Do you think the draft lottery is rigged?

[fsanford]

Dear God, do you not understand how to watch a video? The ping pong balls represent the random number generator. Except in this case, it's totally transparent to everyone how the random numbers were selected, instead of flipping open a laptop and firing up Excel and running RANDBETWEEN(1,14) enough times to get four different numbers, and telling everyone "trust me, this is totally on the up-and-up, nothing's been tampered with!"

After a team wins, it's .... eliminated. In this case, it's eliminated by designating its combinations as "redraw." That eliminates the need to figure out who wins, randomly assign their combinations to the winning teams in some proportion, and distribute to teams to review and accept. I mean, I can easily name half a dozen issues with trying to redistribute the winning combinations back to the other teams that would cause more alarm and more cries of IT'S A CONSPIRACY! than simply treating the winning combinations as a redraw.

Seriously, the concept of how it's done isn't difficult to understand.

You're missing the actual intent of the lottery. There's 1001 combinations using 14C4. This gives them the ability to assign values to give each team percentage based on standings. It's designed how they want. They don't want to give equal odds to last place and 15th place.

And how is their a curtain if they show it after? It's Sportsnet who wants to make it exciting and they throw them a bone by giving them a chance to showcase the lottery results before showing the actual lottery drawing - which is attended by a representative of each team, the league and E&Y.

Again, your complaint comes down to...what exactly? You want a random generator on a computer (that isn't as easily verified) compared to one using lottery balls (that is)? Okay...

I am simply stating you want to eliminate conspiracy comments you need complete transparency.
Vegas used to use the little balls for Keno, most got rid of it and go to a computer generated system.

It would not be that hard to do. While there could be doubt, people tend to be more accepting of what they can see vs what they are told that was done behind the scenes.


Option B if the concern is over tanking, then just have the little balls with the team logo determine draft order 1-15.
You don't make the playoff's then you are left up to fate. So be it.

 

[3074326]

Absolutely, think about it. Last season Buffalo and Carolina (2 teams dealing with some attendance issues and long playoff droughts) got the first 2 picks. With Ottawa (Another team dealing with attendance issues at the time and still) getting the third pick. Now 2 NY teams and CHICAGO??? Get the top 3 picks. The biggest market and the 3rd or 4th biggest market in the NHL get the top 3 picks. 2 seasons ago New Jersey and Philly (2 big market teams struggling in mediocrity) got the top 2 picks. With both of them coming in from outside the top 6

So what's your argument? Do they want big market teams to win, do they want small market teams to win? Why did Edmonton win so many? Your argument doesn't make any sense at all. I thought about it like you asked.

 

[Lays]

No, just absolute boneheads coming up with a terrible system.

It’s a good system imo. Bad teams shouldn’t just be handed top picks, the randomness makes it to prevent tanking

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I am simply stating you want to eliminate conspiracy comments you need complete transparency.

They posted the video from the 2018 drawing. Your complaint is ... they didn't show the video from this drawing? If they post the video, will your complaint be that they didn't show it tonight and so "obviously" it was doctored to get the publicized result? Seriously, I don't get the problem here. If you or anyone else have issues with this because there's some alleged lack of transparency, call up a team involved in the lottery and demand answers and see if someone confesses to a nefarious plot.

Vegas used to use the little balls for Keno, they got rid of it and go to a computer generated system.

I hate to break it to you, but this isn't Keno in Vegas. Keno games are going every few minutes, and you're playing under house rules; they don't have time to reload machines for the next game because they're busy making money, and if don't like how the operation works or you think something's screwy then tough shit - go find another game to play, or go somewhere else. This is the NHL, where they're doing three (3) drawings and everyone involved has a vested stake in the results, and they all want as much transparency as possible so that there's no questions as to whether anything might be amiss.

It would not be that hard to do. While there could be doubt, people tend to be more accepting of what they can see vs what they are told that was done behind the scenes.

Do you not get that every team's representative is watching the actual drawing when it happens? Or what, do you think the whole lottery order is decided via secret meeting of the NHL Elders in Bettman's Dark Magic Closet on the 13th floor of the NHL headquarters, after which he and Bill Daly put a hex on all the team reps and they're sworn to secrecy to never say a word about what happened or else Gary will eat their firstborn and their firstborn's firstborn alive inside a pentagram in the offender's living room during a blood red moon?

