GDT: Devils @ Red Wings - 7:30 EST - FSD: You call this a tank? Edition

[The Zermanator]

Have to agree with haulinbass here.

Larkin is a building block type player, no question there. But as good as AA reaching 30 goals has been (and his season in general), he's only got 50 points. That's great and all, but still a Nyquist level player. Hronek and Cholowski, though promising, have not proven to be beyond top 4 2nd pair types.

That's supposed to do damage in the playoffs? If you consider the makeup of recent Cup winners (or any, really) that's mighty optimistic. Even if those guys hit it out of the park development-wise and AA becomes a 60-70 pt guy and both Hronek and Cholowski become a #2-3, which I think are fair high bars for all of them, that still leaves the most crucial players missing. The stars.

It's good to have Kessel, but you need Crosby and Malkin (especially) if you want the Cup. You need several stars, bottom line. We have one bona fide star in Larkin, remains to be seen if Zadina has that in him. Need a couple more, at least.

Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang
Washington: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Carslon, Holtby
Chicago: Kane, Keith, Hossa, Toews, Seabrook
Detroit: Larkin, Athanasiou, Hronek, Cholowski

Ummmm, one of these things is not like the others...

That is why I've been cheering for as many losses as possible this season, having the best lottery odds and no worse than a 4th pick along with Karlsson hitting FA provides a real opportunity to assemble a team that can rival those.

Larkin, Karlsson, Lottery/4th 2019 1st, Zadina (?)

Now it's actually starting to look like something you can build a team that will do damage around. Especially if that 2019 is Hughes or Kaako. It's still possible, Karlsson remains unsigned but it's looking like we may need a lot more lottery luck than it seemed a few weeks ago to make that a reality.

People are listing all these names like 'Ohh Turcotte/Cozens/Zegras/Podkolzin/Byram/Dach/Krebs all look so good, we'll get a great player either way!'. But think of how extraordinary it would be if they all hit their potential. It would be extraordinary because that's never happened, and it won't now. Several of these players will not reach their perceived potential. Some may bust out entirely. Hughes and Kaako, on the other hand, are about as close to sure things as you can get.

Ultimately that's the value in tanking, it gives you the best odds at a sure thing, somebody you can just pencil in as part of your budding core. Rather than more questions and more uncertainty with more development time.

Buddy, Blake Wheeler was 25 when he had his first 60 point season. Bert is outscoring his pace at his age, when Wheeler was 23 he had 38 in 82.

(edit: tbh I had Mantha in mind when posting, I love Bert but he'll never be Blake Wheeler)

Should we just pencil him in as a PPG guy now then?

 

[obey86]

Have to agree with haulinbass here.

Larkin is a building block type player, no question there. But as good as AA reaching 30 goals has been (and his season in general), he's only got 50 points. That's great and all, but still a Nyquist level player. Hronek and Cholowski, though promising, have not proven to be beyond top 4 2nd pair types.

That's supposed to do damage in the playoffs? If you consider the makeup of recent Cup winners (or any, really) that's mighty optimistic. Even if those guys hit it out of the park development-wise and AA becomes a 60-70 pt guy and both Hronek and Cholowski become a #2-3, which I think are fair high bars for all of them, that still leaves the most crucial players missing. The stars.

It's good to have Kessel, but you need Crosby and Malkin (especially) if you want the Cup. You need several stars, bottom line. We have one bona fide star in Larkin, remains to be seen if Zadina has that in him. Need a couple more, at least.

Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang
Washington: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Carslon, Holtby
Chicago: Kane, Keith, Hossa, Toews, Seabrook
Detroit: Larkin, Athanasiou, Hronek, Cholowski

Ummmm, one of these things is not like the others...

That is why I've been cheering for as many losses as possible this season, having the best lottery odds and no worse than a 4th pick along with Karlsson hitting FA provides a real opportunity to assemble a team that can rival those.

Larkin, Karlsson, Lottery/4th 2019 1st, Zadina (?)

Now it's actually starting to look like something you can build a team that will do damage around. Especially if that 2019 is Hughes or Kaako. It's still possible, Karlsson remains unsigned but it's looking like we may need a lot more lottery luck than it seemed a few weeks ago to make that a reality.

People are listing all these names like 'Ohh Turcotte/Cozens/Zegras/Podkolzin/Byram/Dach/Krebs all look so good, we'll get a great player either way!'. But think of how extraordinary it would be if they all hit their potential. It would be extraordinary because that's never happened, and it won't now. Several of these players will not reach their perceived potential. Some may bust out entirely. Hughes and Kaako, on the other hand, are about as close to sure things as you can get.

