general people fall in love with the physical attributes of athletes and undervalue the mental attributes. Tom Brady is the poster child for that.

 

[DueDiligence]

Games played are incredibly complicated to calculate

Grade one arithmetic is hard!

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Okay. No sweat. Just let us know when he crosses your threshold for top six.

Or, alternatively, maybe we can just check in with you day to day and you can tell us if he's a top six at that particular instant in time.

He almost certainly has crossed that threshold. 5 games ago, not so much. If his next 15 games are like the 15 games I referred to, though, that would raise some serious doubts for me (and, I'm sure, the team). I don't expect that to happen, though... he seems to have found his footing, as we all knew he would.

 

[Big Muddy]

Kudos to the coaching staff for still running Batherson out there all year. They have done the same with Norris to a degree as well, and shown they are much more patient with the kids than the vets, as it should be for a team like the Sens. Some in the media started to whisper Batherson should be a healthy scratch at some point, when it was clear to me at least, the looks and shots were there - as was the playmaking - he was just a bit snake bit early on. He has made some overly creative mistakes in his own end trying to create a clean exist in transition, but I like that intent (Stutzle has done the same). The coaches never blinked it seemed, and being rewarded now. He's on a hot streak, which is just karma for the cold streak earlier. Whether Batherson ends up a consistent 70 point 1st liner or 50 point 2nd liner, no one knows, but the upside is certainly there for the former.

Most 2nd line players are not that consistent. It's just a tough league. They tend to produce consistently from season to season.

Bath was really good for the first 6-8 games, struggled for the next half a dozen of so games and then has been excellent of late. That's pretty typical of 2nd line players as is his 14 points in 23 games. Time will tell if he can do it over longer time frames.

Now if he wants to be a first liner he'll need to turn those 6 game slumps into 1 or 2 game slumps.

What Batherson has shown recently - the past 8-10 games - has absolutely been top 6 caliber. His first several games of the year were also top 6 caliber.

In my opinion, though, there was a stretch in between where he looked lost and ineffective.

Again, I'm not chirping Drake. I love him and am very confident in his ability and his development.

A young player (or any player for that matter) can be both very productive, but still have some mediocre and less than stellar smallish stretches of games. Both of those points can be true at the same time.

The point some are making is a little more nuanced, hence not as easy to digest. I guess the more polarized or binary world (very good versus very bad and nothing in between) is where some people prefer to live.

 

[OD99]

Points don't tell the whole story, but the reality is he needed the points. He can't just keep doing "all the right things" and not produce. I think Drake knows what he has to do.

I think this is fairly obvious but at the same time you cant focus solely on the results in almost anything.

You need to do the right things consistently and the results should come - we are seeing that now.

 

[thesensguy]

Batherson is a future 60 point forward. Wouldn’t be surprised if he outscores Tkatchuk in the future. Very good offensive skills, fun to watch with the puck. I am not worried about him being a top 6 forward for this team, but he definitely needs to play in offensive situations. Also not a bad defensive player and seems to have upped his physical game this season.