Speculation: Did RNH just become (more) available?

[PatrikBerglund]

Anaheim needs to get some youth down the middle to fill in when Kes and Getty lose a couple of steps.

RNH for Theo + small dump?

 

[Fatass]

Anaheim needs to get some youth down the middle to fill in when Kes and Getty lose a couple of steps.

RNH for Theo + small dump?

RNH is not getting traded until next summer. And then it will be for futures. The Oilers can't afford more contracts.

 

[nucks88]

Maybe but he didn't magically become more trade able.

 

[Captain97]

Hell no....take out Plekanec and we got something going....

I thought oilers needed a checking C if they traded RNH? either way habs have the space to keep pleky if the deal is like. I think the habs do that deal.

Gallagher+2018 1st
for
RNH

 

[Captain97]

RNH is not getting traded until next summer. And then it will be for futures. The Oilers can't afford more contracts.

Will it be just picks and prospects, what do the oilers need in terms of prospects?

 

[Konami McDavid]

I honestly think your low on some of those, if Nurse has any kind of decent season he's going to ask for and get 3 or more. I doubt that your going to find too many decent top 6 guys for 3.5.

Its going to take more then trading Nuge at this point.

You don't need a $4m+ winger playing in the spots I am referring to at $3.5m. You will have Lucic and Drai on one line with a lower caliber $3.5m a year player , and McD with Puljujarvi (hopefully by 2018-2019) and a lower caliber $3.5m a year player. Once the lower caliber players contract is up, and they have had their value inflated (Maroon, and I love the guy but its just reality), they either sign low, or you let them go and watch another team get frustrated at the reduced production and high pricetag. Then replace with another cheap option, rinse, and repeat.

You can't pay Benning and Nurse $3m each or more to be your third pairing. I expect them both to take a 1 year bridge contract worth around $2m - $2.5m. After that both Sekera's and Russel's modified NTC kicks in enabling them to be traded. Sekera names 15 teams (half the league), and Russel names 10 (one third). Then you keep whoever is most valuable and trade the other two. If you trade either Sekera or Russel, you move them for next to nothing to make it work, but if you move Nurse or Benning you should get more. Then put the next defenders you have waiting in the funnel on the third pairing (Ethen Bear and Caleb Jones most likely).

This is the Oiler's reality. It will be a revolving door of less expensive players in a lot of positions. You can make it work though.

Nuge is gone, and that should be enough relief next year for Chiarelli to ice a very good team in 2018-2019.

 

[crowi]

Anaheim needs to get some youth down the middle to fill in when Kes and Getty lose a couple of steps.

RNH for Theo + small dump?

Theodore plays for Las Vegas and no Ducks don't need a $6M 3C.

 

[CaptainCrunch67]

You don't need a $4m+ winger playing in the spots I am referring to at $3.5m. You will have Lucic and Drai on one line with a lower caliber $3.5m a year player , and McD with Puljujarvi (hopefully by 2018-2019) and a lower caliber $3.5m a year player. Once the lower caliber players contract is up, and they have had their value inflated (Maroon, and I love the guy but its just reality), they either sign low, or you let them go and watch another team get frustrated at the reduced production and high pricetag. Then replace with another cheap option, rinse, and repeat.

You can't pay Benning and Nurse $3m each or more to be your third pairing. I expect them both to take a 1 year bridge contract worth around $2m - $2.5m. After that both Sekera's and Russel's modified NTC kicks in enabling them to be traded. Sekera names 15 teams (half the league), and Russel names 10 (one third). Then you keep whoever is most valuable and trade the other two. If you trade either Sekera or Russel, you move them for next to nothing to make it work, but if you move Nurse or Benning you should get more. Then put the next defenders you have waiting in the funnel on the third pairing (Ethen Bear and Caleb Jones most likely).

This is the Oiler's reality. It will be a revolving door of less expensive players in a lot of positions. You can make it work though.

Nuge is gone, and that should be enough relief next year for Chiarelli to ice a very good team in 2018-2019.

I think you're being optimistic in your numbers that's all.

Nuge might be gone, but I doubt anyone is just going to take his whole 6 million dollar salary, not for what he brings to the table. the Oilers will either have to eat contract, take back a smaller but unsavory contract, or add a major piece as incentive.

 

[VainGretzky]

We have to accept that Nuge is gone, and we are not getting much for him. Every team will look at our cap next season, and realize that it is unmanageable with Nuge on the books. Without him I don't see much of an issue with icing a good team, but something has to give next year.

Without any moves, and a stagnant cap next year, we have $12.5m in cap space with a minimum of 10 contract to sign with the money. we will need;

-1 top 6 RW (or Strome re-sign) $3.5m
-1 top 6 LW (or Maroon re-sign) $3.5m
-Drake Caggiulla re-sign $1.25m
-3rd line LW (or Jokinen re-sign) $2.5m
-Pakarainen $950k
-Slepychev re-sign $1.25m
-4th line C (or Letestu re-sign) $1.25m
-Benning re-sign $2m
-Nurse re-sign $2m

This can be done without taking a serious step back for $18.2m. That leaves the Oilers with a hole of $5.7m. A little added relief if an entry level contract can fill in for any of the above.

