Drafting defencemen on the First round

[Pavels Dog]

Centers and defenders are the cream of the crop. They are what makes your franchise go around. And it is often tough to find really good ones outside the top 50 picks.

Elite talent makes a franchise go around. An elite winger is worth a lot more than a good center or D.
Statistically it’s probably easiest to find elite D outside the top of the draft too, although it’s still hard.

 

[jkutswings]

Getting back to drafting top defensemen...

Any metric for defining "top" is arbitrary, but here's one way:

Fantasy top 50 defenseman rankings for 2018-19

And here are where they were drafted (name, round/overall pick, year):

Hedman, 1/2, 2009
Subban, 2/43, 2007
Burns, 1/20, 2003
Byfuglien, 8/245, 2003
Karlsson, 1/15, 2008
Jones, 1/4, 2013
Doughty, 1/2, 2008
Klingberg, 5/131, 2010
Carlson, 1/27, 2008
Josi, 2/38, 2008
Gostisbehere, 3/78, 2012
Hamilton, 1/9, 2011
Krug, undrafted, 2012
Barrie, 3/64, 2009
Dahlin, 1/1, 2018
Letang, 3/62, 2005
Pietrangelo 1/4, 2008
Ellis, 1/11, 2009
McAvoy, 1/14, 2016
Yandle, 4/105, 2005
Provorov, 1/7, 2015
Giordoano, undrafted, 2004
Werenski, 1/8, 2015
Dumba 1/7, 2012
Rielly 1/5, 2012
Ekblad 1/1, 2014
OEL, 1/6, 2009
Ristolainen, 1/8, 2013
Gardiner, 1/17, 2008
Suter 1/7, 2003
Sergachev 1/9, 2016
Muzzin, 5/141, 2007
Montour, 2/55, 2014
S Theodore, 1/26, 2013
E Johnson, 1/1, 2006
C Miller, 5/151, 2012
Parayko, 3/86, 2012
Pulock 1/15, 2013
Faulk, 2/37, 2010
Schultz, 2/43, 2008
Vatanen, 4/106, 2009
Butcher, 5/123, 2013
Green, 1/29, 2004
Shattenkirk, 1/14, 2007
Nurse,1/7, 2013
Matheson, 1/23, 2012
Fowler, 1/12, 2010
Keith, 2/54, 2002
Spurgeon, 6/156, 2008
McDonagh, 1/12, 2007

Of the top 50, number by round:

1st round: 30
2nd round: 6
3rd round: 4
4th round: 2
5th round: 4
6th round: 1
7th round: 0
8th round: 1
Undrafted: 2

Now while the exact list of 50 is absolutely debatable, the statistical breakdown is some pretty strong evidence that the first round is the best place to find a top defenseman.

 

[dragonballgtz]

Because he was acquired with a trade, multiple times, when there was SC Final success. He never pan out on team which drafted him.

One legit proof, how there's a trade market for a defencemen, and drafting them is not so important. If you draft them, don't succeed with them and trade them, you can as well draft forwards, and trade them. Go with a BPA.

More you think of it, position really doesn't matter in drafting, if the most common way to address a defensive need in a winner is a trade for a 1st D. Just get talent for the trade.

A few of those trades were because of circumstances for Pronger. Blues being sold and then the wife controversy in Edmonton.

As far as trading for a teams #1 defensemen a GM has to be willing to give up a top prospect, roster player, and/or pick along to get the man they want. Just look at Pronger's first trade... it was Pronger for Shanahan. Wings have the talent to trade for a top pairing guy right now, but they must be willing to let go of Mantha, Zadina, Larkin, or Rass (not sure Rass is even worth that much). We ran into this situation before when Nyquist & Tatar came into the league but we didn't move one to address the aging defense.

 

[kliq]

Agree with 99% of this, and it's a very sound overall approach.

I just hate Ken Holland's guts, so while I can acknowledge good moves on an intellectual level, and I do hope the team rebuilds successfully, he could win another Cup here, and I'd still want him gone on an emotional level.

I can respect this. You're being completely honest with how you feel, and you're not using hyperbole to get your point across.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Getting back to drafting top defensemen...

