Speculation: Did RNH just become (more) available?

[Cawz]

by that logic Galchenyuks value is that of a 65 point player as that was his pace last year with injury 44 in 61 games and had 54 the prior year with 30 goals.

I dont think you understand what the work "logic" means if thats what you got out of my post.

 

[Cawz]

https://twitter.com/dstaples/status/898543244635656193

Oilers gearing up to “sell well below market value†on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, hockey commentator says

You forgot the "Hmmmm" part, after which Staples debunks that thought.

 

[LaP]

They would have to be out of their minds to pay Dry Saddle that kind of money to play with McDavid. You pay Dry Saddle that money to make another Patrick Maroon. Turn 15 goal guys into 27 goal guys.

Exactly. Outside of the PP there's no point paying a winger 8.5 millions to play with McJesus. In fact you simply can't pay a winger 8.5 millions to play with McJesus or else you'll face cap trouble sooner than later. The point of having a player like McJesus is he will turn 3rd line wingers into 30 goals scorer.

If you pay Draistl 8.5 millions it's to be to McJEsus what Malkin is to Crosby or what Fedorov was to Yzerman or Forsberg was to Sakic.

They'll play together on the PP but at ES they'll play on different lines if Edmonton's management and coach are competent. If Edmonton waits to be in cap trouble to trade RNH his value will be diminished.

 

[TS Quint]

3rd liner and 4th rounder is my expectation

Stop being reasonable. You're wrecking my post.

 

[Spawn]

RNH fanboys like David Staples still expecting RNH to have a breakout year lol. And his cap projections for 2017-2020 are extremely generous on basically every single player the Oilers are going to need to sign. Considering how poor of a negotiator Chiarelli seems to be, there is no way he's going to be signing all of the deals that David Staples thinks are possible.

Oilers are going to be forced to dump RNH next summer. Absolute best case scenario is they get an underperforming 3C making ~3M back in return. Basically a rehash of the Eberle for Strome deal. But Eberle is a better player than RNH, so in another season after another garbage year I doubt the Oilers will even be able to return that.

If some team offered a 3C signed for ~3M right now I take it all day every day and thank my lucky stars to be rid of him.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

RNH fanboys like David Staples still expecting RNH to have a breakout year lol. And his cap projections for 2017-2020 are extremely generous on basically every single player the Oilers are going to need to sign. Considering how poor of a negotiator Chiarelli seems to be, there is no way he's going to be signing all of the deals that David Staples thinks are possible.

Oilers are going to be forced to dump RNH next summer. Absolute best case scenario is they get an underperforming 3C making ~3M back in return. Basically a rehash of the Eberle for Strome deal. But Eberle is a better player than RNH, so in another season after another garbage year I doubt the Oilers will even be able to return that.

If some team offered a 3C signed for ~3M right now I take it all day every day and thank my lucky stars to be rid of him.

Chiarelli signed our #1 defenceman and elite starting goalie for less than 8.5 million combined. He also traded garbage for Maroon (retained) and what was left of Ben Scrivens for Zack Kassian. I wouldn't say that he's a poor negotiator at all. Like most GM's, he assigns certain things more importance than the fanbase does.

No one hits home runs 100% of the time.

 

[smirob]

Chiarelli signed our #1 defenceman and elite starting goalie for less than 8.5 million combined. He also traded garbage for Maroon (retained) and what was left of Ben Scrivens for Zack Kassian. I wouldn't say that he's a poor negotiator at all. Like most GM's, he assigns certain things more importance than the fanbase does.

No one hits home runs 100% of the time.

Talbot is a good goalie, but let's not call him Elite quite yet.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Not really. He got 43 last year which was a down year, but was playing at a 50+ point pace the year before. He played at a 60 point pace the year before that (56 points, missing 6 games).

So 1 injury plagued year and then 1 down year. Coupled together obviously leads to disappointment and he has to turn it around this year, but what you said is misleading.

I didn't say anything about his pace. He hovered around 40 points. There is nothing misleading about that. The fact he is often injured doesn't help his case either.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

You are assuming that the cap basically stays flat which has only happened when one of two things occurred:

1) The worst financial crisis in half a century.
2) A new CBA dropped the players share from 57%-50%.

