Sportsnet: Do We Have a #1 Goalie? All Purpose Goalie Talk

[Nithoniniel]

Bernier has been pretty good for the leafs but the issue is: where does the team see iteself in 3-5 years?

Because that's what a rebuild is going to take (on the short end). Does keeping Bernier here help speed up the rebuild (ie by having a good goaltender already) or prolong it, by having him win gaes that the team would likely be better off losing. I don't have an easier answer for this. He hasn't been playing all that well the last few games, but neither has the team as a whole.

We don't want to do nothing but lose for years anyway, that will break any player we have on the team during that stretch.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

There right in there with other goalies sv %. It doesn't matter if he's below average, average or above average #1 goalie. He is one right now and with the leafs.

lol, I have not given up on either goalie yet. I just answered your question on some one else behalf.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

We don't want to do nothing but lose for years anyway, that will break any player we have on the team during that stretch.

A goalies best friend is said to be the goal posts, that is wrong. A goalies best friend is a defensive system and defenders understanding it who know their goalies strength and weaknesses and help him mask the later.

As it is now neither of our goalies have played in a system beneficial to a goalie and our d-corp have been below average since the lockout, the one in 04-05.

 

[Nithoniniel]

A goalies best friend is said to be the goal posts, that is wrong. A goalies best friend is a defensive system and defenders understanding it who know their goalies strength and weaknesses and help him mask the later.

As it is now neither of our goalies have played in a system beneficial to a goalie and our d-corp have been below average since the lockout, the one in 04-05.

Exactly. I think a good system will limit shots or limit the quality of the shots against, if not both. Toronto has for years now been a team that not only gives up a record amount of shots, but is also the worst in the league in terms of the quality of these shots against.

 

[613Leafer]

I think its important to always have some good goalie prospects in the pipeline. We've only drafted two goalies in the past 8 drafts.

Assuming we're actually rebuilding, we should be acquiring 3-5 extra picks in the first three rounds, maybe even more if we sell off some of our big contracts before the draft.

It'd be nice to see us use a 2nd rounder on a top goalie prospect. At that point, it's a coin flip if youre drafting a skater, so drafting a goalie isnt any less risky. Especially these days, where top top goalie prospects go in the late 1st or 2nd round.

Our NHL goaltending should be decent, maybe even good assuming Bernier can rebound. And Bibeau is a half-decent goalie prospect. But we dont have Lundqvist/Price/Rask calibre goaltending, which can define a franchise, and we dont have a Gibson/Vasilevski/Hutchinson/etc calibre goalie prospect either.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I think its important to always have some good goalie prospects in the pipeline. We've only drafted two goalies in the past 8 drafts.

Assuming we're actually rebuilding, we should be acquiring 3-5 extra picks in the first three rounds, maybe even more if we sell off some of our big contracts before the draft.

It'd be nice to see us use a 2nd rounder on a top goalie prospect. At that point, it's a coin flip if youre drafting a skater, so drafting a goalie isnt any less risky. Especially these days, where top top goalie prospects go in the late 1st or 2nd round.

Our NHL goaltending should be decent, maybe even good assuming Bernier can rebound. And Bibeau is a half-decent goalie prospect. But we dont have Lundqvist/Price/Rask calibre goaltending, which can define a franchise, and we dont have a Gibson/Vasilevski/Hutchinson/etc calibre goalie prospect either.

We don't have that level of goaltending prospect, but finding one is incredibly hard. There is a much larger degree of uncertainty when it comes to draft-eligible goaltenders compared to skaters. I'd rather keep this at low priority until we are deep at other positions.

 

[613Leafer]

We don't have that level of goaltending prospect, but finding one is incredibly hard. There is a much larger degree of uncertainty when it comes to draft-eligible goaltenders compared to skaters. I'd rather keep this at low priority until we are deep at other positions.

2003 - MAF, Crawford, and Howard
2004 - Dubnyk, Shwarz, and Schneider
2005 - Price, Rask, and Plante
2006 - Bernier, Helenius, and Varlamov
2007 - Gisteldt, Lafleur, and Cann
2008 - Chet Pickard, Markstrom, and Allen
2009 - Koskinen, Lehner, Nilsson
2010 - Campbell, Visentin, Calvin Pickard
2011 - Helberg, Gibson, Gibson

I dont think theyre that hard to project. Based on this, roughly 12/27 of the top 3 goalies taken in any given draft became starters or have shown legitimate starter potential.

