Proposal: Don't Rent....Buy the final core piece.

[Gary Nylund]

Because he's 32 and is signed for 8(!!!) more years after this one. I think we would get 3 or maybe even 4 good years (if we're lucky) before that contract is even worse than Phaneuf's was. If he was a FA, I'd be terrified of giving him 8 years at age 32. I think the team that is holding the bag when he truly starts to decline will be very, very unhappy.

If he was signed for only 3 more years, I'd be 100% in your corner yelling "Buy, Buy, Buy!" but specifically Shea Weber's contract is a big no-go for me.

Exactly this, well put. So many people want to win now and that's great, I want to win now too. But I want to contend for the next decade+, I've never wavered on that and we should be very leery of making moves that are likely to hurt us 4-5 years down the road. Call me greedy but I want it all.

 

[Razz]

Because he's 32 and is signed for 8(!!!) more years after this one. I think we would get 3 or maybe even 4 good years (if we're lucky) before that contract is even worse than Phaneuf's was. If he was a FA, I'd be terrified of giving him 8 years at age 32. I think the team that is holding the bag when he truly starts to decline will be very, very unhappy.

If he was signed for only 3 more years, I'd be 100% in your corner yelling "Buy, Buy, Buy!" but specifically Shea Weber's contract is a big no-go for me.

And if he only had 3 years left, he'd cost the farm. Truth be told, if he Leafs are serious about making a legit run for the next several years, Weber may be that final piece. His signing bonuses are all paid out and his cap hit as of next year is higher than his actual salary. It's not the end of the world to keep him while our young players are still cost controlled.

 

[Gary Nylund]

hehheh. I'm glad you're on board. You think we're a contender.

Now if we're a contender, why wouldn't we try to upgrade our weak spots?

Upgrading weak spots is one thing, trading Liljegren and 1st round picks for Weber is mortaging our future to win now, no thanks.

 

[-DeMo-]

I dunno guys, the Leafs are on quite a run right now. If the Leafs pull of wins against Pittsburgh and Boston on Feb 17th and 24th, all bets are off as far as what the Leafs are going to do at the deadline. From Lou's perspective: How can you not go for it if the Leafs are beating the top teams in the NHL?

Nashville and Tampa are already down. The Boston game is a write off as far as I'm concerned (3rd in 4 nights on the road against a rested Boston team).

If the goal was to prove they can do it and earn extra help, they certainly are making their case...

you really can't look at a 2 week period in a season and say see were winning alot right now, the NHL season is about ups and downs, all teams go through hot streaks and cold streaks, taking a 2 week or 3 week sample and deciding that is the true quality of your team can easily backfire. Buffalo just beat Boston and Tampa back to back does that mean they've turned the corner? no it's the regular season.

 

[Razz]

you really can't look at a 2 week period in a season and say see were winning alot right now, the NHL season is about ups and downs, all teams go through hot streaks and cold streaks, taking a 2 week or 3 week sample and deciding that is the true quality of your team can easily backfire. Buffalo just beat Boston and Tampa back to back does that mean they've turned the corner? no it's the regular season.

Sure you can. This is a key point of the season and this winning streak coincides with Babcock assembling the playoff roster. This isn't some flukey run that's going on right now. Once the team emerged from that rough part of the schedule at around .500, they knew it was go time.

I'm not advocating a win now stance, don't get me wrong. I'll buy into the long game as well, but I cannot ignore what's going on here and to think management is going to sit on a contending team and either weaken it or not bolster it is foolish.

The winning streak will play a huge role in determining the direction.

 

[zeke]

Upgrading weak spots is one thing, trading Liljegren and 1st round picks for Weber is mortaging our future to win now, no thanks.

If that's true, then every cup winner has mortgaged their future to win now.

 

[Gary Nylund]

you really can't look at a 2 week period in a season and say see were winning alot right now, the NHL season is about ups and downs, all teams go through hot streaks and cold streaks, taking a 2 week or 3 week sample and deciding that is the true quality of your team can easily backfire. Buffalo just beat Boston and Tampa back to back does that mean they've turned the corner? no it's the regular season.

