Draft pick best case scenario

[BinCookin]

According to my math... If we get pick #2 and trade down to #5 we should be able to add a #16th pick.
that would be the fair trade:

2 for 5 + 16.

the only problem is no GM has that pick combination or anything like that.

2nd round pick would also be worth 8th+9th round pick

Or if we pick #4 and trade back to #8 we should get a 20/21st pick.

the only team that has picks that could buy a trade up i think is the NYI (Would be roughly fair if we traded the #4 pick for #10 + #12).

 

[ShelbyZ]

The first and second a definitely not usually moved, and definitely not for a pick somewhere between 20-50 as compensation. To get a top pick you need to really have an amazing offer.

I would say it's more along the lines of #1-5.

The last time a #2OA changed hands, it did so before they knew where the pick was going to fall, in the infamous Kessel to Toronto trade.

Under less stupid terms, the last time a top 5 was moved was 2008 when Toronto moved up by sending #7 and #68 OA in 2008 and a pick that became #37 OA in 2009 to move up two spots to #5.

From then until last summers draft, there's usually movement between #6 and #10, but often for established players. In a packages that went for Jordan Staal/Bobby Ryan/Jeff Carter, #9OA straight up for Cory Schneider, #7OA and Anthony DeAngelo for Stepan and Raanta.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Wherever they draft, I want them to draft a defenseman. That's the best case scenario. I would take Boqvist at 2/3.

Boqvist has monster upside. I view him as a Malkin to Dahlin's Ovechkin. Just, you know... on defense.

If you want a Karlsson, roll the dice for one. "We thought there might be a better winger available" is going to be a really disappointing explanation in 5 years.

 

[Ezekial]

Zadina will go 2 , he is NHL ready , Svechnikov will bring a lot off skills , not sure about personality . Tkachuk will play any situation and he is NHL ready . After this players it really doesn't meter , there a lot of players could be great , could be bust . If they trade down it will be ok with me . If we got defenseman i want him to be good at defense first , probably Doubson after Dahlin is the best choice

Honestly man, what (dis)information are you getting about little Svech?

And shit any player in any top ten could either be great or bust...


I go
Dahlin
Svech
Zadina
Boqvist

No matter what, so hopefully if we're 5 Boqvist fell a spot.

Edit: if we were to go Boqvist over Zadina I think I'd be fine, but I'd be less comfortable with the other d, I really think he's gonna be a good one.

 

[TheRatPoisoner]

The only pick I don't want is 3rd, because I think Zadina is probably the front runner for that spot, I don't really want him, and I think it would be hard trading out of that spot for anything that would make it worth the move. If we did get 3rd, I'd probably just take Dobson and then see how far Zadina slips.

This guy seems to think Wings are leaning Zadina at #2:

Petrella’s Pre-Lottery Look at the Red Wings’ Options

However, he's basing that off an interpretation of what Custance wrote here:

Before the locker cleanout: 13 takeaways from Red Wings...

Maybe somebody that subscribes to the athletic can verify Custance actually thinks that?

 

[ShelbyZ]

the only problem is no GM has that pick combination or anything like that.

I'm sure if a team wants the player at #2 bad enough, they can swing a separate trade to get the necessary picks to move up.

Almost 19 years ago, Brian Burke owned #1, #2, #3 and #4 overall in 1999 at various points during a 24 hour period so he could draft the Sedins. In the process he traded away Bryan McCabe, #1, #4, #75, #88, #99, #246 all in 1999, #11 in 2000, as well as an agreement that Atlanta take Patrik Stefan with that #1 he traded them.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Maybe somebody that subscribes to the athletic can verify Custance actually thinks that?

His piece basically implied that Zadina is the best pure sniper in the draft this year, and the Wings need someone who can score in bunches, so you could see the justification for making that selection. He really didn't give insight on where the team is leaning, but rather what ideas might be in play.

 

[TheRatPoisoner]

His piece basically implied that Zadina is the best pure sniper in the draft this year, and the Wings need someone who can score in bunches, so you could see the justification for making that selection. He really didn't give insight on where the team is leaning, but rather what ideas might be in play.

Ah, right on. Thanks.

Should probably just subscribe -- content seems pretty good. But I digress...

