Drafting defencemen on the First round

[Henkka]

I did a study.

Here are the results.

Latest Stanley Cup finalists and the background of their best Defencemen at the playoffs:

2006 Carolina
- Comittee defence
TOP2 guys:
- Tomas Kaberle - joined as UFA
- Bret Hedican - acquired via trade

2006 Edmonton
Clear 1st D
- Chris Pronger - acquired via trade

2007 Anaheim
Superstrong TOP3 guys:
- Scott Niedermayer - joined as UFA
- Chris Pronger - acquired via trade
- Francois Beauchemin - acquired via trade

2007 Ottawa
- Comittee defence
- Wade Redden, 2nd overall, 1995
- Anton Volchenkov, 21st overall, 2000
- Chris Phillips, 1st overall, 1996
Lost their former first Defenceman Zdeno Chara in free agency to Boston at summer before the SC Final run.

2008 & 2009 Detroit
TOP2 guys
- Nicklas Lidström, 3rd round pick
- Brian Rafalski, joined as UFA

2008 & 2009 Pittsburgh
Clear 1st D
- Sergei Gonchar, joined as UFA

2010 Chicago
Clear 1st D
- Duncan Keith, 2nd round pick

2010 Philadelphia
TOP2 guys:
- Chris Pronger - acquired via trade
- Kimmo Timonen - acquired via trade

2011 Boston
TOP2 guys:
- Zdeno Chara - joined as UFA
- Dennis Seidenberg - acquired via trade

2011 Vancouver
TOP2 guys (strong TOP4 comittee)
- Kevin Bieksa, 5th round pick
- Christian Ehrhoff, acquired via trade

2012 LA Kings
Clear 1st D
- Drew Doughty - 2nd overall 2008.

2012 New Jersey
Comittee defence
- Bryce Salvador - acquired via trade
- Mark Fayne - 5th round pick
- Andy Greene - college UFA
- Marek Zidlicky - acquired via trade

2013 Chicago
Clear 1st D
- Duncan Keith - 2nd round pick

2013 Boston
Clear 1st D
- Zdeno Chara - joined as UFA

2014 LA Kings
Clear 1st D
- Drew Doughty - 2nd overall 2008.

2014 NY Rangers
Clear 1st D
- Ryan McDonagh - acquired via trade

2015 Chicago
Clear 1st D
- Duncan Keith - 2nd round pick

2015 Tampa Bay
TOP2 guys:
- Victor Hedman - 2nd overall 2009
- Anton Strålman - joined as UFA

2016 Pittsburgh
Clear 1st D
- Kris Letang - 3rd round pick

2016 San Jose
TOP2 guys:
- Brent Burns - acquired via trade
- Marc-Edouard Vlasic - 2nd round pick

2017 Pittsburgh
Comittee defence
- Brian Dumoulin - acquired via trade
- Justin Schultz - acquired via trade
- Ron Hainsey - acquired via trade

2017 Nashville
Superstrong comittee defence
- Roman Josi - 2nd round pick
- PK Subban - acquired via trade
- Mattias Ekholm - 4th round pick

2018 Washington
TOP2 guys
- John Carlson, 1st round 27th overall, 2nd WSH pick at 2008 after a forward taken first.
- Matt Niskanen - joined as UFA

2018 Las Vegas
Comittee defence
- Nate Schmidt - college free agent picked from WSH
- Shea Theodore - 1st round #26 overall picked from ANA
- Brayden McNabb - former 3rd round pick picked from LAK
- Deryk Engelland - former 6th round pick picked from CGY


Mostly the TOP2 was determined as the "best point-scoring Def" and "highest minute-logging Def"


Total:
4x #1-2 overall (Phillips, Redden, Doughty, Hedman)
3x #21-27th overall (Volchenkov, Carlson, Theodore)
4x 2nd round pick (Keith, Vlasic, Josi, “Subban for Weber” who was drafted at 2nd round)
4x 3-4th round pick (Lidström, Letang, Ekholm, McNabb)
3x 5-6-7th round pick (Bieksa, Engelland, Fayne)
8x UFA (Kaberle, Niedermayer, Rafalski, Gonchar, Chara, Greene, Strålman, Niskanen)
2x homegrown college UFA (Greene, Schmidt)
16x acquired via TRADE (Hedican, Pronger, Beacuhemin, Timonen, Seidenberg, Ehrhoff, Salvador, Zidlicky, McDonagh, Burns, Dumoulin, Hainsey, Subban)

6 time a Comittee defence in 2x 13 years (26 cases)
10 times Clear first defenceman
10 times strong TOP2-3.