Given that you can get a top goalie prospect with an early 2nd rounder, especially now that goalies are being drafted later, a 1/3 shot at a starting goaltender is probably better than the chances of finding an impact player at that point in the draft.

And goalies take longer to develop, so id prefer to add a top goalie prospect now then wait until we have all of our other pieces assembled, because if we draft one at that point we'd be waiting 5 years. And if we're rebuilding and adding a significant number of 1st/2nd round picks over the next few drafts, i think its definitely worth taking a flyer on.

 

[Nithoniniel]

2003 - MAF, Crawford, and Howard
2004 - Dubnyk, Shwarz, and Schneider
2005 - Price, Rask, and Plante
2006 - Bernier, Helenius, and Varlamov
2007 - Gisteldt, Lafleur, and Cann
2008 - Chet Pickard, Markstrom, and Allen
2009 - Koskinen, Lehner, Nilsson
2010 - Campbell, Visentin, Calvin Pickard
2011 - Helberg, Gibson, Gibson

I dont think theyre that hard to project. Based on this, roughly 12/27 of the top 3 goalies taken in any given draft became starters or have shown legitimate starter potential.

Given that you can get a top goalie prospect with an early 2nd rounder, especially now that goalies are being drafted later, a 1/3 shot at a starting goaltender is probably better than the chances of finding an impact player at that point in the draft.

And goalies take longer to develop, so id prefer to add a top goalie prospect now then wait until we have all of our other pieces assembled, because if we draft one at that point we'd be waiting 5 years. And if we're rebuilding and adding a significant number of 1st/2nd round picks over the next few drafts, i think its definitely worth taking a flyer on.

Fair enough, I thought the success rate of top goalie prospects were lower than that. You have a good point.

 

[FerrisRox]

GAA is based on how many shots team gave up.

No, it isn't. It's got nothing to do with that.

 

[613Leafer]

GAA is based on how many shots team gave up.

GAA isn't based on how many shots a team gives up. It's how many goals you allow per game...

No, it isn't. It's got nothing to do with that.

Actually GAA is heavily influenced by the number of shots you give up. See attachment below with graph based on this years teams. A regression shows that it's a significant relationship as well, if you're interested in an actual statistical test on it.

Sure, you can point to some outliers, but the general trend is there. More shots against = more goals against.

 

[Duke Silver]

Yes we do. Has he played like one over the last 5 weeks? No.

 

[Duke Silver]

Actually GAA is heavily influenced by the number of shots you give up. See attachment below with graph based on this years teams. A regression shows that it's a significant relationship as well, if you're interested in an actual statistical test on it.

Sure, you can point to some outliers, but the general trend is there. More shots against = more goals against.

I don't understand why people can't grasp this.

A 0.900 goaltender is obviously going to have a different GAA based on whether he faces 20 or 40 shots in a game.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Actually GAA is heavily influenced by the number of shots you give up. See attachment below with graph based on this years teams. A regression shows that it's a significant relationship as well, if you're interested in an actual statistical test on it.

Sure, you can point to some outliers, but the general trend is there. More shots against = more goals against.

I don't understand why people can't grasp this.

A 0.900 goaltender is obviously going to have a different GAA based on whether he faces 20 or 40 shots in a game.

Don't Bernier's stats show that he performs better when he faces more shots?

 

[613Leafer]

Don't Bernier's stats show that he performs better when he faces more shots?

If Bernier is still in the net after 40 shots, chances are he's having a good night. If he gets pulled in the 2nd period after 20 shots, chances are he let in 3+ goals (but would have still been on pace to face a lot of shots).

Attached is a graph that looks at teams shots against average vs team save %. There's zero correlation between the two.

So that graph mixed with the above graph showing a positive relationship between shots against and goals against, indicates that save % isn't impacted by the # of shots you face, but GAA is.

Just look at Bernier. His save % in 2012-2013 (LA) was the same as 2013-2014 (Toronto), but his GAA jumped from 1.88 to 2.70. Is that because he was a worse goalie? No, it was because he was facing way more shots and playing on a crappier team. This year, he's looked like a worse goalie, and his save % has dropped dramatically.