 

[Hen Kolland]

Like a lot of people, I am on the fence with Zadina and if the right deal came around, I would move back in the top 10 with extra pieces being added. I prefer to go with Dobson over any defenseman other than Dahlin and Svechnikov over any forward in the draft. Drafting Dobson very well could be accomplished from #5-8, and say someone like Veleno or Hayton or Smith or Farabee fall and we make an aggressive move to move up. That, for me, might be preferential to winning the Svechnikov mini sweepstakes and staying put with the late 20s pick from Vegas. I can't predict someone falling, so it'll all depend on what happens on draft day.

 

[Frk It]

If you want a Karlsson, roll the dice for one. "We thought there might be a better winger available" is going to be a really disappointing explanation in 5 years.

Not when Svechnikov comes into the league and makes an instant impact, which I think he can.

I mean I want a defenseman too, but these aren't just "some wingers" we are talking about here. These wingers are pretty damn good this year.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Outside of the first pick, which pick would you prefer to have this coming Saturday ?

Hope for 2nd and trade down ?
Keep 2nd ?

4th pick to grab best available defenseman ?

Everyone wants the first pick but what would be the alternative best case scenario for us ?

Detroit can only draft 1, 2, 3 or 5, 6, 7 or 8 they can't draft 4th unless they trade with the 4th pick team.

 

[rhef3]

Detroit can only draft 1, 2, 3 or 5, 6, 7 or 8 they can't draft 4th unless they trade with the 4th pick team.

Sorry, just seeing what the best scenario would be for the draft.

But thank you for the clarification

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Not when Svechnikov comes into the league and makes an instant impact, which I think he can.

I mean I want a defenseman too, but these aren't just "some wingers" we are talking about here. These wingers are pretty damn good this year.

I don't value making an instant impact at all. If anything, it's actually slightly worse in my opinion. The last thing the Wings need right now is an instant star winger who will drag them into the playoffs and out of a rebuild. And you better believe Holland and Ilitch are going to grab onto that first playoff birth and never let go. They wouldn't have the centermen or defensemen to actually contend, so the team would be a paper tiger, limping to the lower seeds every year. No thanks.

At least with Dahlin that would fill a major hole. I don't think Svechnikov and Zadina fill any real hole at all. The team already has quality depth on the wing. Upgrading from Anthony Mantha is not nearly as important as upgrading from Nik Kronwall.

 

[Ezekial]

This guy seems to think Wings are leaning Zadina at #2:

Petrella’s Pre-Lottery Look at the Red Wings’ Options

However, he's basing that off an interpretation of what Custance wrote here:

Before the locker cleanout: 13 takeaways from Red Wings...

Maybe somebody that subscribes to the athletic can verify Custance actually thinks that?

7. Of those players, the two who probably don’t fit organizational needs the most are Andrei Svechnikov and Brady Tkachuk. The Red Wings like both players but the crucial need is on defense and it would be hard to pass on a potential top pair defenseman for another winger in the system. The one exception would be Filip Zadina. The organization is well aware they need a game-breaker to compete with the best teams in what’s becoming a one-goal league. Zadina is that guy. Depending on where they're picking, it might be really hard to pass him up.

Here's what he said in reference to the players that could be available between 5-8

 

[Frk It]

I don't value making an instant impact at all. If anything, it's actually slightly worse in my opinion. The last thing the Wings need right now is an instant star winger who will drag them into the playoffs and out of a rebuild. And you better believe Holland and Ilitch are going to grab onto that first playoff birth and never let go. They wouldn't have the centermen or defensemen to actually contend, so the team would be a paper tiger, limping to the lower seeds every year. No thanks.

At least with Dahlin that would fill a major hole. I don't think Svechnikov and Zadina fill any real hole at all. The team already has quality depth on the wing. Upgrading from Anthony Mantha is not nearly as important as upgrading from Nik Kronwall.

You might not, but people who are assessing the merits/quality of a draft pick will. Which was the original point we were speaking to.

We need elite players. Last I checked Tampa Bay and Boston are favorites in the East, and you could argue their best player is a winger. If Svechnikov becomes Hossa V2, he fills a hole. If Zadina or Wahlstrom become Tarasenko V2, they fill a hole. I think those kids all have humongous upside.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

You might not, but people who are assessing the merits/quality of a draft pick will. Which was the original point we were speaking to.