That's true, there's no guarantee we'll keep going like this. On the other hand, team's full of young guys who tend to get better as time goes along and we did the same thing last year and were one of the top teams in the NHL for the last couple of months. And of course we added Dermott and he's had a HUGE impact, I wouldn't bet on him running out of gas anytime soon. Also the line combos make more sense and I don't see Babcock switching Marner and Komarove again so ... as I see it, there is reason to be optimistic and think that the team could simply be rounding into form (or coming into it's own if you perhaps).

That said, you're right, it's only been a couple of weeks so we should exercise some caution. That's why I like the middle ground which is to forego the assets we could get for JVR and whoever else (I've been resigned to that anyway and it's as much not to disrupt the team as it is about the value of JVR) but at the same time, NOT make some huge trade where we give up huge pieces of our future (which also has the value of not disrupting things while we're on a roll).

 

[Gary Nylund]

If that's true, then every cup winner has mortgaged their future to win now.

Every team has traded away their top prospect and 1st round picks to get that missing piece? I don't think so.

 

[-DeMo-]

here's the thing - the last 4 years of his deal are actually cheapo years in terms of real salary ($3m, $1m, $1m, $1m), and it's pretty likely that a cap floor team would be happy to take on his fake caphit deal in those years.

imo it's not a good idea to plan on dumping a bad contract to a cap floor team, there's only 2 teams today whose cap is under 66 million when the floor is 55.4 million so there's really not many cap floor teams anymore, and if those 2 teams in 3-4 years are even playoff teams they likely wont take him at that point. however Weber does fill a couple of needs for this team in terms of defensively, his shot from the point, and his leadership would be a big asset aswell. if Montreal would retain some salary and we didn't have to give up as much as your saying and went more quantity then I would be all for it, but I think we look at OEL/Doughty if were trading Liljegren + a 1st personally don't see why we wouldn't be able to re-sign either of those guys as nobody else would be able to offer that 8th year. were going to be a contender for a long time there's almost no reason for those guys to reject the Leafs.

 

[zeke]

Nobody's looking at a 2 week hot streak. The Leafs have been a ~100pt pace team for near 2yrs now. They have 104pts in their last 82gms.

 

[Razz]

We have 6 games until the deadline. The outcome of these games will tell us a lot about what the deadline activity will look like.

 

[DatSnipeMatthews]

My wet dream is for Chiarelli to have another brain aneurysm and somehow think he needs to trade Draisaitl to upgrade his D prospects and wingers.

 

[zeke]

Every team has traded away their top prospect and 1st round picks to get that missing piece? I don't think so.

Yep, every single cup winner has traded away young assets of similar caliber as Liljegren and a late first round pick in building their cup winner. Most have traded away much more than that.

 

[Fogelhund]

Because he's 32 and is signed for 8(!!!) more years after this one. I think we would get 3 or maybe even 4 good years (if we're lucky) before that contract is even worse than Phaneuf's was. If he was a FA, I'd be terrified of giving him 8 years at age 32. I think the team that is holding the bag when he truly starts to decline will be very, very unhappy.

If he was signed for only 3 more years, I'd be 100% in your corner yelling "Buy, Buy, Buy!" but specifically Shea Weber's contract is a big no-go for me.

Noting, Weber's contract has been designed so that he is retiring in four or five years. He most certainly is not going to continue playing, for $1 mil in Salary, and even the fifth year, at $3 mil is somewhat questionable. For all practical purposes, this is a Four or Five year contract... and the bonus is, if he retires, we wouldn't have any cap recapture on it.

I'm not saying Weber is the right answer, but judge such a transaction on it as a 4-5 year contract, not an eight year one.

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..and, despite our recent stellar play, our D isn't quite ready. Maybe Lily makes it so in a few years, and patience will be rewarded, but as of now, we aren't quite Cup material, IMO. A strong RHD addition, would make us a Cup contender though, in this case, likely for this year, and another 3-4 years after that.