You don't have to see the drawing; the people representing the teams do. They get full transparency, if something is amiss they get the chance to question things and ask for review and so on. You as a fan get to be entertained, and that's it; if you don't like how you're getting entertained, that's one thing. But to claim the entire thing is shrouded in secrecy because you personally [whether that's specifically you or the more general "you" of whoever's raising these concerns ... or maybe it's both] don't get to observe things in some "sufficient" format that you deem acceptable, ...

You're literally arguing that putting something into a computer - where the results can be MUCH more easily rigged to produce a desired outcome - is more reliable and/or more transparent than using a container of ping pong balls. I'm fathomed that anyone really believes this.

 

[M2Beezy]

Why would the NHL rig it? They just want entertainment and good hockey so people watch it

CASE CLOSED

 

[Paper]

I am simply stating you want to eliminate conspiracy comments you need complete transparency.

If you think going from physical lottery balls that are drawn in person in front of members of each team, the league and EY to a computer program where you click a button and magically three winners appear will eliminate conspiracy theories and not amplify them 100 fold, you clearly don't understand people.

And changing the system because of a couple idiots on messageboards who believe that the league is rigging the lottery for big, small and medium sized markets actually is true, should not be reason to change the system.

 

[Future GOAT]

Absolutely, think about it. Last season Buffalo and Carolina (2 teams dealing with some attendance issues and long playoff droughts) got the first 2 picks. With Ottawa (Another team dealing with attendance issues at the time and still) getting the third pick. Now 2 NY teams and CHICAGO??? Get the top 3 picks. The biggest market and the 3rd or 4th biggest market in the NHL get the top 3 picks. 2 seasons ago New Jersey and Philly (2 big market teams struggling in mediocrity) got the top 2 picks. With both of them coming in from outside the top 6

Rigged!!!

 

[fsanford]

If you think going from physical lottery balls that are drawn in person in front of members of each team, the league and EY to a computer program where you click a button and magically three winners appear will eliminate conspiracy theories and not amplify them 100 fold, you clearly don't understand people.

And changing the system because of a couple idiots on messageboards who believe that the league is rigging the lottery for big, small and medium sized markets actually is true, should not be reason to change the system.

We can agree to disagree, I think it will kill most of this conspiracy crap.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

We can agree to disagree, I think it will kill most of this conspiracy crap.

I would explain [again] that going to any computerized system and away from ping pong balls is the opposite of more transparency and has a much greater chance for being rigged and creating a conspiracy to produce desired results, but I'm just going to let you keep believing that it's better because of whatever reasons you have.

 

[CraigsList]

Since the change to the 1-2-3 format being changed, no, it has not.

 

[pown]

Theres absolutely no way its rigged after what happened with edmonton

 

[The Drop]

It’s a good system imo. Bad teams shouldn’t just be handed top picks, the randomness makes it to prevent tanking

Agreed. But teams that have won shouldn’t be rewarded again for being bad so quickly.

There should be a 3-5yr rule implemented.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Hughes would be a NY Ranger

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Yes that’s why important NBC market Edmonton became a lottery dynasty.

 

[geofff]

Coming from an avs fan... no, I just think it’s a bad system.

 

[Pizza the Hutt]

Absolutely, think about it. Last season Buffalo and Carolina (2 teams dealing with some attendance issues and long playoff droughts) got the first 2 picks. With Ottawa (Another team dealing with attendance issues at the time and still) getting the third pick. Now 2 NY teams and CHICAGO??? Get the top 3 picks. The biggest market and the 3rd or 4th biggest market in the NHL get the top 3 picks. 2 seasons ago New Jersey and Philly (2 big market teams struggling in mediocrity) got the top 2 picks. With both of them coming in from outside the top 6

Amazing detective work. It's almost as if poor performance is linked to poor attendance....

 

[Pizza the Hutt]

Not rigged. Working as expected and that is the problem. I had a rant on the draft lottery last year and it is playing out exactly as I expected. Yes, it stops tanking. But it also punishes teams that are legitimately bad. There are teams that have fallen spots every year since it's implementation. Often times multiple spots.