Bye Nuge. I really appreciated what you could do, but you will not fit after this year. Kudos to whoever gets him, you will pay next to nothing, and you will really like the player you get.

Maroon and Joikinen will not be here next season that's 6 million right there Pakarainen wont be as well benning will get about 1.5 and Letestu wont be signing for 1.2 your list is not even close and the cap has never been stagnant ever it will be min 78 next season

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Use Capfriendly my friend, it's easier.

McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Larsson, Talbot. Those are the five that matter.

Oilers have young cheap talent like Caggiula, Slepyshev, Puljujarvi to slot in. Maroon is nice but McDavid floats all boats, there are a lot of players we could slot at 1LW.

Assuming a flat cap the Oilers have about 15 million to spread around 7-8 players. Cheap contracts like Khaira will help, as well as solid cheap bets on veterans like Jokinen going forward.

It's definitely do-able.

One thing is for sure though - if I'm Chiarelli I am going absolutely all-in at the deadline this year.

As i pointed out using cap friendly they are committed to 58 mill for 10 players... thats money already spent

And a roster will have 23 players... 23-10 is 13 playes

Cap may go up... without the escalator may go down... but oilers do have bonus eligible players and might suffef cap penalties

When you try to say they have 15 mill for 8 players you are doing casual fans a disservice. They might believe you and get angry when its simply not true

The 4 main freeagent players next year are maroon, strome, nurse and benning... lets quickly look at them

Maroon can be comparable to eaves i think... finding success late in his career. Another comparable might be benoit pouliot... so 3-4 mill seams ballpark

Strome will need to be qualified at 2.5... but if he plays with mcdavid you might be looking at a 55 point guy and 3.5-4

If nurse stays healthy... he could easily put up a monster season. He is reaching the age where guys either make it or break it. As far as raw tools go... he has potential to be a top pair guy. Teams usually try to sign this type of player to 6x4 before he gets too good and costs 6 or 7

Meanwhile they like benning alot too and convinced him to join team as an ufa... now if he plays top 4 hes going to get at least 2

Im conservatively saying 12 mill for these 4 guys

12 +58 is 70 mill for 14 guys

The other 9 spots have around 5 mill... even at 600k that wont work

Even if the cap goes up 2-3 mill it wont work

So someone has to go... it wont work to keep all 10 currently signed players... AND WHAT COMES BACK HAS TO COST LESS

Trade proposals that send back salary completely misx the mark

 

[Homesick]

I think you're being optimistic in your numbers that's all.

Nuge might be gone, but I doubt anyone is just going to take his whole 6 million dollar salary, not for what he brings to the table. the Oilers will either have to eat contract, take back a smaller but unsavory contract, or add a major piece as incentive.

Thats what everyone said about Eberle as well

 

[Captain97]

I think you're being optimistic in your numbers that's all.

Nuge might be gone, but I doubt anyone is just going to take his whole 6 million dollar salary, not for what he brings to the table. the Oilers will either have to eat contract, take back a smaller but unsavory contract, or add a major piece as incentive.

Habs will take him

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Thats what everyone said about Eberle as well

Right. ..

And...

Strome at 2.5? A lesser player that was losing his job had to be included?

An argument can be made strome might have value to edmonton but islanders had clearly reached their break point with him

Hopkins will be lucky to fetch a better return unless he plays better for edmonton between here and then

 

[belair]

Anaheim needs to get some youth down the middle to fill in when Kes and Getty lose a couple of steps.

RNH for Theo + small dump?

Anaheim doesn't have Theo anymore. And still no.

 

[Menzinger]

Can see them doing something like what they did with Eberle.

Getting a lesser asset but with a lower caphit as a replacement.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Can see a deal being all camp dump to go with Nuge

RNH
Russell

And gets traded for a star.

 

[NeverForget06]

Will it be just picks and prospects, what do the oilers need in terms of prospects?

forwards preferably. We have a pretty decent d pipeline and will need some entry level contracts to step up into the roster with all the big contracts we have.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

The more I thought about this just now...the more I started to agree. Chicago found a way to pay Kane and Toews their contracts...and keep Hossa, Anisimov.. and now Saad as a replacement for Panarin.

I dunno kind of the same situation but different, I guess.

I dont think its about not be able to keep him, i think its more about not paying a 3rd line center (which he will be in edmonton) 6 million. Unless they more him to wing which i can see but i think center is his better position

 

[KidLine93]

They will keep him for this season and try to make a cup run. He will probably be moved for cap space once McDavids contract kicks in

 

[Sol]

2nd Pick + nick shore.