Last year the cap rose $2M despite a drop in the $CDN that took about $300K off the cap and a reduction in the use of the escalator form 5% to 1.35% that took another $2.7M off the cap.

If you take out currency and the reduction of the escalator the cap would have gone from $69M in 2014-2015 to about $83M. That's an average organic growth of about 6.7% per year.

This year the $CDN is up enough to actually add about $1-1.2M to the cap. The new Adidas deal kicks in adding about $600K to the cap. And the new arena in Detroit opens. Combined these three items would alone add close to $2M to the cap. Addd in organic growth of 5% which is lower than the average over the last three years and the cap is near $81M. Even if the NHLPA cut the escalator back to 0 the cap could still be over $80M.

Here is a possible 22 man roster at $80M.

Maroon ($3.8M) McDavid ($12.5M) Strome ($3.6M)
Caggiula ($2M) Draisaitl ($8.5M) Puljujarvi ($.925M)
Lucic($6M) RNH ($6M) Slepyshev ($1.2M)
Khaira ($.675M) Jokinen ($1.5M) Kassian ($1.9M)
Gambardella ($.725M)

Klefbom ($4.17M) Larsson ($4.17M)
Sekera ($5.5M) Russell ($4M)
Nurse ($2.5M) Benning ($2.3M)
Auvitu ($.8M)

Talbot ($4.167M)
Brossoit ($.8M)

With the Pouliot buyout the cap hit is $79.15M which leaves about $800K in space. This would assume bridges for Nurse and Benning. (And there is virtually no chance they have bonus overages this year by the way. )

For the $80M cap to have at least a 50-50 chance of happening all that would really have to occur would be the $CDN to stay pretty much where it is and the NHLPA keep the escalator at about 1%. (Though Vegas is a wild card because we do not know how they will be feathered in so if they are fully included no one has any clue what the cap might be.)

From here he Oilers have lots of options if the have to cut back because a player has had a break out season. And since no one has a crystal ball to see where the cap will be the best course of action is to play this year out with the strongest roster they can.

Cap increases due to escalator... but escrow takes back 18% of the overage

So really no miricle necessary to kill cap growth... just need players to say no more using our money to create fake cap projections

 

[Fourier]

Cap increases due to escalator... but escrow takes back 18% of the overage

So really no miricle necessary to kill cap growth... just need players to say no more using our money to create fake cap projections

You keep repeating this stuff despite being repeatedly corrected, but all it does is to show that you do not know how the cap or escalator work. If this is the case why should anyone take your cap projections seriously.

If the escalator is the same from year to year, which it almost always has been, the cap rises because revenue rises. The escalator is applied after the current year preliminary revenue totals are tallied so its impact is not compounded. It's purpose is to build in an estimate for revenue increases year to year not to artificially raise the cap. There are no "fake revenue projections".

If you don't believe me wander over to the Business Board and ask someone like mouser or kdb if the cap has only gone up over the years because of the escalator. Tell them I sent you and I am sure they will straighten us out. If either agrees with you then I will retract my claim and publically apologize. It would be nice if you would do the same if it turns out that I am correct but of course that is up to you.

As for escrow as I have again explained this is because teams spend to close to the cap and that the player's share is based on the midpoint with the cap set off the midpoint by formula.

Final escrow this year should be less for two reasons. The first is that the presence of Vegas has opened up cap space for many teams. We could see about 2-3M more space on average than in the past that in itself could reduce escrow by up to about 5%.

The second reason is the reduction in the escalator from 5% to 1.35%. Combine these two and you likely cut escrow in half.

Then you have the rising $CDN which bumps up the next year's revenue on which the final escrow calculation is based.

Bottom line the only relevance to my post that the escalator has is the possibility that the NHLPA changes it again next year. But at the very most this could be a 1.35% draw on the cap and I already included this in my calculations.

90% of this debate is about the cap yet the vast majority have not actually taken the time to find out what sort of shape the Oilers really are in. Since none of us has a crystal ball the best we could do is speculation, but at least that speculation can be based on a correct understanding of the rules of the game and of the team's actually circumstances!

And as a bone I will say that I checked the previous year's $CDN and the late rise actually took it to par with the previous year so you can ignore my $300K comment in the post you quoted as the currency impact last year was minimal.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Talbot is a good goalie, but let's not call him Elite quite yet.