Hire better GMs. Calgary's highest pick ever is 4th and we were able to climb out of the basement.

 

[63 others]

I mean since the 2005 lottery (Crosby), when the Team won which was under pretty hard pressure, low attendance etc. won, i don't believe one second that the lottery is random.

If it smells like bullshit, it may very well be bullshit

 

[WingsFan95]

Absolutely. A multi-billion dollar organization being random? Unlikely.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

It feels like so in every EA game (Franchise Mode)

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think it is and they are smarter about it than we give them credit for. They purposely send some 1st/2nd OA so it doesn’t look too suspicious when they rig one they really need

 

[M88K]

No but its a horrible system that needs to be changed asap. They overcorrected due to the Oilers and made the wrong kind of adjustments. Instead of preventing teams from repeatedly picking #1, they screwed up the whole system. 18.5%at getting #1 and more than a coinflip to drop from 1 to 4 is garbage and needs to be adressed.

So do you think it is fair that a team that finishes
41-41 for 82p gets a 13.5% chance at 1st, when another team that finished 40-40-2 for 82p gets an 18.5% chance to draft 1st? or in your opinion should be even higher


The difference between LA and Ott was 2 wins (29 to 31)
10 wins separated 31st (OTT) from 18th(Ari)

there are some point differences because of the NHLs loser system,
but 2 wins, yet Ottawa gets 18.5% to draft #1 and La only gets 13.5%?

You think 2wins is worth 5% decrease?
NJ finished with a nearly identical record (1more loser point) than LA, you think that warrants another 2% drop?

The system they have has problems because it puts too much emphasis on rank instead of the actual record. But it is perfectly fine, overall. Teams like Arizona and Montreal , who barely miss the po have such low odds to win (and perhaps it should be lower) that it rarely will impedes deserving teams

 

[Leonhard Euler]

Clearly rigged by Bigfoot who is high on some chemtrails shit.

Also Earth is falt and space is fake.

 

[Esko6]

There is nothing wrong with the system, I love it. I would actually change it so that the second or third worst team has the best chance to pick first, just to making blatant tanking even less optimal.

 

[JoemAvs]

There is nothing wrong with the system, I love it. I would actually change it so that the second or third worst team has the best chance to pick first, just to making blatant tanking even less optimal.

Well the introduction of an even worse system (4 lottery spots, even worse odds) in the NBA has surely stopped tanking, didn't it?
Oh wait. It might have even gotten worse.
The only thing that has been done is making luck at the draw one of the most important factors when it comes to a successful rebuild..
Toronto got lucky or otherwise they probably would have Puljujarvi instead of Matthews if the odds held up. No big deal right?

So do you think it is fair that a team that finishes
41-41 for 82p gets a 13.5% chance at 1st, when another team that finished 40-40-2 for 82p gets an 18.5% chance to draft 1st? or in your opinion should be even higher


The difference between LA and Ott was 2 wins (29 to 31)
10 wins separated 31st (OTT) from 18th(Ari)

there are some point differences because of the NHLs loser system,
but 2 wins, yet Ottawa gets 18.5% to draft #1 and La only gets 13.5%?

You think 2wins is worth 5% decrease?
NJ finished with a nearly identical record (1more loser point) than LA, you think that warrants another 2% drop?

The system they have has problems because it puts too much emphasis on rank instead of the actual record. But it is perfectly fine, overall. Teams like Arizona and Montreal , who barely miss the po have such low odds to win (and perhaps it should be lower) that it rarely will impedes deserving teams

I don't mind adjusting the odds based on record if you believe that is fairer as long as you adress the general problems.
But yeah I think over 82 games a 5 point gap is pretty damn significant.
But the general problem IMO is that 3 lottery spots are too many (teams might tank for top2 but when are there 3 McDavid or Matthews level prospects in one draft? ) and that the odds for the bubble teams are way too good.
I mean the Avs were jumped by bubble teams in their own division that were close to making the playoffs twice in two years.
That shouldn't happen because that does not exactly help with parity if teams like Dallas, Chicago or Philadelphia land top3 picks in consecutive years while horrible teams like the Kings or Sens (if they were a well run franchise) drop to 4 and 5.