Draft pick best case scenario

[njx9]

You definitely take the best player.

But if he's a winger (no matter how good he is), you better hope you start actually hitting on some later gambles at D and C, because he's never going to carry you anywhere on his own. And he's going to be stuck waiting around for another 5 years for any D you pick to actually develop. So much for that ELC benefit.

 

[HisNoodliness]

If we get #2, you take Svechnikov. I think it's an easy choice. I think he's going to be an elite difference maker at the next level and it doesn't matter what position he plays. At #3 I think it's a much tougher question. Personally I prefer Boqvist to Zadina and think that 3, 4 and 5 are all pretty even (Boqvist, Zadina, and Hughes) so if the team at 4 or 5 offered me a good package to move up to 3, I'd certainly consider it. My gut feeling would probably just be to take Boqvist at 3 though.

 

[rhef3]

It's not overthinking it at all, I don't know about you but I feel a #1 D is much harder to come by obtaining so the only way to do that is through the draft, the redwings most glaring weakness is defense, I'm sure zadina or svech will turn out fine, but they could still turn out like yakupov, even the oilers traded a #1 pick in taylor hall for a 2-3 defenseman in larrsson. IF the wings landed the #2 pick i'm sorry but I'm going to try to get down to #5 or so and grab more "cute assets" and get myself ANOTHER first round pick.

It's easy to say "oh i have the 2nd pick, let's get BPA and be done for the night, sure that might work for most, but when you have so many holes to fill especially on defense you draft early and often until you hit the jackpot.

The whole draft is a crapshoot folks, and I don't know about you, but i want more chips to bet with.

I'm not sacrficing my #2 pick because i'm only moving down a few spots and i will still get one of the top 3 defenseman in this years draft. Might even look into using my extra "cute assets" and move up into the draft and get another defensemen at 15 or so.

I go hard this year on defense early
2019 I'm still in the jack hughes lottery or take the likes of dach,suzuki,turcotte early on at Center, another big need.

this is all based on if we landed pick 2,3.

if 5-9 best defenseman available and see if anything is worthwhile to trade up for.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

You definitely take the best player.

But if he's a winger (no matter how good he is), you better hope you start actually hitting on some later gambles at D and C, because he's never going to carry you anywhere on his own. And he's going to be stuck waiting around for another 5 years for any D you pick to actually develop. So much for that ELC benefit.

Yes, but that is a bridge you cross when you come to it. You don't pass up the BPA for a lesser player in the top 5 because you think your second or third round picks might not pan out.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

It's not overthinking it at all, I don't know about you but I feel a #1 D is much harder to come by obtaining so the only way to do that is through the draft, the redwings most glaring weakness is defense, I'm sure zadina or svech will turn out fine, but they could still turn out like yakupov, even the oilers traded a #1 pick in taylor hall for a 2-3 defenseman in larrsson. IF the wings landed the #2 pick i'm sorry but I'm going to try to get down to #5 or so and grab more "cute assets" and get myself ANOTHER first round pick.

It's easy to say "oh i have the 2nd pick, let's get BPA and be done for the night, sure that might work for most, but when you have so many holes to fill especially on defense you draft early and often until you hit the jackpot.

The whole draft is a crapshoot folks, and I don't know about you, but i want more chips to bet with.

I'm not sacrficing my #2 pick because i'm only moving down a few spots and i will still get one of the top 3 defenseman in this years draft. Might even look into using my extra "cute assets" and move up into the draft and get another defensemen at 15 or so.

I go hard this year on defense early
2019 I'm still in the jack hughes lottery or take the likes of dach,suzuki,turcotte early on at Center, another big need.

this is all based on if we landed pick 2,3.

if 5-9 best defenseman available and see if anything is worthwhile to trade up for.

You know how you fill holes on a roster? You take elite players when they are there. At some point, you need quality not quantity. In the top 5 is not the place where you dick around and lose the guy you want. The draft guys are all pretty unanimous in Dahlin, Svech, Zadina as being the top 3 talents in this draft. Teams are usually spot on with the top 3. Every now and then you get a Yakupov, but I also kinda think he wasn't done any favors by Edmonton's coaching.