He was absolutely elite last season. We'll see if he can keep it up, but fourth in Vezina voting last season? Elite.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Would Oilers fans do something around Sheary for RNH? Sheary can play either wing, but I imagine he'll play RW with McDavid and Draisaitl would slide to 2C. I imagine the Penguins would add, but I'm not sure how much.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Would Oilers fans do something around Sheary for RNH? Sheary can play either wing, but I imagine he'll play RW with McDavid and Draisaitl would slide to 2C. I imagine the Penguins would add, but I'm not sure how much.

As an oiler fan I wouild do that deal--not sure about my fellow oiler fans though

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

As an oiler fan I wouild do that deal--not sure about my fellow oiler fans though

Really? I think you are selling low

 

[Jumptheshark]

Really? I think you are selling low

Sheary is on 3 mill a year less--while he is a bit small, Sheary with three years left would fill the spot that Yamamoto would get in 3 years

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Sheary is on 3 mill a year less--while he is a bit small, Sheary with three years left would fill the spot that Yamamoto would get in 3 years

Still not enough value for RNH imo...

Could you imagine Stepan being traded for Sheary? or Turris being traded for Sheary?

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Plekanec and Gallagher for RNH and a 2nd. Easy peezy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Still not enough value for RNH imo...

Could you imagine Stepan being traded for Sheary? or Turris being traded for Sheary?

That's a little different because those teams don't have McDavid. The big concern with Sheary is whether he's able to produce at the level he has produced at without Crosby, but he'd be playing with McDavid in Edmonton so that concern isn't an issue. I think it's safe to say Sheary with an elite center is a 60 point winger.

Sheary has different values to different teams IMO, he's more valuable to teams with a top end center to play him with. He'd be less valuable to Ottawa or Nashville than he'd be to Edmonton or Washington. I also think the Penguins would be adding on top of Sheary, I just don't know how much.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Still not enough value for RNH imo...

Could you imagine Stepan being traded for Sheary? or Turris being traded for Sheary?

Disagree

Factor in the 3 mill being saved

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

He was absolutely elite last season. We'll see if he can keep it up, but fourth in Vezina voting last season? Elite.

just don't do to him what we did to cam ward

no matter how good your starter is

no one should be playing 75 games a season

 

[ChaoticOrange]

just don't do to him what we did to cam ward

no matter how good your starter is

no one should be playing 75 games a season

Agreed. Though Talbot likes to play a lot, if it were me coaching I'd try to cap him at 65 games.

I think the organization is more comfortable with Brossoit at the NHL level now. Jonas Gustavsson was a blunder. God that guy is awful.

 

[Soundwave]

RNH fanboys like David Staples still expecting RNH to have a breakout year lol. And his cap projections for 2017-2020 are extremely generous on basically every single player the Oilers are going to need to sign. Considering how poor of a negotiator Chiarelli seems to be, there is no way he's going to be signing all of the deals that David Staples thinks are possible.

Oilers are going to be forced to dump RNH next summer. Absolute best case scenario is they get an underperforming 3C making ~3M back in return. Basically a rehash of the Eberle for Strome deal. But Eberle is a better player than RNH, so in another season after another garbage year I doubt the Oilers will even be able to return that.

If some team offered a 3C signed for ~3M right now I take it all day every day and thank my lucky stars to be rid of him.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's dealt for a winger or D-Man instead of a center.

Strome can play center and could be moved into the role RNH has now for probably a lot cheaper.

In any case, I don't see the Oilers moving until next summer.

 

[Whileee]

https://twitter.com/dstaples/status/898543244635656193

Oilers gearing up to “sell well below market value†on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, hockey commentator says

Below Oiler fan expectations would probably be more accurate. He's been available long enough that Chirelli is getting what the market will bare.

Exactly. How do you sell "below market value"? By definition, the value they receive on the open market is "market value", unless they deliberately take a trade that doesn't bring the highest value available on the market.

 

[ThomasG]

Talbot is a good goalie, but let's not call him Elite quite yet.

He had an elite season and will continue to

 

[34]

I heard the Habs were looking for a Centre

Habs already have enough 3rd/4th line players. They do not need RNH.