GDT: Devils @ Red Wings - 7:30 EST - FSD: You call this a tank? Edition

haulinbass

Registered User
Mar 6, 2014
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Right. After Hughes and Kakko the next 8 picks are wide open anyways. Obviously I'd love to get lucky and win the lottery, but at this point picking 5th as opposed to 3rd isn't really a big deal. You have the big 2 and then a group of really good players. But nobody out of Cozens, Byram, Turcotte, Podkolzin, Zegras, Boldy, Dach, Krebs are really separating themselves from the rest.

At this point, I'm really hoping we get Turcotte or Byram.

If we pass one more team our highest odds of a pick are 6th and 7th.

It kind of is a big deal. There will certainly be clear cut guys inside the top 5.

You don't want to go through seasons like this and miss a top pick. Do you guys really think he have the elite talent in our system to win a cup in the future? I think we are shaping up for a potential disaster by getting enough players who are going to drag this team to the middle of the pack but not good enough to do any real damage in the playoffs. I would rather we capitalize while we can and give this team the highest talent possible. I don't want to be in a situation where we are starting another rebuild in 5 years because we don't have those elite players. The reality is we need roughly 3 forwards who are as good as Larkin or better. So far we only have one of those guys being Larkin himself. That is not even considering D or goaltending. As I said, climbing the standings without finding that type of potential will likely be a mistake.
 

TheOtherOne

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Jan 2, 2010
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Also, it's crazy that we just added a bunch of brand new forwards- Hirose, Kuffner, Puempel, Frk... and we still didn't have enough to fill 4 lines...
 

TheOtherOne

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Jan 2, 2010
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If we pass one more team our highest odds of a pick are 6th and 7th.

It kind of is a big deal. There will certainly be clear cut guys inside the top 5.

You don't want to go through seasons like this and miss a top pick. Do you guys really think he have the elite talent in our system to win a cup in the future? I think we are shaping up for a potential disaster by getting enough players who are going to drag this team to the middle of the pack but not good enough to do any real damage in the playoffs. I would rather we capitalize while we can and give this team the highest talent possible. I don't want to be in a situation where we are starting another rebuild in 5 years because we don't have those elite players. The reality is we need roughly 3 forwards who are as good as Larkin or better. So far we only have one of those guys being Larkin himself. That is not even considering D or goaltending. As I said, climbing the standings without finding that type of potential will likely be a mistake.
I want to do damage in the playoffs on the backs of Larkin, AA, Hronek, and Cholowski, and be proud of my team and brag because we did it all without any top 5 draft picks.
 

obey86

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Jun 9, 2009
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14 games in March for Athanasiou, all of which have been at center (I believe this was the point he switched full time).

He has produced...
8 goals, 3 assists in around 19 minutes of ice time. Winning consistently over half his face offs. It’s time to start viewing him as the 2C of the future.

Yes, we could absolutely replace him with a more complete center, but he’s actually doing it at a high level right now, and he shouldn’t relinquish it unless someone is going to pry it out of his grip.

If they draft a center top 5 this year, the AA at center experiment is likely over.
 

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
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If they draft a center top 5 this year, the AA at center experiment is likely over.

I feel that’s not likely. If they draft a center this year, they are either not NHL ready, or will get their first taste on the wing. Same way Larkin and Athanasiou and Rasmussen have all entered the league. That seems to be the current organizational philosophy for introducing rookie centers.

Don’t disagree down the road. Best case scenario is we end up with someone more suited for the responsibility and let Athanasiou do what he does best, and that’s drive offensive opportunity
 

NickH8

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Jul 3, 2015
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Bertuzzi is the third leading scorer on the team

Also, his +/- is absurdly good relative to everyone else.
In today's age of small, offensive defensemen physical defensive wingers are going to be important. I'm so glad we've got Bertuzzi.
 
Apr 14, 2009
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I’m often actively looking for reasons to change my mind on prospects because it means there’s a need or opportunity in the available prospects. Presently I’m really looking at Zegras because of how dynamic his skill is as a playmaker. It’s the one thing I think we don’t really have is that guy who can put up 50+ assists consistently and be the man truly QBing the power play from the half wall.