And the Hall for Larsson trade has been panned pretty hard for Edmonton's side. They overpaid a ton because Hall was surrounded by crap and therefore had depressed stats and Larsson is a passable top pairing D who's getting paid like a mediocre mid pairing guy for several years.

 

[Ezekial]

It's not overthinking it at all, I don't know about you but I feel a #1 D is much harder to come by obtaining so the only way to do that is through the draft, the redwings most glaring weakness is defense, I'm sure zadina or svech will turn out fine, but they could still turn out like yakupov, even the oilers traded a #1 pick in taylor hall for a 2-3 defenseman in larrsson. IF the wings landed the #2 pick i'm sorry but I'm going to try to get down to #5 or so and grab more "cute assets" and get myself ANOTHER first round pick.

It's easy to say "oh i have the 2nd pick, let's get BPA and be done for the night, sure that might work for most, but when you have so many holes to fill especially on defense you draft early and often until you hit the jackpot.

The whole draft is a crapshoot folks, and I don't know about you, but i want more chips to bet with.

I'm not sacrficing my #2 pick because i'm only moving down a few spots and i will still get one of the top 3 defenseman in this years draft. Might even look into using my extra "cute assets" and move up into the draft and get another defensemen at 15 or so.

I go hard this year on defense early
2019 I'm still in the jack hughes lottery or take the likes of dach,suzuki,turcotte early on at Center, another big need.

this is all based on if we landed pick 2,3.

if 5-9 best defenseman available and see if anything is worthwhile to trade up for.

You're sacrificing actual talent for theoretical lottery odds.

Zadina and Svech could be Yakupov, and all the Ds could bust too.

 

[Frk It]

It's easy to say "oh i have the 2nd pick, let's get BPA and be done for the night, sure that might work for most, but when you have so many holes to fill especially on defense you draft early and often until you hit the jackpot.

The whole draft is a crapshoot folks, and I don't know about you, but i want more chips to bet with.

I'm not sacrficing my #2 pick because i'm only moving down a few spots and i will still get one of the top 3 defenseman in this years draft. Might even look into using my extra "cute assets" and move up into the draft and get another defensemen at 15 or so.

That's fine and all. But the reason picks that high rarely get traded is because you won't find a dance partner with equal value. Odds are no one has possession of the picks that would actually make that trade worthwhile. Once you actually look at what picks teams have, this will start to look a lot less appealing to you.

Plus there has been some great players available at #2 in recent years, and this year is no exception.

This is one of those things that sound good on paper, but not in practice.

 

[rhef3]

My point is when do we get that #1 D ?

They don't grow on trees, you have to overpay to get one via trade and this is a fine year to get something at the draft.

I understand the BPA and move on draft tactic, I do. But if we keep drafting forwards we will decrease our odds of obtaining that elite D.

 

[Frk It]

My point is when do we get that #1 D ?

They don't grow on trees, you have to overpay to get one via trade and this is a fine year to get something at the draft.

I understand the BPA and move on draft tactic, I do. But if we keep drafting forwards we will decrease our odds of obtaining that elite D.

Well we have a 60% chance at drafting 6th or 7th, vs a 16% chance at drafting 2nd or 3rd.

Some great defenseman should be there at 6 or 7. So you’re worrying a lot about nothing

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Boqvist is getting slept on here, though. He's a really high end talent already, and he's got a ton of room to grow. I think he's a better *defenseman* than Hughes, while also being a lot younger.

I don't think Svechnikov vs Zadina vs Boqvist is clear cut if you're looking at it from a long term view. Sooner isn't better... better is better.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

It's not overthinking it at all, I don't know about you but I feel a #1 D is much harder to come by obtaining so the only way to do that is through the draft, the redwings most glaring weakness is defense, I'm sure zadina or svech will turn out fine, but they could still turn out like yakupov, even the oilers traded a #1 pick in taylor hall for a 2-3 defenseman in larrsson. IF the wings landed the #2 pick i'm sorry but I'm going to try to get down to #5 or so and grab more "cute assets" and get myself ANOTHER first round pick.

