The Zermanator
In Yzerman We Trust
- Jan 21, 2013
- 3,395
- 1,207
Well, again, no one was arguing to you can't find good players out of the top 6. So I'm not sure who you're debating exactly when you argue that point.
Like I said, you chose 15/500+ selections. Go ahead and name another 15 if you can (doubtful, I'm sure you mentioned the best players first), that's still horrible odds at only 30/500+. You're pretending like odds aren't a thing that exists.
There's reason players get picked later. Late bloomers who improve a lot after the draft exist. But that's just it, the extent of their talent and potential becomes apparent after the draft. So to say 'oh well we can just hope for one of those guys' is unrealistic for two reasons. 1. The Wings scouts can't see into the future, they have the same information as other teams' scouts before the draft, and 2. Like I said, you're going against astronomical odds. So a rebuilding team has to focus on the top end of the draft to get a reasonable chance at a top player. And that's where you're dead wrong when you say the implications are miniscule.
Go look at the average #1 pick and the average # 10 pick. There is a world of difference between the top of the top 10 and the bottom. So finishing last and having the best odds at #1 plus guarantee of no lower than 4th is a world of difference from being at #6 or 7. Just look at leaks of teams' draft boards when they come out, or look at scouting rankings. More often than not, the top 2-3 is pretty well universal, but when you get to the 4-10 range that's when you start seeing a lot of variability in rankings. Why? Because those top 3ish guys are as close to sure things as you can get. It's not uncommon at all for a player chosen in the 5-7 range to bust out.
The implications of losing all of the remaining games is what's miniscule. It makes literally no difference at this point. But the implications of winning too many games now that it doesn't matter is we get pushed further and further back and have to settle for a player with more and more question marks.
