Does Toronto make it out of the 1st round next year?

[Sidney the Kidney]

Yea no way they make it out of round 1 with 2 franchise centers and a third elite 2nd line center. Pittsburgh doesn’t have any success using that model

Who is the Leafs' version of 2016 Letang? And considering how much Leaf fans are throwing Andersen under the bus and saying it was him, and not the defense, that cost them against the Bruins, they don't have someone capable of doing what Murray/Fleury did in 2017.

The Penguins also played a much tighter TEAM defensive game than the Leafs have shown so far.

 

[LeafFever]

If they don't get out of round one, does Babcock's leash get tight?

Tighter maybe, but he won't get fired imo.

 

[Melrose Munch]

Tighter maybe, but he won't get fired imo.

Why? It's on Dubas if they don't get out. He should be looking for 2 defensive defensemen right now.

 

[LeafFever]

Who is the Leafs' version of 2016 Letang? And considering how much Leaf fans are throwing Andersen under the bus and saying it was him, and not the defense, that cost them against the Bruins, they don't have someone capable of doing what Murray/Fleury did in 2017.

The Penguins also played a much tighter TEAM defensive game than the Leafs have shown so far.

Morgan Rielly.. People have to stop underrating our legit #1 D.
LOL @ saying Leaf fan are throwing Andersen under the bus. He had a .896 save % in the first round! He gave the Leafs THE worst goaltending out of 16 teams. He is to blame.

 

[LeafFever]

Why? It's on Dubas if they don't get out. He should be looking for 2 defensive defensemen right now.

Why should Dubas be under pressure? He won a calder cup and signed the biggest UFA in over a decade before his team even played a game. There hasn't been a GM have a start like this in well.forveer.
And no, they don't need 2 defensive Dmen at all. The D is being underrated. This is a legit top cup contender right now.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Morgan Rielly.. People have to stop underrating our legit #1 D.
LOL @ saying Leaf fan are throwing Andersen under the bus. He had a .896 save % in the first round! He gave the Leafs THE worst goaltending out of 16 teams. He is to blame.

See, that's your problem. You think Rielly is as good as Letang was at his best. Letang last season was a train wreck, and that's who HF seems to think Letang has always been. Prior to that, he was a top 10 defenseman in hockey. Rielly isn't that (yet). Nowhere did I say Rielly's not a #1. But he's not a top 10 defenseman at this point like Letang was in 2016.

And you just proved my point for me. Part of what allowed the Pens to get away with "less is more" is because Murray and Fleury (Murray in particular) were unbelievable in the playoffs. You just admitted that Andersen was pretty bad. So how is Andersen going to cover for the Leafs' defensive shortcomings when he performs like he did, the same way Murray and Fleury did for the Pens?

 

[Romang67]

Morgan Rielly.. People have to stop underrating our legit #1 D.
LOL @ saying Leaf fan are throwing Andersen under the bus. He had a .896 save % in the first round! He gave the Leafs THE worst goaltending out of 16 teams. He is to blame.

The Leafs also gave up the second highest scoring chances against per 60 out of the 16 teams in the playoffs. So let's not pretend that it was some excellent defensive effort ruined by bad goaltending. It was bad defense and bad goaltending.

 

[LeafFever]

See, that's your problem. You think Rielly is as good as Letang was at his best. Letang last season was a train wreck, and that's who HF seems to think Letang has always been. Prior to that, he was a top 10 defenseman in hockey. Rielly isn't that (yet).

And you just proved my point for me. Part of what allowed the Pens to get away with "less is more" is because Murray and Fleury (Murray in particular) were unbelievable in the playoffs. You just admitted that Andersen was pretty bad. So how is Andersen going to cover for the Leafs' defensive shortcomings when he performs like he did, the same way Murray and Fleury did for the Pens?

But maybe the Leafs defensive shortcommings are not as bad as you believe? I know people love to say Andersen stood on his head and saved the Leafs, but it is not true. The Leafs had the 3rd best GA in the East and were actually #1 after Jan 1st. Andersen had a .918 save %. That's good, but nothing terrific.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

But maybe the Leafs defensive shortcommings are not as bad as you believe? I know people love to say Andersen stood on his head and saved the Leafs, but it is not true. The Leafs had the 3rd best GA in the East and were actually #1 after Jan 1st. Andersen had a .918 save %. That's good, but nothing terrific.

I've already posted the metrics earlier in this thread about where they ranked league-wide in various "shots against" categories. They were bottom third in the league in pretty much all categories, including giving up scoring chances and high danger chances.

Seems the only thing you cling to is their goals against.

 

[Romang67]

But maybe the Leafs defensive shortcommings are not as bad as you believe? I know people love to say Andersen stood on his head and saved the Leafs, but it is not true. The Leafs had the 3rd best GA in the East and were actually #1 after Jan 1st. Andersen had a .918 save %. That's good, but nothing terrific.