It's easy to say "oh i have the 2nd pick, let's get BPA and be done for the night, sure that might work for most, but when you have so many holes to fill especially on defense you draft early and often until you hit the jackpot.

The whole draft is a crapshoot folks, and I don't know about you, but i want more chips to bet with.

I'm not sacrficing my #2 pick because i'm only moving down a few spots and i will still get one of the top 3 defenseman in this years draft. Might even look into using my extra "cute assets" and move up into the draft and get another defensemen at 15 or so.

I go hard this year on defense early
2019 I'm still in the jack hughes lottery or take the likes of dach,suzuki,turcotte early on at Center, another big need.

this is all based on if we landed pick 2,3.

if 5-9 best defenseman available and see if anything is worthwhile to trade up for.

Detroit can't pick at 9th the worst is 8th you can only slip 3 down and Detroit is at #5 so #8 is the worst we can pick and there's only a 4.3% chance of that happening we've a greater chance at #1 at 8.5% then at #8 4.3% by almost 2-1.

 

[Frk It]

Boqvist is getting slept on here, though. He's a really high end talent already, and he's got a ton of room to grow. I think he's a better *defenseman* than Hughes, while also being a lot younger.

I think Zadina and Wahlstrom are getting slept on (on this board) just because people don’t want wingers.

Go watch their highlights and tell me you wouldn’t want that on this team. Hell, Zadina is playing in the men’s tournamnet right now after already being dominant at the U20’s.

 

[njx9]

Yes, but that is a bridge you cross when you come to it. You don't pass up the BPA for a lesser player in the top 5 because you think your second or third round picks might not pan out.

I agree with the concept, for sure. If the front office think Svech/Zadina/whoever are elite wingers and that Boqvist/Dobson/etc. are mid-pairing D men, they should absolutely go winger.

I just don't think that's true, and I think it's a minor travesty to take the slightly better winger in the first draft in ages where you can get a stud D prospect. And while there's a good amount of depth for our second round picks, there's still a reason anyone we take in the second will have lasted that long and a reason why guys like Boqvist/Dobson/Bouchard won't. But I'm just kicking the same very, very dead horse again.

 

[Frk It]

Again, guys it’s probably all moot anyways.

We are probably drafting at 6 or 7. Most likely Dahlin, Svech, Zadina, Boqvist, and Tkachuk are off the board.

So it will be a Wahlstrom and a bunch of defenseman. Probably Hughes, Bouchard, and Dobson.

So the most likely scenario is the scenario most people want.

 

[Oddbob]

As far as #1 D go, if we don't land Dahlin, you don't need to have a top 5 draft spot to get a great #1 D. Shea Weber was drafted 49th or something in his draft year, and he is still a very good #1 guy. There are lots of examples of very good to great d, coming out of the top picks in drafts, and also lots of failed d drafted up front. Top 5 pick, you take the BPA everytime, and then later picks you worry about what your team needs. If you had Gretzky, then drafted 1st overall next season, and Lemieux was available you wouldn't pass just because now you have too many #1 centers.

 

[Timber]

No worries, we will win the draft lottery and take Dahlin.

If not? Won't happen. Be positive

 

[newfy]

It's easy to say "oh i have the 2nd pick, let's get BPA and be done for the night, sure that might work for most, but when you have so many holes to fill especially on defense you draft early and often until you hit the jackpot.

I'm not sold on Zadina but Svechnikov is a stud. You dont pass on him to draft dmen who are much less likely to pan out. Would you rather Zach Bogosian, Luke Schenn or Vlad Tarasenko? Who helps the wings more in the next ten years. I know the wings need D, everyone knows that but they need elite talent more than anything. You add a Svechnikov, all of a sudden Mantha or AA become extremely expendable if its in a deal for a young dman.