Okay, so 48 TOTAL most impacted defencemen in Stanley Cup Finalists since the Salary Cap.
- 8,3% (4/48) drafted at TOP3
- 14,6% (7/46) drafted at first round
- 20,8% (10/48) drafted outside of first round
- 20,8% (10/48) joined as UFA
- 33,3% (16/48) acquired via TRADE

So Final conclusion is, that 14,6% of defencemen (every 7th guy) for Stanley Cup finalists come as first round picks, and almost 83,3% come from a different route.

6 times of 26 finalists (23,1%) the Team been build around clear first D.


So what works?

A ) Win a lottery in a draft having a great franchice D.
B) Hunt defencemen at 2-3-4 rounds
C) Draft BPA no matter what the position is and Trade for a defenceman. It's the most common way to get a TOP D for a SC Finalist.
D) Hunt defencemen from free agency.

Click to read more...

 

[ricky0034]

The Wings have proven over a long period of time to be one of if not the worst in the league at B,and like half of your list for C were acquired by trading other Defensemen

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Actually your findings kinda show that over the last 10 years we've shifted away from points C and D. From 2012 on, the majority of the top defenders are drafted.

Burns was traded for, but was mediocre at the time and was bouncing between forward and defense. McDonagh hadn't even established himself in the NHL before Montreal traded them for Scott Gomez because.... Well, they're Montreal. (They apparently didn't learn from this, because they made the same mistake again with Sergachev) Subban was acquired for another top defender in Weber. (Surprise, Montreal again)

So actually I guess points A and B are valid, but point C should be trade your mediocre players for Montreal's defensive prospects.

 

[Claypool]

The Wings have proven over a long period of time to be one of if not the worst in the league at B

Let's stop spreading a false narrative that every team in the league finds top-pairing defensemen outside the first round.

 

[ricky0034]

Let's stop spreading a false narrative that every team in the league finds top-pairing defensemen outside the first round.

name one team that hasn't drafted a better Defenseman than Kyle Quincey in the past 15 years

just because most teams aren't drafting good Defensemen left and right later in the draft doesn't mean that the Wings aren't exceptionally terrible at it

 

[Claypool]

name one team that hasn't drafted a better Defenseman than Kyle Quincey in the past 15 years

just because most teams aren't drafting good Defensemen left and right later in the draft doesn't mean that the Wings aren't exceptionally terrible at it

Detroit was busy contending for championships every season for over 20 years. If your expectation is that a team should contend for championships and also draft top-pairing defensemen year in and year out, then you need to go to a doctor and get your head checked out because there's probably something wrong with it. It's only fair to begin judging this team's drafting history since missing the playoffs, which is the last two seasons.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Basically once Holland's done rebuilding the offense, Detroit needs to hire David Poile.

 

[ricky0034]

Detroit was busy contending for championships every season for over 20 years. If your expectation is that a team should contend for championships and also draft top-pairing defensemen year in and year out, then you need to go to a doctor and get your head checked out because there's probably something wrong with it. It's only fair to begin judging this team's drafting history since missing the playoffs, which is the last two seasons.

so you think making the playoffs is an acceptable excuse for not drafting a better Defenseman than Kyle Quincey in the past 15 years?

Defensemen drafted in the past 15 years past the first round by team with 300+ games played and/or 40+ games played this season:

Anaheim:

Shane O'Brien
Justin Schultz
Sami Vatanen
Josh Manson
Brandon Montour

Arizona:

Keith Yandle
Michael Stone

Boston:

Matt Hunwick
Matt Benning
Matt Grzelcyk
Brandon Carlo



Buffalo:

Jan Hejda
Andrej Sekera
Chris Butler
Mike Weber
Brayden McNabb
Jake McCabe

Calgary:

Adam Pardy
T.J. Brodie
Brett Kulak


Carolina:

Jamie McBain
Brian Dumoulin
Justin Faulk
Jaccob Slavin
Brett Pesce

Chicago:

Dustin Byfuglien
Niklas Hjalmarsson
Stephen Johns

Colorado:

Tyson Barrie
Will Butcher
Anton Lindholm

Columbus:

Marc Methot
Adam McQuaid
Kriss Russell
David Savard
Markus Nutivaara

Dallas:

Nicklas Grossmann
Patrik Nemeth
John Klingberg
Esa Lindell

Detroit:

Kyle Quincey
Nick Jensen
Xavier Ouellet

Edmonton:

Jeff Petry
Brandon Davidson

Florida:

Alex Petrovic
MacKenzie Weegar


Los Angeles:

Alec Martinez
Colin Miller

*worth noting that these rules leave out Voynov

Minnesota:

Clayton Stoner
Justin Falk
Marco Scandella
Gustav Olofsson

Montreal:

Ryan O'Byrne
Alexei Emelin
Mark Streit
P.K. Subban
Yannick Weber
Victor Mete


Nashville:

Kevin Klein
Shea Weber
Cody Franson
Roman Josi
Mattias Ekholm
Samuel Girard


New Jersey:

Mark Fayne
Damon Severson

NY Islanders:

Bruno Gervais
Chris Campoli
Andrew MacDonald
Travis Hamonic
Jared Spurgeon
Scott Mayfield
Adam Pelech

NY Rangers:

nobody


Ottawa:

Mark Borowiecki
Fredrik Claesson
Ben Harpur


Philadelphia:

Shayne Gostisbehere
Robert Hagg


Pittsburgh:

Alex Goligoski
Kristopher Letang
Robert Bortuzzo
Jake Muzzin

San Jose:

Matt Carle
Marc-Edourard Vlasic
Justin Braun
Jason Demers
Dylan DeMelo
Joakim Ryan

St. Louis:

Roman Polak
Joel Edmundson
Colton Parayko
Vince Dunn

Tampa Bay:

Mark Barberio
Radko Gudas
Jake Dotchin

Toronto:

Anton Stralman
Carl Gunnarsson
Greg Pateryn

Vancouver:

Alexander Edler
Kevin Connauton
Ben Hutton
Nikita Tryamkin
Gustav Forsling

Washington:

Dmitri Orlov
Connor Carrick
Christian Djoos
Madison Bowey


Winnipeg/Atlanta:

Tobias Enstrom
Ben Chiarot






honest question,take a look at these lists and tell me how many of them you would take the Wings list over? most of them aren't even close,the Rangers one looks noticably worse but Brady Skjei who they took with the 28th overall is still easily better than anyone the Wings have taken first rounders included


the Wings are either literally the worst team in the league at drafting defense or at least very close to it

 

[Pavels Dog]

name one team that hasn't drafted a better Defenseman than Kyle Quincey in the past 15 years

While it’s bad to not strike gold for a long time, it’s not hard to understand why in context.
First off let’s remove the last 4 drafts as it’s too early (I still think Saarijarvi has potential).
So we’re talking 2003-2014 if you want to only look post-Ericsson (as that is a great pick).

Only playoff years, mostly contender years.
Two 1st round picks used on D (one top 20).
Two 2nd round picks used on D (both late 2nd round).
Two 3rd round picks used on D (one the last pick of the 3rd, the other the 2nd to last pick).

That’s just not good odds. Bad draft position, often having less picks than other teams, not using a ton of picks on D.
I bet if you look at any team that HAS found better D than Quincey in that time, they have some combination of much better draft position, much more picks, and/or much more picks used on D.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

Even if you look at the wings. We got lucky by drafting the best defenseman ever late but the surrounded defenseman was mostly acquired through trades and UFA.

 

[Lampedampe]

So basicly ever since LA's cup win in 2012 teams who have won the cup are teams that drafted their top defenseman.

Also, teams that are able to find a 1#d after the 1st round get a clear advantage in that they can go heavier on forwards in the 1st round. But we also know that drafting a 1st pairing defenseman outside of the 1st round is becoming harder, so it can't be relied on.

C is kinda BS since no team since Boston has won the cup while acquiring their 1#d through trade. Look at Columbus they did a great job in acquiring Seth Jones, the only problem now is that they could use a Ryan johansen. You can trade for a potential 1#d without creating a massive hole but to acquire a sure fire 1#D means you'll have to create a damning hole in your line up, it's just not the way to go imo.

 

[Henkka]

Basically once Holland's done rebuilding the offense, Detroit needs to hire David Poile.

Yep. We need Poile and all his Stanley Cups.

Quite funny how thay early Ottawa, then St. Louis and nowadays Nashville are the best defencemen drafters. Drafted many on the first round.

And they have combined 0 Stanley Cups.

Zero.

I mean, Zero.

Did I just wrote zero?

Nolla.

 

[Heaton]

Yep. We need Poile and all his Stanley Cups.

Quite funny how thay early Ottawa, then St. Louis and nowadays Nashville are the best defencemen drafters. Drafted many on the first round.

And they have combined 0 Stanley Cups.

Zero.

I mean, Zero.

Did I just wrote zero?

Nolla.

I still am not seeing a point here, what is it?

 

[Shaman464]

Yep. We need Poile and all his Stanley Cups.

Quite funny how thay early Ottawa, then St. Louis and nowadays Nashville are the best defencemen drafters. Drafted many on the first round.

And they have combined 0 Stanley Cups.

Zero.

I mean, Zero.

Did I just wrote zero?

Nolla.

