GDT: Devils @ Red Wings - 7:30 EST - FSD: You call this a tank? Edition

[The Zermanator]

Ummm... look at Keith at the same age as Cholo. Letang at the same age as Hronek. Of course if you compare guys with 10+ year NHL careers they will mostly look better than kids that have 40-50 NHL games, try making a fair comparison and asking the question; could we have core players in these kids?
And it's a good thing we're going to be drafting top ~5ish again. And probably will get a high pick in 2020 as well. It takes time you know. Time and luck.

So should we pencil in Cholo and Hronek as bona fide #1 HOF Norris winners/contenders then? Great that Keith and Letang have done what they have, they are in the 0.01%. If you're holding out hope that Cholo/Hronek become anywhere close to that, you've got a 99.99% chance of being wrong.

In my comment you responded to, I had given them a high bar of a #2-3 dman. That's pretty generous considering neither of them have held down even a 2nd pairing spot as of yet. If they become more than that that's great, but the chances of that are so incredibly slim that to actually factor that into a rebuild plan would be really irresponsible.

Your #1oa winning a Cup is also a dream that will likely never be filled. The Cup is hard to win. But we're hockey fans, so we hope for the unlikely.

Seems like a lot of people on these boards subscribe to the idea that you need to draft #1 to contend for a cup. Just food for thought, of the last 30 1st overall picks only 5 have won cups with the team that drafted them. Lecavalier, Fleury, Crosby, Ovechkin, and Kane are the only ones. You have to hit on some star players, but you certainly don't need to draft first for that to happen.

Most #1's haven't won a Cup, true, but most Cups since the lockout have been won by a team with a #1 on it. If #2's and 3's are included, every post lockout Cup has been won with a lottery pick with the exception of Carolina and Detroit.

Anaheim: Pronger (#2) & Niedermayer (#3)
Pittsburgh: Crosby (#1), Malkin (#2), Fleury (#1)
Chicago: Kane (#1)
Boston: Seguin (#2)
LA: Doughty (#2)

The results speak for themselves, if you want a Cup in the cap era you'll pretty much need at least 1 lottery pick. Those were the key players for those Cup runs too, with the exception of Seguin in Boston. Carolina won in the year after a lockout with many rule changes so hard to really analyze their victory. Then Detroit won it primarily off the backs of a top 3 all-time dman and two HOF forwards drafted in late rounds. Not exactly something you can replicate.

EDIT: Also, the lottery players I listed account for 6 Conn Smythes. Out of 13 Cups. So not only do the vast majority of Cup winners post-lockout have at least 1 lottery player on them, nearly half of the Conn Smythes in the post-lockout era have been won by one of those very players. You need them to compete, and you need them to win. Period.

 

[obey86]

So should we pencil in Cholo and Hronek as bona fide #1 HOF Norris winners/contenders then? Great that Keith and Letang have done what they have, they are in the 0.01%. If you're holding out hope that Cholo/Hronek become anywhere close to that, you've got a 99.99% chance of being wrong.

In my comment you responded to, I had given them a high bar of a #2-3 dman. That's pretty generous considering neither of them have held down even a 2nd pairing spot as of yet. If they become more than that that's great, but the chances of that are so incredibly slim that to actually factor that into a rebuild plan would be really irresponsible.




Most #1's haven't won a Cup, true, but most Cups since the lockout have been won by a team with a #1 on it. If #2's and 3's are included, every post lockout Cup has been won with a lottery pick with the exception of Carolina and Detroit.

Anaheim: Pronger (#2) & Niedermayer (#3)
Pittsburgh: Crosby (#1), Malkin (#2), Fleury (#1)
Chicago: Kane (#1)
Boston: Seguin (#2)
LA: Doughty (#2)

The results speak for themselves, if you want a Cup in the cap era you'll pretty much need at least 1 lottery pick. Those were the key players for those Cup runs too, with the exception of Seguin in Boston. Carolina won in the year after a lockout with many rule changes so hard to really analyze their victory. Then Detroit won it primarily off the backs of a top 3 all-time dman and two HOF forwards drafted in late rounds. Not exactly something you can replicate.

EDIT: Also, the lottery players I listed account for 6 Conn Smythes. Out of 13 Cups. So not only do the vast majority of Cup winners post-lockout have at least 1 lottery player on them, nearly half of the Conn Smythes in the post-lockout era have been won by one of those very players. You need them to compete, and you need them to win. Period.

Do you think it's prudent for a team to be so dependent on a stroke of luck to build their roster? Using your rebuilding method, not only does a team have to purposely finish last/almost essentially tank to acquire the best lottery odds, but they also need to be extremely lucky to get the #1 balls as they still only have a 18% chance of doing so, AND they also need to make sure they do all of that in the correct year where the #1 pick is actually a franchise changer. Even if EVERYTHING worked out perfectly for the Wings (pretending past drafts also used the current lottery system) to get the #1 picks in 2017, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000........none of those picks were even franchise changers.