Ultimately that's the value in tanking, it gives you the best odds at a sure thing, somebody you can just pencil in as part of your budding core. Rather than more questions and more uncertainty with more development time.



Should we just pencil him in as a PPG guy now then?

As the overall team gets better, the point totals of players like AA or Mantha will get progressively better.

 

[turkleton85]

mantha-larkin-bert looks like a good 1st line in the NHL to me, this should be our 1st line next season.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Have to agree with haulinbass here.

Larkin is a building block type player, no question there. But as good as AA reaching 30 goals has been (and his season in general), he's only got 50 points. That's great and all, but still a Nyquist level player. Hronek and Cholowski, though promising, have not proven to be beyond top 4 2nd pair types.

That's supposed to do damage in the playoffs? If you consider the makeup of recent Cup winners (or any, really) that's mighty optimistic. Even if those guys hit it out of the park development-wise and AA becomes a 60-70 pt guy and both Hronek and Cholowski become a #2-3, which I think are fair high bars for all of them, that still leaves the most crucial players missing. The stars.

It's good to have Kessel, but you need Crosby and Malkin (especially) if you want the Cup. You need several stars, bottom line. We have one bona fide star in Larkin, remains to be seen if Zadina has that in him. Need a couple more, at least.

Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang
Washington: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Carslon, Holtby
Chicago: Kane, Keith, Hossa, Toews, Seabrook
Detroit: Larkin, Athanasiou, Hronek, Cholowski

Ummmm, one of these things is not like the others...

Ummm... look at Keith at the same age as Cholo. Letang at the same age as Hronek. Of course if you compare guys with 10+ year NHL careers they will mostly look better than kids that have 40-50 NHL games, try making a fair comparison and asking the question; could we have core players in these kids?
And it's a good thing we're going to be drafting top ~5ish again. And probably will get a high pick in 2020 as well. It takes time you know. Time and luck.

 

[Flowah]

Buddy, Blake Wheeler was 25 when he had his first 60 point season. Bert is outscoring his pace at his age, when Wheeler was 23 he had 38 in 82.

(edit: tbh I had Mantha in mind when posting, I love Bert but he'll never be Blake Wheeler)

Of course it happens. There's been thousands of people drafted and played in the NHL.

But you know it's super rare, right?

"It's possible!" is a bad argument.

And it's a good thing we're going to be drafting top ~5ish again.

Historically, a #5 and a #1,2,3 produce vastly different players. 1, 2, 3 are elite material. 5 is "very good" but not elite. We need elite. You see that again with this draft where it's all about the top 2 picks. Are there good players in the rest of the top 10? I'm sure. But they aren't projected to be near the same as the top2. That's almost always the case. So drafting top5 again, but not top2, isn't likely to add the pieces the team needs.

 

[TheOtherOne]

That is a dream that will likely never be fulfilled.

Your #1oa winning a Cup is also a dream that will likely never be filled. The Cup is hard to win. But we're hockey fans, so we hope for the unlikely.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Historically, a #5 and a #1,2,3 produce vastly different players. 1, 2, 3 are elite material. 5 is "very good" but not elite. We need elite. You see that again with this draft where it's all about the top 2 picks. Are there good players in the rest of the top 10? I'm sure. But they aren't projected to be near the same as the top2. That's almost always the case. So drafting top5 again, but not top2, isn't likely to add the pieces the team needs.

When we’ve drafted top 10 all of two times in 3 decades, I don’t think we should be too upset if we end up with #5OA for example. It’d still be our highest pick in ages and a major addition and another important step in the rebuilding process.

 

[lomekian]

Goes to show how much a consistently good offensive defenseman would do for this team.

Also shows how much difference a playmaking PP specialist centre and the arrival of Zadina might make to this team.

 

[Flowah]

When we’ve drafted top 10 all of two times in 3 decades, I don’t think we should be too upset if we end up with #5OA for example. It’d still be our highest pick in ages and a major addition and another important step in the rebuilding process.

I'll be upset if we our pick drops because of the random lottery crap because it'll delay our rebuild because statistically we're not likely to find the player we need at #5.

"It's better than what we've had in the past!" Well yeah. Because until a couple years ago we made the playoffs for 25 straight years. That's... how it works. Not sure that how means I should be happy with #5 now.

It's simple. I much prefer to compress pain into shorter time periods and I much prefer watching the Red Wings as contenders. The regular season is more enjoyable and so are the playoffs when you're an actual contender. I always cheer for the thing that gets the Wings closer, in probability, to that end. A #5 gets us closer, but so would a #30. Any draft pick "gets you closer." Some just get you closer than others.