I love it when people screech about Nashville not having cups. And how there needs to be context about Detroit’s situation but can’t see the irony of their criticism of Poile. Spoiler alert; the owners of Nashville have made it a policy to run their team on the lowest budget possible for years on end. Given that fact, the fact that through great drafting and good trades has iced what has been good teams on average.

 

[jkutswings]

While it’s bad to not strike gold for a long time, it’s not hard to understand why in context.
First off let’s remove the last 4 drafts as it’s too early (I still think Saarijarvi has potential).
So we’re talking 2003-2014 if you want to only look post-Ericsson (as that is a great pick).

Only playoff years, mostly contender years.
Two 1st round picks used on D (one top 20).
Two 2nd round picks used on D (both late 2nd round).
Two 3rd round picks used on D (one the last pick of the 3rd, the other the 2nd to last pick).

That’s just not good odds. Bad draft position, often having less picks than other teams, not using a ton of picks on D.
I bet if you look at any team that HAS found better D than Quincey in that time, they have some combination of much better draft position, much more picks, and/or much more picks used on D.

Using too few picks on the position - and then not finding another avenue to improve a clear and expected weakness - is still an indictment on the front office.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Using too few picks on the position - and then not finding another avenue to improve a clear and expected weakness - is still an indictment on the front office.

Yes but if the discussion is ”they can’t draft D”, we need the context of why they couldn’t. Going need over BPA too much is rarely great either.

Trading for top D is generally rare and often requires top picks in return (Hall, Drouin, Johanssen, Yashin etc.) so that’s a strategy that becomes increasingly more viable the more top picks and high-end forwards you collect.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Yep. We need Poile and all his Stanley Cups.

Quite funny how thay early Ottawa, then St. Louis and nowadays Nashville are the best defencemen drafters. Drafted many on the first round.

And they have combined 0 Stanley Cups.

Zero.

I mean, Zero.

Did I just wrote zero?

Nolla.

1. It was a joke. Clearly.

2. Poile can't draft forwards, hence the, "When Holland is done rebuilding the offense." When it comes to drafting defense, Nashville blows every other team away.

 

[Henkka]

Yes but if the discussion is ”they can’t draft D”, we need the context of why they couldn’t.

The question is: "Are they even prioritizing it?"

Why should they prioritize drafting a D for a need, if BPT (better possible talent) is available?

The stats will show that you can build a winning defence in many different ways. Imo, it isn't a die hard need like many in here are saying it would be.

But forwards. Nowadays their level correlates more with the draft pick height. Why not prioritizing them? They develop almost double as faster in time.

I have hard time to see a problem on Red Wings current draft tactics, when looking on the past and from where the players in winning teams come from.

But maybe I'm the wrong person to say anything, because I'm not blindfolded about the Ken Holland or Tyler Wright -hate.

 

[JoesuffP]

Nashville has been a legit Stanley cup contender for 3 years of their entire history despite drafting high. Yes I’m jealous of their defense but there’s not just one way to become good. Or should we take Nashville’s approach and be irrelevant for 20 years until the team is good?

 

[Claypool]

Nashville has been a legit Stanley cup contender for 3 years of their entire history despite drafting high. Yes I’m jealous of their defense but there’s not just one way to become good. Or should we take Nashville’s approach and be irrelevant for 20 years until the team is good?

Squeaking into the playoffs in the second wild card spot with 94 points does not make you a legit Cup Contender.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I still am not seeing a point here, what is it?

C'mon. When it's a long series of paragraphs in a new thread trying to prove a conclusion that he had already come to long before the thread was even made, it's clear it's a Henkka thread, haha. On brand.

 

[Henkka]

C'mon. When it's a long series of paragraphs in a new thread trying to prove a conclusion that he had already come to long before the thread was even made, it's clear it's a Henkka thread, haha. On brand.

I have made my own opinion clear for sure and shown reasonable data why I think like that.

Still waiting for some real counter-argument with more information than just "beliefs" or "feelings".

 

[Bench]

This isn't as good as your alternative history study where you killed baby Hitler and the Red Wings still sucked.

 

[Heaton]

I have made my own opinion clear for sure and shown reasonable data why I think like that.

Still waiting for some real counter-argument with more information than just "beliefs" or "feelings".

You've explained how you think it works, but you're operating in a vacuum and not in the real world. Holland doesn't make trades and the type of defenseman we need don't make it to UFA and they certainly won't come here. The only option for Holland is drafting and developing, which he isn't very good at with defensemen.

So your conclusion is to get lucky, which is fine, just not something that will make anyone comfortable.

Honestly, the best solution is for Holland to move upstairs or leave and get a GM in here with a more modern view on how to run a team.

 

[JoesuffP]

Squeaking into the playoffs in the second wild card spot with 94 points does not make you a legit Cup Contender.

Are you referring to the Wings? I don’t understand your point