Still have Turcotte and Byram at the top of the second group, but everybody outside of the top 4 is constantly evolving.

Yeah Zegras is good too, but Turcotte has far better numbers since joining USDP. 23 goals in 30 games is ridiculous, to go along with 30 assists. I know numbers aren't everything, but I think Turcotte has star potential That entire team is ridiculous. Caufield is almost scoring at a goal/game pace, and he's not even being discussed as a top 10 pick (although I wouldn't be shocked if he climbs into it).
 
Apr 14, 2009
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If we pass one more team our highest odds of a pick are 6th and 7th.

It kind of is a big deal. There will certainly be clear cut guys inside the top 5.

You don't want to go through seasons like this and miss a top pick. Do you guys really think he have the elite talent in our system to win a cup in the future? I think we are shaping up for a potential disaster by getting enough players who are going to drag this team to the middle of the pack but not good enough to do any real damage in the playoffs. I would rather we capitalize while we can and give this team the highest talent possible. I don't want to be in a situation where we are starting another rebuild in 5 years because we don't have those elite players. The reality is we need roughly 3 forwards who are as good as Larkin or better. So far we only have one of those guys being Larkin himself. That is not even considering D or goaltending. As I said, climbing the standings without finding that type of potential will likely be a mistake.

Do you follow the draft prospects though? I 100% agree with what you are saying, but this year there isn't much separating 3-10. I honestly change my top 10 daily. Hughes and Kakko are undisputedly 1 and 2, but after them you can make an argument for any of the next 5-8 guys.

And also, you can finish the year in last place by 30 points, and still mathematically you are most likely to pick at 4. The new lottery system is a crapshoot anyways. Look at the last 3 lotteries, finishing in the bottom 3 barely means you pick in the top 3. A whopping 22% of teams that finished in the bottom 3 actually picked in the top 3.
 

Dotter

THE ATHLETIC IS GARBAGE
Jul 2, 2014
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If we pass one more team our highest odds of a pick are 6th and 7th.

It kind of is a big deal. There will certainly be clear cut guys inside the top 5.

You don't want to go through seasons like this and miss a top pick. Do you guys really think he have the elite talent in our system to win a cup in the future? I think we are shaping up for a potential disaster by getting enough players who are going to drag this team to the middle of the pack but not good enough to do any real damage in the playoffs. I would rather we capitalize while we can and give this team the highest talent possible. I don't want to be in a situation where we are starting another rebuild in 5 years because we don't have those elite players. The reality is we need roughly 3 forwards who are as good as Larkin or better. So far we only have one of those guys being Larkin himself. That is not even considering D or goaltending. As I said, climbing the standings without finding that type of potential will likely be a mistake.

Can't break their legs to make them play bad. The kids are stepping up and having fun. I mean they even pulled the best goalie and put in the struggling goalie and couldn't lose. Red Wings are icing an AHL team right now.
 
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Flowah

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Nov 30, 2009
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He oozes talent

It’s just a matter of time
I'm not calling him a bust. All I'm saying is that I saw his first few games and I saw Hughes' first game and one of them was far more impressive out of the gate and a defenseman to boot.

I'm willing to give Zadina a couple years.
 

ArGarBarGar

What do we want!? Unfair!
Sep 8, 2008
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You can't realistically project defensemen and forwards of the same draft class this early. No need to be the first right person in this case.
 
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Yooper906

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Jul 1, 2016
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It’s inevitable (or we hope) with the roster we have, that we were going to play better over time. Younger players, still learning the game. We’re hoping they progress, and play with more confidence. If the results of that, means a lower pick in the draft, that’s a good trade off. I’m much more comfortable planning for the future with the way we’re ending this season, than if we would have ended up with the best odds for the top pick.
 

haulinbass

Registered User
Mar 6, 2014
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I want to do damage in the playoffs on the backs of Larkin, AA, Hronek, and Cholowski, and be proud of my team and brag because we did it all without any top 5 draft picks.

