Dion Phaneuf contract talk: Twitter, THN, TheStar links

[zeke]

I think the Hawks comparison is instructive.

People automatically associate Phaneuf with being a Seabrook-level defenseman (or less), with Keith far ahead of both of them.

The truth is that Phaneuf should be considered on the Keith level of true #1 dmen, even if you like Keith a bit better, and well ahead of Seabrook who slots nicely as a good #2 dman.


Career

D D.Phaneuf (28): 602gms, 107gls, 342pts, 1483ht, 793bk, 25:02 (82gms, 15gls, 47pts, 202ht, 108bk)
D D.Keith (30): 608gms, 59gls, 310pts, 429ht, 956bk, 25:23 (82gms, 8gls, 42pts, 58ht, 129bk)
D B.Seabrook (28): 600gms, 57gls, 247pts, 1341ht, 1010bk, 22:33 (82gms, 8gls, 34pts, 183ht, 138bk)


Last 2yrs:

D D.Phaneuf (28): 130gms, 21gls, 72pts, 345ht, 218bk, 25:15 (82gms, 13gls, 45pts, 218ht, 138bk)
D D.Keith (30): 121gms, 7gls, 67pts, 64ht, 187bk, 25:49 (82gms, 5gls, 45pts, 43ht, 127bk)
D B.Seabrook (28): 125gms, 17gls, 54pts, 304ht, 268bk, 23:42 (82gms, 11gls, 35pts, 199ht, 176bk)


Last Season:

D D.Phaneuf (28): 48gms, 9gls, 28pts, 131ht, 91bk, 25:11 (82gms, 15gls, 48pts, 224ht, 156bk)
D D.Keith (30): 47gms, 3gls, 27pts, 19ht, 66bk, 24:07 (82gms, 5gls, 47pts, 33ht, 115bk)
D B.Seabrook (28): 47gms, 8gls, 20pts, 106ht, 103bk, 22:00 (82gms, 14gls, 35pts, 185ht, 180bk)


Phaneuf and Keith are true 25+mpg, all situation, #1 defensemen.

Seabrook is a good step under them, with a much more limited skillset, and is a good #2 (though Hjalmarsson has slowly but steadily eaten away at his minutes and seabrook may now be the #3 dman on the hawks).


and before you kneejerk a LOL THEY"RE BETTER DEFENSIVELY response, remember that they're not even the top defensive matchup pair on their team - it's the Hjalmarsson/Oduya pair that gets the toughest minutes against the other teams' top forwards, not the Keith/Seabrook pair.

 

[The Apologist]

To each their own. Both have their merits.

I was just obliging your request. I do disagree with you however.

 

[The Apologist]

I like him better than a few guys, but I was trying to give credit where certain fan bases do. I like him better than Kronwall, Giradri, McD, Bouwmeester, Shattenkirk, Byfuglien.
However like I said, I can see where some people would put the guys above ahead of them, but myself who doesn't miss a Leaf game I can certainly put Phaneuf ahead of these guys just as easily.

Agreed. I don't expect anyone outside of Toronto to give him any credit though, it just doesnt happen. Unless they're traded or bought out of course, then value sky rockets.

 

[The Apologist]

Don't know about you but,

i'm ok if my top D does not play in all situations, not a fan of burning out my D with 30 mins a night, unless they are that very very rare bird the excels at 30 mins per.

Which is all fine and dandy, that an opinion, but are you giving credit where it's due?

Phaneuf may not put up the points some of them do, but he puts up great points regardless AND has a physical element in par with the best in the game.

I personally love a guy who excels in more than one situation.

 

[shakes]

Don't know about you but,

i'm ok if my top D does not play in all situations, not a fan of burning out my D with 30 mins a night, unless they are that very very rare bird the excels at 30 mins per.

Except that when your name is Kessel, then the player is considered one dimensional.

 

[Dreakmur]

I think the Hawks comparison is instructive.

People automatically associate Phaneuf with being a Seabrook-level defenseman (or less), with Keith far ahead of both of them.

The truth is that Phaneuf should be considered on the Keith level of true #1 dmen, even if you like Keith a bit better, and well ahead of Seabrook who slots nicely as a good #2 dman.


