I want to do damage in the playoffs on the backs of Larkin, AA, Hronek, and Cholowski, and be proud of my team and brag because we did it all without any top 5 draft picks.
That is a dream that will likely never be fulfilled.
There is a good chance Mantha, AA and Zadina never end up being A grade players. I'm not saying its impossible for a guy like Mantha or AA to to hit that level but at 24 years old they haven't showed enough ability to be that caliber of player. Of course there are guys that do progress later in their careers, Wheeler being one of the best current examples, but it isn't very common. Obviously at 24 years old they are still young and will still surely make improvements, but its unlikely they become premium players who can carry a line. The next point is, players who are less than elite usually have a shorter prime window before regression considering their contributions don't allow for it. You take an 85 point player and he becomes a 70 point player by 30 years old, your pretty happy still. Take a 55 point guy and by 30 years old he drops to 40 points, now he is a borderline 2nd liner. Essentially what we have here are Nyquist and Tatar caliber players. Obviously they all play the games differently but the impact overall is pretty similar. We already tried to be a contender with Nyquist and the Tatars as our 2nd and 3rd best forwards. It didn't work, so now that we have slightly younger versions of the same caliber of player and you expect a winning team? Mantha and AA are very good players to compliment star players. They aren't going to carry your team to a Stanley Cup final on their own backs. You got to have the guys who can do that. If you don't got the forwards then you need to have a Subban, Josi, Ellis and Ekholm on D. Even then, Nashville has Johanson and Forsberg who are both as good or better than our best player in Larkin. There aren't any teams in this league that have a shot of winning a cup that are relying on guys of Mantha and AA's caliber. You can look at every roster in the league, you can look at progression trends of every player drafted for the past 20 years. Its just the reality. It's very unlikely to find good players late in the draft. You have to land those top picks and there is no way around it. Sometimes tanking still doesn't work and and the team has to restart their already long rebuild. But there aren't any other alternatives besides getting extremely lucky.
Don't get me wrong, I love AA and Mantha. But we need guys ahead of them in the lineup. Give me 3 Larkins and I'll take AA and Mantha as my 4th and 5th best forwards. Give me a prime Crosby/Malkin, Toews/Kane or Datsyuk/Zetterberg and I'll take them as my 3rd and 4th best forwards.
Wheeler/Scheifele/Connor/Laine/Ehlers
Mackinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog
Think Tampa Bay, Boston, Calgary, Toronto, etc. The caliber of talent all of these teams in the league have. You really think Mantha and AA are comparable to the talent these teams have? Why because we just jumped from 2nd worst to 4th worst in the NHL?
Do you follow the draft prospects though? I 100% agree with what you are saying, but this year there isn't much separating 3-10. I honestly change my top 10 daily. Hughes and Kakko are undisputedly 1 and 2, but after them you can make an argument for any of the next 5-8 guys.
And also, you can finish the year in last place by 30 points, and still mathematically you are most likely to pick at 4. The new lottery system is a crapshoot anyways. Look at the last 3 lotteries, finishing in the bottom 3 barely means you pick in the top 3. A whopping 22% of teams that finished in the bottom 3 actually picked in the top 3.
Following prospects, young NHL players and rebuilding teams is what I spend most of my free time doing.
We will see how the draft shapes up. A lot changes as draft day approaches. I follow along all year but don't get crazy until about 6-8 weeks out at which point I will watch every shift-by-shift and footage available to the public within roughly the top 20 and certain players of interest outside of that. I would rather have options than to be at the tail end of the talent regardless. You don't want to be this bad all year and picking up the leftovers on the 2nd tier of talent considering your analysis of the pool is correct. On top of that, I want to mathematically have the highest odds at 1 or 2 possible. Not sure what is debatable about that really. So I stand by my original statement that losing is important.