Salary Cap: Dr StrangeDubas: “Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than 10-20 more goals against, tops.”

[Gurglesons]

I'll put Guentzel's recent track record up against any potential replacement that people might be targeting.

Rather than move on from our perennial best goal scorer in the regular season and playoffs, I think we'd be better served focusing on moving futures to shore up depth and diversify skillsets.

That’s great. Most potential replacements likely didn’t have the opportunity of playing thousands of minutes with Sidney Crosby and getting powerplay time out the ass.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That’s great. Most potential replacements likely didn’t have the opportunity of playing thousands of minutes with Sidney Crosby and getting powerplay time out the ass.

So name names.

I've heard Reinhart, who's about lateral and a crapshoot to add in UFA. I can't imagine the options get better from there.

 

[Jacob]

Just do 4x8 for Jake. Lots are foregoing the real long deals lately anyway. Cap will go up, he can cash in again at 34.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Committing hostages to fortune is usually a good reason to cease doing so, not to keep doing it!

And what Guentzel costs is opportunity. He costs the ability to do other things for the roster. Get depth. Get guys who offer more than production. Get someone whose numbers doesn't imply they're actively bad for PP1 when they're stapled to it. You probably can't do all of those, but you can hopefully at least do some of them.



Here's a question for everyone who wants to keep Guentzel - how special do you think last season was? How much would you be willing to pay if that's what you were guaranteed to get?

I am fine in replacing Guentzel. What I am not fine in is waiting until July 1, 2024 uncertainty to do so. Or burning first rounders such that we do not have any until 2028 either.

Personally I think Guentzel is closer to a league average top 6 guy (Like Smith or Zucker) than he is a special talent these days. I would be a-ok grabbing a Smith type to replace him. But that isn't what Sid or Sully think and certainly not how the fanbase views Jake.

 

[Freeptop]

I stated earlier that my personal opinion is that I'd hold off until mid-season, at the earliest, before deciding what to do with Guentzel. If nothing, else, I'd want to see how he recovers from his surgery.

I'll just note here that if the Pens were going to just re-sign him in order to keep the band together, they would have already done so.

(Watch them announce a new contract tomorrow, just to spite me...)

 

[Gurglesons]

Just do 4x8 for Jake. Lots are foregoing the real long deals lately anyway. Cap will go up, he can cash in again at 34.

If he signs for 8 mil x 4 I would do it in a second.

 

[eXile3]

Yeah, I'm so tired of hearing arguments about what Jake has done as a defense for why we should re-sign him.

Nobody is criticizing Jake being one of the best wingers in the game since 2017. The issue is where he is at in his career, his game, and his size.

this is what it’s always been about. People would take a less productive player if he was bigger which makes no sense to me.

I get that Jakes a pretty one dimensional player for the most part but we’re not rebuilding, there’s no way to add a player/s of his caliber through UFA, and we have so little assets to trade. Seems logical we just resign him.

 

[PensandCaps]

Debrincat was a RFA.

Yah, forgot. Big difference. Looks like 9+ then for sure lol.

 

[Gurglesons]

this is what it’s always been about. People would take a less productive player if he was bigger which makes no sense to me.

I get that Jakes a pretty one dimensional player for the most part but we’re not rebuilding, there’s no way to add a player/s of his caliber through UFA, and we have so little assets to trade. Seems logical we just resign him.

I'm not really that keen on "needing" a player with size to replace Jake.

I'd be fine with a similar size player if they can play defensively.

 

[Darren McCord]

I'm not really that keen on "needing" a player with size to replace Jake.

I'd be fine with a similar size player if they can play defensively.

With this coach that won’t even be asked to play defense. So the point is mute

 

[Gurglesons]

With this coach that won’t even be asked to play defense. So the point is mute

Carl Hagelin was successful here in a top six role.

Not my fault since 2018 we've focused solely on building our top six with 20g - 30a forwards.

 

[Peat]

I am fine in replacing Guentzel. What I am not fine in is waiting until July 1, 2024 uncertainty to do so. Or burning first rounders such that we do not have any until 2028 either.

Personally I think Guentzel is closer to a league average top 6 guy (Like Smith or Zucker) than he is a special talent these days. I would be a-ok grabbing a Smith type to replace him. But that isn't what Sid or Sully think and certainly not how the fanbase views Jake.

They can replace him with a Smith guy no sweat, no great expense.

If you're worried they'd do something big and expensive... well, there are possibly a few big free agents. I also think that a trade perhaps shouldn't be viewed with such fear. A really big multiple 1sts trade almost definitely results in an asset who either lengthens and strengthens the window considerable, or will have considerable trade value once its done, or both. More likely it'd be cheaper.

 

[pistolpete11]

Yah, forgot. Big difference. Looks like 9+ then for sure lol.

I actually think your number was pretty close (~$8M), but Debrincat just isn't the best comparable given the UFA/RFA difference.