 

[LeafGrief]

here's the thing - the last 4 years of his deal are actually cheapo years in terms of real salary ($3m, $1m, $1m, $1m), and it's pretty likely that a cap floor team would be happy to take on his fake caphit deal in those years.

True, but that is not guaranteed and will come with a price tag at that point as well. If we had a crystal ball where we could guarantee that he's easy to offload when he starts to go downhill, be it a dump trade, retirement, or a new round of compliance buyouts, then I'd be a lot more comfortable. Heck, if we could convince the Habs to retain 25% I'd probably change my tune as well. But that contract is a hot potato by design and I don't really want that. It could work out and we could see lots of upside, or it could be a disaster in the end. I agree wholeheartedly with your idea that we must be willing to trade to add to our core. But I also think that it is still too early in our competitive window for us to be taking on substantial risk.

Exactly this, well put. So many people want to win now and that's great, I want to win now too. But I want to contend for the next decade+, I've never wavered on that and we should be very leery of making moves that are likely to hurt us 4-5 years down the road. Call me greedy but I want it all.

I think we all want to win now (except for the Eeyore's) and in the future. It is inevitable that we will take some risks that have long-term downside, because on that 4-5 year path we will have lots of opportunities to mitigate those risks elsewhere. Even if we were to go nuts and trade Liljegren and our 1st this year for XYZ (yikes!) we still have a couple of second rounders and a strong prospect pipeline. As long as the organization remains strong, we can take a few risks. Shea Weber crosses the line though

 

[Daisy Jane]

Noting, Weber's contract has been designed so that he is retiring in four or five years. He most certainly is not going to continue playing, for $1 mil in Salary, and even the fifth year, at $3 mil is somewhat questionable. For all practical purposes, this is a Four or Five year contract... and the bonus is, if he retires, we wouldn't have any cap recapture on it.

I'm not saying Weber is the right answer, but judge such a transaction on it as a 4-5 year contract, not an eight year one.

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..and, despite our recent stellar play, our D isn't quite ready. Maybe Lily makes it so in a few years, and patience will be rewarded, but as of now, we aren't quite Cup material, IMO. A strong RHD addition, would make us a Cup contender though, in this case, likely for this year, and another 3-4 years after that.

i truly wonder what the price for weber would be.

 

[LeafGrief]

Noting, Weber's contract has been designed so that he is retiring in four or five years. He most certainly is not going to continue playing, for $1 mil in Salary, and even the fifth year, at $3 mil is somewhat questionable. For all practical purposes, this is a Four or Five year contract... and the bonus is, if he retires, we wouldn't have any cap recapture on it.

I'm not saying Weber is the right answer, but judge such a transaction on it as a 4-5 year contract, not an eight year one.

----------------------------------------

..and, despite our recent stellar play, our D isn't quite ready. Maybe Lily makes it so in a few years, and patience will be rewarded, but as of now, we aren't quite Cup material, IMO. A strong RHD addition, would make us a Cup contender though, in this case, likely for this year, and another 3-4 years after that.

His contract is very explicitly NOT about him retiring in 4-5 years. If he does, Nashville will be absolutely hammered with cap recapture penalties. Those are the low salary years to offset the low cap hit during his high paying ($12m this year) years. Maybe he will retire, I would hope that he might, but that is peeking into the crystal ball again and I don't want to do that.

 

[Razz]

Giving up Lily and our 1st gives me heartburn as well. This is a big deadline for us. Lou has to find a balance of restraint and a commitment to the team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

imo it's not a good idea to plan on dumping a bad contract to a cap floor team, there's only 2 teams today whose cap is under 66 million when the floor is 55.4 million so there's really not many cap floor teams anymore, and if those 2 teams in 3-4 years are even playoff teams they likely wont take him at that point.

I don't think it's a good idea either. Maybe I'm worried about nothing but I dunno, it makes me nervous. The 3rd year of the Marleau deal already makes me nervous, a zillion years of Weber might be more than my heart can take.

