Drafting defencemen on the First round

[Claypool]

Are you referring to the Wings? I don’t understand your point

I'm referring to the Nashville Predators.

 

[jkutswings]

Squeaking into the playoffs in the second wild card spot with 94 points does not make you a legit Cup Contender.

So you claim that Nashville's floor is a reason to avoid emulating their plan.

If their floor is Detroit's ceiling, what does that say about Detroit's plan?

 

[Heaton]

So you claim that Nashville's floor is a reason to avoid emulating their plan.

If their floor is Detroit's ceiling, what does that say about Detroit's plan?

I'm honestly not sure why there's ever shade thrown on teams like Tampa, Nashville etc... They're in a spot where our team wants to be, is it insecurity on our part? I don't get it.

If the Wings get to the status that Nashville and Tampa are in, where we're cup contenders every year for a period of time, we'll have achieved what we set out to be. The great meme that Holland created saying 'if you expect cups you're in the wrong league' was phrased wrong, but his point did make sense. All you can expect of your team is to be put in a position to have a chance to win. If you are playing poker and have pocket aces, but get out-flopped by a 2/7 offsuit, that happens - it's life. But you put yourself in the best position possible to have a chance to win.

 

[jkutswings]

I'm honestly not sure why there's ever shade thrown on teams like Tampa, Nashville etc... They're in a spot where our team wants to be, is it insecurity on our part? I don't get it.

If the Wings get to the status that Nashville and Tampa are in, where we're cup contenders every year for a period of time, we'll have achieved what we set out to be. The great meme that Holland created saying 'if you expect cups you're in the wrong league' was phrased wrong, but his point did make sense. All you can expect of your team is to be put in a position to have a chance to win. If you are playing poker and have pocket aces, but get out-flopped by a 2/7 offsuit, that happens - it's life. But you put yourself in the best position possible to have a chance to win.

Spot on. And the other element in this thread I don't get is not saying where those defensemen originally came from that were traded for or signed as free agents. It's not like the Chris Prongers (2nd overall in 1993) and Scott Niedermayers (3rd overall in 1991) of the world were 5th round draft picks that surprisingly blossomed. Most studs are taken in the first round or two to begin with.

 

[ricky0034]

While it’s bad to not strike gold for a long time, it’s not hard to understand why in context.
First off let’s remove the last 4 drafts as it’s too early (I still think Saarijarvi has potential).
So we’re talking 2003-2014 if you want to only look post-Ericsson (as that is a great pick).

Only playoff years, mostly contender years.
Two 1st round picks used on D (one top 20).
Two 2nd round picks used on D (both late 2nd round).
Two 3rd round picks used on D (one the last pick of the 3rd, the other the 2nd to last pick).

That’s just not good odds. Bad draft position, often having less picks than other teams, not using a ton of picks on D.
I bet if you look at any team that HAS found better D than Quincey in that time, they have some combination of much better draft position, much more picks, and/or much more picks used on D.

so where would you rank the Wings in terms of drafting Defensemen?

all the context in the world still doesn't see them anywhere above near the bottom of the league,they just flat out aren't good at it

 

[Claypool]

So you claim that Nashville's floor is a reason to avoid emulating their plan.

If their floor is Detroit's ceiling, what does that say about Detroit's plan?

I was told that making the playoffs in the wild card spot and that "anything can happen" is a bad strategy.

so where would you rank the Wings in terms of drafting Defensemen?

Who cares. They were the winningest hockey franchise in the world for nearly a quarter century. Not sure why people care about the lack of draft success from 10 years ago. Right now the team is headed on the right track and has a lot of promising young players. By all means continue to argue about Franzen and Hossa deals, though.

 

[Pavels Dog]

so where would you rank the Wings in terms of drafting Defensemen?

all the context in the world still doesn't see them anywhere above near the bottom of the league,they just flat out aren't good at it

If I was forced to rank them I’d rank them high historically and low post-lockout. So average in total I guess? The thing about drafting is that one big hit makes people forget about a lot of missing and suddenly a team can build around a player for 10-15 years. We haven’t gotten that big hit in a while, which has a lot more to do with pure odds than it does actual skill in drafting.

 

[jkutswings]

I was told that making the playoffs in the wild card spot and that "anything can happen" is a bad strategy.

It absolutely is. But cherrypicking one season of a team that's recently been one of the better franchises in the league is a disingenuous characterization of Nashville.

Who cares. They were the winningest hockey franchise in the world for nearly a quarter century. Not sure why people care about the lack of draft success from 10 years ago. Right now the team is headed on the right track and has a lot of promising young players. By all means continue to argue about Franzen and Hossa deals, though.

How exactly do we know the team is "headed on the right track"?

I can say that selling at the deadline is smart, and has yielded good results in terms of picks. I can say that Larkin looks like a better player than nearly everybody expected. I can say that Mantha showed encouraging dedication to improving his approach to the game. But those are small bits and pieces of the big picture, and we still have zero idea what will happen when Holland's deal expires. His comments from this spring appear to be a mix of short term desire and reluctant realization:

Red Wings’ brain drain includes prominent managers, scouts

“Right now, we need good young players and lots of good young players. Next up will be trying to complement them by bringing in some players who are a little more experienced.