Any metric for defining "top" is arbitrary, but here's one way:

Fantasy top 50 defenseman rankings for 2018-19

And here are where they were drafted (name, round/overall pick, year):

Hedman, 1/2, 2009
Subban, 2/43, 2007
Burns, 1/20, 2003
Byfuglien, 8/245, 2003
Karlsson, 1/15, 2008
Jones, 1/4, 2013
Doughty, 1/2, 2008
Klingberg, 5/131, 2010
Carlson, 1/27, 2008
Josi, 2/38, 2008
Gostisbehere, 3/78, 2012
Hamilton, 1/9, 2011
Krug, undrafted, 2012
Barrie, 3/64, 2009
Dahlin, 1/1, 2018
Letang, 3/62, 2005
Pietrangelo 1/4, 2008
Ellis, 1/11, 2009
McAvoy, 1/14, 2016
Yandle, 4/105, 2005
Provorov, 1/7, 2015
Giordoano, undrafted, 2004
Werenski, 1/8, 2015
Dumba 1/7, 2012
Rielly 1/5, 2012
Ekblad 1/1, 2014
OEL, 1/6, 2009
Ristolainen, 1/8, 2013
Gardiner, 1/17, 2008
Suter 1/7, 2003
Sergachev 1/9, 2016
Muzzin, 5/141, 2007
Montour, 2/55, 2014
S Theodore, 1/26, 2013
E Johnson, 1/1, 2006
C Miller, 5/151, 2012
Parayko, 3/86, 2012
Pulock 1/15, 2013
Faulk, 2/37, 2010
Schultz, 2/43, 2008
Vatanen, 4/106, 2009
Butcher, 5/123, 2013
Green, 1/29, 2004
Shattenkirk, 1/14, 2007
Nurse,1/7, 2013
Matheson, 1/23, 2012
Fowler, 1/12, 2010
Keith, 2/54, 2002
Spurgeon, 6/156, 2008
McDonagh, 1/12, 2007

Of the top 50, number by round:

1st round: 30
2nd round: 6
3rd round: 4
4th round: 2
5th round: 4
6th round: 1
7th round: 0
8th round: 1
Undrafted: 2

Now while the exact list of 50 is absolutely debatable, the statistical breakdown is some pretty strong evidence that the first round is the best place to find a top defenseman.

Wait a damn minute, why has so much venom been spewed to the contrary then?

30 picks made in first round
180 picks made outside the first round

So easy math for people, six times as many spins at the wheel and yet the results dont follow suit?

Blasphemy....

If top dmen can be found outsude round one just as easy, then math would say of the top 50 dmen in the league, 42 of them would have been drafted outside round 1 and just 7 inside the first round...

Mind blown

 

[lilidk]

When you draft defensemen on the first round there is no guaranty he will be at NHL. I wonder about Cholovsky ,is it going to work .

 

[Henkka]

When you draft defensemen on the first round there is no guaranty he will be at NHL. I wonder about Cholovsky ,is it going to work .

His WHL coach hyped Cholowski's game to fit better in NHL than lower leagues. I'm surprised if Dennis doesn't pan out. Many things have gone so well after the draft. He did grow more than expected etc.

 

[Henkka]

Trouba got 1-year 5.5M from the arbitrator.

When looking that Jets board, extension after that seems very unprobable.

 

[Winger98]

Trouba got 1-year 5.5M from the arbitrator.

When looking that Jets board, extension after that seems very unprobable.

looking at the Jets board and some of them are expecting the moon for that kid. It'll be interesting to see what Winny does with their blueline. Yeah, Trouba's been a pain, but Myers is in the last year of his deal, too. And Buf is getting older.

If they are looking to win the Cup and they want/have to deal Trouba, I think they need to look to take a couple of pricy vets back from someone, and use that to pull at least one 1st rounder from someone. I keep seeing folks wanting this or that young star type guy because he's cheap and controlled for the next seven years... but that guy isn't necessarily going to do the most to help you win now. Which is where I think Winny should be.