Yep, every single cup winner has traded away young assets of similar caliber as Liljegren and a late first round pick in building their cup winner. Most have traded away much more than that.

OK I'm not gong to ask you to make a list, there will be differences in the calibre of prospects,picks and situations etc. I will say this instead - copying what other teams have done isn't mandatory. You're beginning to sound like you're saying we have to trade picks and prospects because that's the way it's done. Nope, every situation is different.

 

[LeafGrief]

And if he only had 3 years left, he'd cost the farm. Truth be told, if he Leafs are serious about making a legit run for the next several years, Weber may be that final piece. His signing bonuses are all paid out and his cap hit as of next year is higher than his actual salary. It's not the end of the world to keep him while our young players are still cost controlled.

If he only had 3 years left, he'd be worth the farm. I agree that he could be the difference maker for the next few years. But for a team that is looking to be competitive in the long term, having $4-5m extra on the cap is a very very big deal. Therefore, I'd go looking elsewhere for a different player who can be that difference maker. I'd rather pay a higher price for a piece with less downside than take a discount that comes with substantial risk.

Giving up Lily and our 1st gives me heartburn as well. This is a big deadline for us. Lou has to find a balance of restraint and a commitment to the team.

Perfectly stated.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Giving up Lily and our 1st gives me heartburn as well. This is a big deadline for us. Lou has to find a balance of restraint and a commitment to the team.

Yup. It used to be easy, we sucked so we didn't have to worry about the present and could make deals with only the future in mind. Now we're good so we have to balance the now with the future. That's a lot harder, no question. It's also awesome though, it means we've arrived as a good team.

 

[Razz]

If he only had 3 years left, he'd be worth the farm. I agree that he could be the difference maker for the next few years. But for a team that is looking to be competitive in the long term, having $4-5m extra on the cap is a very very big deal. Therefore, I'd go looking elsewhere for a different player who can be that difference maker. I'd rather pay a higher price for a piece with less downside than take a discount that comes with substantial risk.



Perfectly stated.

I'm actually less worried about the salary as much as I am his overall fit to the team design. The Leafs are a fast and young team. Does adding Weber help or hurt this group? I'm on the fence about that. I am absolutely giddy with the idea of Weber battling it out with Chara in the playoffs though.

The one major flaw the Leafs have is that steady shutdown posture after taking the lead in tough games. Weber most definitely helps in that.

 

[Razz]

Yup. It used to be easy, we sucked so we didn't have to worry about the present and could make deals with only the future in mind. Now we're good so we have to balance the now with the future. That's a lot harder, no question. It's also awesome though, it means we've arrived as a good team.

Yep most definitely the Leafs have arrived. I think we're in a posture as Zeke mentioned where we are not in a position to get high priced rentals but are in a position to get medium term upgrades at the expense of long term.

 

[Fogelhund]

His contract is very explicitly NOT about him retiring in 4-5 years. If he does, Nashville will be absolutely hammered with cap recapture penalties. Those are the low salary years to offset the low cap hit during his high paying ($12m this year) years. Maybe he will retire, I would hope that he might, but that is peeking into the crystal ball again and I don't want to do that.

Weber's contract was signed before the introduction of the recapture penalties into the CBA... so it was a retirement structure, before Nashville would have known they would be penalized. Yes, they'll get hammered... but, then maybe, they'll trade for him, to avoid such penalties, and pay him to do nothing. But, IMO, his contract written, was essentially a retirement clause... then the Recapture penalty was introduced after the fact.

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Trading Lily also gives me heartburn. I'd happily move any other prospects, except Kap, Lily, Dermott.... I'd be happy to trade off JvR for a prospect or 1st round pick, and flip that... making two first round picks..

 

[Liminality]

i truly wonder what the price for weber would be.

I'm sure the less they retain, the less we'd have to pay them. How far are we willing to go to take on that contract though? I'd rather retain cause 7.8m is a massive contract for 8 or w/e years it was.