I look at Malkin, Letang, and Rust taking less and I think Guentzel will, too. Malkin and Letang are a little different because they are probably a bit more concerned about 'legacy' and they were signing retirement deals, but Rust was a very similar position. Everyone here was moving on from him in large part because he was going to get $6M or $7M and he settled for barely over $5M. So if people here think Guentzel will get $9M on the open market, I wouldn't be surprised to see him take $8M.

I've said on here before, term is just as important to me as the AAV, though. I want it to be a moveable contract once Sid, Geno, and Letang retire. Nobody is going to trade for Guentzel at a high AAV if he's signed until he's 37. I'd do 5 years max. He'd be 34 at the end of it and can still get another decent multi year contract if he's still playing at a decently high level.

$8M x 5 with a NTC through the first 2 or 3 years and then it gets reduced to a 10-15 team list for the last 3 or 2.



Edit: And I'm not really commenting on whether I do or don't want to sign him. I think it's an inevitability, so I'm saying what I think would be a reasonable contract for both sides.

 

[Turin]

Wild that Tatar is still floating around out there

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Something around 4x8 would be a slam dunk for me, you front load the deal and give him a limited or full NTC for 2 years. He's guaranteed he's playing with Sid for 2 more years and he can make around 20m over that time. Use those FSG deep pockets.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If they anchor to Rust's deal + 20% for more premium player + 6% for inflation over the last 2 years:

6 Years, $39.1M. $6.5M AAV.
Seems like a no-brainer if you can set it up that way. But that was a different environment when we had to resign Letang & Malkin.

 

[Darren McCord]

Carl Hagelin was successful here in a top six role.

Not my fault since 2018 we've focused solely on building our top six with 20g - 30a forwards.

Define successful hagelin was a 3rd liner almost always when it counted. Maybe his first season you could say top six but thats it.

2016 regular
6th most icetime for forwards
2016 Playoffs
6th most icetime for forwards (Mostly third line with Kessel and Bonino)

2017 regular season
9th most icetime for forwards
2017 Playoffs
11th most icetime for forwards

2018 Playoffs
7th most icetime for forwards
2018 Playoffs
8th most icetime for forwards

He had 2pts in the 2017 cup and was a -2 He did nothing.

Outside of HBK hagelin was pretty mediocre.

If they anchor to Rust's deal + 20% for more premium player + 6% for inflation over the last 2 years:

6 Years, $39.1M. $6.5M AAV.
Seems like a no-brainer if you can set it up that way. But that was a different environment when we had to resign Letang & Malkin.

I think Jake gets 7.5 mill for 6 years.

 

[Gurglesons]

Define successful hagelin was a 3rd liner almost always when it counted. Maybe his first season you could say top six but thats it.

2016 regular
6th most icetime for forwards
2016 Playoffs
6th most icetime for forwards (Mostly third line with Kessel and Bonino)

2017 regular season
9th most icetime for forwards
2017 Playoffs
11th most icetime for forwards

2018 Playoffs
7th most icetime for forwards
2018 Playoffs
8th most icetime for forwards

He had 2pts in the 2017 cup and was a -2 He did nothing.

Outside of HBK hagelin was pretty mediocre.



I think Jake gets 7.5 mill for 6 years.

So Hagelin was successful in a top six role here. Cool.

 

[Darren McCord]

So Hagelin was successful in a top six role here. Cool.

So bonino was too then I guess. Weird cause I though he was the third line center

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Is it the shitty food or the constant gray sky that makes Brits this miserable?

Well stats show that 99% of the time I don't give a shit and the 1% of the time I took high danger shots in the slot that I shouldn't have, which equated to who gives a flying f***.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

"I have unresolved trauma from high school math, so none of you are allowed to use numbers anymore."

 

[Gurglesons]

So bonino was too then I guess. Weird cause I though he was the third line center

Positionally Bonino was our third most frequently used center.

Hagelin was our third most frequently used winger and was in a top six role in 16-17 and 17-18 prior to injury.

 

[OnMyOwn]

I would take another Hagelin in a heartbeat. Loved watching that guy play and he seemed like a genuinely well liked guy. I don’t even know who we have that’s comparable right now.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

This is why you can't trust a former player's opinion just because they were NHL'ers. Some of these dudes are dumb as rocks.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

I think it's probably a bad idea to trade Guentzel or not re-sign him. This certainly depends on how his season goes. Luckily, we can see how he plays 20-30 games in and reassess then. I also don't think he'll sign for $9M or more. I wouldn't be surprised if he did, but I think he'll end up getting between $7-8M. I don't care about term. If the worry is that he might be a bad player at 32 like James Neal became, that's four years away. The team will be tanking then; if Guentzel is bad then, he can help with the tank. If he's still good then, he can be a tradeable asset.

If they anchor to Rust's deal + 20% for more premium player + 6% for inflation over the last 2 years:

6 Years, $39.1M. $6.5M AAV.
Seems like a no-brainer if you can set it up that way. But that was a different environment when we had to resign Letang & Malkin.

I think Guentzel will end up getting more, simply because Rust's current deal was in itself a raise from his previous deal. I could see Guentzel getting a comparable raise from his previous deal than Rust did.
Alternatively, your AAV might be right, but the term will be a full 8-year contract. That would be fine, too.