They're in a weird spot salary wise, too. If Wheeler, Connor, Laine, and Trouba go out and have the seasons they are capable of, you're looking at a lot of cap in those four guys.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Trouba continuing to use arbitration is really ideal for us. We just have to hope when Winnipeg do pull the trigger on a Trouba trade that he is committed to making UFA. This is a long wait, but to date the dream of Trouba in a winged wheel is following how it would have to happen in my opinion. Still a little ways off.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Trouba continuing to use arbitration is really ideal for us. We just have to hope when they do pull the trigger Trouba is committed to making UFA. This is a long wait, but to date the dream of Trouba in a winged wheel is following how it would have to happen.

When Trouba delayed his signing two years it was obvious he did not want to stay a Jets another longer than the CBA would allow. Maybe it isn't Winnipeg but the fact he wanted to be a UFA. Wings has excellent chance for him for sure. And since the Wings are a non playoff team for a couple years, don't even think trading for him. Try to get him a UFA in 2020.

 

[Winger98]

When Trouba delayed his signing two years it was obvious he did not want to stay a Jets another longer than the CBA would allow. Maybe it isn't Winnipeg but the fact he wanted to be a UFA. Wings has excellent chance for him for sure. And since the Wings are a non playoff team for a couple years, don't even think trading for him. Try to get him a UFA in 2020.

If it's just getting to UFA that's motivating him we have a shot. If it's not, we're almost certainly going to have to deal for him at some point if we want him. If Winny is set on dealing him now, and there's a package we can live with giving up, we should just do it. They're in a weird position where they need to win now - a bunch of their guys are either 30 or above - but they also can't take back a bunch of big, long term deals because they have guys like Laine, Connor, Myers, Wheeler, etc. to re-sign.

 

[jkutswings]

Trouba strikes me as a solid 1B kinda defenseman. If he can stay healthy, he's got some real potential, but I don't quite see him as an anchor for a team's blue line, just a very good next option.

Like, if you matched him with a first rate guy who was solid all around - Pietrangelo comes to mind - that seems like an ideal fit to overload a top pair. Or, for better depth, play him as a great #3 paired with a good two-way guy.

I like Trouba's skills, and I'd be very willing to trade for him, but I don't see him as the missing piece to building this defense...just a very good addition.

 

[Claypool]

Trouba strikes me as a solid 1B kinda defenseman. If he can stay healthy, he's got some real potential, but I don't quite see him as an anchor for a team's blue line, just a very good next option.

Like, if you matched him with a first rate guy who was solid all around - Pietrangelo comes to mind - that seems like an ideal fit to overload a top pair. Or, for better depth, play him as a great #3 paired with a good two-way guy.

I like Trouba's skills, and I'd be very willing to trade for him, but I don't see him as the missing piece to building this defense...just a very good addition.

He's never really gotten opportunities to play top minutes in Winnipeg, which is why he wants out. Byfuglien, for example, averaged twice as much power play time per game than Trouba. Detroit won't offer up the package to obtain him via trade but would absolutely sign him during free agency.

 

[jkutswings]

An interesting article on TSN, regarding defensemen getting bigger minutes/responsibility at a younger age (and guys well into their 30's becoming more of a rarity).

https://www.tsn.ca/talent/nhl-increasingly-reliant-on-young-defencemen-1.1148442

Here's the short list of teams whose top TOI guy was over 30 this year:

CGY: Giordano, 34
CHI: Keith, 34
DET: Ericsson, 33
SJ: Burns, 32
TB: Stralman, 31

 

[Snuggs]

Considering the team that is trading for him will have to extend Trouba, etc, I don't think they'll get a great haul if Jets do decide to move on from him. Rumors are that they want a significant package though if they do move on.

I think F Nyquist/F Glendenning/RHD Jensen would be enough for the Jets to consider moving Trouba if they can't get a long-term deal with him, or he doesn't want to be there. You might need to toss a mid round pick or soft prospect in the mix.

I'm in the camp though that's a little unsure about this move. We need a guy that can move the puck up ice, and play solid defense, run a PP, etc, I'm not sure Trouba is the guy you want bring the puck out of the zone with. Honestly there aren't TOO many of those type of defense-men anyways, which is why when you find one or have the opportunity to get one you go for it.