“I’d like to say a year or two,” before the team regains the playoffs, Holland said in April. “But, there are teams that run eight, nine, 10 years in a row, who miss the playoffs.”


So I think it's a tad premature to categorically label the team as right on track. A good first step or two? Sure. But there's a whole lot in flux before claiming that the plan is starting to work.

 

[SCD]

In Kruppa's article yesterday, he discusses Horcoff replacing Fischer as Director of Player Development. He alludes to Holland making these changes due to the lack of development of many high round picks. He also points out some of the misses that were made in recent drafts.

Much has changed in the way of personal within the Wings organization, hopefully much of that is because Holland has recognized the deficiencies. If we don't see turn around in the next year or two, Holland won't have any other excuses.

 

[Claypool]

It absolutely is. But cherrypicking one season of a team that's recently been one of the better franchises in the league is a disingenuous characterization of Nashville.

Nashville Predators Western Conference Finishes since 2006:

2006: 4th
2007: 4th
2008: 8th
2009: 10th
2010: 7th
2011: 5th
2012: 4th
2013: 13th
2014: 10th
2015: 3rd
2016: 7th
2017: 8th
2018: 1st

 

[jkutswings]

2015: 3rd
2016: 7th
2017: 8th
2018: 1st

2015: 1st round exit
2016: 2nd round exit
2017: made the Finals
2018: 2nd round exit

And they'll make at least the 2nd round again this year. On a tighter budget than many teams have. So, like I said, one of the recent better (on-ice) franchises.

 

[JoesuffP]

I believe if the Wings were as terrible as Tampa, Nashville for as long as them they would be in the exact same position and would have a contending team. Let them draft in the top 15 for more than two years before we declare their philosophy a failure

 

[Heaton]

I believe if the Wings were as terrible as Tampa, Nashville for as long as them they would be in the exact same position and would have a contending team. Let them draft in the top 15 for more than two years before we declare their philosophy a failure

Hmm, Nashville has been solid for a long time, they had a couple missed playoffs from 2012-2013, but they've been in the playoffs almost every year since 2003.

Tampa has a little pocket of missed playoffs, but they weren't bad for a prolonged period of time.

I firmly believe that the Wings should be competing for a playoff spot by next season or the season after. If we're not, the rebuild has been screwed up.

 

[Claypool]

2015: 1st round exit
2016: 2nd round exit
2017: made the Finals
2018: 2nd round exit

And they'll make at least the 2nd round again this year. On a tighter budget than many teams have. So, like I said, one of the recent better (on-ice) franchises.

Nashville has no first line center. David Poile hasn't been able to draft one in his entire term as general manager. See how easy this is?

 

[Winger98]

And Nashville is set up ridiculously well with their cap. They have the bulk of their bore, in their primes, locked down for several more years and are still nearly $10m under the cap right now. So, if they want to add someone still (like maybe Rick Nash could be convinced to not retire for a year...) they can. And it's looking like that Suuros guy could just step in for Rinne at a fraction of a cost and they won't miss a beat.

edit: I think Johansen is a fine line center.

 

[Go Wings]

I'm honestly not sure why there's ever shade thrown on teams like Tampa, Nashville etc... They're in a spot where our team wants to be, is it insecurity on our part? I don't get it.

If the Wings get to the status that Nashville and Tampa are in, where we're cup contenders every year for a period of time, we'll have achieved what we set out to be. The great meme that Holland created saying 'if you expect cups you're in the wrong league' was phrased wrong, but his point did make sense. All you can expect of your team is to be put in a position to have a chance to win. If you are playing poker and have pocket aces, but get out-flopped by a 2/7 offsuit, that happens - it's life. But you put yourself in the best position possible to have a chance to win.

Well said as usual Heaton.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I'm honestly not sure why there's ever shade thrown on teams like Tampa, Nashville etc... They're in a spot where our team wants to be, is it insecurity on our part? I don't get it.

If the Wings get to the status that Nashville and Tampa are in, where we're cup contenders every year for a period of time, we'll have achieved what we set out to be. The great meme that Holland created saying 'if you expect cups you're in the wrong league' was phrased wrong, but his point did make sense. All you can expect of your team is to be put in a position to have a chance to win. If you are playing poker and have pocket aces, but get out-flopped by a 2/7 offsuit, that happens - it's life. But you put yourself in the best position possible to have a chance to win.

I sort of get what you mean, but there is a discussion around here a lot that has an anything but cups is a failure slant. With that same measuring stick, they don't have one at all in Nashville and the 04 cup has very little to do with the current Lightning since they have an entirely different owner, front office and players. I like both teams, but I think most around here don't want to be other teams, they want the Wings to be the juggernaut they were once again.

It isn't like we don't know what winning hockey looks like... We are not that far removed, most of our fan-base doesn't need to look longingly at other teams. Now what we don't want to become is Montreal since 93' for instance.