We need elite players. Last I checked Tampa Bay and Boston are favorites in the East, and you could argue their best player is a winger. If Svechnikov becomes Hossa V2, he fills a hole. If Zadina or Wahlstrom become Tarasenko V2, they fill a hole. I think those kids all have humongous upside.

Yeah, you're right. I just don't want the rebuild to end so quickly, and I think this is the most likely path to it happening.

 

[Frk It]

Yeah, you're right. I just don't want the rebuild to end so quickly, and I think this is the most likely path to it happening.

I get it. I just know that when I rank the players in this class (without considering any team's needs), I always end up with a top 5 that is mostly wingers. So I can't be a hypocrite from that perspective.

Call me crazy, but I really just think this year will work itself out for us in our favor. I see some wingers going 2-5, and then we pick 6-7 and get a great defenseman. I am not worried, I have had this feeling for awhile that this is lining up nicely for us. Maybe I'm finally losing my mind... I don't know

 

[TCNorthstars]

Yeah, you're right. I just don't want the rebuild to end so quickly, and I think this is the most likely path to it happening.

I mean, if Svech comes in here and carries this team to the playoffs we have hit that draft pick out of the freaking park!

 

[rhef3]

I don't value making an instant impact at all. If anything, it's actually slightly worse in my opinion. The last thing the Wings need right now is an instant star winger who will drag them into the playoffs and out of a rebuild. And you better believe Holland and Ilitch are going to grab onto that first playoff birth and never let go. They wouldn't have the centermen or defensemen to actually contend, so the team would be a paper tiger, limping to the lower seeds every year. No thanks.

At least with Dahlin that would fill a major hole. I don't think Svechnikov and Zadina fill any real hole at all. The team already has quality depth on the wing. Upgrading from Anthony Mantha is not nearly as important as upgrading from Nik Kronwall.

That's a great point, and I wholeheartedly agree, by drafting lil svech he could hinder the rebuild believe it or not, especially since defenseman take longer to develop. By drafting a D early we will still suck next season to get another top 5 pick.

Zadina/svech might bump us up to the 8-14 range.

I'm not positive but I hear next year is a good season for centers ?

Could be wrong though.

 

[Ezekial]

When you avoid players because you think they'll make your team too good you're making a terrible mistake.

 

[rhef3]

Not avoiding, I just think it's a better long term strategy.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Yeah, you're right. I just don't want the rebuild to end so quickly, and I think this is the most likely path to it happening.

I'd rather take a worse player so our team sucks than an actual elite talent. That's tantamount to what you're saying.

That's insane. I understand that you want to fell swoop it and get a bunch of guys... but if you have a chance at an elite player and he makes an instant impact, you take that 1 million times out of 1 million. We need elite talent. One elite player is not going to put us in the "competitive limbo" that you're seemingly so petrified of. In the top 5... you take the best player that is on the board for you. If Svech or Zadina grade out higher than the D? You take them and be giddy that you got an elite player. You don't try to get cute and build up assets.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Not avoiding, I just think it's a better long term strategy.

You're overthinking it. You're trying to get cute and complex when the best move is the obvious one. I'd trade 2OA if we got it for a ludicrous overpayment. Otherwise, I'm taking whichever guy I like better of Svech or Zadina. Unless you are just so sky high on a guy like Boqvist that you'd take him at #2OA without giving up any assets and you're only dropping a safe distance to where you can still be ensured he's on the board.

Like trading 18 for 20 in the Mantha draft, as they knew Mantha wasn't going in those two picks.

Other than that, you're way overthinking this.

E: And when I say ludicrous, I mean like Draisaitl+ ludicrous. I don't even care that it doesn't probably have that value, I don't trade the pick for anywhere near fair value.

You want the #1 or #2 OA, you're going to pay and pay very dearly for it. I don't have to give it up.

 

[Ezekial]

Not avoiding, I just think it's a better long term strategy.

If Zadina or Svechnikov were come in next year and tear it up leading us to one point out of the playoffs I'd feel pretty good about it long term.

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

I want us to draft Adam Boqvist