I also would expect if they dont get a dman at the top of this draft, the Vegas pick and 2 early 2nd rounders have a high likeihood of being all or mostly dmen drafted. Elite talent plus 3 top 40 D would be an awesome draft.

I'm not sure come draft time Zadina will be the clear cut 3rd overall that he was right after the world juniors. We'll see and he might still be the favourite to go third, but I'm not so sure hes locked into that spot like Dahlin and Svechnikov are at 1,2

 

[njx9]

Shea Weber was drafted 49th or something in his draft year, and he is still a very good #1 guy.

And given the Wings long, storied history of identifying great defensive prospects late in the draft, this is both highly relevant and precisely how they should manage their draft board.

 

[Frk It]

I'm just curious... what do people not like about Zadina? I really don't see much there NOT to like, personally.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I'm just curious... what do people not like about Zadina? I really don't see much there NOT to like, personally.

He doesn't take faceoffs or skate back as one of the two defensemen. That's about as far as it goes for people. He's not a C and he's not a D.

 

[rhef3]

Not sure what you mean about zadina, he will go #2 or #3 easily.

He isn't getting talked about because we don't know where we are picking, I'm sure come Sunday morning things will change.

 

[rhef3]

I'm not sold on Zadina but Svechnikov is a stud. You dont pass on him to draft dmen who are much less likely to pan out. Would you rather Zach Bogosian, Luke Schenn or Vlad Tarasenko? Who helps the wings more in the next ten years.

You mean Victor hedman, drew doughty or Michael Dal Colle ?

It could go either way

Also Nikita kucherov was selected 58th overall

Food for thought.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I'm just curious... what do people not like about Zadina? I really don't see much there NOT to like, personally.

Not so much dislike as much as it is I think the gap between his projection and the projection of the second wave of prospects is not as great as a lot of people believe it is. I do think he is probably the 3rd best player in the draft, but I have him closer to the second wave than I have him to Svechnikov as the clear #2. Part of it is preference, part of it is positional need of the organization, part of it is positional depth in the draft.

After Dahlin, I have Dobson as my #2 defenseman, followed by Bouchard/Boqvist pretty evenly, and then I'm not all that excited about defensemen slated to be picked in the top 10. That's kind of my cut off. So if I truly want to get an impact defenseman in this draft, I would prioritize landing one of those guys, since I expect there to be more solid forwards available throughout the first round than defensemen.

Keeping in mind this is what I think holds the most value for the Wings, not necessarily how I think they should or will have their wish list set up:
Dahlin
Svechnikov
Dobson
Zadina
Bouchard/Boqvist
Wahlstrom
Tkachuk

 

[jkutswings]

In a perfect scenario, you take a player that is not yet ready, but will become an elite player in a few years. That satisfies both the long term goal of team building and the short term goal of continued high draft picks.

So it depends on how you rate guys like Boqvist, Hughes, Bouchard, and Dobson. If you think one or more of those guys will be as impactful as a Svech or Zadina - but need a few years to get there - then go for it. But if you don't put their (eventual) ceiling as high as the potential of the top wingers, then I understand not settling for a lesser caliber of player, even if it's a position of desperate need.

If Detroit ends up with #2/3, then ideally, the Wings either get an offer they can't refuse to slide a few spots, or they take the winger, and then still find a way to get a top ten caliber defenseman (whether a guy slides to the Vegas pick, or they trade up for "their guy" in the 10-15 range).

Or they could just land Dahlin, and then everybody's happy.

 

[newfy]

You mean Victor hedman, drew doughty or Michael Dal Colle ?

It could go either way

Also Nikita kucherov was selected 58th overall

Food for thought.

Not close to the same comparison. Doughty and Hedman were touted as potential first overalls. They were the elite talents. The defensemen in this draft after Dahlin arent on that Hedman/Doughty level. Dal Colle wasnt considered an elite talent like Svechnikov is. In his draft year Svechnikov scored more goals than Dal Colle in 20 less games.

We're talking a Taylor Hall level prospect. None of those D are that level, sure they could end up that good but Svechnikov is much more likely