It's not perfect, but save % is a MUCH better metric for judging a goalie than GAA is. GAA is almost entirely impacted by the team you play on. Put Rinne/Lundqvist/Rask on Toronto, and their GAA would be 2.5+ as well.

 

[Gary Batman]

I'm interested in how you came to that conclusion, unless of course you are blaming this skid on the goalies.

How dare someone blame Bernier for having 0.896 save % in the losing streak?

Right???

As bad as offense has been here, Bernier has made his fair contribution towards losing.

 

[Gary Batman]

GAA isn't based on how many shots a team gives up. It's how many goals you allow per game...

GAA isn't based on how many shots a team gives up?

Then explain me this: If a team gives up 100 shots, and a goalie sports a 0.950% save %; that would still be GAA of 5. Exaggerated example, I know, but yes, # of shots allowed does affect GAA.

So, taking into account save % and GAA of both goalies, it doesn't take rocket science to figure that team has allowed more shots when Reimer is in net. And before you use rebound excuse, please provide proof of Reimer's poor rebound control causing shots against to rise significantly.

 

[Suntouchable13]

How dare someone blame Bernier for having 0.896 save % in the losing streak?

Right???

As bad as offense has been here, Bernier has made his fair contribution towards losing.

Yea, but he wouldn't be anywhere near the top of my list as far as blame goes. He would have to have 5 shutouts in January in order for the team to even have a chance to pick up a single point. The goaltending has not been great, but a good team covers up for sub par goaltending for a stretch. The goalies have faced a lot of garbage in front of them.

 

[Gary Batman]

Yea, but he wouldn't be anywhere near the top of my list as far as blame goes.

Definitely not. He isn't at the top of the list for sure.

 

[Menzinger]

Save percentage is by far the best measure of a goalie's performance, especially compared to wins or GAA. I'd rather have a goalie that lets in 3 goals on 40 shots and loses, than one who lets in 2 goals on 20 shots and wins.

Speaking of which:

Mark Masters ‏@markhmasters 7m7 minutes ago
Bernier .892 sv% in last 11 GP dating back to Dec. 31
Reimer .921 sv% in last 7 appearances dating back to Dec. 29

 

[Nithoniniel]

Save percentage is by far the best measure of a goalie's performance, especially compared to wins or GAA. I'd rather have a goalie that lets in 3 goals on 40 shots and loses, than one who lets in 2 goals on 20 shots and wins.

Speaking of which:

Mark Masters ‏@markhmasters 7m7 minutes ago
Bernier .892 sv% in last 11 GP dating back to Dec. 31
Reimer .921 sv% in last 7 appearances dating back to Dec. 29

You also want to avoid judging goaltenders on normal sv% as it can change a lot due to team effectiveness on the PK, which is why even strength save percentage is even better.

If you also look at metrics to show how many of shots faced are from high scoring areas, you have a pretty good way of looking at a goaltenders effectiveness as an individual.

 

[Snow Dog]

Save percentage is by far the best measure of a goalie's performance, especially compared to wins or GAA. I'd rather have a goalie that lets in 3 goals on 40 shots and loses, than one who lets in 2 goals on 20 shots and wins.

Speaking of which:

Mark Masters ‏@markhmasters 7m7 minutes ago
Bernier .892 sv% in last 11 GP dating back to Dec. 31
Reimer .921 sv% in last 7 appearances dating back to Dec. 29

I'm not the least bit surprised.Reimer has been playing well despite the losses.Maybe he's finally got his concussion done with.

 

[ironhorse384]

Exactly. I think a good system will limit shots or limit the quality of the shots against, if not both. Toronto has for years now been a team that not only gives up a record amount of shots, but is also the worst in the league in terms of the quality of these shots against.

Even if you limit the shots that doesn't necessarily guarantee you success. Dryden still had to be able to make a few good stops after being bored to death. You need a guy who's head is in the game regardless if the team is being outshot or not. Both of these guys suffer from varying degrees of brain cramps`at different times and there doesn't seem to be any consistency to either of their games.

 

[ConnorTO]

reimer in

bernier OUT

 

[Jer416]

reimer in

bernier OUT

Actaully, I think that was Reimer who was OUT of the net...
Sigh...BOTH goalies gotta pick it up, but so does the team..its been a rough stretch

 

[Wendelstache]

Reimer also go the memo, loves how he took himself out of position trying to make a save on a shot 4 ft away from the net.

Good way to up the save % ???