Wait, we're back at this again? How does this keep happening? You've been shown time and time again that the Leafs likely had top 5 goaltending in the league, and that their defensive metrics were bottom 10 in the league.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

It’s fun to bury your head about goals against especially when the Leafs had allowed some of the most shots in the league and got killed in metrics in the playoffs.

 

[LeafFever]

Wait, we're back at this again? How does this keep happening? You've been shown time and time again that the Leafs likely had top 5 goaltending in the league, and that their defensive metrics were bottom 10 in the league.

Likely=Did not.

 

[Romang67]

Likely=Did not.

No, likely means almost certainly did. 5th in the league in sv%, 5th in the league in dFSv%

What's your case for why they didn't have top 5 goaltending in the league last season?

 

[Melrose Munch]

Why should Dubas be under pressure? He won a calder cup and signed the biggest UFA in over a decade before his team even played a game. There hasn't been a GM have a start like this in well.forveer.
And no, they don't need 2 defensive Dmen at all. The D is being underrated. This is a legit top cup contender right now.

Stop. The D is awful outside of 2 players.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Wait, we're back at this again? How does this keep happening? You've been shown time and time again that the Leafs likely had top 5 goaltending in the league, and that their defensive metrics were bottom 10 in the league.

Do you want some of my Advils ?

That poster must have shares in that company...

 

[LeafFever]

Stop. The D is awful outside of 2 players.

Not at all. You are wrong. And at least you said 2. There are people on here who think Calvin DeHaan is better than Morgan Rielly.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Not at all. You are wrong. And at least you said 2. There are people on here who think Calvin DeHaan is better than Morgan Rielly.

Advils, anyone ?

 

[Romang67]

Not at all. You are wrong. And at least you said 2. There are people on here who think Calvin DeHaan is better than Morgan Rielly.

You forgot to respond to my numbers with what I can only assume are equally or even more convincing numbers showing that the Leafs certainly didn't have top 5 goaltending last season.

 

[Community]

If the Leafs win the division, they should easily make it out of the first round (80% chance)

If the Leafs finish 2nd/3rd in their division, they will be in tough to make it out of the division.... However, I think it would either be a re-match against BOS or a match-up vs. Florida which would still leave them as likely to move on, but it could still go either way (60% chance).


I don't see BOS beating both TOR and TBL for the division so I think TOR is likely to move out of the first round, but the division standings have a drastic effect on the likelihood.



So, I'm going to go around 70% chance the Leafs move on to the 2nd round.

 

[WJCJ]

I'm going to stop you at the bolded text. Toronto's young players should be even better too...

Maybe, it's definitely a possibility, they really kind of were in a pretty steady holding pattern I thought. Sure, Marner was better but a lot of people say Nylander was worse. Boston's players that I was talking about are all a year behind in terms of development and they have players who played their very first games at the end of the year like Donato who looks like he will be a legit scoring threat for a long time.

If you are trying to find a reason to elevate the Leafs above the Bruins, well, I can't do that at this point but I'm not going to elevate the Bruins over the Leafs either. It's a toss up for me until I see how the season plays out for a little while.

 

[WJCJ]

You are using Boston's "Young players should be even better just from natural progression" reasoning but Toronto has better and younger players than Boston who should also be better just from natural progression?

I explained myself in the post above this one. The Leafs players had their couple years in the NHL, the guys I was talking about have not.

 

[Morbo]

The Leafs got top goaltending in the league? Andersen with an .896 is the reason it went 7 for the Leafs?

sounds like something stronger than Advil is being consumed in this thread.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The Leafs got top goaltending in the league? Andersen with an .896 is the reason it went 7 for the Leafs?

sounds like something stronger than Advil is being consumed in this thread.

[mod]

The discussion was about the type of goaltending the Leafs got in the regular season to counter this "they finished high in goals against, so the defense is good" argument. Bringing up Andersen's stats over a 7 game stretch doesn't change that.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Two years in a row the Leafs have had the most difficult first round opponent of all the teams in the first round.

Because the Atlantic division is so stacked at the top, that probably won't change again, and they'll be playing either the Bolts or Bruins(if they don't win the division).

This is why winning the division is huge for them, and at the very least, grabbing home ice advantage.

Kinda funny, the last few years the Leafs and Jackets both had 105 or more points and started a series on the road...

If the Leafs are truly a cup caliber team they can get by Boston and Tampa, there's nothing particularly remarkable about either team. Don't let the regular season point totals fool you...heck Vegas had 109 points and caps disposed of them with ease. Pittsburgh and Washington had to go through each other and Tampa to win cups.

 

[X66]

If the Leafs are truly a cup caliber team they can get by Boston and Tampa, there's nothing particularly remarkable about either team. Don't let the regular season point totals fool you...heck Vegas had 109 points and caps disposed of them with ease. Pittsburgh and Washington had to go through each other and Tampa to win cups.

The leafs could have won either series they were in the last two years, they were close that happens.

I’m not talking about their total points making them the best team ever, I’m just saying that a team that finishes with 105 points and starting on the road in the first round is kind of bad luck.

Home ice was huge in the Boston series.

But this is a young team and their window is more open than the vast majority of teams, it is what it is.