 

[Heaton]

I sort of get what you mean, but there is a discussion around here a lot that has an anything but cups is a failure slant. With that same measuring stick, they don't have one at all in Nashville and the 04 cup has very little to do with the current Lightning since they have an entirely different owner, front office and players. I like both teams, but I think most around here don't want to be other teams, they want the Wings to be the juggernaut they were once again.

It isn't like we don't know what winning hockey looks like... We are not that far removed, most of our fan-base doesn't need to look longingly at other teams. Now what we don't want to become is Montreal since 93' for instance.

I think there is a poor attitude on both sides, but I think that minimizing the success of other teams when they're doing things well comes off as very petty. Especially when if we were in the same spot those same people would be loving and defending the position that the team was in.

 

[Claypool]

Nashville -
Good enough to make the playoffs but never a true contender
Bows out of the playoffs in the first or second round consistently
Gone over 20 years without drafting and developing a top-line center

Don't these complaints sound familiar?

I think there is a poor attitude on both sides, but I think that minimizing the success of other teams when they're doing things well comes off as very petty. Especially when if we were in the same spot those same people would be loving and defending the position that the team was in.

The attitude around here has been Cup or bust. If you're not good enough to compete for a Cup you should be losing to try and get even better. Just making the playoffs so that "anything can happen" is not good enough. Remember those threads? You can't criticize the Red Wings and at the same time praise Nashville for doing the same exact thing.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I think there is a poor attitude on both sides, but I think that minimizing the success of other teams when they're doing things well comes off as very petty. Especially when if we were in the same spot those same people would be loving and defending the position that the team was in.

I agree

But that is a part of what is driving the anger and seemingly increasing polarizing conversations we have had as Wings fans in my opinion.

I like both Tampa and Nashville a lot. Nashville looks built for the future, but they really do have just the one deep run historically. It would be cool for them to break through.

I am just not really sure jealousy or insecurity is really the heart of it though either Heaton. We have a lot of history as an organization and recent successful history to be proud of and draw from when looking to the future and some of the fanbase does do that in my opinion.

 

[Heaton]

But when someone brings up those teams and they're immediately dismissed because they haven't won a cup, that comes off as very dismissive and narrow minded. This especially when people mocked those who are cup or bust.

Those teams are set up really well, it would be a shame if they never won a cup, but it shouldn't take everything away from the success that they have had.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think there is a poor attitude on both sides, but I think that minimizing the success of other teams when they're doing things well comes off as very petty. Especially when if we were in the same spot those same people would be loving and defending the position that the team was in.

It’s because so many are so quick to dismiss everything the Wings did post-09 as garbage/waste of time/mediocre/etc. only to celebrate teams like Nashville for making it past the 2nd round once in their franchise history.

And Nashville is set up ridiculously well with their cap. They have the bulk of their bore, in their primes, locked down for several more years and are still nearly $10m under the cap right now. So, if they want to add someone still (like maybe Rick Nash could be convinced to not retire for a year...) they can. And it's looking like that Suuros guy could just step in for Rinne at a fraction of a cost and they won't miss a beat.

edit: I think Johansen is a fine line center.

Won’t be surprised if Preds fall off the radar soon. Subban trade wouldn’t be out of the blue. Weber could retire and give them recapture penalty. Saaros is definitely no Rinne replacement, not yet anyway. Their window is now, IF Rinne keeps playing at a high level. Otherwise they could be done.

 

[Heaton]

It’s because so many are so quick to dismiss everything the Wings did post-09 as garbage/waste of time/mediocre/etc. only to celebrate teams like Nashville for making it past the 2nd round once in their franchise history.

There was an obvious two different trends in two different directions, no?

 

[ricky0034]

But when someone brings up those teams and they're immediately dismissed because they haven't won a cup, that comes off as very dismissive and narrow minded. This especially when people mocked those who are cup or bust.

Those teams are set up really well, it would be a shame if they never won a cup, but it shouldn't take everything away from the success that they have had.

this may sound harsh but deep down I think it's just a quick and easy way of tearing down other teams to try and make the Wings look less bad

if cups are all that matters then the Wings suddenly aren't worse off than most teams right now

note how the no cups dismissal thing is typically only brought up by the small subset of people that blindly defend everything the Wings do

It’s because so many are so quick to dismiss everything the Wings did post-09 as garbage/waste of time/mediocre/etc. only to celebrate teams like Nashville for making it past the 2nd round once in their franchise history.

whens the last time the Wings had a team anywhere near as good as the one Nashville has right now?

ultimately that's what it all boils down to,it's been quite a while

 

[Pavels Dog]

whens the last time the Wings had a team anywhere near as good as the one Nashville has right now?

ultimately that's what it all boils down to,it's been quite a while

They had a great regular season this year. Both the previous years they were worse than Wings 2015 though.

There was an obvious two different trends in two different directions, no?

I don’t see a trend for Preds.

2011: 5th
2012: 4th
2013: 13th
2014: 10th
2015: 3rd
2016: 7th
2017: 8th
2018: 1st

What is the trend?