It would certainly be nice if it happened to the Wings and they got that #1 pick and i'm absolutely not going to complain... but it's not something that should even be remotely counted on as probable, likely, or as a necessity for building a winning team. Find other ways to build a good team without putting all your eggs in the "we need this #1 pick or our rebuild is doomed" basket.

 

[NickH8]

Do you think it's prudent for a team to be so dependent on a stroke of luck to build their roster? Using your rebuilding method, not only does a team have to purposely finish last/almost essentially tank to acquire the best lottery odds, but they also need to be extremely lucky to get the #1 balls as they still only have a 18% chance of doing so, AND they also need to make sure they do all of that in the correct year where the #1 pick is actually a franchise changer. Even if EVERYTHING worked out perfectly for the Wings (pretending past drafts also used the current lottery system) to get the #1 picks in 2017, 2014, 2012, 2011, or 2010........none of those picks were even franchise changers.

It would certainly be nice if it happened to the Wings and they got that #1 pick and i'm absolutely not going to complain... but it's not something that should even be remotely counted on as probable, likely, or as a necessity for building a winning team. Find other ways to build a good team without putting all your eggs in the "we need this #1 pick or our rebuild is doomed" basket.

Amen to this

 

[Pavels Dog]

So should we pencil in Cholo and Hronek as bona fide #1 HOF Norris winners/contenders then? Great that Keith and Letang have done what they have, they are in the 0.01%. If you're holding out hope that Cholo/Hronek become anywhere close to that, you've got a 99.99% chance of being wrong.

In my comment you responded to, I had given them a high bar of a #2-3 dman. That's pretty generous considering neither of them have held down even a 2nd pairing spot as of yet. If they become more than that that's great, but the chances of that are so incredibly slim that to actually factor that into a rebuild plan would be really irresponsible.

Of course we shouldn't. Just not a fan of putting ceilings on kids that are 20-21 years old who are showing no signs of hitting a ceiling. There are many other great d-men in the league that weren't so special at that age. Hronek has as many points in this, his d+3 season, as Roman Josi did in his d+5 season. McDonagh had 8 points in the AHL in his d+4. You can find many, many examples of high-end d-men that were not trending as well as Hronek as is at the same age, and Cholo is also doing fine in his development.
We can't assume anything, they could regress or hit a wall. But you are pessimistic with the 0.01% comment, most d-men take time to develop and you don't know at 20-21 what they will be.

You are right about all of this but there is one factor you are overlooking. If you acquire to many good pieces before acquiring your great pieces, you will not be in a position to acquire great pieces. How are we going to draft in the top 2 if we are finishing 7-12th worst?

If we had a Hughes with Larkin and a for sure elite defender on our roster. I would be perfectly happy to see us improving and only drafting 5-7th overall this year. But to me if we don't land a star this or next draft we are heading to failure and will likely be restarting the rebuild in a few years.

I see no reason why the same scenario couldn't happen the other way around? A Hughes comes in and puts the team on his back (together with Larkin) and we climb up the standings just enough to not draft top 5 but not make the playoffs and struggle to find the 1-2 additional pieces we need. Imo that scenario has a higher chance of happening too, because someone like Hughes could come in and instantly be a star player, while players drafted a little later might need at least 1-2 years of development (in the same manner as Zadina, Ras, Larkin etc.). So a #5OA pick this year could hit the NHL at the same time as Lafreniere (20-21 season).

 

[haulinbass]

Of course we shouldn't. Just not a fan of putting ceilings on kids that are 20-21 years old who are showing no signs of hitting a ceiling. There are many other great d-men in the league that weren't so special at that age. Hronek has as many points in this, his d+3 season, as Roman Josi did in his d+5 season. McDonagh had 8 points in the AHL in his d+4. You can find many, many examples of high-end d-men that were not trending as well as Hronek as is at the same age, and Cholo is also doing fine in his development.
We can't assume anything, they could regress or hit a wall. But you are pessimistic with the 0.01% comment, most d-men take time to develop and you don't know at 20-21 what they will be.


I see no reason why the same scenario couldn't happen the other way around? A Hughes comes in and puts the team on his back (together with Larkin) and we climb up the standings just enough to not draft top 5 but not make the playoffs and struggle to find the 1-2 additional pieces we need. Imo that scenario has a higher chance of happening too, because someone like Hughes could come in and instantly be a star player, while players drafted a little later might need at least 1-2 years of development (in the same manner as Zadina, Ras, Larkin etc.). So a #5OA pick this year could hit the NHL at the same time as Lafreniere (20-21 season).

That is absolutely possible but the chances of even getting a player of that caliber are low regardless of how long it takes them to develop.