Career

D D.Phaneuf (28): 602gms, 107gls, 342pts, 1483ht, 793bk, 25:02 (82gms, 15gls, 47pts, 202ht, 108bk)
D D.Keith (30): 608gms, 59gls, 310pts, 429ht, 956bk, 25:23 (82gms, 8gls, 42pts, 58ht, 129bk)
D B.Seabrook (28): 600gms, 57gls, 247pts, 1341ht, 1010bk, 22:33 (82gms, 8gls, 34pts, 183ht, 138bk)


Last 2yrs:

D D.Phaneuf (28): 130gms, 21gls, 72pts, 345ht, 218bk, 25:15 (82gms, 13gls, 45pts, 218ht, 138bk)
D D.Keith (30): 121gms, 7gls, 67pts, 64ht, 187bk, 25:49 (82gms, 5gls, 45pts, 43ht, 127bk)
D B.Seabrook (28): 125gms, 17gls, 54pts, 304ht, 268bk, 23:42 (82gms, 11gls, 35pts, 199ht, 176bk)


Last Season:

D D.Phaneuf (28): 48gms, 9gls, 28pts, 131ht, 91bk, 25:11 (82gms, 15gls, 48pts, 224ht, 156bk)
D D.Keith (30): 47gms, 3gls, 27pts, 19ht, 66bk, 24:07 (82gms, 5gls, 47pts, 33ht, 115bk)
D B.Seabrook (28): 47gms, 8gls, 20pts, 106ht, 103bk, 22:00 (82gms, 14gls, 35pts, 185ht, 180bk)


Phaneuf and Keith are true 25+mpg, all situation, #1 defensemen.

Seabrook is a good step under them, with a much more limited skillset, and is a good #2 (though Hjalmarsson has slowly but steadily eaten away at his minutes and seabrook may now be the #3 dman on the hawks).


and before you kneejerk a LOL THEY"RE BETTER DEFENSIVELY response, remember that they're not even the top defensive matchup pair on their team - it's the Hjalmarsson/Oduya pair that gets the toughest minutes against the other teams' top forwards, not the Keith/Seabrook pair.

This is where I go back to the "Dion is surrounded by garbage" argument. When handling ice time, the coach with multiple good choices will tend to spread out the responsibility, and the coach with fewer good choices will tend to pile the ice time on.

 

[zeke]

he's not surrounded by garbage at all.

tommorrow night the leafs will be icing 6 defensemen with clear top-4 talent.

they're a little on the inexperienced side, is all.

 

[Inconceivable]

This is where I go back to the "Dion is surrounded by garbage" argument. When handling ice time, the coach with multiple good choices will tend to spread out the responsibility, and the coach with fewer good choices will tend to pile the ice time on.

That argument is not relevant even if it were true. The stats show that he is doing fine in his role as a #1 dman

 

[TMLife*]

100% on zeke's side. Everything points to the fact Dion is a #1 dman and doing a damn good job at it.

 

[The Apologist]

This is where I go back to the "Dion is surrounded by garbage" argument. When handling ice time, the coach with multiple good choices will tend to spread out the responsibility, and the coach with fewer good choices will tend to pile the ice time on.

Yet Keith gets 25 plus a night. Are you saying Chicago's d is terrible?

 

[The Apologist]

That argument is not relevant even if it were true. The stats show that he is doing fine in his role as a #1 dman

I'm not even sure how its debateable anymore

 

[The Magic Man]

This is where I go back to the "Dion is surrounded by garbage" argument. When handling ice time, the coach with multiple good choices will tend to spread out the responsibility, and the coach with fewer good choices will tend to pile the ice time on.

If you check out ice time for the last 2 games, Cody Franson is starting to eat into that time for Dion. I love it. He seems to play a very smart game so far this year.

 

[Ace88*]

If you check out ice time for the last 2 games, Cody Franson is starting to eat into that time for Dion. I love it. He seems to play a very smart game so far this year.

Me too. I think Franson is playing with a chip on his shoulder. He really looks like he wants to earn that contract he's been after for a couple years now, and if he keeps playing like this, anything under $5 million is a bargain. He's quickly approaching the Seidenberg, Wideman, Vancouver-era Ohlund level.

 

[zeke]

If you check out ice time for the last 2 games, Cody Franson is starting to eat into that time for Dion. I love it. He seems to play a very smart game so far this year.

Franson is playing great, and looking like Dion Jr. out there.

that being said, he's not actually eating into Dion's minutes - Dion has played ~27mpg the first two games.

Dion's playing more so far, not less - and playing great.

 

[ryno23]

Phaneuf is a hard case.

Just watch a game and how many times are you yelling at the TV "****ing Phaneuf" then 5 mins later he scores a huge goal or something good happens.