 

[lomekian]

mantha-larkin-bert looks like a good 1st line in the NHL to me, this should be our 1st line next season.

I agree. I also agree with the counter point that for us to be a real contender, longer term that should be our 2nd line OR we should have a second as line of similar calibre backing it up.

 

[raymond23]

The duo of Larkin and Bertuzzi is so f***ing beautiful on all levels.

 

[obey86]

I agree. I also agree with the counter point that for us to be a real contender, longer term that should be our 2nd line OR we should have a second as line of similar calibre backing it up.

I think you can win with two lines of that caliber, as long as the defense is improved.

 

[masta8]

I’m so proud of AA the fact he reached 30 goals. I was one of the few on this board who stuck by him during the holdout because his speed and skill was going to lead to a season like this. Fact 27 of them were ES is a good indication his goal numbers will likely go up with improved players. Great sign to come we have 2 30 goal scorers who are under 25 still. Positive sign.

 

[masta8]

Also, nice touch calling up Chelios’s son for the game. Loved in the first when he got into it with wood. Like father like son hah

 

[raymond23]

I’m so proud of AA the fact he reached 30 goals. I was one of the few on this board who stuck by him during the holdout because his speed and skill was going to lead to a season like this. Fact 27 of them were ES is a good indication his goal numbers will likely go up with improved players. Great sign to come we have 2 30 goal scorers who are under 25 still. Positive sign.

I was a doubter and I couldn't be happier for the kid either. Even outside of his 30 goals, he is a much better player this year.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I'll be upset if we our pick drops because of the random lottery crap because it'll delay our rebuild because statistically we're not likely to find the player we need at #5.

"It's better than what we've had in the past!" Well yeah. Because until a couple years ago we made the playoffs for 25 straight years. That's... how it works. Not sure that how means I should be happy with #5 now.

It's simple. I much prefer to compress pain into shorter time periods and I much prefer watching the Red Wings as contenders. The regular season is more enjoyable and so are the playoffs when you're an actual contender. I always cheer for the thing that gets the Wings closer, in probability, to that end. A #5 gets us closer, but so would a #30. Any draft pick "gets you closer." Some just get you closer than others.

I guess if you think about it in terms of "THE player we need". If you look at it like we need players, multiple, then at #5 we can definitely get a player we need. A high-end defense prospect like Byram? Would be a huge addition. We're also a low scoring team and getting another high-end forward prospect to join Zadina? Even if it's not Hughes it would be a big deal.
The reason we should be pretty happy even with a pick like #5OA is because most successful rebuilds aren't just a #1OA, they are built through multiple top ~10 picks and most of the time a steal or two later in the draft. Even by landing Hughes we would still need to add more pieces, we'd still need to allow time for kids to develop. Would it take longer if we for example drafted Byram this year and next year got Lafreniere? I really don't know.
It's not like I wouldn't be f*cking ecstatic if we won the lottery, but even if we had the best odds I would know that 18% isn't much to pin all your hopes on. Even the % to simply fall to #2OA is too low to really feel confident about. Better to think about the rebuild as a process where every step matters. We're not yet at the point where any pick outside the top 3 is a waste of time, because we need a whole lot of talent. Not just one player.

 

[Ezekial]

Of course it happens. There's been thousands of people drafted and played in the NHL.

But you know it's super rare, right?

"It's possible!" is a bad argument.

I think Mantha could turn it on next year and be that same type of force. I watch him take over games in short spurts many nights. When he's skating hard with the puck in his stick and making a power move to the goal he's extremely intimidating.
It's not all that rare to see bigger guys take till 25 to get in a groove. But at the same time I was pretty intoxicated last evening.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

We 100% need at least two more high high impact level players.

Not sure whether we will ever immediately draft said player(1st overall kind of kid) or get lucky and develop one.

But it is nice to see that kids we drafted well into the draft are having such noticeable impacts. We clearly are doing alot right.

 

[haulinbass]

Your #1oa winning a Cup is also a dream that will likely never be filled. The Cup is hard to win. But we're hockey fans, so we hope for the unlikely.

Yes it is very unlikely. That is why I want to draft the best players possible and give ourselves the best chances. There is no guarantee to win a cup if you got a handful of the top players in the NHL on your team. It just goes to shows ya how silly it is to think you can do it with AA and Mantha being your top forwards.