Elite Prospects - NHL Entry Draft 2009

I could have spent the time to count it all out and come up with exact numbers, but it's just as easy if you spend the 5 minutes and take a look yourself. A good sample would be from 2008-2014 considering anything more recent isn't fair as the players still may not have peaked. What would you you say the odds of getting a star player between picks 3-8th? I would estimate maybe around 45%. Some drafts are very good, others almost nobody in that range.

Now what are the odds in the top 2? Probably around 80%. This is why doing everything possible to draft one of those two players at the very top of the draft is important.

 

[Pavels Dog]

That is absolutely possible but the chances of even getting a player of that caliber are low regardless of how long it takes them to develop.

Elite Prospects - NHL Entry Draft 2009

I could have spent the time to count it all out and come up with exact numbers, but it's just as easy if you spend the 5 minutes and take a look yourself. A good sample would be from 2008-2014 considering anything more recent isn't fair as the players still may not have peaked. What would you you say the odds of getting a star player between picks 3-8th? I would estimate maybe around 45%. Some drafts are very good, others almost nobody in that range.

Now what are the odds in the top 2? Probably around 80%. This is why doing everything possible to draft one of those two players at the very top of the draft is important.

No objections really, but it's hard to do more than we are imo. The good and bad thing is that there is a lottery. So if we keep hanging around in the bottom 10, and especially bottom 5, we will keep having a decent opportunity to move up.

 

[MeLoveRedWings]

Most #1's haven't won a Cup, true, but most Cups since the lockout have been won by a team with a #1 on it. If #2's and 3's are included, every post lockout Cup has been won with a lottery pick with the exception of Carolina and Detroit.

Anaheim: Pronger (#2) & Niedermayer (#3)
Pittsburgh: Crosby (#1), Malkin (#2), Fleury (#1)
Chicago: Kane (#1)
Boston: Seguin (#2)
LA: Doughty (#2)

Anaheim didn't draft either of those players. Seguin and his 7 playoff points and games spent as a healthy scratch probably didn't add much to Boston's cup run. Add Toews to Chicago at #3 and of course Washington had Ovechkin at #1 to strengthen your argument, though.

I would suggest that for every 2004 draft where the clear #1 and #2 contribute to winning a cup, there is a 2006 draft where #3, #4, and #5 do more to contribute to winning cups ,or 2009 draft where no one in the top five has won a cup ten years later. And just speaking for myself, I enjoy watching the team I love go on a four game win streak even if it drops our odds of a lottery pick from 34% to 29%. The kids have been playing well (Hronek, Mantha, Athanasiou, Larkin, Bertuzzi) and that is more encouraging to me in the long run than an extra 5% chance at a top three pick (or 2% better chance at #1 overall) if we were the third worst instead of the fourth worst.

None of those teams made it to the promised land without making a few good trades and hitting on some later picks as well.

I check out these boards and other ones as well. I am usually a lurker. I just find it disappointing that so many Red Wings fans express disapproval when the team shows some signs of life late in the season, because they might end up drafting a few spots lower. I would love to see them win a couple more and go into the off-season feeling good about the future and eager to build on that late season success. I know these are professional athletes who are all going to be very competitive regardless, but it has to be hard to stay motivated if you go into the off-season with a finish like what Buffalo is putting together.

 

[TheOtherOne]

I'm not gonna spend a ton more time on this, but food for thought: where does Larkin go in a redraft? Because if he's a top 3, then well, there's our top 3 draft pick. Because it doesn't really matter where he was actually drafted, it matters how good he is now.

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

I'm not gonna spend a ton more time on this, but food for thought: where does Larkin go in a redraft? Because if he's a top 3, then well, there's our top 3 draft pick. Because it doesn't really matter where he was actually drafted, it matters how good he is now.

Sportsnet had Larkin at 4th in a redraft behind Point, Pasternak and Draisaitl.

 

[Henkka]

Some teams will get success through 1-2 overalls, some teams not.

Insane skill depth is the way to glory.

 

[pz29]

I'm not gonna spend a ton more time on this, but food for thought: where does Larkin go in a redraft? Because if he's a top 3, then well, there's our top 3 draft pick. Because it doesn't really matter where he was actually drafted, it matters how good he is now.

Exactly.

 

[Dotter]

So should we pencil in Cholo and Hronek as bona fide #1 HOF Norris winners/contenders then?

Should we pencil them out and also pencil out McIsaac and Regula and add them to that bottom paring/AHL lifers list as well?

Personally, I don't think the future of Detroit's blue line looks that bleak to me. Of course I wouldn't bet the farm that they'll become perennial contenders and win several cups in the next decade or two... But nobody was betting the farm on the Keith's and Letang's at 21 years old, either.

Wings could pick Byram this draft to bolster the future blue line even more. And pick Antti Tuomisto (D) in the 7th who turns out to be our #1 future HHOF blue-liner that makes even the great Nick Lidstrom blush.