He is Jeckel and Hyde personified. Can you pay him 7 or 8 million with that play? Does the Leafs have anything better to replace him with?

Very tough negotiations for both parties. If he decided that yeah I want to stay and will sign for 6 million then sure take him back.

 

[Pi]

Phaneuf is a hard case.

Just watch a game and how many times are you yelling at the TV "****ing Phaneuf" then 5 mins later he scores a huge goal or something good happens.

He is Jeckel and Hyde personified. Can you pay him 7 or 8 million with that play? Does the Leafs have anything better to replace him with?

Very tough negotiations for both parties. If he decided that yeah I want to stay and will sign for 6 million then sure take him back.

All defenseman make mistakes.

If you watch another team as much as the Leafs, you will pull your hair out on some of the habits of other elite defenseman too.

Dion is a top 15D in this league. He'll never be noticed for it...media perception beats it all.

Dion = Cancer, overrated.
Kessel = One dimensional winger.
Reimer = Bad goalie.
Leafs = Lucky.

You just can't change any of that in the eyes of the media.

 

[Dreakmur]

Yet Keith gets 25 plus a night. Are you saying Chicago's d is terrible?

No, it means Keith is really great. Take Seabrook away, and Keith plays even more. Bring Seabrook into Toronto, and Phaneuf plays less.

 

[34]

Trade him.

I would not pay him a dime over $5M.

 

[The Apologist]

All defenseman make mistakes.

If you watch another team as much as the Leafs, you will pull your hair out on some of the habits of other elite defenseman too.

Dion is a top 15D in this league. He'll never be noticed for it...media perception beats it all.

Dion = Cancer, overrated.
Kessel = One dimensional winger.
Reimer = Bad goalie.
Leafs = Lucky.

You just can't change any of that in the eyes of the media.

In a huge Preds fan myself. Can't even count the number of times I would lose it on Weber or Suter....

 

[The Apologist]

No, it means Keith is really great. Take Seabrook away, and Keith plays even more. Bring Seabrook into Toronto, and Phaneuf plays less.

That's gonna be a tough one for you to prove.

 

[Porn*]

6.5 is too much unless it's signed after the season and he returns to form. calgary era form when he played like a tank, got 17ish goals and 40ish points.

if he keeps the course i'd give him no more then 5.9.

 

[The Apologist]

6.5 is too much unless it's signed after the season and he returns to form. calgary era form when he played like a tank, got 17ish goals and 40ish points.

if he keeps the course i'd give him no more then 5.9.

He's easily a 6.5 D in today's NHL.

 

[Dreakmur]

That's gonna be a tough one for you to prove.

I would have thought relying on logic would be good enough, but apparently not.

 

[Silver91]

No, it means Keith is really great. Take Seabrook away, and Keith plays even more. Bring Seabrook into Toronto, and Phaneuf plays less.

Forgot I quoted this. Yeah, that makes zero sense. You're saying Seabrook eats into Keith's ice-time even though they play together, so no, his ice wouldn't change, only players like Hammer/Oduya/Leddy would see increases in ice-time. As for Dion, if somehow we got Seabrook, depending on who left the defence (if it was say Fraser or Gunnarson, players who play the same role as Seabrook - defensive d-men) then again, Dion's ice stays the same. If it's a guy like Gardiner or Franson removed, and we're adding another defensive minded d-man in Seabrook to who we have, maybe Dion's ice time drops a bit, but still unlikely or not by much since he's better than everyone else still anyway.

6.5 is too much unless it's signed after the season and he returns to form. calgary era form when he played like a tank, got 17ish goals and 40ish points.

if he keeps the course i'd give him no more then 5.9.

You mean like how 2 seasons ago he scored 12 goals and 44 points? Or played at a 15 goal/48 point last year?

Dion is definitely worth 6.5 today. If you compare to what other elite D-men are getting paid in the first 8 years of their contracts, he's probably worth as much as 7-7.5...the only question is how long will he be worth that? If he's willing to sign for 6-7 years at 6.5, I think it's an easy negotiation and he's signed by Christmas at the latest. Probably closer to American Thanksgiving.

 

[The Apologist]

I would have thought relying on logic would be good enough, but apparently not.

Opinion and logic are not the same thing.

Your logic: Phaneuf plays more because he has to. Keith plays more because he's good.

You say Seabrook would make Phaneuf play less, what logic are you referring to?