 

[Frk It]

Considering the team that is trading for him will have to extend Trouba, etc, I don't think they'll get a great haul if Jets do decide to move on from him. Rumors are that they want a significant package though if they do move on.
I think F Nyquist/F Glendenning/RHD Jensen would be enough for the Jets to consider moving Trouba if they can't get a long-term deal with him, or he doesn't want to be there.

That is not a significant package at all. Jensen is a guy who might pass through waivers for nothing. That trade offer wouldn't even be close.

Personally I think a deal for Trouba would involve a 1st round pick or a Rasmussen type prospect, along with some other stuff. I mean he had better numbers than Larsson did when he got traded. Last 2 years he has produced at a ~40 pt pace over 82 games while getting pretty minimal PP time.

 

[Winger98]

That is not a significant package at all. Jensen is a guy who might pass through waivers for nothing. That trade offer wouldn't even be close.

Personally I think a deal for Trouba would involve a 1st round pick or a Rasmussen type prospect, along with some other stuff. I mean he had better numbers than Larsson did when he got traded. Last 2 years he has produced at a ~40 pt pace over 82 games while getting pretty minimal PP time.

It'd be nice if we could deal for someone's first that we could then try to flip in a deal for Trouba. I'd be most interested in something that based around someone else's first, Nielsen with us retaining ~$2m, and something else - maybe another vet D that we retain money on as well or a non-highend prospect like Saarijarvi.

Before they move Trouba, they have to figure out what they're doing with Myers, though. I don't see how they can lose both of those guys in the same calendar year and still expect to contend.

 

[SirloinUB]

If top dmen can be found outsude round one just as easy

Wait a minute. Who has ever suggested this?

 

[waltdetroit]

Of the top 50, number by round:

1st round: 30
2nd round: 6
3rd round: 4
4th round: 2
5th round: 4
6th round: 1
7th round: 0
8th round: 1
Undrafted: 2

Now while the exact list of 50 is absolutely debatable, the statistical breakdown is some pretty strong evidence that the first round is the best place to find a top defenseman.

Thanks for looking this info up. But isn't it true that the best Centers are found in the 1st round too? Also wingers. It's the inherent nature of the draft that the best players are picked in the 1st round so you are right. i'd kinda like to know how many D were picked in the first round so you could get a percentage using the 30 top, (as well as centers and wingers) then you could determine the likelihood that a first round D pick would turn into a top D.

 

[Henkka]

So 60% on 1st round and 40% on lower rounds.

And what is the same for forwards?

And how would you balance your drafting, when you know both probablilities?

 

[jkutswings]

So 60% on 1st round and 40% on lower rounds.

And what is the same for forwards?

And how would you balance your drafting, when you know both probablilities?

At the moment, I'd use 2 of every 3 first round picks on defensemen. Both units need help, but they have twice as many promising young players/prospects up front than on the back end, and defensmen bust more often.

 

[Henkka]

An interesting article on TSN, regarding defensemen getting bigger minutes/responsibility at a younger age (and guys well into their 30's becoming more of a rarity).

https://www.tsn.ca/talent/nhl-increasingly-reliant-on-young-defencemen-1.1148442

Here's the short list of teams whose top TOI guy was over 30 this year:

CGY: Giordano, 34
CHI: Keith, 34
DET: Ericsson, 33
SJ: Burns, 32
TB: Stralman, 31

What comes to that article, I'll predict that TOP defencemen average age will go higher in next 4 years, because of the 2008 super-draft. Those current 28-year-old in-prime guys (Doughty, Karlsson, Subban, Pietrangelo etc.) will stay longer on the league on high level and raise the averages.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

So 60% on 1st round and 40% on lower rounds.

And what is the same for forwards?

And how would you balance your drafting, when you know both probablilities?

Right, but that 40% took six times as many picks to achieve

 

[Henkka]

Right, but that 40% took six times as many picks to achieve

That's just how it goes. And how does the split go with forwards?