 

[haulinbass]

I guess if you think about it in terms of "THE player we need". If you look at it like we need players, multiple, then at #5 we can definitely get a player we need. A high-end defense prospect like Byram? Would be a huge addition. We're also a low scoring team and getting another high-end forward prospect to join Zadina? Even if it's not Hughes it would be a big deal.
The reason we should be pretty happy even with a pick like #5OA is because most successful rebuilds aren't just a #1OA, they are built through multiple top ~10 picks and most of the time a steal or two later in the draft. Even by landing Hughes we would still need to add more pieces, we'd still need to allow time for kids to develop. Would it take longer if we for example drafted Byram this year and next year got Lafreniere? I really don't know.
It's not like I wouldn't be f*cking ecstatic if we won the lottery, but even if we had the best odds I would know that 18% isn't much to pin all your hopes on. Even the % to simply fall to #2OA is too low to really feel confident about. Better to think about the rebuild as a process where every step matters. We're not yet at the point where any pick outside the top 3 is a waste of time, because we need a whole lot of talent. Not just one player.

You are right about all of this but there is one factor you are overlooking. If you acquire to many good pieces before acquiring your great pieces, you will not be in a position to acquire great pieces. How are we going to draft in the top 2 if we are finishing 7-12th worst?

If we had a Hughes with Larkin and a for sure elite defender on our roster. I would be perfectly happy to see us improving and only drafting 5-7th overall this year. But to me if we don't land a star this or next draft we are heading to failure and will likely be restarting the rebuild in a few years.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Yes it is very unlikely. That is why I want to draft the best players possible and give ourselves the best chances. There is no guarantee to win a cup if you got a handful of the top players in the NHL on your team. It just goes to shows ya how silly it is to think you can do it with AA and Mantha being your top forwards.

Just goes to show ya how awesome it'll be when it happens.

 

[MeLoveRedWings]

Seems like a lot of people on these boards subscribe to the idea that you need to draft #1 to contend for a cup. Just food for thought, of the last 30 1st overall picks only 5 have won cups with the team that drafted them. Lecavalier, Fleury, Crosby, Ovechkin, and Kane are the only ones. You have to hit on some star players, but you certainly don't need to draft first for that to happen.

 

[TheMule93]

Seems like a lot of people on these boards subscribe to the idea that you need to draft #1 to contend for a cup. Just food for thought, of the last 30 1st overall picks only 5 have won cups with the team that drafted them. Lecavalier, Fleury, Crosby, Ovechkin, and Kane are the only ones. You have to hit on some star players, but you certainly don't need to draft first for that to happen.

thanks for clearing that up, im sure there are a lot of people on here that believe you absualtely need a #1 pick to win a cup. Its not like we've ever done it without a #1 pick.

very good contribution, addressing an argument that clearly several people have made

 

[obey86]

You are right about all of this but there is one factor you are overlooking. If you acquire to many good pieces before acquiring your great pieces, you will not be in a position to acquire great pieces. How are we going to draft in the top 2 if we are finishing 7-12th worst?

If we had a Hughes with Larkin and a for sure elite defender on our roster. I would be perfectly happy to see us improving and only drafting 5-7th overall this year. But to me if we don't land a star this or next draft we are heading to failure and will likely be restarting the rebuild in a few years.

So if the Wings got lucky, drafted Hughes #1, he was as good as advertised right away and therefore the Wings were a wild card bubble team moving forward.....you would be upset basically because they didn't have an elite defender yet? If that hypothetically happened, would you rather the Wings pick a worse player instead so they don't become as good as fast?

 

[haulinbass]

So if the Wings got lucky, drafted Hughes #1, he was as good as advertised right away and therefore the Wings were a wild card bubble team moving forward.....you would be upset basically because they didn't have an elite defender yet? If that hypothetically happened, would you rather the Wings pick a worse player instead so they don't become as good as fast?

No. Most top defenders in the league aren't coming from top 5 picks. Defenders are much harder than forwards to evaluate at 16-18 years old. Having multiple 2nd round picks and and possibly utilizing mid round 1sts in the future is ideal. I think Hronek and Cholo is a very good start and from here we will need a little bit of luck. However, we need to snag that gamebreaking forward while our window of opportunity is here. Is Hughes going to be a center in the NHL, I don't know yet. Is he going to walk right into the NHL and dominate, I don't think so. But he will certainly be an A grade first line player in his career. Could Zadina? Maybe, but its significantly less likely. Hughes is as close to a guarantee as you can expect considering the difficulties of evaluating 18 year old professional potential.

There is no argument that we need to be doing everything we can to have the highest chance to draft the best possible player right now. Luck is going to play a factor no matter what route you take, but we need to be increasing the odds of success as much as possible. Not sure why this is still being debated. You want a 65% chance of future success or a 15% chance?