 

[Fourier]

As i pointed out using cap friendly they are committed to 58 mill for 10 players... thats money already spent

And a roster will have 23 players... 23-10 is 13 playes

Cap may go up... without the escalator may go down... but oilers do have bonus eligible players and might suffef cap penalties

When you try to say they have 15 mill for 8 players you are doing casual fans a disservice. They might believe you and get angry when its simply not true

The 4 main freeagent players next year are maroon, strome, nurse and benning... lets quickly look at them

Maroon can be comparable to eaves i think... finding success late in his career. Another comparable might be benoit pouliot... so 3-4 mill seams ballpark

Strome will need to be qualified at 2.5... but if he plays with mcdavid you might be looking at a 55 point guy and 3.5-4

If nurse stays healthy... he could easily put up a monster season. He is reaching the age where guys either make it or break it. As far as raw tools go... he has potential to be a top pair guy. Teams usually try to sign this type of player to 6x4 before he gets too good and costs 6 or 7

Meanwhile they like benning alot too and convinced him to join team as an ufa... now if he plays top 4 hes going to get at least 2

Im conservatively saying 12 mill for these 4 guys

12 +58 is 70 mill for 14 guys

The other 9 spots have around 5 mill... even at 600k that wont work

Even if the cap goes up 2-3 mill it wont work

So someone has to go... it wont work to keep all 10 currently signed players... AND WHAT COMES BACK HAS TO COST LESS

Trade proposals that send back salary completely misx the mark

You are assuming that the cap basically stays flat which has only happened when one of two things occurred:

1) The worst financial crisis in half a century.
2) A new CBA dropped the players share from 57%-50%.

Last year the cap rose $2M despite a drop in the $CDN that took about $300K off the cap and a reduction in the use of the escalator form 5% to 1.35% that took another $2.7M off the cap.

If you take out currency and the reduction of the escalator the cap would have gone from $69M in 2014-2015 to about $83M. That's an average organic growth of about 6.7% per year.

This year the $CDN is up enough to actually add about $1-1.2M to the cap. The new Adidas deal kicks in adding about $600K to the cap. And the new arena in Detroit opens. Combined these three items would alone add close to $2M to the cap. Addd in organic growth of 5% which is lower than the average over the last three years and the cap is near $81M. Even if the NHLPA cut the escalator back to 0 the cap could still be over $80M.

Here is a possible 22 man roster at $80M.

Maroon ($3.8M) McDavid ($12.5M) Strome ($3.6M)
Caggiula ($2M) Draisaitl ($8.5M) Puljujarvi ($.925M)
Lucic($6M) RNH ($6M) Slepyshev ($1.2M)
Khaira ($.675M) Jokinen ($1.5M) Kassian ($1.9M)
Gambardella ($.725M)

Klefbom ($4.17M) Larsson ($4.17M)
Sekera ($5.5M) Russell ($4M)
Nurse ($2.5M) Benning ($2.3M)
Auvitu ($.8M)

Talbot ($4.167M)
Brossoit ($.8M)

With the Pouliot buyout the cap hit is $79.15M which leaves about $800K in space. This would assume bridges for Nurse and Benning. (And there is virtually no chance they have bonus overages this year by the way. )

For the $80M cap to have at least a 50-50 chance of happening all that would really have to occur would be the $CDN to stay pretty much where it is and the NHLPA keep the escalator at about 1%. (Though Vegas is a wild card because we do not know how they will be feathered in so if they are fully included no one has any clue what the cap might be.)

From here he Oilers have lots of options if the have to cut back because a player has had a break out season. And since no one has a crystal ball to see where the cap will be the best course of action is to play this year out with the strongest roster they can.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I really hope that we can keep him and Maroon but the '17-18 cap and his performance this season will determine his future here. If we do deal him it will be for cap reasons in which case the desired return would be picks and prospects/young NHLers on their ELC's.

 

[McShogun99]

I really hope that we can keep him and Maroon but the '17-18 cap and his performance this season will determine his future here. If we do deal him it will be for cap reasons in which case the desired return would be picks and prospects/young NHLers on their ELC's.

I think Maroon's play next year will price him out of Edmonton plus he will probably be looking to be closer to his son. RNH will most likely be gone no matter how good his season is. 27 million is to much to spend on our top 3 centers.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I think Maroon's play next year will price him out of Edmonton plus he will probably be looking to be closer to his son. RNH will most likely be gone no matter how good his season is. 27 million is to much to spend on our top 3 centers.

I don't see us losing both unless we deal RNH to try and keep Maroon and Patrick decides to move on. Losing both would result in a huge loss of secondary scoring.

 

[triggrman]

Can see them doing something like what they did with Eberle.

Getting a lesser asset but with a lower caphit as a replacement.

Jarnkrok+ for RNH