That is a dream that will likely never be fulfilled.

There is a good chance Mantha, AA and Zadina never end up being A grade players. I'm not saying its impossible for a guy like Mantha or AA to to hit that level but at 24 years old they haven't showed enough ability to be that caliber of player. Of course there are guys that do progress later in their careers, Wheeler being one of the best current examples, but it isn't very common. Obviously at 24 years old they are still young and will still surely make improvements, but its unlikely they become premium players who can carry a line. The next point is, players who are less than elite usually have a shorter prime window before regression considering their contributions don't allow for it. You take an 85 point player and he becomes a 70 point player by 30 years old, your pretty happy still. Take a 55 point guy and by 30 years old he drops to 40 points, now he is a borderline 2nd liner. Essentially what we have here are Nyquist and Tatar caliber players. Obviously they all play the games differently but the impact overall is pretty similar. We already tried to be a contender with Nyquist and the Tatars as our 2nd and 3rd best forwards. It didn't work, so now that we have slightly younger versions of the same caliber of player and you expect a winning team? Mantha and AA are very good players to compliment star players. They aren't going to carry your team to a Stanley Cup final on their own backs. You got to have the guys who can do that. If you don't got the forwards then you need to have a Subban, Josi, Ellis and Ekholm on D. Even then, Nashville has Johanson and Forsberg who are both as good or better than our best player in Larkin. There aren't any teams in this league that have a shot of winning a cup that are relying on guys of Mantha and AA's caliber. You can look at every roster in the league, you can look at progression trends of every player drafted for the past 20 years. Its just the reality. It's very unlikely to find good players late in the draft. You have to land those top picks and there is no way around it. Sometimes tanking still doesn't work and and the team has to restart their already long rebuild. But there aren't any other alternatives besides getting extremely lucky.

Don't get me wrong, I love AA and Mantha. But we need guys ahead of them in the lineup. Give me 3 Larkins and I'll take AA and Mantha as my 4th and 5th best forwards. Give me a prime Crosby/Malkin, Toews/Kane or Datsyuk/Zetterberg and I'll take them as my 3rd and 4th best forwards.

Wheeler/Scheifele/Connor/Laine/Ehlers
Mackinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog

Think Tampa Bay, Boston, Calgary, Toronto, etc. The caliber of talent all of these teams in the league have. You really think Mantha and AA are comparable to the talent these teams have? Why because we just jumped from 2nd worst to 4th worst in the NHL?


Do you follow the draft prospects though? I 100% agree with what you are saying, but this year there isn't much separating 3-10. I honestly change my top 10 daily. Hughes and Kakko are undisputedly 1 and 2, but after them you can make an argument for any of the next 5-8 guys.

And also, you can finish the year in last place by 30 points, and still mathematically you are most likely to pick at 4. The new lottery system is a crapshoot anyways. Look at the last 3 lotteries, finishing in the bottom 3 barely means you pick in the top 3. A whopping 22% of teams that finished in the bottom 3 actually picked in the top 3.

Following prospects, young NHL players and rebuilding teams is what I spend most of my free time doing.

We will see how the draft shapes up. A lot changes as draft day approaches. I follow along all year but don't get crazy until about 6-8 weeks out at which point I will watch every shift-by-shift and footage available to the public within roughly the top 20 and certain players of interest outside of that. I would rather have options than to be at the tail end of the talent regardless. You don't want to be this bad all year and picking up the leftovers on the 2nd tier of talent considering your analysis of the pool is correct. On top of that, I want to mathematically have the highest odds at 1 or 2 possible. Not sure what is debatable about that really. So I stand by my original statement that losing is important.
 
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Ezekial

Cheap Pizza, Bad Hockey
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Nov 22, 2015
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Buddy, Blake Wheeler was 25 when he had his first 60 point season. Bert is outscoring his pace at his age, when Wheeler was 23 he had 38 in 82.

(edit: tbh I had Mantha in mind when posting, I love Bert but he'll never be Blake Wheeler)
 
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